Week 5 vs Cowboys - Not quite invincible at all

[HardRightEdge]

I've not made a full analysis yet, but superficially I struggle to see how Dallas is giving only 3 1/2 points. Maybe the line will move some with Adams now declared out for Sunday.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I gave reasons for playing someone else in spurts. You may not agree with them but that does not mean they are not valid reasons. I don't want to wait till he goes down again to know whether or not we have someone who can play and Spriggs is proof positive that the coaches can't see what they have simply from practice.

Once again, the Packers shouldn't use regular season games to examine if they have a decent backup in case Bulaga suffers an injury. No team in the league does it that way.

BTW I don't see you commenting about the mediocrity of Russell Wilson anymore. Just to point out that you are not always correct.

I'm well aware to be wrong on a lot of stuff. I have no idea about the relevance when discussing about the scenario of replacing a healthy Bulaga during a game though.

 

[greengold]

As long as Bulaga is healthy enough to play there's no reason for another player to receive snaps at right tackle.



It's surprising it took you four games to already give up on the new head coach



I don't expect Dexter Williams to have a significant impact on Sunday.

Why, exactly?

My own reasoning is there must be more emphasis on production from our OL. Both run blocking and pass pro. The run blocking in particular this 4 game stretch has been atrocious. They ought to be putting it together by now.

If they DO get it together, Dexter could light it up, along with Aaron Jones.

Stealing a Win in DAL ought to heavily involve a sound, dedicated running attack by GB. Keep the rush off of Rodgers and pound the rock, wearing down their front 7, thereby opening up our play action.

Dexter is also reliable in short yardage. Gotta have blocking though. That’s key.

 

[rmontro]

Why, exactly?Stealing a Win in DAL ought to heavily involve a sound, dedicated running attack by GB. Keep the rush off of Rodgers and pound the rock, wearing down their front 7, thereby opening up our play action.

Agree, but the question is are they capable of doing it?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Why, exactly?

My own reasoning is there must be more emphasis on production from our OL. Both run blocking and pass pro. The run blocking in particular this 4 game stretch has been atrocious. They ought to be putting it together by now.

If they DO get it together, Dexter could light it up, along with Aaron Jones.

Dexter is also reliable in short yardage. Gotta have blocking though. That’s key.

I agree the offensive line needs to drastically improve blocking for the run. But as long as Aaron Jones stays healthy there's no reason to expect Dexter Williams to receive a significant amount of touches.

In addition the Packers activating Tra Carson from the practice squad doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in Dexter.

 

[weeds]

I've not made a full analysis yet, but superficially I struggle to see how Dallas is giving only 3 1/2 points. Maybe the line will move some with Adams now declared out for Sunday.

You and me both. I'm aware that Dallas played some pretty crappy teams at the outset of the season but fail to see how that has anything to do with today's game.

Like it or not, Dallas has a pretty talented team on both sides of the ball, particularly at the line of scrimmage and frankly, the Pack don't seem to match up real well with Dallas in my opinion.

I don't want to be a poopie-pants downer so I'm leaving it at that. Truthfully, I don't think Dallas is THAT much better than the Pack .... I just don't know what to make of the Packers yet. After all, the pre-season just ended for our starters and there's bound to be some rust yet.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Once again, the Packers shouldn't use regular season games to examine if they have a decent backup in case Bulaga suffers an injury. No team in the league does it that way.

Since no team has known veteran quatities backing up every position, every team is at risk of using regular season games to examine whether they have a decent backup. Practice and preseason are one thing. Money games are something else entirely.

Even when a team has a known veteran quantity at a backup position they can find themselves in trouble anyway, such as Marshall Newhouse starting at left tackle for New England. He's on a one year minimum contract @ $930,000. I watched the Pats/Bills game. He's still the player we remember, that the league remembers, reflected in that contract. So many games, so little cap.

Gostkowski joined Wynn on IR this week. Hoodie signed Mike Nugent off the street with such little confidence he also signed Younghoe Koo to the practice squad, a career 3-6 on FGs, 1-4 from 40-49 yards. Younghoe might well be "examined" in regular season games before this season is over to see if he can "do this job".

 

[PackAttack12]

To me, Pettine has to adapt and sell out to stop Zeke on the ground, and trust the secondary to win against the Cowboys skill guys. Let Jaire take a less than 100% Amari Cooper out of the game, and dare someone other than Amari and Zeke to beat you. If Cobb goes for 10/115, so be it.

Stop Zeke, force Dak to throw in obvious throwing down situations.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Packers inactives:

Davante Adams
Dexter Williams
Tony Brown
Jamaal Williams
Tim Williams
Cole Madison
Adam Pankey

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Tyron Smith is inactive for the Cowboys, that's HUGE for us. They just can't let Dak run around like Lamar Jackson did in the preseason when the pressure is on.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Since no team has known veteran quatities backing up every position, every team is at risk of using regular season games to examine whether they have a decent backup. Practice and preseason are one thing. Money games are something else entirely.

Maybe you should read what I posted once again. I was replying to another poster suggesting to replace a healthy Bulaga with another tackle during the game to figure out if the Packers have a quality backup. That's utter nonsense.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Key Stats ("It's a Team Game" Edition)

This is a little premature after 4 games but patterns are emerging, so here goes. I'll put the conclusion first, feel free to read (or not) the rest:

Dallas by 7, with a + or - 2 point margin for error; Dallas covers the 3.5 point spread

Scoring (and preventing such), expecially TD scoring, flows through four key factors: 3rd./4th. down coversions, red zone TD coversions, +20 yard TD plays, and turnovers. Yards gained or surrendered only matter to the extent they flow through into performance in these aspects of the game.

I come by this 7 point call by funnelling the following data through my proprietary algorithm entitled "Kentucky Windage" .

1) 3rd. & 4th. Down Coversions

Edge: Dallas +1 (on a -2 to +2 scale)

Obviously, this is a key to moving the ball, getting to the red zone, gaining favorable time of possession to keep the opposing offense off the field, and maintaining favorable field position even if the possession does not result in a score.

Packers Offense:

• Dreadful on 3rd. down over the first 3 games; good last week going 6-11 with two on penalties; a still decent 4 of 9 without the opponent's help. Time of possession is middle of the leage at 30:29. Scott is 4th. in the league in number of punts with 23, two shy of the leader.
• Chicago and Minnesota's 3rd. down stop percentages are top 5, Denver middling, Philly below average.
• 0-2 on 4th. down

Dallas Defense

• 2nd. in the league in 3rd. down stops at 26.5%; 4-9 on 4th. down stops.
• Two of Dallas' opposing offenses are dead last on 3rd. down (Miami, Washington), 17th. (Giants) and 14th. (Saints).
• The Saints went 6-14 for 43%, an above average rate.

Dallas Offense

• 2nd. ranked in the league on 3rd. down at 52%; opponets 0-1 on 4th. down
• Opponent defenses on 3rd. down are ranked dead last (Miami, Washington), 23rd. (Giants), and 16th. (Saints).
• Dallas went 4-11 for 36% against the Saints, a little below average grade.

Packer Defense

• 12th. at 38% on 3rd. down; opponents 1-4 of 4th. down
• Opponent offenses on 3rd. down are ranked 1st. (Philly), 11th. (Minnesota), 15th. (Denver) and 24th. (Bears)
• Philly went 5-9, a very good 55%.

Summary

• Top line numbers would suggest a significant Dallas advantage on both sides of the ball, however Dallas' two games against dreadful Miami and Washington teams, rock bottom on 3rd. down on both sides of the ball, skews the numbers. Against better competition, the difference narrows considerably.
• You can go down a rabbit hole hole looking at level of competition. When looking at the list of opponents you'd also have to ask who those opponents played, and around in a circle. However, by any measure, Miami and Washington are so starkly bad teams it can't be overlooked as a factor in padding Dallas' numbers. There is also strong correlation in performance to top line numbers against better competion as noted above.
• On the numbers alone I'd give Dallas a +0.5 edge on the -2 to +2 scale, but I'm bumping that that +1 with Adams out.

2) Red Zone TD Conversions

Edge: Dallas +1.5 (on a -2 to +2 scale)

This might be the most underrated and underanalyzed aspect of winning and losing, offensively and defensively. If 3rd. and 4th. down conversions get you to the red zone, 4 point differentials between FGs and TDs are often deciders. With most games decided by 7 or fewer points, 2 TDs vs. 2 FGs in the red zone will be the difference more often than not. It is the story of the Packer season to date illustrated below.

Packer Offense

• Over the first three games the Packers led the league in red zone TD conversion % with 6 of 7 for 85.7%. That's not many opportunites, however, as the team struggled to convert 3rd. downs. Last week, it was 7 trips. 31 first downs will do that. It was 3 of 7 TD conversions, however, with the last two resulting in no TDs (and no points at all) being the deciding factor.
• The first 3-5 is pretty good performance. Adams was not on the field for those last two red zone failures. Packer red zone passing pivots off Adams whether he gets the ball or not. MVS was running an Adams route on the pick.
• Net-net, the Packers are sitting at 64%, 10th. ranked, but it's been a season of contrasts so far.
• Adams absence is not auspicious.

Dallas Defense

• 3rd. ranked at 36%. The Saints went 0-4, 4 FGs. Three tries were killed by a 10 yard penalty and 2 sacks.
• Solid.

Dallas Offense

• 1st. in the league at 77%. 50% last week, 1-2, against their best competition to date.

Packer Defense

• 19th. ranked at 60%. Philly hit on 5 of 5. Not good.

Summary

Dallas playing a couple of patsies notwithstanding, I give them a sizeable edge here. Adams absence is a factor.

3) +20 Yard TD Scoring

Edge: Dallas +0.5 (on -2 to +2 scale)

3rd. down conversions and red zone performace are less relevant to whatever extent a team scores long TDs or gives up long TDs, +20 from outside the red zone being my criteria.

Packers Offense

• MVS 40 yd. pass

Packers Defense

• Cook 75 yd. run
• Diggs 45 yard pass

Dallas Offense

• Jarwin 28 yd. pass
• Cooper 21 yd. pass
• Cobb 25 yd. pass
• Smith 51 yd. pass
• none in the last two games

Dallas Defense

• none

Summary

Like turnovers, regardless of a team's average performance, big play TDs are are impossible to project into a single game, especially on limited data. Tyron Smith is out; Cameron Fleming is in. That could put a damper on Dallas' deep passing. It sure can't help. Still I can't help but give Dallas a slight edge on +4 performace against the Packers -1; some individual player capabilities and vulnerabilites are evident.

4) Turnovers

Edge: Packers +1.0 (on a -2 to +2 scale)

A commentator in a recent broadcast (I think it was Collinsworth) stated that a turnover is worth 4.7 points without citing a source. Without seeing the math that arrived at that figure I'd say that's a little high. It indicates two turnovers should result in a little more than a TD and FG difference in scoring. I would presume that takes into account more than just plain points off turnovers. In any event, it seems high to me. Maybe 3.5, something like that. Anyhow:

Packers:

• 3 fumbles lost, 1 INT on offense
• 4 fumble recoveries, 4 INTs on defense
• Net +4; +1 per game is a very good number

Dallas:

• 2 fumbles lost, 3 INTs on offense
• 3 fumble recoveries, 1 INT on defense
• Net -1

 

[gopkrs]

Maybe you should read what I posted once again. I was replying to another poster suggesting to replace a healthy Bulaga with another tackle during the game to figure out if the Packers have a quality backup. That's utter nonsense.

Why I mentioned your previous attitude about Russel Wilson is because you constantly use such absolute terms in your responses. And you are most definitely not correct all the time. Since Bulaga will definitely not make it through the entire season; I think it would make sense not only to give him a few breaks, but also find out what we really have. Why wait for the inevitable and then throw in an unknown quantity? A real game is the only real test. If we don't have anyone; we should keep trying people out. I understand that no one does this. That does not change my opinion about it.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Maybe you should read what I posted once again. I was replying to another poster suggesting to replace a healthy Bulaga with another tackle during the game to figure out if the Packers have a quality backup. That's utter nonsense.

I read again what you wrote and it didn't help. What I needed to do is read what that guy wrote. Unfortunately I have no inclination to read every post in every exchange, so the occasional mistake will happen. I'll live with that.

So, yeah, what that guy proposed is not very smart and is never going to happen. Check that. Lock up the #1 seed before Week 17 and the money game tryouts can begin.

 

[PackAttack12]

Why I mentioned your previous attitude about Russel Wilson is because you constantly use such absolute terms in your responses. And you are most definitely not correct all the time. Since Bulaga will definitely not make it through the entire season; I think it would make sense not only to give him a few breaks, but also find out what we really have. Why wait for the inevitable and then throw in an unknown quantity? A real game is the only real test. If we don't have anyone; we should keep trying people out. I understand that no one does this. That does not change my opinion about it.

It just doesn’t work that way though with good offensive linemen. If Bulaga is healthy, he should and will play 100% of the snaps.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Since Bulaga will definitely not make it through the entire season

That's just the optimism we need around here. I will from now on always point to you as a shining example for the rest of the community.

Anyways.....

Pretty bummed that D. Williams got upended by Carson. I was really hoping for a breakout game from him. Any thoughts on what the problem is?

 

[Mondio]

Offensive lines work best with continuity. Wouldn’t make changes unless forced to

 

[gopkrs]

That's just the optimism we need around here. I will from now on always point to you as a shining example for the rest of the community.

Anyways.....

Pretty bummed that D. Williams got upended by Carson. I was really hoping for a breakout game from him. Any thoughts on what the problem is?

I actually liked Tra more in the preseason. It is my understanding that Williams just cannot pass block. All the runs I saw on tape of him at Notre Dame showed him running through giant holes. Maybe he needs a giant hole to be effective?

 

[gopkrs]

That's just the optimism we need around here. I will from now on always point to you as a shining example for the rest of the community.

Anyways.....

Pretty bummed that D. Williams got upended by Carson. I was really hoping for a breakout game from him. Any thoughts on what the problem is?

Don't see why we need optimism. I think we have a good team and can go all the way. Just want to be prepared for something that happens each year.

 

[gbgary]

well...we're up 14-0. the O is being resilient in the absence of adams. rodgers is playing well. aaron jones is kicking butt. there's been a jimmy graham sighting. that's most of the good news. the D is being gashed up the middle and no one can cover amari cooper. fortunately two ints, and 2 holding penalties have killed off the dallas drives. Go Pack!!

 

[Shaggy]

You and me both. I'm aware that Dallas played some pretty crappy teams at the outset of the season but fail to see how that has anything to do with today's game.

Like it or not, Dallas has a pretty talented team on both sides of the ball, particularly at the line of scrimmage and frankly, the Pack don't seem to match up real well with Dallas in my opinion.

I don't want to be a poopie-pants downer so I'm leaving it at that. Truthfully, I don't think Dallas is THAT much better than the Pack .... I just don't know what to make of the Packers yet. After all, the pre-season just ended for our starters and there's bound to be some rust yet.

Seem to be matching up fine with them so far.

 

[weeds]

Seem to be matching up fine with them so far.

It's early.

 

[PackAttack12]

That was an inexcusably awful under thrown ball by Aaron Rodgers. That HAS to be 6 points. No excuse for that bad of an under throw. None.

 

[greengold]

Well, that was pretty fucxin’ good.

I’d venture to say:
1. our run blocking came to life
2. We held Zeke in check
3. We held Witten in check

4. We won.

 

[El Guapo]

I actually liked Tra more in the preseason. It is my understanding that Williams just cannot pass block. All the runs I saw on tape of him at Notre Dame showed him running through giant holes. Maybe he needs a giant hole to be effective?

Carson won the third RB spot in camp, but lost it due to lack of draft status. Williams cost us a pick and on top of that, is very talented and has more upside if he can get his pass blocking down. All the reports that I heard this week were that the team is still concerned about his ability to block.

In the end, Carson showed yesterday exactly what he did in the preseason when playing with the #1 unit. He grinds out yards and can protect Rodgers. I have no problem letting Williams marinate on the bench while he learns how to effectively keep Rodgers upright.