The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[thequick12]

No.. no. Just all sorts of no.

WR money of that nature is going to be earmarked for Adams. They aren't going to carry Rodgers, Bak, Adams, Fuller, Clark, Smith at 60% of their cap and with Alexander's contract coming up fast.

I wasn't saying I thought they should pay fuller that I'm not a big fuller fan at all especially after he was suspended for 6 games to culminate what had been his one really good season thus far

And I understand that they are hopefully going to extend Adams at some point very soon and for sure at some point. But just remember last time they extended Adams which was a 4 year 58 million (14.5 m per) dollar extension (signed during 2017 season I believe) that covers the 2018 thru 2021 seasons...they subsequently offered another wr allen robinson 3 years 42 million 14 m per prior to the 2018 season

Well once again they are set to pay Adams at least top 5 wr money. And guess who is a free agent again, allen robinson. Last time he choose the bears for the same money because he wanted to live in Chicago to be close to his hometown of detroit...I wouldn't be shocked

 

[Pkrjones]

...Well once again they are set to pay Adams at least top 5 wr money. And guess who is a free agent again, allen robinson. Last time he choose the bears for the same money because he wanted to live in Chicago to be close to his hometown of detroit...I wouldn't be shocked

Adams deserves top-2 money (over $22Mil/yr) but with the limited cap AND Robinson only 27 yrs. old there's no chance in Hades that GB can sign Robinson too. With GB's top draft needs (IMHO) being CB, OT, DL, ILB, and then maybe WR Gute needs to find a hidden gem in mid/later round at WR.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Sign and trades do.not.happen.

If you are referring to sign for the contract and then trade. Correct.
If you are saying tag and trades don't happen, that is just false

 

[GreenNGold_81]

If you are referring to sign for the contract and then trade. Correct.
If you are saying tag and trades don't happen, that is just false

Tag and trades make sense on message boards, but in reality, they very rarely happen. That better?

 

[thequick12]

Tag and trades make sense on message boards, but in reality, they very rarely happen. That better?

Is that true ? While it used to never happen, I agree. However, in recent nfl history I feel like there's usually at least 1 an off season...

Obviously it's not gonna happen that often because teams tag players that are really good and very important to their football team. Thus most of the time the tagging team really wants to work out a deal to keep said really good player on their team...

Here's a list of players who have been franchise tagged and then traded in the past 5 off seasons:

2020 Yannick Ngakoue
2019 Jadeveon Clowney, Dee Ford, Frank Clark
2018 Jarvis Laundry
2017 Leveon Bell (sat out season)
2016 Josh Norman (rescinded)

I put Leveon Bell on the list because the Pittsburgh Steelers could have traded him but choose to let him sit out the season and then become a free agent. Same for Josh Norman while Carolina didn't trade him, he never played for them again. They had the opportunity to trade him but failed to take advantage of it by rescinding the tag.

I don't think the Packers should allow Jones to leave for free. The 8 m tag number for running backs is very reasonable. Its actually a lot less than the Packers have already offered him on a long term deal. I was obviously for resigning Jones at a high per year value, 10-12 m per, but at 15 m per no thanks. So saying that...

It would be negligent of the front office to not gurantee themselves the opportunity to receive compensation for him. I get compensatory picks but those are not guaranteed. If gute signs a couple guys that could easily negate a compensatory pick for jones. If there are really multiple teams willing to pay Jones Alvin Kamara/Christian Mccaffrey money, then I'm sure there is at least one that's willing to give up a 3rd round pick for the right to do so

 

[Mondio]

The steelers couldn't trade him because Bell didn't sign the tender. If they don't sign, you can't trade. You retain the "rights" but you don't control the player at that point.

 

[thequick12]

The steelers couldn't trade him because Bell didn't sign the tender. If they don't sign, you can't trade. You retain the "rights" but you don't control the player at that point.

Ah interesting, I didn't look into it that far, but knowing that. I can see drew Rosenhous on something similar. Still it would be negligent for the Packers to not tag Jones at such a low number. I'm sure if you don't sign the tender then, you also don't count against the cap?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't think the Packers should allow Jones to leave for free. The 8 m tag number for running backs is very reasonable. Its actually a lot less than the Packers have already offered him on a long term deal. I was obviously for resigning Jones at a high per year value, 10-12 m per, but at 15 m per no thanks. So saying that...

While I like this idea, not sure how well it will work in the cap strapped market. First, the Packers I believe would have to clear enough Cap space to Tag Jones. So what players do they cut to get that temporary Cap space?

Then you have to find a trade partner and will they give you more than a late 3rd round pick (Compensatory value of letting Jones Walk)? Obviously, the Packers might get a higher pick in the 2021 draft if they trade him, instead of the late 3d round compensatory pick in the 2022 draft. Given the Packers cap space and # of picks (10) they already have in the 2021 draft, I would prefer getting that pick in 2022. I suppose a trade could be for a teams 2022 2nd round pick, but I doubt they get much more.

A tag is going to really **** off Jones, whether he is traded or not. I don't see him sitting out 2021 if tagged, but I do see him playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, especially if its still in Green Bay. A team that traded for him would be wise to give him a new longer term deal.

 

[Mondio]

Ah interesting, I didn't look into it that far, but knowing that. I can see drew Rosenhous on something similar. Still it would be negligent for the Packers to not tag Jones at such a low number. I'm sure if you don't sign the tender then, you also don't count against the cap?

I think it still counts towards the cap or at least the moment he'd sign it would and we'd have to have the space immediately. so for accounting purposes at least, it would have to be there and unused at the very least.

 

[tynimiller]

I think realistically the highest one could expect to get for Jones would be a 3rd and a Day 3 pick (probably a 6th at best).

I don't necessarily believe you do the tag and trade unless you've already had discussions with say the Dolphins that say hey "We don't want to have to compete on the open FA market for Jones but if you were to tag, we would offer you a 2022 3rd rounder and a 2021 7th."

 

[thequick12]

I think it still counts towards the cap

"The full $14,544,000 that Bell would have earned if he had signed the franchise tag tender prior to the 2018 season was applied as a Steelers salary cap hold for 2018. As weeks went by during the 2018 season without Bell signing the tender, portions of this cap hold were released. Eventually, the entire cap hold of $14,544,000 was available to be used by the Steelers once the reporting deadline passed in November of 2018."

So I guess jones could hold the 8 million cap space (prorated) hostage up until a November deadline to report. Obviously you'd never want it to get to that and I don't think it would

 

[thequick12]

I think realistically the highest one could expect to get for Jones would be a 3rd and a Day 3 pick (probably a 6th at best).

I don't necessarily believe you do the tag and trade unless you've already had discussions with say the Dolphins that say hey "We don't want to have to compete on the open FA market for Jones but if you were to tag, we would offer you a 2022 3rd rounder and a 2021 7th."

That would be great for the Packers and now that you mention they may have already had discussions...I found it weird how it came out that there was mutual interest between jones and the dolphins prior to the legal tampering window. I really have no clue what constitutes tampering but it just struck me as odd. So maybe there is something going on

I just don't see it as smart not to tag him at such a low number. If "we play to win the game" then you don't give away blue players without guranteed compensation. Once you tag him there's basically only he sits out, he plays on the tag, you sign him long-term, you trade him. In any case you control things...unless he sits out and I just don't see jones doing that I see him playing on the tag before that which I see as the 2nd least likely outcome

 

[tynimiller]

None of the tag and trade talk matters unless we make the cap room for it - Lot of things about to change on the Packer landscape in less than two weeks time. My contract predictions:

-Record extension for Adams
-Rodgers restructured contract to a degree but not the full tilt $16M you are seeing out there saved.
-Zadarious contract extended one more years

-A decision on Jaire I'm a fan of contract extension rather than continue to let him play into an even more expensive role. Ball could work contract to not cost much or more than 5th year option in 2021, and spread out rest further I'd suspect.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I just don't see it as smart not to tag him at such a low number. If "we play to win the game" then you don't give away blue players without guranteed compensation. Once you tag him there's basically only he sits out, he plays on the tag, you sign him long-term, you trade him. In any case you control things...unless he sits out and I just don't see jones doing that I see him playing on the tag before that which I see as the 2nd least likely outcome

The problem being that the Packers have to create $8 million of cap space by mid-March to franchise tag Jones while possibly planning on not having him around for the 2021 season. That doesn't make sense with the team having extremely limited cap space.

A decision on Jaire I'm a fan of contract extension rather than continue to let him play into an even more expensive role. Ball could work contract to not cost much or more than 5th year option in 2021, and spread out rest further I'd suspect.

The Packers most likely don't have the cap space to extend Alexander this offseason.

 

[Dantés]

Green Bay could easily extend Alexander this offseason, as doing so would not require a big increase to his cap number in 2021.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Green Bay could easily extend Alexander this offseason, as doing so would not require a big increase to his cap number in 2021.

That's not true at all. Alexander is slated to count $3.8 million towards the cap with his base salary of $2.1 million being fully guaranteed.

Even if the Packers and him agree to lower his base salary to the minimum of $920K they could only offer him a $6 million signing bonus on a five-year deal to keep the cap space at the same level.

It's completely unrealistic to believe he would agree to a deal like that.

 

[XPack]

Tag incoming....

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It sounds like the NFL might extend the deadline for tags beyond tomorrow. This would be due to the hard cap not being set yet. Won't really matter a ton IMO.....AJ's Tag #'s

• $180 million cap: $8.54 million tag
• $183 million cap: $8.68 million tag
• $185 million cap: $8.78 million tag

 

[GreenNGold_81]

What happens to the cap if Aaron is tagged and holds out?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What happens to the cap if Aaron is tagged and holds out?

Packers would still have to carry his full salary against Cap. Someone earlier rolled through this scenario when Le'Veon Bell did the same thing in Pittsburgh. I would never say "never", but I don't see Aaron Jones holding out. He might not be happy about being tagged, but I think he plays and plays hard, knowing he still has to have a good season to get a big second contract.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Packers would still have to carry his full salary against Cap. Someone earlier rolled through this scenario when Le'Veon Bell did the same thing in Pittsburgh. I would never say "never", but I don't see Aaron Jones holding out. He might not be happy about being tagged, but I think he plays and plays hard, knowing he still has to have a good season to get a big second contract.

I'd typically think the same thing about Aaron Jones, but then again he did hire Rosenhaus who I can see pushing for that contract.

 

[thequick12]

I'd typically think the same thing about Aaron Jones, but then again he did hire Rosenhaus who I can see pushing for that contract.

If not for Rosenhaus I'd say aaron jones never holds out but idk he hired that specific dude for a reason and that reason could be that after rejecting the Packers 12 m per offer he could see the writing on the wall that this could likely end up in a franchise tag situation...

In the end I hope they tag him because while it would count against the cap, pro-rated, so they get a little back every game he misses til 10th game or something when they'd get the lump sum remaining back. I think it's far far more likely that tagging him would result in him coming to an agreement with Packers on deal, playing out the tag or being traded to a team that wants to pay him 15 m per

 

[Mondio]

I like Jones, I just don't see all these teams or any teams wanting to pay him that much. I mean maybe in play money as in the type he'd never see, but I have trouble seeing past what amounts to a 3 year contract with 20 million in guarantees or thereabout. 12-14 Per year? i just don't see it. If someone else does, great. Better for our comp pick formula.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If the Packers can figure out a way to cover the tag cost, I would be fine tagging and keeping AJ, at $8.5 M he is a bargain. Hell, cutting Preston Smith almost gets you there. Problem is, what does it prevent you from doing elsewhere? Just not a fan of going into 2021 with Dillon as the starter.

Also, I'm not a fan of tag and trade, unless someone offers the Packers way to sweet of a deal to pass it up. Packers have 10 draft picks in 2021 and as of now, negative cap space. So if they do swing a deal, take a higher 2022 pick or just say "f*ck it", let him walk and get a 2022 3rd round compensatory pick.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Is today the deadline to tag Aaron Jones?