The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Schultz]

Really hard to predict just who teams are going to let go in this salary cap climate. I made a list of rumored cuts and then added guys from teams I feel have depth where they would rather have a late round rookie as their #3 back. I put them in tiers. I personally would rather re-sign Williams if possible and draft a back in the 6th or 7th round. Without Williams probably need to address RB in 4th or 5th.
Tier 1
Lat Murray- will probably cost more than Williams
Mack or Hines- can the Colts keep both behind Taylor?
Tier 2
James White/Rex Burkhead- thinking one of them could be available
D. Williams or D. Williams- if Damian opts back in KC can afford to lose one
Jackson or Kelley- longshot but Chargers may let one go
Brown or Henderson- it is clear who the Rams #1 back is
Tier 3
Justice Hill
Wilkins- see Colts above
Royce Freeman
McKinnon/Coleman- deep backfield- McKinnon is my #1 hope to get on the cheap
R. Penny
C. Thompson
C. Clement

 

[RepStar15]

If you would have talked to me 6 days ago, I would have said there is a 0 percent chance Aaron Jones ends up in GB if he does not get tagged. Looking around the league at everyone that has been released, I am starting to see this differently. If you are a team with $ to spend and you see starting LT's, pass rushers and CBs hit the open market, will you be spending your money on a RB? I no longer think that Aaron Jones will be getting that 15 million per year he is reportedly looking for. At this point, I cannot imagine a team offers him more than a 10 million/year contract and potentially a short one at that. I also think it is a short list that makes him that offer.

The big question is what will the Packers offer, if anything. If the "reports" were true that they offered him somewhere around the 9 million/year range, I can almost guarantee that offer has gone down looking around the league right now. The more high profile players that get released, is more money out of Jones's pocket. I love Aaron Jones and genuinely want him to get the most money possible. He is just unlucky that the year the salary cap went to hell was the same year he became a free agent.

So my thoughts? I think at best the Miami Dolphins offer him a 3 year 30 million contract with 23 in guarantees. The Packers will not offer anything more than 3 year 24 million with 19 in guarantees. Ultimately, he will follow the money as he should. Though I would now suggest that there is a 25% chance he ends up back in GB.

 

[Mondio]

That's where I think it will be too. The terminology and things might say all sorts of things, but the nuts and bolts of the best contract I think he gets is basically what would amount to a 3 year contract with around 20 million in guarantees. It may say it's a 5 year contract, but it will be decision time after year 3 at the most.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't think since Ahman Green have we had a RB who's stayed on the team longer than 5 years.

Sure. They normally either play themselves out, hurt themselves out... or eat themselves out of GB!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Packers will not offer anything more than 3 year 24 million with 19 in guarantees.

I highly doubt the Packers offer Jones a deal with nearly 80% of the total value being guaranteed.

 

[ColoradoPacker51]

Jonesy just posted on his Instagram page, “Let’s run it back” #gopackgo

Did he just get re-signed..?

 

[Dantés]

4 year deal for 48 million.

 

[Dantés]

“The Packers can’t afford to sign anyone.”

-Every Supposed Cap Guru

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

With $13M signing bonus.....is OTC not working today? Bums....

 

[Team Ronny]

Jones signs 4 year 48 million..13 million signing bonus

 

[C-Lee]

Shocking but I’m into it

 

[AmishMafia]

More than I thought the Packers would pay. He has earned every penny of that and very happy he is still a Packer.

Congrats Aaron!

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

It is about $4M too rich for my tastes. Was hoping for a $40M but was willing to come up to $44M. I'm still happy to retain him regardless.

 

[Jerellh528]

I’m kind of surprised by this. Makes me lose confidence in the front office though. Kind of a stupid move imo. Oh well.

 

[RepStar15]

Looks to be really a 9.5mil/year contract with up to 13mil in incentives. I’m happy Jones is back. He’s the best FA weapon Aaron Rodgers could have this year.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Surprised. $13M guaranteed seems low. Something they could walk away from in a few years if needed.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’m kind of surprised by this. Makes me lose confidence in the front office though. Kind of a stupid move imo. Oh well.

Yeah that’s an understandable chop at up to 12mil/yr but remember this is substantially under his market value. A very comparable Dalvin Cook (who I’ve had the pleasure of arguing the 2 players in detail with other Vikings fans) is nearly identical in total makeup. Cook signed at 12.6/per X 5yrs with just under 50% guaranteed. These are very comparable players and I’d argue GB just got a better deal.
With the league getting essentially a solid 10% pay cut, it’s a smart move for both sides. Him and Delvin Cook are very comparable and Cook signed at 28mil guaranteed. As long as Jones deal doesn’t exceed $18-20mil guaranteed this is a better value imo

 

[Don Barclay]

I'm so happy about this. I'm def skeptical about the long-term wisdom of the investment, but man it's so much fun to watch him run, and he's so easy to root for and admire. I said somewhere else a while back that Jones and Z are two players that just...make me bust out yelling at the TV (in the good way, haha).

Sure I can see this looking ill-advised a few years down the line, but I don't know, maybe not -- and I don't think the current version of the front office has earned scorn at this point. Might be whistling a different tune in a few years, esp. regarding the 2020 draft....but damn, two NFCCG in a row and a team with guys who make me smile? I like this.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I guess Gute was seen rummaging through every office petty cash drawer and all the couch cushions at Lambeau yesterday.....

 

[OldSchool101]

I guess Gute was seeing rummaging through every office petty cash drawer and all the couch cushions at Lambeau yesterday.....

Just wait until he signs Sherman or Hayward! The top is going to come off this place. Packer Stockholders kiss ur 401E goodbye!

 

[Dantés]

Given how running backs age and how 2nd contracts often turn out for them, this deal is a risk.

Without full contract details, it’s hard to say if that risk is high or low. If the base APY is really 9.5, the Packers got an amazing deal.

But one things for certain— the Packers are better with Aaron Jones. Keeping him while they push for a ring with Rodgers makes sense in the short term.

 

[Dantés]

Also, just anticipating the A.J. Dillon complaints— there are still easily 175-200 touches for him in this offense. A guy getting the ball that much is not a waste even if he isn’t the lead back.

The backfield in 2021 could be lethal.

 

[tynimiller]

Also, just anticipating the A.J. Dillon complaints— there are still easily 175-200 touches for him in this offense. A guy getting the ball that much is not a waste even if he isn’t the lead back.

The backfield in 2021 could be lethal.

Honestly can you think of a more diverse and deadly two headed beast really?

I'm shocked even more now at the Preston contract redo....and I'm not at all a fan of paying RBs this much, I'm a fan of Aaron Jones but not paying any RB that much.

 

[Dantés]

Honestly can you think of a more diverse and deadly two headed beast really?

I'm shocked even more now at the Preston contract redo....and I'm not at all a fan of paying RBs this much, I'm a fan of Aaron Jones but not paying any RB that much.

Looks to me like they are trying to keep as much talent together as possible around Rodgers.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

If Jones can get 1240 yds every year of this contract, I think we'll being saying that the Packers got a great return for the investment.

I'll wait for that math to hit somebody else....