Rookies 2021 - Biggest Surprise

[Krabs]

According to the Tigers' website Rodgers ran a 4.51.

That's pretty fast. The more important thing is the route running ability. If his route running transfers over to the NFL 4.51 is plenty fast. He's no Eric Stokes though.

 

[PackFan2]

Shemar Jean Charles (SJC) is also my 2021 draft pick that is going to surprise everyone. GB scouts were pounding the table of the kid. I just finished watching a 1974 draft recap. It reminded me of Steelers HOF WR Lynn Swann and John Stallworth situation.

Not saying Stokes or SJC are equal to Swann or Stallworth, but the situation surely does. Swann came from a big school, known competition, big time player. Stallworth was playing at a HBCU, was an All-Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference receiver. Heck I can't even find Stallworth's college stats. The Steelers staff and scouts wanted to draft Stallworth early, 1st round even. After some convincing from the scouts', Art Rooney, gave in and they picked up Stallworth in the 4th.

I wonder which Packer scout it was who scouted SJC and got in Gutey's ear about?
I digress, getting back to surprise rookie. I think SJC is very scrappy and tough son ofa gun. He only allowed 30% completion rate, thats where he scrappiness comes in. SJC has good feel/awareness as to where the ball will be and knocks it. I'm really excited about him, especially vs Josh Jackson, Hollman.

 

[Heyjoe4]

When it comes to offensive line, they deserve every bit of the benefit of the doubt.

Since TT took over, the Packers are batting like .700 on OL they take in the top 5 rounds (allowing that a "hit" in the 5th round is a lower standard than in the 1st round).

That's the sort of thing that makes me shake my head when heavy analytics guys say that the draft is a pure crap-shoot with minimal skill involved.

I think Linsley was a 5th round pick out of OSU. Pretty good pick, eh? The only big miss I can think of is Sprigges, a 2nd rounder. Otherwise GB has been stellar drafting O linemen. And Turner proved to be a good pick in FA as well, just a lot more expensive.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think Linsley was a 5th round pick out of OSU. Pretty good pick, eh? The only big miss I can think of is Sprigges, a 2nd rounder.

Yeah Spriggs just never improved. Reminds me of an OL version of Burks. Don’t forget Sherrod there day 1. I think pretty much a miss considering he never played past 4 seasons with us and was never really very good when he was out there. He was a very similar selection to Spriggs who cost us multiple selections and was an early day 2 selection.

We seem to do pretty good 50% of the time at OL on day 3 draft. Probably why we tripled/doubled down on OL day 3 the last couple drafts, pretty good gamble that 1 is a keeper at an draft capital area that’s not very costly if we miss.

I think it’s a good bet that 1 of our 2 day 3 selections at OL will rise from this class Van Lanen or Newman

 

[AmishMafia]

Shemar Jean Charles (SJC) is also my 2021 draft pick that is going to surprise everyone. GB scouts were pounding the table of the kid. I just finished watching a 1974 draft recap. It reminded me of Steelers HOF WR Lynn Swann and John Stallworth situation.

Not saying Stokes or SJC are equal to Swann or Stallworth, but the situation surely does. Swann came from a big school, known competition, big time player. Stallworth was playing at a HBCU, was an All-Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference receiver. Heck I can't even find Stallworth's college stats. The Steelers staff and scouts wanted to draft Stallworth early, 1st round even. After some convincing from the scouts', Art Rooney, gave in and they picked up Stallworth in the 4th.

I wonder which Packer scout it was who scouted SJC and got in Gutey's ear about?
I digress, getting back to surprise rookie. I think SJC is very scrappy and tough son ofa gun. He only allowed 30% completion rate, thats where he scrappiness comes in. SJC has good feel/awareness as to where the ball will be and knocks it. I'm really excited about him, especially vs Josh Jackson, Hollman.

Stallworth's school was so obscure, there was only 1 set of game tapes. The Steelers requested them first and the supposedly lost them. Most other teams think they did it on purpose so nobody could scout stallworth.

 

[Krabs]

Don’t forget Sherrod there day 1. I think pretty much a miss considering he never played past 4 seasons with us and was never really very good when he was out there

Sherrod had a devastating leg injury his rookie season. If memory serves me correctly, he was high on the draft boards. I think things would have been different if not for the injury.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Shemar Jean Charles (SJC) is also my 2021 draft pick that is going to surprise everyone. GB scouts were pounding the table of the kid. I just finished watching a 1974 draft recap. It reminded me of Steelers HOF WR Lynn Swann and John Stallworth situation.

Not saying Stokes or SJC are equal to Swann or Stallworth, but the situation surely does. Swann came from a big school, known competition, big time player. Stallworth was playing at a HBCU, was an All-Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference receiver. Heck I can't even find Stallworth's college stats. The Steelers staff and scouts wanted to draft Stallworth early, 1st round even. After some convincing from the scouts', Art Rooney, gave in and they picked up Stallworth in the 4th.

I wonder which Packer scout it was who scouted SJC and got in Gutey's ear about?
I digress, getting back to surprise rookie. I think SJC is very scrappy and tough son ofa gun. He only allowed 30% completion rate, thats where he scrappiness comes in. SJC has good feel/awareness as to where the ball will be and knocks it. I'm really excited about him, especially vs Josh Jackson, Hollman.

I hope you're right. I don't see Jackson or Hollman making the 53, or even the PS at this point. Jackson is in his fourth year I think?????? At any rate, the guy just didn't make the jump.

 

[OldSchool101]

Sherrod had a devastating leg injury his rookie season. If memory serves me correctly, he was high on the draft boards. I think things would have been different if not for the injury.

Oh ok, thank you, I didn't recall that. I guess it’s been awhile. Seems pretty logical he wouldn’t make a full recovery after reviewing that type break.
Out of respect for Derrick, We’ll move him back to the “unfinished” column. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Sherrod had a devastating leg injury his rookie season. If memory serves me correctly, he was high on the draft boards. I think things would have been different if not for the injury.

Good catch. Sherrod did have a serious injury his first season. In the end, it was the end of his career. No way to predict stuff like that.

 

[El Guapo]

His injury was a major disappointment, but it finally came out in his third or fourth year (when fan frustration was at its peak) that his first surgery did not go well.

I looked it up and found this about his setbacks:

Silence ends on Sherrod

The Green Bay Packers have erected a wall of silence regarding tackle Derek Sherrod‘s long absence due to injury. His family has broken through that wall.

archive.jsonline.com

 

[Krabs]

His injury was a major disappointment, but it finally came out in his third or fourth year (when fan frustration was at its peak) that his first surgery did not go well.

I looked it up and found this about his setbacks:

Silence ends on Sherrod

The Green Bay Packers have erected a wall of silence regarding tackle Derek Sherrod‘s long absence due to injury. His family has broken through that wall.

archive.jsonline.com

Yeah, I remember that. I remember thinking it was a good pick at the time. Just a fluke injury. One hates to see that in any sport.

 

[El Guapo]

Thompson was good at the top and middle of the draft for OL:

1st Rounders - Bryan Bulaga, Derek Sherrod
2nd Rounders - Daryn Colledge, Jason Spriggs
3rd Rounders - Jason Spitz
4th Rounders - Allen Barbre, Josh Sitton, TJ Lang, David Bakhtiari, JC Tretter
5th Rounders - Junius Coston, Tony Moll, Breno Giacomini, Jamon Meredith, Marshall Newhouse, Corey Linsley
6th Rounders - Caleb Schlauderaff, Kyle Murphy, Kofi Amichia
7th Rounders - William Whitticker, Andrew Datko

Spitz was a three-year starter but underwhelmed. I did not highlight Newhouse because even as a 5th rounder, he struggled as both the left and right tackles. He went on the do well with the Patriots and others, but couldn't play well here. We got some good use out of a 5th rounder though.

 

[AmishMafia]

Thompson was good at the top and middle of the draft for OL:

1st Rounders - Bryan Bulaga, Derek Sherrod
2nd Rounders - Daryn Colledge, Jason Spriggs
3rd Rounders - Jason Spitz
4th Rounders - Allen Barbre, Josh Sitton, TJ Lang, David Bakhtiari, JC Tretter
5th Rounders - Junius Coston, Tony Moll, Breno Giacomini, Jamon Meredith, Marshall Newhouse, Corey Linsley
6th Rounders - Caleb Schlauderaff, Kyle Murphy, Kofi Amichia
7th Rounders - William Whitticker, Andrew Datko

Spitz was a three-year starter but underwhelmed. I did not highlight Newhouse because even as a 5th rounder, he struggled as both the left and right tackles. He went on the do well with the Patriots and others, but couldn't play well here. We got some good use out of a 5th rounder though.

Should have established a rule. TT must only take OL in the 4th round. We are short one ROT, but otherwise, hat's an impressive OL with those guys.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Thompson was good at the top and middle of the draft for OL:

1st Rounders - Bryan Bulaga, Derek Sherrod
2nd Rounders - Daryn Colledge, Jason Spriggs
3rd Rounders - Jason Spitz
4th Rounders - Allen Barbre, Josh Sitton, TJ Lang, David Bakhtiari, JC Tretter
5th Rounders - Junius Coston, Tony Moll, Breno Giacomini, Jamon Meredith, Marshall Newhouse, Corey Linsley
6th Rounders - Caleb Schlauderaff, Kyle Murphy, Kofi Amichia
7th Rounders - William Whitticker, Andrew Datko

Spitz was a three-year starter but underwhelmed. I did not highlight Newhouse because even as a 5th rounder, he struggled as both the left and right tackles. He went on the do well with the Patriots and others, but couldn't play well here. We got some good use out of a 5th rounder though.

I don't consider Spitz, a third round pick who ended up starting 45 games for the Packers, as underwhelming.

 

[El Guapo]

Spitz started 45 games over 5 seasons, a rate of 56%. Marshall Newhouse started 31 games over 3 seasons, a rate of 65%. Starting stats probably aren't the best measuring stick but I get your point.

Colledge is a bubble guy too. He started but was average by most measurements of an offensive lineman. Newhouse started a lot of games for two years, and if I remember, switching from LT to RT. Spits similarly played most positions on the OL, never nailing one down, and then served as a backup his final year before leaving in FA.

I personally don't think any of them underwhelmed or overwhelmed...or whelmed. They were just guys who showed enough to get a shot at starting, but were not worth keeping. Maybe they all deserve a separate designation.

 

[tynimiller]

IMO if you get even a handful of starts along OL from a late Day 2 or Day 3 guy within their rookie contract that was a good pick 100% of the time.

 

[gopkrs]

IMO if you get even a handful of starts along OL from a late Day 2 or Day 3 guy within their rookie contract that was a good pick 100% of the time.

It depends on what the competition is. If you are drafting a guy to start because you really don't have a lot of talent; well, he may start but it does not automatically mean he was a good pick.imo It may just mean you don't have anyone else.

 

[El Guapo]

I haven't looked this up, but if I remember correctly TT stepped in and immediately let Marco Rivera and whomever the other stallwart OG was at the time. We lost both of our guards to free agency (big contracts --- Mike Wahl???) so Ted drafted Colledge and Spitz. They bridged the gap until Sitton and Lang were drafted and became true starters.

 

[Krabs]

I personally don't think any of them underwhelmed or overwhelmed...or whelmed.

I like whelmed.

 

[tynimiller]

It depends on what the competition is. If you are drafting a guy to start because you really don't have a lot of talent; well, he may start but it does not automatically mean he was a good pick.imo It may just mean you don't have anyone else.

This is fair point for considering any draft pick. My standard is more based as a minimal honestly. That would factor into my expectations of the player themselves but overall you tell me we drafted a OL in the 3rd round or later that he'll give us a dozen adaquate starts in his rookie contract, I'm chalking that up as a successful pick, not a homerun or massive hit - but solid.

 

[AmishMafia]

This is fair point for considering any draft pick. My standard is more based as a minimal honestly. That would factor into my expectations of the player themselves but overall you tell me we drafted a OL in the 3rd round or later that he'll give us a dozen adaquate starts in his rookie contract, I'm chalking that up as a successful pick, not a homerun or massive hit - but solid.

I agree that expectations form the basis of our evaluation of someone's career. AJ Hawk had a great career for us. I expected, however, a Nitchke/Butkis type impact. Not even close. He ended up having a whelming career for us. (The word is catching on)

 

[tynimiller]

I agree that expectations form the basis of our evaluation of someone's career. AJ Hawk had a great career for us. I expected, however, a Nitchke/Butkis type impact. Not even close. He ended up having a whelming career for us. (The word is catching on)

Love it . Aj is solely a victim of his draft position. He gets picked even arguably end of the first and definitely 2nd round or later and delivers that career he is remembered and honored by fans vastly differently.

 

[Krabs]

Love it . Aj is solely a victim of his draft position. He gets picked even arguably end of the first and definitely 2nd round or later and delivers that career he is remembered and honored by fans vastly differently.

He is the Packers all time leading tackler and they Packers had some pretty good defenders I'd say.

 

[El Guapo]

Tackling machine without any big play impact. That type of player should be paired with a thumper like Desmond Bishop briefly was, or a big play linebacker. It's like pairing up a contact hitter with a home-run hitter.

I generally just look at players without looking at their draft position. Who cares if we drafted someone in the 1st or 7th round. I don't even care that one is paid more than the other. The team commits roughly $10M to 7 or 8 rookies in each draft. If 3 or 4 of those guys become solid contributors to the team then that is a success. Historically (by my calculations), the Packers have averaged about a 40% success rate in the draft. Yes "success" is subjective but I use the same criteria consistently. Ron Wolf was best at 46% with Ted Thompson second highest at 42%. For recent history, Mike Sherman was worst by far at 24%.

In that 2006 draft, TT drafted AJ Hawk, Daryn Colledge, Greg Jennings, Abdul Hodge, Jason Spitz, Cory Rodgers, Will Blackmon, Ingle Martin QB, Tony Moll OT, Johnny Jolly, Tyrone Culver DB, and Dave Tollefson DE. Out of 12 picks, roughly half of them became contributors on the team. Jennings was clearly the best, but Hawk was close behind with Jolly, Colledge, and Spitz as starters that didn't last more than a couple of years. Blackmon was a good special teamer and backup DB. Everyone else was forgettable.

IMO - The best draft in the past 30 years was 1995. Ron Wolf drafted Craig Newsom, Antonio Freeman, William Henderson, Brian Williams, Travis Jervey, and Adam Timmerman. He also traded a 2nd round pick for TE Keith Jackson. Darrius Holland could have been better and Wolf struck out on Jeff Miller, Jay Barker, and Charlie Simmons. Counting Holland as a failure and leaving out the Keith Jackson trade, Ron Wolf hit on 6 out of 10 for a 60% success rate. I don't give Adam Timmerman extra kudos for being a 7th round pick, and also don't take anything away from Craig Newsom for being a 1st round pick. He played well until tearing his ACL. Add back in the Keith Jackson trade, and Wolf really did a good job.

No matter the draft position, a GM needs to spend his rookie money and aim to get at least half or more of them to contribute positively to the team.

 

[gopkrs]

This is fair point for considering any draft pick. My standard is more based as a minimal honestly. That would factor into my expectations of the player themselves but overall you tell me we drafted a OL in the 3rd round or later that he'll give us a dozen adaquate starts in his rookie contract, I'm chalking that up as a successful pick, not a homerun or massive hit - but solid.

Another problem with using time played as a criteria for judging whether or not a player was a good draft pick is when a guy gets drafted high and mgmnt. just does not want to draft another player at that position. So this draftee comes in and starts right away and plays for a good number of years but he was always average. I guess I'm just saying the best judge is how good the football player is. And even that is so subjective and sometimes depends on the players around him. I'm not talking of the obvious superstars. Players can go underappreciated also. Science or art?