Niners stud and duds

[OldSchool101]

The other thing is that few players have the ability to flat outrun the secondary. How many 40+ passes has Doubs caught? Each Receiver had their weaknesses and strengths. I’m not sure I’m going to convict a guy who just led the league in per catch (37.5) and stacked 150 yards the prior week. Big deal he dropped a pass who cares. Kittle dropped one that was much shorter. Doubs dropped a short crosser that was probably similar difficulty. Just about cost us an INT.
Watson has caught 59% of everything thrown his way and some of those he had near zero chance as they were poorly thrown. Watson’s average is 5 yards per catch higher and his per target is 2.2 yards farther. Yet he’s still within 5% catch rate of Doubs 64.2%

Watson average long? 67 yards
Doubs average long? 35 yards

Every 100 Targets average
Paddlehands Watson 1,138 yards
Old Mr Reliable Doubs 912 yards

Seems to me I’d be targeting Watson more, not less.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Watson does have a problem hanging on to the football. That will change though as he gains experience. If you watch, you'll see his hands aren't always in the right position to make the catches. That comes through coaching, and repetition. What he does do, and it's essential, is find ways to gain a step on defenders quite frequently, and that's something you either have, or don't have, based on speed, and ability to rotate your hips to change direction. When he solves the hands problem, he's going to be a load to contend with.

It's a lot like teaching a kid to play outfield in baseball. It's a matter of training yourself to have your hands and body properly positioned to make the catch. Judging trajectory is a key element, just like it is to a QB, when he throws the ball.

Until then, with the array of receiving talent we have on the roster, I'm not going to be too worried. I do think if it becomes a do or die situation for the team, Watson will more than likely make that catch, and if it's thrown to someone else, I hope it's Doubs, because he has the hands and body control to make it happen. He was injured on Sunday because he puts the catch first, and his body second. A lesser player would have protected himself, and forgotten about the importance of the catch, if possible.

I agree. We saw some of this from MVS, but sadly he never really "caught on", pun intended. I think the difference with Watson and why I am more hopeful for him, is his size and the fact that we have seen him go up and make contested catches and high catches. This kid can outjump most DB's and if he pulls a Davante Adams and starts hanging on to almost anything thrown at him, watch out. I also what Watson can do after the catch, the guy is fast and can run people over.

 

[Magooch]

This is not entirely new with Watson either. Yes, it was technically his first drop of this season, but he had 4 or so in each of the last couple of seasons as well. And that is not a crazy high number, but for his target volume/usage it is a decent percentage. Not awful, but not "elite" either IMO.

If you go back and read some of his pre-draft profiles you will see some similar concerns too.

Lance Zierlein for NFL.com:

• Occasionally mistimes leaps to the throw.
• Catch focus is below average.
• Needs to impose his size on coverage when the ball goes up.

Pro Football Network:

He needs to remain focused on the catch throughout the process. This could also be a byproduct of a propensity to rely on his body to secure the catch rather than routinely plucking the ball out of the air with his hands. There were examples of the ball sailing through his hands in what you’d consider relatively easy catching opportunities.

NFL Draft Buzz:

• Does not always use his hands to secure deep throws, allowing the ball into his pads and chest.
• Has had an issue with drops - 16 in his four years at NDSU, although only 2 in 2021

Sports Illustrated:

Poor hands mean frequent drops which are especially frustrating downfield where he is unable to track the football consistently.

NFL Mocks.com:

Needs Improvement

Concentration: Watson is guilty of dropping some balls that he simply shouldn’t drop.

Yahoo:

• Inconsistent catching the ball — concentration drops and body catches on tape

APC:

Packers fans might be reluctant to replace Marquez Valdes-Scantling — a talented and fast deep threat with drop problems — with another talented and fast receiver with drop problems. Watons recorded 16 drops over the course of his career. However, they’re mostly concentration drops and he does make an effort to attack the ball with his hands.

And from Watson himself, when asked what he was working to improve on upon moving to the NFL:

"Then obviously catching is something I always try to improve on as well, eliminating focus and concentration drops and just being able to make plays."

So it is what it is. Frustrating, but IMO still a guy who is worth giving those targets to. He just forces defenses to keep honest in ways that others can't. I'd like to see that further ironed out (and it does seem like...at least to some degree he is showing improvement there), but I think to some extent it's probably always going to exist as a flaw in his game.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

FYI Stokes has pretty much been replaced this season … he is only out there when they have no other choice.

See I didn't know that. I thought he was the preferred #2

 

[milani]

Watson is a little baffling. At times he looks like he can catch anything. But on a pass WRs must dream about, in full stride with solid separation and the end zone right in front of him - he gets "paddle hands", good way to describe it.

And I'm with you - I don't want to ear excuses about the weather in GB. Gimme a break.

What I know for sure is that Watson won't ever get close to being a #1 WR until he makes those catches on a regular basis. That was a big play and he flat-out choked.

I thought maybe he lost some of it in the lights. Would he have caught it at 70 degrees and partly cloudy in September. Clearly, Doubs has the best hands of all our receivers although who can forget his first one in Minnesota from Rodgers? Speaking of Rodgers, Richard Rodgers had very good hands although the rest of his game was very average.

 

[OldSchool101]

I thought maybe he lost some of it in the lights. Would he have caught it at 70 degrees and partly cloudy in September. Clearly, Doubs has the best hands of all our receivers although who can forget his first one in Minnesota from Rodgers? Speaking of Rodgers, Richard Rodgers had very good hands although the rest of his game was very average.

Oh yeah. Richard’s hands were like glue. Obviously he was like a Turtle after the catch though. If he caught a 8 yard pass he was good for at least 0.5 yard after the catch.
Doubs has very good hands and exceptional in contested coverage.

 

[Voyageur]

The difference in receivers is amazing. They're just like fingerprints in many respects. No two quite alike.

What we see in Watson is the guy who can get you the longer pass reception, but occasionally will not make that catch. He's good for that unexpected play that catches the other team asleep at the wheel.

Doubs, on the other hand, is a possession type receiver. He's the #1 guy they go to in the intermediate depth passing game, and just beyond the sticks on 3rd down. His "per catch" total will never rival that of Watson, but I doubt anyone else on the team can match up to him in production when it's a key third down play, and he finds a way to beat the coverage, and sit down where his QB can hit him with that chain moving toss.

The rest of our receivers are pretty much all over the place in talent. None of them quite measuring up to these two guys in their specific roles on the team. But, despite that, this mix of talent is what makes the Packers so darned dangerous.

I realize Love has quite a few INTs, but I rank INTs in two categories. Those that are on the QB, and those that are on the receivers, through their error. I think it's about 50/50 with Love. Think about the tipped passes that have ended up as INTs. Some of those are when the receiver didn't make the catch but should have, and there are those where the ball was thrown so badly that the tip happened because the receiver couldn't corral the ball. In other words, Love isn't afraid to throw the ball into traffic, because he trusts himself and his receivers. Sometimes bad, but more than not, it's good. They make the plays.

Love is still a beginner at QB. He'll get better as he goes along. So will all those receivers. In all honestly, I don't think anyone out there has a better combination of QBs, RBs, TEs, and WRs in the game. Think about that for a moment. We have a huge depth factor in our skills positions on offense. That is key to moving forward.

 

[milani]

Oh yeah. Richard’s hands were like glue. Obviously he was like a Turtle after the catch though. If he caught a 8 yard pass he was good for at least 0.5 yard after the catch.
Doubs has very good hands and exceptional in contested coverage.

That maybe why Rodgers was ideal for that 1st Hail Mary.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The rest of our receivers are pretty much all over the place in talent. None of them quite measuring up to these two guys in their specific roles on the team. But, despite that, this mix of talent is what makes the Packers so darned dangerous.

Don't forget about Reed.

I consider Reed to be the best overall WR on the team. I also think he is being under used.

Surprisingly, Reed's best 3 games of the season? All came in the Packers only 3 loses, which were also against the 3 best teams in the NFC.

Eagles: 4 catches, 138 yds. 1 TD

Vikings: 7/139/1

Lions: 5/113

 

[gopkrs]

It was a terrible miss. But he has been catching the ball really well this season. I would not shy away from him.

 

[OldSchool101]

Love is still a beginner at QB. He'll get better as he goes along. So will all those receivers.

Exactly what I was thinking. We sometimes forget that Love is basically in the middle of just a 2nd season as a starter. A season muddled with injuries that have kept him unstable. I do think he’s finally recovered and gotten his bearings in just the last 2 games.
That said, one of his trademarks is he needs continuity and if he gets it he turns on the juice.
That and he’s just still learning the nuances of being our leader. He’s a baby in terms of starting QB’s. Ok maybe a Toddler, but you get the picture.

As you said, the players around him are still in their relative infancy. Many Receivers (including RBs TEs) need a good 2-3 full seasons to really start clicking. Kraft is a guy that could really help him in a Kittle sort of way. I don’t think he’s involved enough and I’m agreeing with Tom Brady on that remark. He instantly gravitates towards Kraft. He’s mostly unrealized potential.

 

[Magooch]

I would add also that not only is there a distinction between INTs that are the QB’s fault and the WR’s fault but also that there is a distinction between “bad decision” INTs and “bad execution” INTs. And to be clear Love has certainly had some of both. But like last week for instance - right idea/decision, just didn’t hit the throw quite right and it ended up being an overthrow and pick. But I think those are more forgivable than the ones that are just bad decisions.

 

[Poppa San]

Not whining about an 8-3 start, but even that is only good for third in the NFC North.

They are the best 3rd place team since the 1970 merger. IOW no other 8-3 team has been in 3rd place.

At minimum it slows Samuel down or there is impact.

Yeah about that KO return. Big dud to Bo Melton. Right after Deebo got through the hole created by the hold Bo thought he could bowl him over instead of trying to wrap up. Big dud for Bo on that one. Bo didn't have a good day. I saw Cox get sucked in and losing contain on a few runs too.

 

[OldSchool101]

I would add also that not only is there a distinction between INTs that are the QB’s fault and the WR’s fault but also that there is a distinction between “bad decision” INTs and “bad execution” INTs. And to be clear Love has certainly had some of both. But like last week for instance - right idea/decision, just didn’t hit the throw quite right and it ended up being an overthrow and pick. But I think those are more forgivable than the ones that are just bad decisions.

Love does have a few things to clean up. His mechanics aren’t always sound and that’s been observed by several people in the know. Although in 2024 specifically, I think it is more a mixture of a few bad decisions per game and some lower body injury resonating for several games.

Love had only played 2 games post injury that I feel like he’s at or close to 100% health. In his last 2 games after the Bye, his average?

13/20 65.0%
212 yards
1.5TD 0.5INT (3:1 ratio)
110.35% Passer rating

Really nothing alarming. Also I might point out both opposing Defenses were Top 10 in scoring and in many other categories. So he did that against 2 very good Defensive opponents.

For a full picture this is his last 2 opponents extrapolated out a full season.

221/350 (65%)
3,604 yards
25.5TD
8.5INT
110% Passer

That’s not All Pro stuff, but against 2023 QB’s he’s

#17 Completion %
#16 Passing Yards
#10 TD’s
#12 INT
#2 Passer rating

That’s against the current 2024 #6 and #13 rated Passing Defense
(or call it a Top #10 ranked pass D)

 

[pacmaniac]

Watson is a little baffling. At times he looks like he can catch anything. But on a pass WRs must dream about, in full stride with solid separation and the end zone right in front of him - he gets "paddle hands", good way to describe it.

And I'm with you - I don't want to ear excuses about the weather in GB. Gimme a break.

What I know for sure is that Watson won't ever get close to being a #1 WR until he makes those catches on a regular basis. That was a big play and he flat-out choked.

He's like MVS 2.0. Fast and can make some big plays. Also has a problem dropping wide open bombs.

 

[Thirteen Below]

That was on Safety Evan Williams. He missed the exchange as Kittle passed the LB heading deep into the Paint. Evan bit on a WR on the other side that was hooking outside just for a split second, but that WR was covered up and it was unnecessary.

I've rewatched that play a dozen times, and I agree that at least one Packer defender was confused about his coverage responsibilities there, but I'm no longer sure it's either Walker or Williams. I think it might be more on Bullard - although Walker could have helped by at least disrupting Kittle's route on his way into the end zone.

It looked like Bullard was on Kittle, and Walker responsible for McAffery if he came out of the backfield.

Valentine was on Jennings, on the outside edge - but at the snap, Bullard left Kittle uncovered to join Valentine in doubling up Jennings.

Bullard and Valentine together quickly boxed Jennings out of the play, and Bullard disengaged from Jennings and cut back inside. But by that time, Kittle was already racing past Walker toward the back of the end zone, so Bullard turned toward McAffery coming out of the backfield. But it was too late, the ball was already in the air on its way to Kittle.

Kittle may not have been Walker's assignment, but if he was Bullard's man, the veteran Walker had plenty of time to realize the coverage was blown and Bullard now needed help with Kittle - and that he (Walker) was the only man on the field now who could do anything about Kittle.

Instead, he just let him brush past him unimpeded to the back of the end zone.

The best I can say is that maybe he assumed Williams had picked up the coverage on Kittle behind him, but even so - Kittle went past him just 3 yards from the line of scrimmage; why would Walker not make even a minimal effort to hit him coming off the line and disrupt his route? He had absolutely no interest in Kittle whatsoever; just couldn't have been bothered.

It may very well not have been Walker's fault that the coverage broke down at the beginning, but it looks to me as though he had a couple of opportunities to save the play if his situational awareness and reaction time had been better.

Action starts at 5:06.

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I do think at some point one has to question his IQ. Does he have the football IQ to play in the middle. I don't think he does and that's fine.

I don't think he does, either. Wonderlic scores aren't the be-all, end-all for judging a player's football IQ, but Walker's Wonderlic is 9. I don't think it's a coincidence that he makes so many dumb plays.

Remember Bryce Young's 4th and 1 quarterback sneak through the wide-open "A" gap in last year's Carolina game? That was totally, 100% on Walker. Walker was wearing the green dot that day, and while he was setting the D, Nixon spotted that wide-open "A" gap and moved to cover it. Walker waved him back 4 yards, and told him to leave it alone. You can see the two of them arguing, with Nixon pointing to the huge hole and throwing his hands up in the air, but Walker just shook his head and waved him away.

Sure enough, the instant the ball was snapped, Young headed straight for the huge hole. So did Nixon, and he made a superhuman effort to get there before Young. But Young only had a yard to go, and Nixon had at least 4. He still damned near beat Young to the hole, but fell just a half a second short.

Walker was a project from the beginning, and I give him credit for getting that temper of his under control the first couple of years, but I don't think he'll ever rise to the level of his draft position. Lafleur was very patient with him, but he just is who he is. I think we're always going to get only so much out of him.

 

[Thirteen Below]

They are the best 3rd place team since the 1970 merger. IOW no other 8-3 team has been in 3rd place.

Wow! Great stat. Thank you! That's one of those little details that sometimes can add a whole lotta perspective in just one sentence.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Watson does have a problem hanging on to the football. That will change though as he gains experience. If you watch, you'll see his hands aren't always in the right position to make the catches. That comes through coaching, and repetition. What he does do, and it's essential, is find ways to gain a step on defenders quite frequently, and that's something you either have, or don't have, based on speed, and ability to rotate your hips to change direction. When he solves the hands problem, he's going to be a load to contend with.

I'm so glad to hear someone else sees Watson this way, as well. I agree with every word you say. The man is simply not as bad as so many people insist he is; he's a lot better than most people seem to give him credit for.

I'm a big fan of Watson; I know he disappoints sometims, but I hope some of us can remember that for the first two years of his career Donald Driver - one of the most successful and beloved wide receivers in Packer history - had a catch rate of 50% and 42%. Compared to Watson's career 58%.

But the Packers knew they had somethng special with Driver, so they stuck with him, and he retired as Green Bay's all-time leading receiver. Which (considering Green Bay's legendary success as a passing team) is no small accomplishment.

But for his first 2 or 3 years in Green Bay, a huge number of Packer fans wanted him court martialed and shot. It seemed like every single Monday, all you heard on the radio talk shows was *****ing about why Driver hadn't been cut.

Remember also that for the first 3 or 4 years of James Jones' career, his nickname with the fans was "Alligator Arms". His hands were terrible; it was like he was playing with boxing gloves. Fans used to cringe when Favre fired a pass at him, wondering whether it would be intercepted when it bounced off his chest. But today, most Packer fans remember him very fondly, and would love to have him back.

Greg Jennings played here for 10 years, and his career catch rate (58.9%) was only .7% better than Watson's (58.2%). 5 of his 10 seasons were lower than Christian's career average so far.

But people don't seem to remember any of them that way...

Some of Green Bay's best receivers were not stars in college; they were later draft picks, and the Packers had to work patiently with them and coach them up. And I don't see many people today complaining that we held onto them so long.

I'm a big supporter of Watson; while (yes) he does need to improve his ball awareness, I think he's worth coaching as he does. He's a great teammate, very unselfish, never complains. Supports his teammates, everyone loves him.... he's a guy every team would liove to have.

And he has too many other skills for us to give up on him yet. A lot of young receivers are just starting to truly come into their potential at this point in the acreer arc. Get rid of him now, and we may be watching him rack up a half dozen all-pro seasons in Minnesota.

And here's a really important thing to remember about Watson - in his entire career (meaning, high school, college, and 3 years in the NFL) he has caught only 220 passes. Going into this season, he had only 200 receptions since he first started even playing football.

He didn't play varsity ball until his senior year in high school, and I really believe that much of what we are seeing is just a relative lack of game experience compared to other receivers who under the kind of microscope that players with his stature often are.

 

[Voyageur]

I'm so glad to hear someone else sees Watson this way, as well. I agree with every word you say. The man is simply not as bad as so many people insist he is; he's a lot better than most people seem to give him credit for.

I'm a big fan of Watson; I know he disappoints sometims, but I hope some of us can remember that for the first two years of his career Donald Driver - one of the most successful and beloved wide receivers in Packer history - had a catch rate of 50% and 42%. Compared to Watson's career 58%.

But the Packers knew they had somethng special with Driver, so they stuck with him, and he retired as Green Bay's all-time leading receiver. Which (considering Green Bay's legendary success as a passing team) is no small accomplishment.

But for his first 2 or 3 years in Green Bay, a huge number of Packer fans wanted him court martialed and shot. It seemed like every single Monday, all you heard on the radio talk shows was *****ing about why Driver hadn't been cut.

Remember also that for the first 3 or 4 years of James Jones' career, his nickname with the fans was "Alligator Arms". His hands were terrible; it was like he was playing with boxing gloves. Fans used to cringe when Favre fired a pass at him, wondering whether it would be intercepted when it bounced off his chest. But today, most Packer fans remember him very fondly, and would love to have him back.

Greg Jennings played here for 10 years, and his career catch rate (58.9%) was only .7% better than Watson's (58.2%). 5 of his 10 seasons were lower than Christian's career average so far.

But people don't seem to remember any of them that way...

Some of Green Bay's best receivers were not stars in college; they were later draft picks, and the Packers had to work patiently with them and coach them up. And I don't see many people today complaining that we held onto them so long.

I'm a big supporter of Watson; while (yes) he does need to improve his ball awareness, I think he's worth coaching as he does. He's a great teammate, very unselfish, never complains. Supports his teammates, everyone loves him.... he's a guy every team would liove to have.

And he has too many other skills for us to give up on him yet. A lot of young receivers are just starting to truly come into their potential at this point in the acreer arc. Get rid of him now, and we may be watching him rack up a half dozen all-pro seasons in Minnesota.

And here's a really important thing to remember about Watson - in his entire career (meaning, high school, college, and 3 years in the NFL) he has caught only 220 passes. Going into this season, he had only 200 receptions since he first started even playing football.

He didn't play varsity ball until his senior year in high school, and I really believe that much of what we are seeing is just a relative lack of game experience compared to other receivers who under the kind of microscope that players with his stature often are.

No doubt about it, Watson needs time to develop his full potential. When you look at that catch count, it's staggering thinking he's that relatively inexperienced at actually catching passes. This is one of those little things that fans don't see, and don't understand. It takes time to become "football savvy."