The Big Choice

[red4tribe]

I don't understand the cap as well as others here, but isn't the cap set to grow significantly in 2023 with the new TV contracts? So if we kick the salary into the future just a couple of years, won't things look better two seasons from now?

 

[swhitset]

I don't understand the cap as well as others here, but isn't the cap set to grow significantly in 2023 with the new TV contracts? So if we kick the salary into the future just a couple of years, won't things look better two seasons from now?

that is the theory

 

[Toad]

I feel offense (that means every aspect) should have played better. 10 points is not acceptable for me..You are okay with it. and that's fine.

The offense did NOT do enough for a playoff game. There is plenty of blame to go around for their lackluster performance. Head Coach didn’t have them ready for that game, Rodgers did NOT play well for wanting to get to a Super Bowl again and we have known all season long that Special Teams was a walking disaster. That mess should have been addressed a LONG TIME ago! Matt was just plain dumb for promoting an assistant to the fired special teams coach. Just a dumb idea and I do believe that it cost us way too many losses.

 

[Pugger]

Rodges said he wants no part in rebuilding a team.
I say trade him now, get the best deal and move on.
There are more Rodgers out there.
There are more Adams out there.
Let the future for the Packers begin

There are not more Rodgers out there. There are not enough elite QBs on this planet to go around for 32 NFL teams. Now, if we can get a bunch of picks for Aaron and keep this defense in tact and a good running game we might have success with Love in 2022. I can understand the dilemma at 1265. This is a win now league and QBs like AR don't grow on trees. Rodgers has had his struggles in the postseason but do we even get there without him going forward? It is unfortunate we are in the cap mess. How can KC keep that team together after giving Mahomes a king's ransom?

 

[Pugger]

Yeah, he's no longer able to carry a team on his back like in 2009-2010. He needs a perfect defense and perfect special teams in order to win a playoff game.

He had a championship caliber defense Saturday night. All he really needed was an NFL average special teams, not a historically lousy one.

 

[Dantés]

So according to overthecap, the Packers are effectively 50M over the cap in 2022.

So if they kept Rodgers, how would they deal with that? Here are some possibilities:

-First and most obviously is to deal with Rodgers' number (46.4M); an extension could get that down to, maybe 30M? Less? Conservatively, maybe they pick up 20M that way in space, getting him under contract through, say, 2024.

-Next up is Za'Darius Smith. He's about to enter his age 30 season and a contract year; I doubt anyone would trade for his contract given that he missed the entire year so I think you either have to extend him (very risky with his age and back problems), or cut him (the more likely option). Even with the 12.4M in dead money, it would create 15.3M in space-- I believe a post 6/1 designation would create about 21M.

-Preston Smith is also entering his age 30 season and a contract year, but he's not the risky asset that Z is. If you're trying to bring Rodgers back and run this thing back, you can't also get rid of all your impact players. So I think you would go with an extension here and get the 2022 number down, say from 21M down to 15 or so?

-Kenny Clark would be a candidate for a restructure-- push some cap hit into the latter part of the contract and pick up another 5-10M depending on how extreme you want to go.

Then there are a number of guys who you could cut or restructure or just leave alone. They'd be obvious cut/trade candidates if you were starting over, but you don't want to gut the roster if you're keeping Rodgers:

-Adrian Amos: +7.9M to release; -11.9M to keep
-Randall Cobb: +~7M to release; -9.5M to keep
-Billy Turner: +4M to release; -8.9M to keep
-Dean Lowry: +4M to release; -7.9M to keep
-Mason Crosby: +2.4M to release; -4.7M to keep

And then there are the guys that you want to (or may want to) extend or re-sign:

-Davante Adams
-Jaire Alexander (2023)
-Elgton Jenkins (2023)
-De'Vondre Campbell
-Rasul Douglas
-Corey Bojorquez
-Robert Tonyan
-Marquez Valdes-Scantling

If it's me, I'm doing numbers 1-4 above (Rodgers, the Smith's, and Clark) because I don't see how you don't. Those four steps could get them, roughly, 5M below the cap ceiling.

Beyond that, I would be in favor of extending Amos (maybe +5M?), releasing Cobb (+7M), and releasing Crosby (+2.4).

This is obviously very rough math-- I'm just trying to get an idea-- but I think the totality of those moves would place them somewhere in the neighborhood of 20M under the cap.

That's what you'd have to work with to then sign a rookie class, fill out the roster with free agents (veteran or rookie), and get some extensions done. I would be doing whatever I needed to in terms of back-loading to get Adams, Campbell, and Douglas back. Bojo and Tonyan would be nice too, but not deal breakers for me.

 

[pacmaniac]

You know why EQ was open? The ball was already thrown. He didn't come open until well after, at any point up until then he was not even a target by design in the play and he was running directly to a defender with a 10 yard cushion when that ball was thrown. he was not at any point "open" during that play, to suggest proves my last point, complete lack of understanding or appreciation for the game you just watched.

Watch the replay. The defender didn't realize the ball was thrown to Adams. That's why the defender kept chasing ESB well after the ball was thrown.

 

[Pugger]

This is like Brett all over again

People would never blame him. It was always someone else fault.

If all season he was able to produce with pretty much same offense. Why was this game so different?

Answer this
Did he play up to his potential?

I'm beginning to wonder if he is trying too hard not to lose in these playoff games and once things start going south he becomes even more hesitant. He then gets tunnel vision and either ignores or doesn't see other options besides #17.

 

[Pugger]

a lesser QB turns the ball over 4+ times Saturday night. Just because there weren't hightlight plays all over doesn't mean he didn't play pretty well conditions and defense considered. Who were the guy he missed? we have one play, where a guy comes open after the throws the ball and everyone is saying he should have held it and waited. In the next breath they'll tell him he held it too long and took a sack at the end of the first half. They want their cake and by gosh they're going to eat it too

Had the special teams held up even to an average degree, people might be talking about his ability to get us into FG range from the FOUR with about 20 seconds left as a pretty big deal in a good old fashioned cold smash mouth football game. Not everyone gets Tyrek Hill or Travis Kelce running open all over the field play after play after play.

I saw a photo of a play in the 4th where Lazard was WIDE open in the middle of the field and Rodgers instead throws a long pass to a well covered Adams on 4th down. If he throws it to Lazard that drives continues.

 

[El Guapo]

Great analysis Dantes. That is what has made my brain hurt, understanding how much we need to cut down.

The reality is that no matter if we keep Rodgers or not, due to cap space in 2022, we will not have the same level of talent in 2022 (unless Gute hits it out of the park with the 2022 draft class). There is no way to extend everyone and keep the band together. To me, the level of cap deferment required just to have a worse team than 2021 is not worth it. Maybe we will strike gold by shedding some of our better players and still making the SB, but I highly doubt it. That is why I am in the trade Rodgers camp.

Get some high 2023 draft picks in case you need them for QB, keep our good OL and RBs, transition to a true rushing offense, and see what you've got in Love. The reality is that as a business, the Packers want to stay viable for the next 10 years, not win a Super Bowl.

 

[Pugger]

lmao do you take yourself seriously? We should expect the punt team to give up a freaking touchdown… But that ok… let’s pin the loss on Rodgers because He’s supposed to be perfect.

Our crappy ST also blocked a FG right before the half. We get that 2 score lead the game might have had a much different tenor in the 3rd quarter.

 

[sschind]

I don't understand the cap as well as others here, but isn't the cap set to grow significantly in 2023 with the new TV contracts? So if we kick the salary into the future just a couple of years, won't things look better two seasons from now?

127 billion according to some. or something close to that apparently.

 

[Dantés]

Great analysis Dantes. That is what has made my brain hurt, understanding how much we need to cut down.

The reality is that no matter if we keep Rodgers or not, due to cap space in 2022, we will not have the same level of talent in 2022 (unless Gute hits it out of the park with the 2022 draft class). There is no way to extend everyone and keep the band together. To me, the level of cap deferment required just to have a worse team than 2021 is not worth it. Maybe we will strike gold by shedding some of our better players and still making the SB, but I highly doubt it. That is why I am in the trade Rodgers camp.

Get some high 2023 draft picks in case you need them for QB, keep our good OL and RBs, transition to a true rushing offense, and see what you've got in Love. The reality is that as a business, the Packers want to stay viable for the next 10 years, not win a Super Bowl.

Thanks.

If the steps suggested above are realistic and carried out, you could keep essentially the same team together. The major losses would be Za'Darius, who didn't play anyways, along with Cobb and Crosby.

 

[tynimiller]

Fair enough!

If they do that, I’m not going to criticize it.

I guess one argument is that while they’ll have to sacrifice some depth to get under the cap, they went through this season without a lot of because of injuries.

If we do the first option, fans will need to understand there will be no chance this team can do well with injuries cuz depth will be non-existent. Could be deadly if all goes well for sure, but if cases of injuries spring up like this year we will plummet quite quickly and everyone will need to be ready for that.

 

[tripleguy]

I've had enough of winning divisional crowns. I'd gladly put up with a few mediocre seasons in order to rebuild with the cap space and draft choices we'd get from a Rodgers trade and potentially losing Adams. Our division is weak so who knows, we might still contend and then find ourselves in the same one and done situation we've been stuck in for a while now. Turn the page.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't understand the cap as well as others here, but isn't the cap set to grow significantly in 2023 with the new TV contracts? So if we kick the salary into the future just a couple of years, won't things look better two seasons from now?

True however, I really don't want to be the team that has nothing or still fights to shave enough to meet it vs the teams that when that expansion hits can build their team very quickly and easier than us due to the cap growth in addition to their better fiscal management (better is relative to how you view contract decisions of course).

 

[sschind]

I saw a photo of a play in the 4th where Lazard was WIDE open in the middle of the field and Rodgers instead throws a long pass to a well covered Adams on 4th down. If he throws it to Lazard that drives continues.

did you just wake up That play has already been discussed in at least 2 posts besides yours.

 

[tynimiller]

Thanks.

If the steps suggested above are realistic and carried out, you could keep essentially the same team together. The major losses would be Za'Darius, who didn't play anyways, along with Cobb and Crosby.

I don't think it is possible to keep at all a similar team together with just Z, Cobb and Crosby cut....presently we have this 200 snaps or more defensive contributors unsigned in 2022:

Rasul Douglas
De'Vondre Campbell
Krys Barnes
Tyler Lancaster
Kevin King
Chandon Sullivan
Henry Black on defense
(the main guys that saw over 200 snaps in 2021 campaign or more).

That's just on that side of the ball...

 

[tynimiller]

did you just wake up That play has already been discussed in at least 2 posts besides yours.

And across like five threads.

 

[Dantés]

I don't think it is possible to keep at all a similar team together with just Z, Cobb and Crosby cut....presently we have this 200 snaps or more defensive contributors unsigned in 2022:

Rasul Douglas
De'Vondre Campbell
Krys Barnes
Tyler Lancaster
Kevin King
Chandon Sullivan
Henry Black on defense
(the main guys that saw over 200 snaps in 2021 campaign or more).

That's just on that side of the ball...

Well read through the above and tell me where I’m no realistic.

 

[tynimiller]

Well read through the above and tell me where I’m no realistic.

One you forgot which is actually the easiest decision IMO to extend is Jaire - he hits $13M+ if nothing changes.

The issue with any of this restructure is just the sheer amount of money we will be mid/back loading on to any of them. We pushed around/back $50.9M last year to get under the cap...and only 29.2M of that was into 2022, rest beyond even - and now we are needing to push even more back just to field a team "maybe" as good as 2021 at an even more massive cost to the future.

It for sure can be done, but depth is going to be non-existent, injury wise it better be the best season we've seen in years and everyone must realize the dark dark days it will create.

 

[tynimiller]

Oh and we are this far behind the eight ball with just 35 players on contract....at this rate Gute may need to trade out of the 1st round just to save some money LOL

 

[Dantés]

One you forgot which is actually the easiest decision IMO to extend is Jaire - he hits $13M+ if nothing changes.

The issue with any of this restructure is just the sheer amount of money we will be mid/back loading on to any of them. We pushed around/back $50.9M last year to get under the cap...and only 29.2M of that was into 2022, rest beyond even - and now we are needing to push even more back just to field a team "maybe" as good as 2021 at an even more massive cost to the future.

It for sure can be done, but depth is going to be non-existent, injury wise it better be the best season we've seen in years and everyone must realize the dark dark days it will create.

If you are bringing Rodgers back, just do it. Why bring him back and gut the roster? That’s a half measure.

 

[tynimiller]

If you are bringing Rodgers back, just do it. Why bring him back and gut the roster? That’s a half measure.

Oh for sure, if you bring Rodgers back it signals you're gutting the future for 2022 - and at that point you cannot "half-***" that. Rodgers I don't think will come back without some roster specific discussions and "declarations" by Gute that "yes, we will make that work."

 

[tynimiller]

I will say along with terrible depth, comes a much higher risk of terrible special teams - especially on coverage and return units. Don't expect any better performing ST play if you're going this route - although like we both realize if you do this route you're only concerned with main primary positions on offense and defense.