and if they don't? and Seattle stones them again and they get nothing and the crowd is now wild and beast mode is just waiting be unleased and his first hand off rips off 30 yards, then what?
Seattle has fed off their defense making big plays and then Lynch coming in and igniting everyone for a few years now. it's not like it wasn't a high probability. The only reason, you're betting is because you can do it from behind a keyboard with zero repercussions.
Nice, you apparently know my mind. Never mind the fact that every actual statistical analysis of that scenario says that you go for it. Nope. I'm only advocating for it because I know the outcome and because I'm on a keyboard. It couldn't possibly be because NFL coaches as a body are some of the most conservative coaches out there. There's a reason why NCAA and highschool are where new ideas come from, NFL coaches don't like to do new things.
Want an example of how conservative NFL coaches are (MM included)? The following is from a CNNSI article written during the week before the Packers-Seahawks game. The writer spent the day on Sunday watching the Packers-Cowboys game with Richard Sherman.
In short, NFL play-callers are boring. Sherman estimates about 26 teams run the same handful of plays on third down. Of the teams he’s played over the last two years, he can think of three that don’t: New England, Denver and New Orleans.
From having played the Packers in Week 1, Sherman recognizes some of Green Bay’s third-down favorites...What helps make the Packers so unique, Sherman says, is Rodgers’ ability to extend plays and take off running
I don't see the Packers listed in that group of non-boring teams. On the one freaking yard line you go for it, especially when the other team's offense is literally defecating all over themselves. If you fail, the opponent is stuck in their own endzone and should, at worst, get a couple first downs before having to punt; most likely the opponent gets some room for the punter and ends up punting out of their own endzone.
Now, since I'm only saying these things because I'm behind a keyboard, I think I'll use this keyboard to put a link in this post that does a TERRIFIC job of explaining when a coach should go for it. Maybe next year McCarthy can have this available on one of the Surfaces on the sideline.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html?_r=0
As for the "well they stopped us on two downs..." argument, Bill Barnwell has a terrific rejoinder. If you throw a pass incomplete on 1st-and-10 and then another incompletion on second down, should you then punt on third down because, well, what's the point since they already stopped you twice?