Packers Front Office Under Fire

[tynimiller]

MVS is well down the list of deep threats in the NFL. Although that's probably because he doesn't do much else while the guys above him can generally run additional routes. The 2018 draft got one impact player, one backup, and 2 special teams guys. That's not a good ratio out of eleven picks. And, in my opinion, the fact that 3 other guys will see their rookie deals pay off just says the team couldn't draft anyone better, not that those guys are really deserving of anything resembling props.

You're letting your biasness towards MVS being bad shine through. He is without question one of the best pure deep threats in the league - to pretend otherwise is choosing to look elsewhere. Not saying he is an elite WR, not even saying a great WR, but as a pure deep threat there is VERY few others even worthy of discussion.

In 2018 (his rookie year) there was less than 25 WRs in the entire league averaging 15 yards per catch - he was one.

In 2019, there was less than 10 WRs averaging 17 or more - he was one

In 2020, there was 1 guy that averaged 20 yards or more - him.

Tyreek Hill is an insanely gifted deep threat and has only broken 17 yards per catch once in his career (5 years) - MVS twice in just three years.

Will Fuller is another A lister of deep threats in the league - in his 5 seasons he never broke 17 yet.

Michael Gallup, drafted same year as MVS, is consistently producing as a serious deep threat as he has averaged 15.4 (18'), 16.8 (19'), 14.3 (20') - MVS 15.3 (18'), 17.4 (19'), 20.9 (20')

There is a lot to be critical of MVS, but to argue he is well down the list of deep threats in the NFL is sheer ignorance only because I have a feeling you're not actually researching the deep threats in the NFL over the recent years.

Pure deep threats typically have lower catch %'s also - which is MVS's biggest issue. For example here are some of the best YPC career guys ever that we have catch percentages for:

Devery Henderson had a career YPC of 17.9 and ctch% of 55.4
DeSean Jackson -17.4 and 56%
Malcomb Floyd - 17.3 and 56.3%
Josh Gordon - 17.2 and 53.5%
Vincent Jackson - 16.8 and 52.2%

MVS (just three seasons) - 17.8 and 50.5%
Just for notes sake since same draft class - Michael Gallup - 15.6 and 55.2%

The majority of those guys listed, hit a much better catch% groove in the middle of their careers with some breaking 60% a few seasons consistently - should MVS do so, easily could produce numbers far superior to any of them on that list - or minimum consistent with them.

 

[tynimiller]

I've outlined even more guys before when folks get crazy with MVS stuff:

BUT THAT isn't the discussion. There are VERY few people here that were of the mindset: man our WR room is an A+ and don't need a thing. I was pissed we didn't draft a WR.

However, instead due to all this frustration over not drafting or bringing in a big name...many have chosen to live in a fantasy world with MVS. In this world literally EVERYTHING that happens in a game that is negative is MVS's fault...and if not (on the rare occasion) it is Kevin King's fault.

It has gotten to a ludacris level. Adams has dropped bunnies this year, Lazard...Tonyan...yes MVS has had more, however one has to realize he is purely a deep threat or big play type wide receiver (added because clearly some misunderstood the term). If anyone spends just a minute analyzing completion percentages as the yards of the pass increases you'll realize % complete expectations need to drop for a WR (except the incredibly special aka Adams). His three seasons here has been 52.1%, 46.4% & 52.4% catch percentages. Terrible for a possession type WR like a Lazard (67.3 and 71.7) BUT for a guy that literally has a yards per reception of 20.9 (BLOWS rest of league away this season) MVS's catch % is not too far off base for deep ball guys.

Take Kenny Stills as example, Has always averaged around that 15 yards per reception figure being a deep ball threat. His career average catch percentage is 59.6 but has had 3 seasons over 60% and two over 70%. Stills to me sets the goal for MVS...BUT here's the crazy thing. If MVS could push his catch percentage just up 5 ticks (5%) and stay around that 54-58% range, the dude could make the argument of being one of the special deep threats in the league.

Few other recent names of deep ball guys everyone will recognize:

Devery Henderson - many consider one of the best deep ball guys of recent years(had 3 seasons eclipsing the 20 yards per reception figure) and he averaged only 55.4%. He only broke 60% on two seasons and had 3 below 50%. This was all with a HOF quarterback by the name of Drew Brees flinging it to him for nearly all those years.

Desean Jackson - led the league in Y/R 4 different times (two of those times over 20.0)..catch percentage average for his career...56%. Those four years he led the league in Y/R his %s were 49.5% - 58.9% - 56% - 55.4%

Vincent Jackson - Averaged over 16 yards a recept for his career, led the league one year and averaged ONLY 52.2 catch percentage. The dude only broke 60% one time in his career.

James Jett - Led the league one year in Y/R and averaged over 17 yards a recept for his career....his career average was literally ONLY 47.7%. He broke 55% only one time in 2001 when he only had 3 targets and 2 receptions...so really NEVER. The year he led the league...his percentage was only 42.3%

Malcom Floyd - Led the league once, broke 20 once and averaged 17.3 over his career in Y/R. His career average catch % was 56.3%. He had only 3 seasons over 60% (one being the year he led the league) The year he averaged 24.8 (didn't lead the league shockingly) he averaged 54.5%

Josh Gordon - Never led the league but career average is 17.2 Y/R. His catch percentage has never been over 58% and career average is 53.5%

Flipper Anderson - Only half his career did they track catch %...but dude averaged for a career over 20 Y/R (4th best of all time) and the four seasons they did track % he averaged only 45.4%

So again, why does everyone expect some INSANE numbers for a guy that is still young, until this year showed no expanded route tree options...it just doesn't make sense at all. The crazy thing is...he isn't too far off of some INCREDIBLE player's that many would deem were elite deep ball threats in Jackson and Henderson.

His drops are incredibly frustrating, and given the nature of the game can be deflating for sure...however deep balls tossed are nearly a flip of a coin gamble - and like any gambling you do its high risk or high reward. MVS is a rare breed of a human being when it comes to the un-coachable trait called speed. The good news is, rookie contract and still plenty of time to get his hands better...he'll never be a possession type 70% or higher type guy...but man the closer he creeps to 60% the closer he is to seriously a special spot not many deep ball types see.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

it's not a strong draft class, but any class that gives you a bonafide star, top 3 in the league at a premium position player can never be considered a bad draft either.

The good/bad news with only 1 bonafide star is the off-balance effect it has on the team. Sure, you have a Pro-Bowl CB, but now you have to pay him like one and that is a big dent in your cap. I know a good problem to have, but meanwhile, the other 11 picks you went into that draft with didn't give you a starter and only a few depth guys. So as Sunshine eludes to, now you need other starters that you were hoping that the draft filled. I would include Savage as a byproduct of that draft, so again, I give it more of an "average" grade based on those 2 guys, but still feel it could have been so much better.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

You're letting your biasness towards MVS being bad shine through. He is without question one of the best pure deep threats in the league - to pretend otherwise is choosing to look elsewhere. Not saying he is an elite WR, not even saying a great WR, but as a pure deep threat there is VERY few others even worthy of discussion.

In 2018 (his rookie year) there was less than 25 WRs in the entire league averaging 15 yards per catch - he was one.

In 2019, there was less than 10 WRs averaging 17 or more - he was one

In 2020, there was 1 guy that averaged 20 yards or more - him.

Tyreek Hill is an insanely gifted deep threat and has only broken 17 yards per catch once in his career (5 years) - MVS twice in just three years.

Will Fuller is another A lister of deep threats in the league - in his 5 seasons he never broke 17 yet.

Michael Gallup, drafted same year as MVS, is consistently producing as a serious deep threat as he has averaged 15.4 (18'), 16.8 (19'), 14.3 (20') - MVS 15.3 (18'), 17.4 (19'), 20.9 (20')

There is a lot to be critical of MVS, but to argue he is well down the list of deep threats in the NFL is sheer ignorance only because I have a feeling you're not actually researching the deep threats in the NFL over the recent years.

Pure deep threats typically have lower catch %'s also - which is MVS's biggest issue. For example here are some of the best YPC career guys ever that we have catch percentages for:

Devery Henderson had a career YPC of 17.9 and ctch% of 55.4
DeSean Jackson -17.4 and 56%
Malcomb Floyd - 17.3 and 56.3%
Josh Gordon - 17.2 and 53.5%
Vincent Jackson - 16.8 and 52.2%

MVS (just three seasons) - 17.8 and 50.5%
Just for notes sake since same draft class - Michael Gallup - 15.6 and 55.2%

The majority of those guys listed, hit a much better catch% groove in the middle of their careers with some breaking 60% a few seasons consistently - should MVS do so, easily could produce numbers far superior to any of them on that list - or minimum consistent with them.

Okay. Let's give you MVS as a good 3rd receiver (he hasn't shown the route tree to be a decent #2). My point still stands that 2 starters (excluding ST) is NOT a good draft when you have 11 picks.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

My point still stands that 2 starters (excluding ST) is NOT a good draft when you have 11 picks.

12 picks To be fair, I think you need to add Savage to that class as well.

 

[tynimiller]

Okay. Let's give you MVS as a good 3rd receiver (he hasn't shown the route tree to be a decent #2). My point still stands that 2 starters (excluding ST) is NOT a good draft when you have 11 picks.

Again you need to review and research large sampling of draft classes. Just Jaire and a bonus 1st rounder alone make the 18’ draft a success.

You can exclude ST all you want, but isn’t fair to do so when most of Day 3 picks make or break their careers there

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You can exclude ST all you want, but isn’t fair to do so when most of Day 3 picks make or break their careers there

I worry less about the Day 3 guys. It was more the failure of Day 2 picks, Jackson and Burks and the fact that Moore, a 4th round pick was a complete bomb. Spending a 5th on a punter that ends up not being that great, is also a disappointment.

I get your point, Alexander ended up being a home run and Savage is a decent Safety, but I don't think that should over shadow some really obvious whiffs. Even the Madison pick at #138, which was the first pick of the 5th round, was a dud, since he ended up never even taking a snap for the Packers.

Interesting enough, 7th round and last pick by the Packers, Kendall Donnerson, just signed with the Panthers for $660K/year.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Again you need to review and research large sampling of draft classes. Just Jaire and a bonus 1st rounder alone make the 18’ draft a success.

You can exclude ST all you want, but isn’t fair to do so when most of Day 3 picks make or break their careers there

Okay, so the team might have a full ST squad and, after 5 years, 10 starters for 22 positions. That's good?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

12 picks To be fair, I think you need to add Savage to that class as well.

Savage was a good pick but I think he needs to stay in the 2019 draft because otherwise it's gonna get real confusing in evaluating the 2019 draft. Excluding him from 2018 hurts that class but it REALLY helps the 2019 class.

 

[tynimiller]

Savage was a good pick but I think he needs to stay in the 2019 draft because otherwise it's gonna get real confusing in evaluating the 2019 draft. Excluding him from 2018 hurts that class but it REALLY helps the 2019 class.

that’s Why I don’t include Savage personally like you, but I do count leaving 2018 with a first the following as part of the grading for certain.

 

[tynimiller]

Okay, so the team might have a full ST squad and, after 5 years, 10 starters for 22 positions. That's good?

you get 10 bonafide everyday without question starters every 5 years through the draft that isn’t terrible. You’ll hit more some years, less other years...but if I got two guys suiting up as “starters” in their 3rd season (Jaire and MVS) a starting punter and LS plus some depth guys trying to earn a second contract in EQSB, Burks and Jackson that is a passing graded draft without question. That’s without the bonus 1st rounder picked up.

I prefer waiting 4 solid years but my current reflective grade for the entire 2018 draft is a solid B- with a chance of B or B+ if MVS explodes or EQSB and Jackson can click more and be dependable depth guys at their positions

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm sticking to my premise that if they really wanted any of those guys that bad, they would have found a way. I'm not going to keep beating my WR drum though, I was extremely happy that they got Amari, whether he turns into a solid player or not, we will see. However, at least it is a step forward, in acknowledging and trying to address the need.

Another player fit was Toney. It’s my belief that had Kadarius Toney got anywhere near our selection, we would’ve made a move to get him. I had us taking him just days before the draft.. until I realized there’s a 75% Toney does not make it within 5 picks of our late, day 1 selection.

MVS is well down the list of deep threats in the NFL.

Thats not true at all. You could’ve argued that after 2019 maybe. But MVS is no longer an unknown in 2021. He’s part of the reason that we got right back in that Championship game down 1 score with several minutes left knocking on the goal line. MVS has put Safeties across the league on notice. What’s crazy is he’s still ascending and he was exactly the deep-threat we all discussed needing about 5 years ago.

 

[Schultz]

If sunshine thinks MVS would be the #4 wide receiver at best for MN or KC he is absolutely bias against him and should never be taken seriously again. Now for the 2018 draft.
1. JA better than I thought
2. JJ worse than I thought
3. OB worse than I thought
4. JM - OUCH
5. CM - Ouch
6. JK S- UMM
7. MVS- Makes up for Moore
8. EQSB- roster spot holder
9. JL- neh
10. HB
11. KD- never helped GB

I liked JJ where he was picked better than I liked JA where he was picked. Obviously JA is a home run and JJ is a grounder to 2nd. Jackson still has a chance to turn that grounder into one that moved the runner to third with 1 out. OB - As of now just a long fly out. He still has a chance to make that a sac fly driving in the guy Jackson got to 3rd. JM - is a strike out swinging at a ball out of the zone. CM is a called third strike. JK S- if you combine him and Bradley they are like a guy who got a 2 out walk. MVS is the guy who hit the lead off double. He can be the guy who scores after the grounder to 2nd and the deep fly ball if he keeps improving. EQSB is like a no hit good glove late inning defensive replacement who needs to do more to see more innings. JL and KD are like the bullpen and emergency catchers. If you do not count Savage who is a single with a good chance to steal 2nd than I can't even give this draft a C. Adding however you want to word it, coming out with a future #1 or using Savage by name it becomes a C+ for me.

 

[thequick12]

I worry less about the Day 3 guys. It was more the failure of Day 2 picks, Jackson and Burks and the fact that Moore, a 4th round pick was a complete bomb. Spending a 5th on a punter that ends up not being that great, is also a disappointment.

I get your point, Alexander ended up being a home run and Savage is a decent Safety, but I don't think that should over shadow some really obvious whiffs. Even the Madison pick at #138, which was the first pick of the 5th round, was a dud, since he ended up never even taking a snap for the Packers.

Interesting enough, 7th round and last pick by the Packers, Kendall Donnerson, just signed with the Panthers for $660K/year.

Jackson might still have a chance now that the defensive scheme is supposedly zone heavy...

Also Savage is far more than a decent safety. I look for him to take Jaire Alexander like 3rd year leap to stardom...

 

[thequick12]

It isn't a wild theory, Gute himself made it known they tried to move up last year. Quite a few of us have shared that information as well. I think you looked away on purpose LOL

In my book trying doesn't count for sht...if you try and fail well I guess that's better than not trying at all but it's certainly nothing to hang your hat on.

Having said that gute did say he tried to trade up for Justin Jefferson...but what does that matter? If it's even true, as there's always the possibility that he made that up to make himself look better...either way I didn't see Jefferson playing for the Packers so...

 

[thequick12]

you get 10 bonafide everyday without question starters every 5 years through the draft that isn’t terrible. You’ll hit more some years, less other years...but if I got two guys suiting up as “starters” in their 3rd season (Jaire and MVS) a starting punter and LS plus some depth guys trying to earn a second contract in EQSB, Burks and Jackson that is a passing graded draft without question. That’s without the bonus 1st rounder picked up.

I prefer waiting 4 solid years but my current reflective grade for the entire 2018 draft is a solid B- with a chance of B or B+ if MVS explodes or EQSB and Jackson can click more and be dependable depth guys at their positions

If given the chance I'm certain I would do much better than that...as I'm sure a few others here would too. The guys I like predraft far more often than not turn out to be real players.

Some are obvious some far less so but I guess the point is just because these guys live football doesn't mean they're the best at drafting players. I believe there's a certain level of intuitive thinking necessary to be a consistently good drafter. You gotta be able to feel it and that's something not all people can do no matter how thorough they are watching tape etc.

At the end of the day the NFL is a people business and some people just aren't good at reading other people...

Example just by talking to Kevin King one time I would not have drafted him. I loved his athletic ability, size, even a lot of his tape. But his intelligence is severely lacking...and one thing I've noticed over the years is generally the really great players are the ones who have high ability combined with high intelligence

 

[Deleted member 6794]

While I did say it was one of the reasons, I think its more complicated than just Love. Go back in "Rodgers History" and count the number of times he was supposedly upset with either coaching or the front office. Love might have been the straw that broke the camels back, but that back was going to break eventually.

It's true Rodgers had been upset with the Packers before they decided to draft Love but he never threatened to want out of Green Bay because of it. That seemingly changed once Gutekunst drafted his potential replacement for no reason.

This has been beaten to death, yet you keep bringing it up like its Love's final grade in the NFL. Have you convinced yourself that it was such a bad pick, that there is no way that Love will not develop any further than what he did during the Covid impacted season? You do realize the Packers let Boyle walk right? How are you so certain that he didn't impress anyone in practice? I would love to read what you are reading about that aspect. Please don't bring up "this guy didn't seem to be impacted by Covid". Had the Packers felt the need to rush Love along, they would have, but they had Aaron fricking Rodgers and what they felt was an adequate enough backup in Boyle, so there was zero pressure on having to put Love in a potential bad situation.

As I have mentioned in several discussion with you about the topic I don't consider Love a bust because he wasn't able to move past Boyle on the depth chart last season nor have I put a final grade on him by any means. It's fair to mention that he wasn't able to move into the second spot on the depth chart though, something I don't understand seems to drive that many people crazy.

As a side note, I wasn't the one bringing up the topic either as I just replied to a ridiculous claim that Rodgers might have been intimidated by Love in practice last year.

Lombardi was an awesome coach, but he came to Green Bay in 59 with a lot of good talent already on the roster.

The Packers finished the 1958 with a 1-10-1 record though. They have never had a worse record in their proud history.

I loved Michael Pittman last year, LOVED him but I'm not calling up the team with the 15th pick say and offering my 1st, a future 2nd and our current 2nd also just to insure I get "my guy".

The Packers could have stayed put at #30 and selected Pittman.

To get 7 players out of that draft that will most likely see their entire rookie contract played out is insane really.

Jackson, Burks, Scott, EQSB and Bradley shouldn't be considered a success just because they're still on the roster. That actually indicates the overall talent level on the roster isn't that great to begin with.

you get 10 bonafide everyday without question starters every 5 years through the draft that isn’t terrible. You’ll hit more some years, less other years...but if I got two guys suiting up as “starters” in their 3rd season (Jaire and MVS) a starting punter and LS plus some depth guys trying to earn a second contract in EQSB, Burks and Jackson that is a passing graded draft without question.

I'm sorry but I don't consider MVS to be a bonafide starter. Nor should anyone consider a punter or a long snapper a starter at all.

If sunshine thinks MVS would be the #4 wide receiver at best for MN or KC he is absolutely bias against him and should never be taken seriously again.

In my opinion it's fair to argue that MVS could be ranked behind Hill, Watkins, Robinson and Hartmann on the Chiefs depth chart. He would most likely be the #3 receiver in Minnesota behind Jefferson and Thielen though.

 

[tynimiller]

If given the chance I'm certain I would do much better than that...as I'm sure a few others here would too. The guys I like predraft far more often than not turn out to be real players.

Some are obvious some far less so but I guess the point is just because these guys live football doesn't mean they're the best at drafting players. I believe there's a certain level of intuitive thinking necessary to be a consistently good drafter. You gotta be able to feel it and that's something not all people can do no matter how thorough they are watching tape etc.

At the end of the day the NFL is a people business and some people just aren't good at reading other people...

Example just by talking to Kevin King one time I would not have drafted him. I loved his athletic ability, size, even a lot of his tape. But his intelligence is severely lacking...and one thing I've noticed over the years is generally the really great players are the ones who have high ability combined with high intelligence

Well guess at least confidence isn’t an issue in your life LoL

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's true Rodgers had been upset with the Packers before they decided to draft Love but he never threatened to want out of Green Bay because of it. That seemingly changed once Gutekunst drafted his potential replacement for no reason.

"Seemingly changed" ? In what way, in your opinion? Rodgers didn't sit out last season after the Love pick. Again, I don't doubt the Love pick didn't sit well with Rodgers, but you seem to want to use it as the driving force as the reason because that would allow you to say "Ah ha, I told you it was a bad pick!". When in reality, you have been preaching it was a bad pick not because of Rodgers, but because it wasn't this magical player that could have been the difference maker in the NFCCG. Which one is it?

I will also say this. If Rodgers has wanted out of Green Bay strictly over the Love pick, then he really is a very insecure guy, as well as full of himself. He would probably go down as the first HOF'er to ever pull a hissy fit and potentially retire over concerns of a backup being drafted.

As I have mentioned in several discussion with you about the topic I don't consider Love a bust because he wasn't able to move past Boyle on the depth chart last season nor have I put a final grade on him by any means. It's fair to mention that he wasn't able to move into the second spot on the depth chart though, something I don't understand seems to drive that many people crazy.

For what purpose do you continually repeat this then? Was he bad pick because he didn't contribute or was he a bad pick because he didn't dress? The Packers didn't draft Love to immediately start, Covid happened, what does it matter if he was in the 3rd or 2nd spot? How many meaningful snaps did Boyle take as the #2?

 

[PikeBadger]

The Packers finished the 1958 with a 1-10-1 record though. They have never had a worse record in their proud history.

Yes they did. With plenty of talent too.
Hornung, Starr, McGee, Taylor, Gregg, Kramer, Ringo, Nitschke and Hanner were on the roster. Vince didn’t exactly have a bare cupboard when he got here.

 

[gopkrs]

Yes they did. With plenty of talent too.
Hornung, Starr, McGee, Taylor, Gregg, Kramer, Ringo, Nitschke and Hanner were on the roster. Vince didn’t exactly have a bare cupboard when he got here.

They had a lot of other very good players on that roster also. No, cupboard was definitely not bare, but the team sure needed to be shown how to do it. Amazing turnaround.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

"Seemingly changed" ? In what way, in your opinion?

Once again, Rodgers never threatened to not play for the Packers anymore until after Love was drafted. What else do you think led to him supposedly wanting out of Green Bay this offseason? BTW I used the phrase seemingly changed as Rodgers hasn't declared that he doesn't want to play for the Packers anymore but that story is solely based on rumors.

When in reality, you have been preaching it was a bad pick not because of Rodgers, but because it wasn't this magical player that could have been the difference maker in the NFCCG. Which one is it?

The reasons mentioned aren't mutually exclusive in any way. It was a bad pick from the get-go because it didn't improve the Packers chances of winning the Super Bowl last season. If the move led to Rodgers wanting out of Green Bay it makes it an even worse selection on top of it.

For what purpose do you continually repeat this then? Was he bad pick because he didn't contribute or was he a bad pick because he didn't dress? The Packers didn't draft Love to immediately start, Covid happened, what does it matter if he was in the 3rd or 2nd spot? How many meaningful snaps did Boyle take as the #2?

Why do you get so upset with someone mentioning a fact? While Love not being able to move past Boyle doesn't automatically result in him being a bust it doesn't instill a ton of confidence in him either.

Yes they did. With plenty of talent too.
Hornung, Starr, McGee, Taylor, Gregg, Kramer, Ringo, Nitschke and Hanner were on the roster. Vince didn’t exactly have a bare cupboard when he got here.

True, but Lombardi was the one making it work.

 

[PikeBadger]

True, but Lombardi was the one making it work.

I think you missed the context of my response. I said that Lombardi was amazing but that he (unlike Ryan) already had plenty of talented players on the roster when he came to Green Bay. They needed coaching. Vince added to the pieces in place via trade and draft.

 

[Schultz]

Love not moving past Boyle in a covid season means ABSOLUTELY nothing to me. If there were a game where Rodgers was inactive and Boyle started ahead of Love then you would have something to use in your argument. Since that never happened and therefore we will never know it, uh, means ABSOLUTELY nothing to me.

 

[gopkrs]

Love not moving past Boyle in a covid season means ABSOLUTELY nothing to me. If there were a game where Rodgers was inactive and Boyle started ahead of Love then you would have something to use in your argument. Since that never happened and therefore we will never know it, uh, means ABSOLUTELY nothing to me.

Covid or no covid. It matter not at all to me if Love was not suiting up. They drafted him with the expectation of sitting. So why would you suit him up unless Rodgers went down and Boyle could not win?