Yeah I mean some people will say the missed 33 yarder is "only one play" but Carlson has amassed a bunch of "only one play" misses over his short career. Yesterday's miss was big just for his complacency.
I think you and I were talking about this same thing just the other day, after the Cleveland game. In that game, Joseph was 1 for 1 (35 yd) plus an XTP, and Carlson was 2/2 (33 yd, 46yd) with an XTP. Which one had the better day?
Depends on how you evaluate it. Most might say neither had the "better" day, because neither missed a kick and it's impossible to do better than not miss. Some might say Carlson had the better game, because he had twice as many field goals as Joseph - and one was 46 yards.
But another way of looking at it is that Joseph
looked a hell of a lot better than Carlson. Both of Joseph's kicks in Cleveland were drilled exactly dead center, while Carlson's two field goals just barely squeezed in - one within the width of the ball inside the right upright, and the other just a couple of feet inside the left upright.
The uprights are exactly 18'6" apart. If they were 16 feet apart, Carlson would have gone 0/2 in Cleveland and 0/2 again against the Baltimores, with 1 missed XTP.
If they were just 5 feet apart (or at the absolute most
7 feet apart), Joseph would have still been perfect from the field - 2/2 in Cleveland, 1/1 Saturday, and perfect on extra points. If the uprights were only as wide as my armspan.
I have no idea what the differences are in their appoach and/or technique, but whatever it is that Joseph does hits his target absolutely dead center on a comparatively very frequent and regular basis, and whatever it is that Carlson does often just sprays the ball in the general direction of the same target, and comes as close as possible to hitting it.
And that matters. If I'm Carlson's agent in April, I'm going to insist that the only thing that counts is that even the close calls still made it through the uprights and scored points. But if I'm Gutekunst/LaFleur/Bisaccia in August, trying to build a team that will win potentially multiple Super Bowls, I'm not comfortable betting the future of the franchise on a guy who basically just aims the ball in the general direction and crosses his fingers.