Blocking Aaron Donald

[Mondio]

Yeah. Thanks for digging that up.

One thing to note: the Rams boast the best OLine in the league.

and I don't think the Packers bring much pressure without blitzing. That said, if Breeland is even close to capable and getting Jaire back, I do like our matchups in the back half of the defense. I'm more concerned about the up front stuff.

 

[Dantés]

and I don't think the Packers bring much pressure without blitzing. That said, if Breeland is even close to capable and getting Jaire back, I do like our matchups in the back half of the defense. I'm more concerned about the up front stuff.

It will help them that Kupp won't play. For my money, he's the most important guy in that WR corps.

 

[JRobinson]

and I don't think the Packers bring much pressure without blitzing. That said, if Breeland is even close to capable and getting Jaire back, I do like our matchups in the back half of the defense. I'm more concerned about the up front stuff.

Interesting. Especially with Kupp out... although we didn’t miss him against the 49ers.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't know how much substituting the Rams do on defense, but I think one of the keys to the game will be Rodgers and the offense going back to playing a bit of hurry up offense, in the sense of not huddling up too often. For whatever reason and I am sure someone will correct me with stats if I am wrong, the Packers offense seems to play much better when they speed things up and keep the defense on their heels by not being able to substitute.

I also don't mean waiting until the 4th quarter and being down by 21 to start doing this.
First possession, go up tempo!

 

[Dantés]

I don't know how much substituting the Rams do on defense, but I think one of the keys to the game will be Rodgers and the offense going back to playing a bit of hurry up offense, in the sense of not huddling up too often. For whatever reason and I am sure someone will correct me with stats if I am wrong, the Packers offense seems to play much better when they speed things up and keep the defense on their heels by not being able to substitute.

I also don't mean waiting until the 4th quarter and being down by 21 to start doing this.
First possession, go up tempo!

According to their website's depth chart, their base "starters" are:

Donald- 88%
Suh- 87%
Brockers- 66%
Longacre- 42%
Ebukam- 80%
Littleton- 94%
Barron- 30%*
Peters- 86%
Shields- 42%
Johnson- 95%
Joyner- 95%

*Barron wasn't healthy to start the season-- he's played ~70% since coming back

Their next highest snap counts are:

Robey-Coleman, NB, 56%
Marqui Christian, S, 42%
John Franklin-Myers, DL, 39%
Troy Hill, CB, 37%*
Ethan Westbrooks, 21%

*Hill isn't listed as the starter, but he's really been running as the starter in recent weeks.

The other guys with significant %'s aren't rotational players, but rather former starters who got hurt/replaced (e.g. Talib, Wilson).

I'm not doing a comparative breakdown against all other teams, but from the hip this seems like minimal rotation. Longacre is the only front 7 defender averaging under 65% of the snaps.

The most interesting takeaway for me is how many snaps they play with only one true edge rusher. That's really not where the defense makes their money. This isn't great news as it makes the Packers biggest OL advantage, Bakhtiari and Bulaga, mostly irrelevant. 2 of their 19 sacks have come from edge rushers. Our tackles will probably have a totally clean game and it might not even matter.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I don't have that handy, but I did see this from NFL Matchup on Espn:

Rams #1 in pressure % at 36.9.

Packers #5 at 32%.

https://twitter.com/NFLMatchup/status/1054724159295705088

I'm aware of the pressure ranking. I was looking for some color as to how they are getting it. According to FO, last season they were 21st. in pressure frequency with a 4 man rush; 23rd. with 5+ rushing. And they blitzed a lot, 6th. ranked at 34% of snaps.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/pressure-number-pass-rushers-2017

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Perhaps more Williams and less Jones.

Most posters on the forum will call for McCarthy to be fired if that happens once again.

Do you have a blitz frequency and ranking for the Rams?

Unfortunately PFF doesn't publish those numbers. They ranked the pass rush units in the league after week 6 though which you can access here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-pass-rush-units-after-week-6

The Vikings offense is freaking legit #truth.

The Vikings feature an average offense.

I know a lot of the metrics (i.e. pff) argue that right now. I actually would take the Packers' unit over them when Bulaga is healthy. Bakhtiari is the best pass protector in the game, and they're pretty comparable across the board from there.

While that might be true in pass protection the Rams offensive line is definitely better blocking for the run.

I don't know how much substituting the Rams do on defense, but I think one of the keys to the game will be Rodgers and the offense going back to playing a bit of hurry up offense, in the sense of not huddling up too often. For whatever reason and I am sure someone will correct me with stats if I am wrong, the Packers offense seems to play much better when they speed things up and keep the defense on their heels by not being able to substitute.

The Packers don't average significantly more yards per attempt using a no huddle offense (6.74) compared to huddling before the snap (6.01) this season.

 

[OldSchool101]

Packers should go into this game with about 10 screens drawn up. The Rams are going to play man to man I can almost guarantee it. They don’t fear our WRs or offensive line.

I hope you are right. While the Rams are formidable covering the #1 WR (Adams) thus far in 2018, they are pedestrian with WRs 3 and above which Having Cobb OR Geronimo is a major factor, but us possibly having the choice of activating nearly any or all receivers at our disposal? This will be a key factor.
We also match up pretty well in the TE utility usage as it’s showing modest improvement in that area each week and our running game is just good enough to punish the Rams if they let their guard down. While everyone is talking LA this and LA that.. (and they should be) it’s not our Offense that I’m remotely concerned about, it’s our D handling their moderate to long game plan and containing their running attack. It might be wise for Pettine to gamble on our passing D and go single high Safety and bring the alternate into the box for both blitz and run support. Otherwise they will gash us repeatedly. I watched the gashing happen consistently over the past several weeks dumbfounded why opponents didn’t bring run support and can’t conceive Pettine not seeing it in film over this long 2 week hiatus.

If we can limit the Rams Offense to a moderately low 1st half score
~(16pts) then my prediction is that we will be very much in this game deep into the 4th quarter.. and that is not the type of battle Wade wants to entertain
IF GB gets behind more than 2 scores early? this will become a Ram fest with Suh stomping on Rodgers knee or worse while listening to Elvis’ “in the ghetto”
Rams 33 GB 24

 

[McKnowledge]

Surprising to me, the Rams are tied with 7 other teams with only the 8th most team Sacks (19) this season. The Packers are just one sack back at 18. So yes, Donald, Suh and Brockers are kind of scary, but teams we have already faced (Lions, Bears, Vikings and Bills) have an equal amount or more sacks than the Rams. But yes, with 8 sacks on his own, Donald is going to have to be game planned for and could have a "Mack like" game.

Obviously, none of this takes into account who each of these teams have faced so far this year.

Also gotta think about QB pressures

 

[Mondio]

I hope you are right. While the Rams are formidable covering the #1 WR (Adams) thus far in 2018, they are pedestrian with WRs 3 and above which Having Cobb OR Geronimo is a major factor, but us possibly having the choice of activating nearly any or all receivers at our disposal? This will be a key factor.
We also match up pretty well in the TE utility usage as it’s showing modest improvement in that area each week and our running game is just good enough to punish the Rams if they let their guard down. While everyone is talking LA this and LA that.. (and they should be) it’s not our Offense that I’m remotely concerned about, it’s our D handling their moderate to long game plan and containing their running attack. It might be wise for Pettine to gamble on our passing D and go single high Safety and bring the alternate into the box for both blitz and run support. Otherwise they will gash us repeatedly. I watched the gashing happen consistently over the past several weeks dumbfounded why opponents didn’t bring run support and can’t conceive Pettine not seeing it in film over this long 2 week hiatus.

If we can limit the Rams Offense to a moderately low 1st half score
~(16pts) then my prediction is that we will be very much in this game deep into the 4th quarter.. and that is not the type of battle Wade wants to entertain
IF GB gets behind more than 2 scores early? this will become a Ram fest with Suh stomping on Rodgers knee or worse while listening to Elvis’ “in the ghetto”
Rams 33 GB 24

I'm sure Pettine sees it in film. I think they probably will give up some big runs in certain parts of the field to protect against the big pass. Once the endzone becomes another boundary, they probably plan on tightening that up, and that's ok. The defense is going to be a work in progress all year, it's new to everyone and missing some pieces.

 

[OldSchool101]

Also gotta think about QB pressures

True and the Rams have the personnel to make life uncomfortable for #12. It’s imperative we open using what I’ll coin as a “3 min drill”.

The intensity of our WR core using fast break routes and expecting the ball within 1.5 sec is paramount. Also the receivers, TEs included, need to be fishhooking back to the ball in those QB designed roll outs and sideline scrambles. Take what they give us and move the chains. Keeping Goff on the sidelines with short ball control is nearly as important as scoring.
Think of it like you would game clock management in the waning minutes of a contest. Often churning the clock and getting first downs is as brutal as scoring or worse for an opponent D mindset. I Challenge our O to win the clock control over 32+ min. Keeping our Defense on the sideline is key.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Most posters on the forum will call for McCarthy to be fired if ["more Williams and less Jones"] happens once again.

I don't know about "most", but surely some. No accounting for taste.

My response, "more Williams and less Jones", was an answer to the concern of how to contain the Rams evidently formidable pass rush. Williams is the better blocker by a meaningful margin so that seems a bit obvious if that's the concern.

Now, I expect Jones to get the start as he did against SF. If the Packers can move the ball on the ground with Jones, control the rush with play action, while emphasizing getting the ball out fast in a ball control passing emphasis, while keeping the game close, more Jones might be in order. So, there's that.

If it's another one these games where the Packers get into a hole, then that ball control game plan where getting the pass out fast is a priority, if that is in fact the game plan, goes out the window. Then the game is put on Rodgers' shoulders going downfield as we've seen before in digging out holes, and that's where Williams has more utility. It's probably worth noting, even if nobody wants to hear it, Williams is still progressing as runner, and had a nice set of carries against SF. He's not chopped liver running the ball. McCarthy probably appreciates Williams limiting negative plays and getting a yard or three out of nothing and staying out of long yardage even if fans do not. He's a well rounded back even if he doesn't generate the Jones splashes.[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately PFF doesn't publish those numbers. They ranked the pass rush units in the league after week 6 though which you can access here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-pass-rush-units-after-week-6

Actually, that does provide a partial answer the question while raising another.

Team Pass Rushing Grade: 84.4
Team Pressure Percentage: 41% (2nd)
Team Pressure Percentage when Blitzing: 53.6% (17th)

Though we don't know the blitz frequency from those numbers they do suggest they're #1 or close to it when rushing 4, but mediocre when blitzing. That could be because they rarely blitz more than 1 player which would drag down the ranking relative to teams that routinely blitz more 1. Or maybe their blitzers are not very good at it.

 

[Conso]

Suh will go after that knee after a sack, during a sack, etc. Gotta watch out for him and his dirty antics.

Yeah Suh is known for being a dirty player, always has been probably always will be. Sad part is he has the skill/talent to still be really good without playing dirty, he CHOOSES to play dirty.

 

[Alex]

The Vikings feature an average offense.

And sadly enough they've been better than the Packers offense.

 

[Mike McCarthy]

Pad level.

 

[Poppa San]

And sadly enough they've been better than the Packers offense.

By what metric? Packers lead the Vikings in most yardage stats. And the scoring per game difference boils down to just over one missed field goal over the course of the season. Or an interception overturned due to overzealous officiating.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Pad level.

Just like clockwork!

BTW, I have always been afraid to ask....what level should they be worn at?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Mike McCarthy]

Just like clockwork!

BTW, I have always been afraid to ask....what level should they be worn at?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Kind of a foolish question son, those need to be worn high enough to catch the drippings.

 

[OldSchool101]

Just like clockwork!

BTW, I have always been afraid to ask....what level should they be worn at?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

I’m not sure if it’s just a coincidence but the newest diapers come with a yellow line and it turns green when compromised. Just another way to show our support of the GBP!
Now that’s funny right there! Get ‘er done!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Actually, that does provide a partial answer the question while raising another.

Team Pass Rushing Grade: 84.4
Team Pressure Percentage: 41% (2nd)
Team Pressure Percentage when Blitzing: 53.6% (17th)

Though we don't know the blitz frequency from those numbers they do suggest they're #1 or close to it when rushing 4, but mediocre when blitzing. That could be because they rarely blitz more than 1 player which would drag down the ranking relative to teams that routinely blitz more 1. Or maybe their blitzers are not very good at it.

Using PFF's pass rush snap count I came up with this: The Rams have used an average of 4.71 pass rushers per dropback. In comparison the Packers seem to blitz more often with an average of 4.92.

And sadly enough they've been better than the Packers offense.

I don't expect that to be the case at the end of the season.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Using PFF's pass rush snap count I came up with this: The Rams have used an average of 4.71 pass rushers per dropback. In comparison the Packers seem to blitz more often with an average of 4.92..

Thanks and this makes sense. When you have the front D-line that the Rams have, there is going to be less of a need to send more guys on a blitz to pressure or sack the opposing QB. Feels like the Packers almost need to send 2-3 guys on a blitz to accomplish what the Rams do while sending 0-1 guy.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Using PFF's pass rush snap count I came up with this: The Rams have used an average of 4.71 pass rushers per dropback. In comparison the Packers seem to blitz more often with an average of 4.92.

That's interesting considering PFF says the Packers generate pressure 67.9% of the time when blitzing (5th. rank) while the Rams generate pressure only 53.6% of the time when blitzing (17th. rank) with the Packers using only 0.2 additional rushers per blitz. I'd say this indictes the Packers are the better pass rush team when blitzing, which I do not think is the conventional wisdom.

It's as though the blitzers neutralize the Donald and Suh advantage. Perhaps it's a function of Donald and Suh being allowed to free lance their pass rushes while the blitzers are not set up with a predefined lane to attack, slowing their roll. Or their blitzers just are not good at it. Hard to say without watching a bunch of Rams tape.

PFF has tallied overall Packer pressure at 38% of passes (T-4th) vs the Rams 41% (2nd). It may be worth noting that the 3% difference, 3 passes out of 100, indicates the Rams generate pressure on about 1 additional pass per game, while the Packers use only that 0.2 additional blitzer when they do blitz. I don't think conventional wisdom acknowleges these slight differences.

As you may recall, we had a protracted discussion a few years back relating to an alternate PFF pass rusher ranking that they have ditched evidently. At least I haven't seen it in a couple of years. In that ranking, if I recall correctly, they awarded 1.0 points for a sack, 0.75 for a hit and 0.75 for a hurry and then tablulated on a per snap basis. Without rehashing the matter in full, I found these point allocations to be quite skewed, where hurries are grossly overvalued relative to sacks while hits were inexplicably valued as equal to a hurry. A question remains as to whether in their current rankings of players and teams they continue to use some like relative valuations. For whatever reason, their current team rankings do not correleate to the pressure percentages they provide.

The only source I know of that I have access to for "hits" is the ESPN box scores. They do not tally "hurries". For some odd reason, ESPN does not aggregate that data into their player or team summary stats. In any case, just for yucks, I've aggregated sack and hit data, the high value pass rushes. Oddly, both ESPN and NFL.com show 18 Packer team sacks whereas if you add up the individual player stats they total only 17 at both sites. So I've included 1 team sack and 1 team hit to the aggregated player totals (sacks evidently also count as a hits at ESPN):

Packers:

• 6 games / 18 sacks/ 33 QB hits
• It's no surprise that it's been an ensemble effort with 11 players recording at least a 1/2 sack with Martinez and Fackrell leading with 3 apiece. 12 players have recorded a hit with Gilbert leading with 5.
• The data is somewhat skewed by 7 sacks / 11 hits in the Bills game; 11 sacks and 22 hits in the other 5 games.

Rams

• 7 games/ 19 sacks / 41 QB hits
• That's fractionally fewer sacks per game than the Packers while recording one additional hit per game
• It's also no suprise this is less of an ensemble effort than the Packers with 8 players recording a sack with Donald leading with 8, Suh next with 3. Donald leads in hits with 13, Suh next with 8, Franklin-Myers next with 5, with those 3 players accounting for 63% of their hits.
• The data is skewed by two games, Vikings (week 4) and 49ers (week 7), where the Rams recorded 11 sacks and 20 hits; with the other 5 games accounting for 7 sacks and 21 hits.
• Donald reccorded 6 of his sacks and 9 of his hits in those two games while being held to 2 sacks and 4 hits in the other 5 games. It's worth observing Donald recorded no sacks and 1 hit in the first 3 games of the season, so he's been gathering momentum.

Conventional wisdom looks pretty solid on a couple of points and goes to the OP topic: don't let Donald go off and keep Suh off the QB. 5 of 7 teams seemed to have done a good job limiting the Donald damage whereas Suh was not going off in a compromise in those games. So, there's that.

Where conventional wisdom falls flat is in the hue and cry over the Packer "weak" pass rush in comparison to the highly priced and concerning Donald and Suh. On a team basis, the Packers and Rams pass rush are not very far apart.

This is especially the case given that when we add up opponent passes + sacks (an imperfect but close representation of pass-plays-against which does not include QB scramble runs), we find:

Packers: 203 pass snaps against
Rams: 255 pass snaps against

On a sacks/hits per snap basis, there's little to differentiate these teams. We just might have to give the Packers the edge.

And if one were to believe my ommission of hurries makes a difference, consider passer rating against in the following post.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Besides the pass rush where Packers v. Rams is about a push (see above post):

Passer-rating-against (ESPN): Packers 92.5, Rams 89.9

Forced fumble recoveries (ESPN): Packers 4, Rams 5 (including special teams)

Defensive Red Zone TD % (teamrankings.com): Packers 64.7%, Rams 55.6%

Opponent 3rd. down conversions (ESPN): Packers 36.3%, Rams 42.4%

Opponent 4th. down conversions (ESPN): Packers 0.0% (0-2), Rams 57.1% (4-7)

Rush Yards per Carry: Packers 4.5, Rams 4.7

There's not a whole lot to separate these defenses statistically.

Lets try not to turn the ball over in our end this time, OK?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Besides the pass rush where Packers v. Rams is about a push (see above post):

Passer-rating-against (ESPN): Packers 92.5, Rams 89.9

Forced fumble recoveries (ESPN): Packers 4, Rams 5 (including special teams)

Defensive Red Zone TD % (teamrankings.com): Packers 64.7%, Rams 55.6%

Opponent 3rd. down conversions (ESPN): Packers 36.3%, Rams 42.4%

Opponent 4th. down conversions (ESPN): Packers 0.0% (0-2), Rams 57.1% (4-7)

Rush Yards per Carry: Packers 4.5, Rams 4.7

There's not a whole lot to separate these defenses statistically.

Lets try not to turn the ball over in our end this time, OK?

The Rams defense isn't any better than the Packers one but unfortunately their offense has performed at a higher level.

Passer rating: Rams 112.2 Packers 97.7

Turnovers: Rams 6 Packers 8

Red Zone TD percentage: Rams 56.8% Packers 50.0%

3rd down conversion: Rams 45.7% Packers 40.2%

4th down conversion: Rams 50.0% (3-6) Packers 37.5% (3-8)

Rush yards per carry: Rams 4.89 Packers 4.71

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Rams defense isn't any better than the Packers one but unfortunately their offense has performed at a higher level.

Passer rating: Rams 112.2 Packers 97.7

Turnovers: Rams 6 Packers 8

Red Zone TD percentage: Rams 56.8% Packers 50.0%

3rd down conversion: Rams 45.7% Packers 40.2%

4th down conversion: Rams 50.0% (3-6) Packers 37.5% (3-8)

Rush yards per carry: Rams 4.89 Packers 4.71

They are 7-0, so they're doing something right.

One quibble--citing turnovers along with passer rating effectively double counts interceptions since they are already embedded in the passer ratings. Rams = 1 lost fumble, Packers = 6.

One thing I'd note is the 16% spread in the red zone when combining offensive and defensive differentials. If, for example, each team gets 4 tries in the red zone, the difference between 8 TDs (56 points) vs. 8 FGs (24 points) = 32 points x 0.16 = a 5 point differential. Giving the Rams 3 points for home field, and the red zone differential in that example gets you to the current 8 point spread.

We also didn't discuss penalties. I didn't get into that in the defensive evaluation simply because I could not find a breakdown of offensive vs. defensive. Penalties are typically omitted in statisical overviews of team performance. The Packers are averaging 8.2 per game (29th.) and 11.5 on the road vs. the Rams 5.6 per game (4th.) and 4.3 at home. If that kind of home-away spread on an admittedly limited sample were to hold, that spells trouble.

No matter how we slice and dice the stats, it all gets a little meta when it comes down to one game. The stats are for context and texture, but games rarely play out as the stats would suggest.

Since we watch the Packers every week and discuss them ad nauseum, what is the overall eyewash of this team? Wild inconsistencies and a mistake-prone propensitiy, from half to half or game to game, from fumbling the ball 3 times inside their own 30 in a half of play, to missing a rash of FGs, to letting a guy get open deep twice whose game log looks like this [http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/15839/marquise-goodwin] to letting the 49ers gash on the ground early and shutting it down late to those frustrating penalties.

It's easy to say, "we need to clean some things up," as though that's just some practice and coaching exercise. It comes down to player talent, experience and the ability to take the game plan onto the field and excute. That said, the Packers pushing the the needle toward fewer mistakes and greater consistency is not a high bar. Conversely, the statistical picture of the Rams does not say "greatness", and my eyewash of that Denver game says the same. It's more about balance and consistency for them.

It's easy to say most games come down to turnovers, big play TDs and red zone performance, probably because it is true. This game with these teams probably more so than most.

It looks like the Packers will have all hands on deck for this game, so the Packers have that going for them, with the uncommon full complement of corners and WRs, though how many snaps or how impaired one or the other might exhibit remains to be seen.