The Big Choice

[longtimefan]

The choice is not Aaron Rodgers or “bad quarterbacking”, Jason Wilde must be somebody’s wife

Do you know wilde's history?

 

[McKnowledge]

Trading Rodgers frees up 20 million in cap space and gets you high draft picks and/or talented starters. The Niners are better than the Packers with a Jimmy G as their qb. Wilde is wrong to assume defense can't carry a team. A top defense generally shows up more often than a pass happy offense. As long as Love learns to not turn the ball over, the defense and a good running game can win a lot of games. I say cash Rodgers out now while you can get serious assetts to restock the team. The Packers have a lot of young talent and adding high draft picks and a good starter for Rodgers could make the rebuilding process quick.

You make a great point for moving on from Rodgers. The draft assets and possibly a player or two is enticing. Along with the younger players and hopefully a consistent defense is a compelling case.

However, here's a counter argument for keeping Rodgers and reloading; who can conceivably replace his production? If he leaves...this is still a championship contending roster, just a QB away. So, why sould he leave?

Consistent MVP-level QB play is quite special can often underappreciated. Facts are facts. Rodgers laid a dud in the Divisional Round. Let's move onto 2022. Even without Rodgers this is a championship contending team in my estimation. Run it back lean on your teammates. This is the best situation for Rodgers should he decide to continue playing.

 

[longtimefan]

You make a great point for moving on from Rodgers. The draft assets and possibly a player or two is enticing. Along with the younger players and hopefully a consistent defense is a compelling case.

However, here's a counter argument for keeping Rodgers and reloading; who can conceivably replace his production? If he leaves...this is still a championship contending roster, just a QB away. So, why sould he leave?

Consistent MVP-level QB play is quite special can often underappreciated. Facts are facts. Rodgers laid a dud in the Divisional Round. Let's move onto 2022. Even without Rodgers this is a championship contending team in my estimation. Run it back lean on your teammates. This is the best situation for Rodgers should he decide to continue playing.

How many SB they went to when Rodgers was mvp?

 

[swhitset]

How many SB they went to when Rodgers was mvp?

How many did they go to after Bart and before Favre?
How many have the Vikings won? How many have the Bears Been to? They’ve had some pretty good defenses along the way… no QB. Oh and in 85 when they won it all with Defense… they also had Walter Payton and a very under rated Jim McMahon. How many teams with crappy QBs should I bring up.that have won nothing? Sure you can start naming the exceptions … Trent Dilfer, etc… they are just that….exceptions.

 

[AKCheese]

Do you know wilde's history?

Nope

 

[AKCheese]

How many did they go to after Bart and before Favre?
How many have the Vikings won? How many have the Bears Been to? They’ve had some pretty good defenses along the way… no QB. Oh and in 85 when they won it all with Defense… they also had Walter Payton and a very under rated Jim McMahon. How many teams with crappy QBs should I bring up.that have won nothing? Sure you can start naming the exceptions … Trent Dilfer, etc… they are just that….exceptions.

I would not recommend replacing Rodgers with a “crappy quarterback” no matter when that occurs LOL

 

[OldSchool101]

Stafford been in the league since 09’ and Jimmy G since 14

You’re right I missed Stafford I was half asleep ,dreaming of a drafting the #2 overall QB inside 14 months.

Point being you can go get another QB. You might take a step backwards for a year or three, but then you’ve got a young QB with 15 years of future. We won’t go into a 15 year slump. We could be playoff competitive by 2023 or 2024.

I’ve done the math if we traded Rodgers and Davante. Then traded our top selection in March for draft picks next season and took a down year with Love. You’d fall off your chair salivating during the draft in 2023-2024

Shedding Rodgers contract alone straightens our Cap deficit to near zero this season. If Rodgers doesn’t want to stay? let’s move on.

 

[tynimiller]

You’re right I missed Stafford I was half asleep ,dreaming of a drafting the #2 overall QB inside 14 months.

Point being you can go get another QB. You might take a step backwards for a year or three, but then you’ve got a young QB with 15 years of future. We won’t go into a 15 year slump. We could be playoff competitive by 2023 or 2024.

I’ve done the math if we traded Rodgers and Davante. Then traded our top selection in March for draft picks next season and took a down year with Love. You’d fall off your chair salivating during the draft in 2023-2024

Shedding Rodgers contract alone straightens our Cap deficit to near zero this season. If Rodgers doesn’t want to stay? let’s move on.

Correct both a trade with Denver scenario (stronger return this draft) or Dolphins (stronger return next draft) give Gute the flexibility to test Love in 2022 and spring for a QB in 2023 - all the while building potentially an incredibly young and skilled core with a ton of top 100 picks.

Hypothetical, but say we trade with Denver - that 9th pick this year could be incredible trade bait for a team if one of the top two QBs remain and that is the area most feel they will go. You could potentially turn that pick into a 1 and a 2 this year as well as additional even ON TOP of the haul for Rodgers. Lot of options present themselves to Gute for sure.

 

[longtimefan]

Nope

He was Co host with Rodgers on espn radio.

Not sure how long maybe 2 years? Id trust him over any other reporter

 

[Firethorn1001]

It seems to get Rodger's back, since he doesn't want to do a rebuild, you will need to absolutely destroy the cap in future years so, at some point the Packers will need to hurt their cap. Of course, that is under the assumption that he will want all his guys back next year some of who shouldn't be back (Cobb) or some that probably can't come back just due to the cap (Adams/EVS). Not a fan of paying a WR $25M-$30, but that is a different discussion.

Unless there is some magic that Ball can do that I'm not seeing, I'd almost rather just bite the bullet and do it this year and get assets for Rodgers rather than doing it in the future and getting nothing. At some point, it will happen.

Rodger's retiring would be the worst case.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I would not recommend replacing Rodgers with a “crappy quarterback” no matter when that occurs LOL

If you trade Rodgers for picks and a starter, you aren't making a one for one swap. You potentially replace him with a much worse qb like Love but a better defense and running game if you use some of the top picks to get o linemen. The combo of Gute and Stenovich have proven they can draft and develop o linemen. You could get probably get at least a first, and second round pick with a stud psss rusher, wr or TE.

 

[tynimiller]

It seems to get Rodger's back, since he doesn't want to do a rebuild, you will need to absolutely destroy the cap in future years so, at some point the Packers will need to hurt their cap. Of course, that is under the assumption that he will want all his guys back next year some of who shouldn't be back (Cobb) or some that probably can't come back just due to the cap (Adams/EVS). Not a fan of paying a WR $25M-$30, but that is a different discussion.

Unless there is some magic that Ball can do that I'm not seeing, I'd almost rather just bite the bullet and do it this year and get assets for Rodgers rather than doing it in the future and getting nothing. At some point, it will happen.

Rodger's retiring would be the worst case.

It would be worst case for kinda. I say kinda because it depends in what way you're measuring. It does help the cap situation now by about $20M the way you work a retirement or can, similar to the Brees/NO situation. BUT you get zero in return beyond that for Rodgers AND you don't field an "all in" type roster for 2022. Of the three choices before us as I've broken down in detail elsewhere; retirement really would SUCK and rolls the bad of both scenarios into one, if we trade him you're at worst going to have a down year in 2022 (possibly further) but with a chance at a rebuild with tons of draft assets and cap money to spend, you keep him and destroy future caps for years you do at least get a chance at a great year in 2022.

Retirement would SUCK IMO overall the most, but isn't the worst option from a W/L category in 2022 most likely (that would be trading him and Love test year starts)

 

[OldSchool101]

Huh? what 4 QBs?

Regardless I don’t believe I’m underestimating anything. I believe you may be underestimating Rodgers and how difficult it will be to replace him though.

Rodgers won’t be around forever. We are all resistant to change, but if there’s an Avenue to jump on a passing ship and the ship you’re on is taking on water.
It just might be a gift.

I’m not anti Rodgers. I am anti anyone who sinks our ship and I don’t care how great they can navigate that ship or what rank they hold. If she’s going to slowly sink it’s time to think about the preparing the lifeboats. Disregarding that option would be our own pure ignorance.

The only way I see holding Aaron and Davante is by pushing more debt. Someone is going to have to pony up at some point. This isn’t monopoly or the US Treasury. We can’t just print fictitious money to pay all these players.

 

[OldSchool101]

How many did they go to after Bart and before Favre?

That’s a fear tactic. Most Everyone knows that we would be setup much more eloquently than the 1970’s teams. Our coach is better, our FO is better and we could potentially have 7-9 Day 1 draft selections inside the next 26 months (I can show you how this is a reality) not to mention 150M-200m of additional Cap over that time (verses AR option)
That is something I’m not hearing nearly enough about. There’s lots of great QB getting ready to hit the NFL in 2022-2024. If you do not think any of those guys can win games, then I’d more “hard” agree with soothing the fan base and playing it safe. However, if our QB gets injured or declines I’m holding you virtually responsible! J/k. (We’re playing GM so why not)

You’re method is essentially betting on 1-2 players to carry this team. I like the odds of the other 21 players 0+D to carry their share of the burden. I also think our FO and HC is more capable and THAT is what I see many in here underestimating.

Our future is more on the bright side. We’ve got options snd many franchises would LOVE to be in our shoes

 

[Sanguine camper]

The Packers gambled and lost this year by keeping Rodgers with the all-in approach that created a cap hell. If they try that again, the chances of success go down substantially and they handcuff the rebuilding process because they could potentially get nothing for Rodgers if he retires after 2022. Even if he comes back in 2022, Rodgers is a year older and more likely to get hurt with a roster that will see a dropoff in talent in order to keep his big salary. Given Rodgers inability to step up in crucial playoff situations makes it even less wise to gamble again. The longer you gamble, the higher the chances that you lose and the house wins.

 

[Mondio]

I see the wisdom and pitfalls of all of these scenarios. I can't really commit to any of them without a fair amount of hesitation to go along with it. Stay, Retire or Trade are all as likely as far as i'm concerned. I'd say i'd like the retire option the least from a team stand point.

 

[Dantés]

With the hire of Hackett in Denver, the Broncos become an even stronger favorite to land Rodgers should he move on. I also think it puts Denver in a little bit of a desperate situation to attain him. I'm sure that they like Hackett either way, but you have to believe that a big part of the hire was to make Rodgers amenable to playing in Denver.

The most recent trade with any sort of comparability was the Stafford deal. Stafford was considerably younger at the time of trade, but also a lesser player. The Lions got a 3rd rounder in the 2021 draft and then 1st round picks in 2022 and 2023. They also got Goff, though it's debatable if that was added value for them or if they just ate his contract to sweeten the deal for LA. So we will ignore that.

In the upcoming draft, the Broncos have the 9th overall pick, plus two 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders. Any deal for Rodgers must include that 9th pick, because in future years, with Rodgers, they will obviously be picking lower.

So what would a good deal look like? I would aim for something like this:

2022 1st round pick (9th)
2022 2nd round pick (~41st)
2023 1st round pick
2023 3rd round pick

 

[OldSchool101]

The Packers gambled and lost this year by keeping Rodgers with the all-in approach that created a cap hell. If they try that again, the chances of success go down substantially and they handcuff the rebuilding process because they could potentially get nothing for Rodgers if he retires after 2022. Even if he comes back in 2022, Rodgers is a year older and more likely to get hurt with a roster that will see a dropoff in talent in order to keep his big salary. Given Rodgers inability to step up in crucial playoff situations makes it even less wise to gamble again. The longer you gamble, the higher the chances that you lose and the house wins.

Yes! Very Well said.
It’s not that we can’t win. Moreover that it is a decreasing probability from last season.
To offset that decrease with player contracts, we’d need to go full throttle in using massive resources now but spreading it across future years.
We also likely stay in a perpetual “20+ something” overall draft status which has haunted us since 2011. The 1 time we picked in the top 15 we snatched Rashan Gary. That’s the price you pay

 

[Firethorn1001]

Cobb's instagram post seemed like a post from someone that knows they are moving on.

 

[tynimiller]

Cobb's instagram post seemed like a post from someone that knows they are moving on.

I also felt that assumption.

 

[sschind]

Cobb's instagram post seemed like a post from someone that knows they are moving on.

guess I'll have to take your word for it.

 

[AKCheese]

I’d shoot for the 3rd rounder this year as well

 

[Dantés]

If they did cash in and move on from Rodgers, I would hope they could use some of the 2022 draft capital to accrue more ammo in 2023.

I'm sure they will want to give Jordan Love a year before they decide if they want another QB. And this year's QB class is supposed to be pretty paltry. So if you hold onto the value by pushing into next year, you get the chance to see Love play extensively and you have more ammunition in what is likely to be a better QB class.

 

[BrokenArrow]

We have discussed that particular play to death…. so far it is the only example i’ve seen.

Well, then you missed the play right before that where Deguara was also wide open about 3 yards short of the first down but he almost threw a pick 6 in Cobb's general direction, who was not open.

 

[swhitset]

Well, then you missed the play right before that where Deguara was also wide open about 3 yards short of the first down but he almost threw a pick 6 in Cobb's general direction, who was not open.

didn’t say i missed the game… i was referring to the fact that people were beating that one example to death.