Taysom Hill

[Deleted member 6794]

*Just grins like a Cheshire cat*

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Hmmm, so far no other team has offered him a deal to get him out of New Orleans.

 

[gopkrs]

I may have jumped the gun a little. The article said that the Saints plan to...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Hmmm, so far no other team has offered him a deal to get him out of New Orleans.

I don't think anyone can make him an offer yet?

Seems like the Saints are willing to pay him 1st round tender money to try and keep him in New Orleans. Some here adamantly expressed that he was in no way worth a 2nd round pick, if that was the case, why didn't the Saints just put a much cheaper 2nd round tender on him?

 

[Dantés]

I don't think anyone can make him an offer yet?

Seems like the Saints are willing to pay him 1st round tender money to try and keep him in New Orleans. Some here adamantly expressed that he was in no way worth a 2nd round pick, if that was the case, why didn't the Saints just put a much cheaper 2nd round tender on him?

I am one who adamantly believes that Taysom Hill is not worth a 2nd round pick.

So what does this mean that the Saints are willing to put a 1st round tender on him, rather than a 2nd round tender? There are a number of possibilities.

#1 is that I'm dead wrong about him and he's their future franchise QB. I obviously don't think this is the case. But that would lead to two other possibilities-- an NFL team, the Saints or someone else, might think that and be right, or they might try to make him a franchise QB and have it turn out to be a miserable failure. Just because a team tries something obviously doesn't make it smart.

#2 is that the Saints want Hill to stay in NO as part of the offense for what might be the last hurrah for Payton and Brees. You say "much cheaper," but the difference between a 1st and 2nd round tender is less than 2M. If they want him in their system for this last push, 1.5M is a pretty small price to pay in return for near certainty that they get to keep him in 2020 on a team friendly deal.

#3 is that they believe they have intel that someone might be trying to come get him and thus want to get a 1st round pick back in that potential scenario rather than a 2nd.

My guess is #2-- Brees is 41 years old. At this point, any season could be his last chance to win another Super Bowl. Hill was a very useful part of their offense down the stretch, and they can keep him for one more year for less than 5M in cap space. In their mind, why risk losing him for a mere 1.5M in savings? Make sure you keep him for 2020 and then he can hit unrestricted free agency and the market can sort him out.

But we need to avoid this fallacy-- being worth a 1st or 2nd round tender is way different than being worth a 1st or 2nd round pick.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But we need to avoid this fallacy-- being worth a 1st or 2nd round tender is way different than being worth a 1st or 2nd round pick.

You might be confusing the 2, but I haven't. Again, the Saints felt that at minimum, they are willing to pay Hill 1st round Tender money. That tells me that they didn't want to run the risk of loosing him and only getting a 2nd round pick in return. As you stated a bit in your options 1 and 3, the Saints feel someone would have been willing to give up a 2nd to try and who knows what kind of salary to sign him.

BTW, this doesn't change my mind on whether he is a future franchise/starting QB, I don't think anyone really knows either way at this point. However, it wouldn't surprise me that a QB needy team might be willing to pay some money to see if he is. A first and that money? Maybe not, we will see. What the Saints and any other teams obviously know, even if they don't have a starting QB, they have a pretty valuable player.

 

[Dantés]

You might be confusing the 2, but I haven't. Again, the Saints felt that at minimum, they are willing to pay Hill 1st round Tender money. That tells me that they didn't want to run the risk of loosing him and only getting a 2nd round pick in return. As you stated a bit in your options 1 and 3, the Saints feel someone would have been willing to give up a 2nd to try and who knows what kind of salary to sign him.

BTW, this doesn't change my mind on whether he is a future franchise/starting QB, I don't think anyone really knows either way at this point. However, it wouldn't surprise me that a QB needy team might be willing to pay some money to see if he is. A first and that money? Maybe not, we will see. What the Saints and any other teams obviously know, even if they don't have a starting QB, they have a pretty valuable player.

Right-- it's totally possible that they felt that, for them, they'd rather have him back for one more cheap season while they try to make a Super Bowl run than have a 2nd round pick in exchange. Taysom Hill is doing more for them in 2020 than a 2nd round rookie.

But that's a pretty particular situation. They don't have to make a long term commitment. They get him cheap. And they're in the ultimate "win now" mode with Drew Brees at 41.

But you said that they're willing to pay the "much higher" 1st round tender price. It's like 1.5M. So I don't know how big of a deal really needs to be made out of it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But you said that they're willing to pay the "much higher" 1st round tender price. It's like 1.5M. So I don't know how big of a deal really needs to be made out of it.

Actually, all I said/asked was "Some here adamantly expressed that he was in no way worth a 2nd round pick, if that was the case, why didn't the Saints just put a much cheaper 2nd round tender on him?" I consider $1.5M "much cheaper." Hell, Captain could get 3 kickers with THAT! You are using the words "much higher" in regards to tender price. We are debating semantics though. I view the first round tender as the Saints thinking if they didn't, another team was going to make them match an amount equal to or higher than a first round tender and if they didn't they would lose him and only get a second round pick. With the first round tender they are setting a higher starting salary bar, as well as a higher cost of a first round pick for another team to try and sign him. Or another way to look at it. Had the Saints only put a second round tender on him, my guess is they thought someone would have gone after him and that would have cost the Saints much more than the base salary of a first round tender cost. Smart move on the Saints part IMO.

 

[GleefulGary]

You might be confusing the 2, but I haven't. Again, the Saints felt that at minimum, they are willing to pay Hill 1st round Tender money. That tells me that they didn't want to run the risk of loosing him and only getting a 2nd round pick in return. As you stated a bit in your options 1 and 3, the Saints feel someone would have been willing to give up a 2nd to try and who knows what kind of salary to sign him.

BTW, this doesn't change my mind on whether he is a future franchise/starting QB, I don't think anyone really knows either way at this point. However, it wouldn't surprise me that a QB needy team might be willing to pay some money to see if he is. A first and that money? Maybe not, we will see. What the Saints and any other teams obviously know, even if they don't have a starting QB, they have a pretty valuable player.

What is your opinion on whether he's a future franchise QB or not?

 

[Dantés]

I don't think anyone can make him an offer yet?

Seems like the Saints are willing to pay him 1st round tender money to try and keep him in New Orleans. Some here adamantly expressed that he was in no way worth a 2nd round pick, if that was the case, why didn't the Saints just put a much cheaper 2nd round tender on him?

Actually, all I said/asked was "Some here adamantly expressed that he was in no way worth a 2nd round pick, if that was the case, why didn't the Saints just put a much cheaper 2nd round tender on him?" I consider $1.5M "much cheaper." Hell, Captain could get 3 kickers with THAT! You are using the words "much higher" in regards to tender price. We are debating semantics though. I view the first round tender as the Saints thinking if they didn't, another team was going to make them match an amount equal to or higher than a first round tender and if they didn't they would lose him and only get a second round pick. With the first round tender they are setting a higher starting salary bar, as well as a higher cost of a first round pick for another team to try and sign him. Or another way to look at it. Had the Saints only put a second round tender on him, my guess is they thought someone would have gone after him and that would have cost the Saints much more than the base salary of a first round tender cost. Smart move on the Saints part IMO.

Yes, that's what I'm referring to. 1.5M, or 0.7% of the salary cap, is not a significant amount of cap space relative to the big picture. You can consider it whatever you'd like, but the fact is that on its own, it's an amount that has a negligible effect on a team's salary cap picture. So if NO is intent on keeping him for 2020, it makes sense to me that they'd pay the extra 1.5M to make that a near certainty.

It's possible that you're right and that a 2nd round tender would have meant that a team took Hill away from New Orleans. I don't know. But that's irrelevant to my opinion that he's not worth a 2nd round pick. And if a team did it, it wouldn't change my opinion-- I think it would be a stupid thing to do, for reasons stated plenty already in this thread.

And to your last point-- I think you're totally right. It is a smart move on the Saints part. They get to keep an effective wrinkle in their offense for less than 5M without committing anything to him long term. No brainer. But it's also a totally different proposition than giving up a 2nd round pick and paying him a long term contract. The latter is what I think smart teams would have no interest in.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I think management will see that he's a possible Qb2 on that team and I doubt they sign another high profile backup.

Man, I totally nailed my assessment on Hill. *pats self on back.

 

[Dantés]

Man, I totally nailed my assessment on Hill. *pats self on back.

They haven't even had the chance to add another QB via FA or the draft...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes, that's what I'm referring to. 1.5M, or 0.7% of the salary cap, is not a significant amount of cap space relative to the big picture.

You percentage might try to make it look insignificant, but when you consider the mean salary of an NFL player is $860,000, its equal to 2 players. Also, that is only the dollar difference between the 2 tenders, not Hill's entire salary. So I think its more money in the grand scheme of things than just an insignificant amount, especially if you decided to spend that much extra on every player.

But that's irrelevant to my opinion that he's not worth a 2nd round pick.

I understand what the Saints did doesn't coincide with your opinion, but sorry, I am going to trust their opinion over yours, as irrelevant as you might think it is.

 

[Dantés]

You percentage might try to make it look insignificant, but when you consider the mean salary of an NFL player is $860,000, its equal to 2 players. Also, that is only the dollar difference between the 2 tenders, not Hill's entire salary. So I think its more money in the grand scheme of things than just an insignificant amount, especially if you decided to spend that much extra on every player.

I understand what the Saints did doesn't coincide with your opinion, but sorry, I am going to trust their opinion over yours, as irrelevant as you might think it is.

Dude, you're getting pretty touchy about this issue. You need to calm down. It's not that big of a deal that I don't see this player the way you do.

The percentage doesn't try to do anything. It's just a fact. The difference between between a 2nd round tender and 1st round tender isn't a significant amount of cap space.

1.5M isn't equal to two players, because the vast majority of players on that low of salary are on rookie deals. You can't just go out and get guys on rookie deals. You have to draft them.

I have no idea what you mean by that last comment. Are you saying that it would be a big deal to pay all 53 players on a given roster an extra 1.5M? Because of course that's true, but I don't see what that has to do with anything.

 

[GleefulGary]

I also agree with the Saints decision that Hill is a valuable gadget player who isn't a starting QB.

I mean, after all, even when their starting QB was hurt, they still didn't play Hill at QB.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Dude, you're getting pretty touchy about this issue. You need to calm down. It's not that big of a deal that I don't see this player the way you do.

The percentage doesn't try to do anything. It's just a fact. The difference between between a 2nd round tender and 1st round tender isn't a significant amount of cap space.

1.5M isn't equal to two players, because the vast majority of players on that low of salary are on rookie deals. You can't just go out and get guys on rookie deals. You have to draft them.

I have no idea what you mean by that last comment. Are you saying that it would be a big deal to pay all 53 players on a given roster an extra 1.5M? Because of course that's true, but I don't see what that has to do with anything.

LOL....trust me, I am very calm. I was merely pointing out that the Saints placing a first round tender on Hill isn't just an inconsequential thing, which seems to be the way you are now trying to pitch it. I get it, this thread started out with a few of you thinking and emphatically trying to pitch that Hill was just a gadget player that wouldn't be worth a second round pick and now that the Saints have cast a shadow on your opinion, you are trying to spin it in another direction.

I would be more impressed if you simply said "wow, the first round tender shocked me, still not something I would do."

 

[GreenNGold_81]

LOL....trust me, I am very calm. I was merely pointing out that the Saints placing a first round tender on Hill isn't just an inconsequential thing, which seems to be the way you are now trying to pitch it. I get it, this thread started out with a few of you thinking and emphatically trying to pitch that Hill was just a gadget player that wouldn't be worth a second round pick and now that the Saints have cast a shadow on your opinion, you are trying to spin it in another direction.

I would be more impressed if you simply said "wow, the first round tender shocked me, still not something I would do."

Definitely the way I'm seeing it too. The Saints aren't dumb, this secures their backup plan. They don't have to teach a rookie or a different vet the playbook now. It's also possible they caught wind that another team may be interested in spending a 2nd on Hill.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Definitely the way I'm seeing it too. The Saints aren't dumb, this secures their backup plan. They don't have to teach a rookie or a different vet the playbook now. It's also possible they caught wind that another team may be interested in spending a 2nd on Hill.

Exactly. I think many have this incorrect perception that a 2nd rd. pick is a super valuable guaranteed "cheap stud". However, if you look at some of the most recent second round picks of the Packers: Josh Jackson, Josh Jones (same year Taysom was signed as an UDFA), Jason Spriggs, Quinton Rollins, Jerel Worthy, Brian Brohm, Pat Lee....it isn't always the case. If I could use a crystal ball and get a player that contributes like Taysom Hill with every second round pick, I would be all over it.

Don't get me wrong, plenty of good players have been found in the 2nd round, but there is a difference between knowing exactly what you are getting (Taysom Hill) and hoping you are getting a guy that will contribute past his rookie contract. Throw in the fact that the Saints might even be getting a future starting QB, something nobody seems to be quite sure of either way yet. But to me, that is just extra gravy on a guy that already can do what he can do outside of playing QB and being a backup QB.

 

[Dantés]

LOL....trust me, I am very calm. I was merely pointing out that the Saints placing a first round tender on Hill isn't just an inconsequential thing, which seems to be the way you are now trying to pitch it. I get it, this thread started out with a few of you thinking and emphatically trying to pitch that Hill was just a gadget player that wouldn't be worth a second round pick and now that the Saints have cast a shadow on your opinion, you are trying to spin it in another direction.

I would be more impressed if you simply said "wow, the first round tender shocked me, still not something I would do."

Did you miss the part where I listed the possibilities and the first one was that I have this thing all wrong? Because that was literally the first thing I said, and you're still upset.

Does the way that people have tried to pitch Bridgewater getting all the starts last year as inconsequential count too? Or the way that people have tried to pitch his 13 career pass attempts as inconsequential?

Because those things cast a pretty serious shadow on the other side of the debate and I've read a lot of spin on that side too.

It's almost as if the two sides disagree and the evidence isn't conclusive...

 

[Dantés]

Exactly. I think many have this incorrect perception that a 2nd rd. pick is a super valuable guaranteed "cheap stud". However, if you look at some of the most recent second round picks of the Packers: Josh Jackson, Josh Jones (same year Taysom was signed as an UDFA), Jason Spriggs, Quinton Rollins, Jerel Worthy, Brian Brohm, Pat Lee....it isn't always the case. If I could use a crystal ball and get a player that contributes like Taysom Hill with every second round pick, I would be all over it.

Don't get me wrong, plenty of good players have been found in the 2nd round, but there is a difference between knowing exactly what you are getting (Taysom Hill) and hoping you are getting a guy that will contribute past his rookie contract. Throw in the fact that the Saints might even be getting a future starting QB, something nobody seems to be quite sure of either way yet. But to me, that is just extra gravy on a guy that already can do what he can do outside of playing QB and being a backup QB.

You continue to miss the main point.

Hill's value on the field compared to the potential of a 2nd round pick is one thing. We could debate that.

But it would not just be a 2nd round pick. It would be a 2nd plus a hefty veteran contract for a player that views himself as a QB. And Hill, despite being a nice offensive weapon, is most certainly not worth a 2nd AND Green Bay's biggest cap expenditure of the offseason.

 

[Pugger]

I also agree with the Saints decision that Hill is a valuable gadget player who isn't a starting QB.

I mean, after all, even when their starting QB was hurt, they still didn't play Hill at QB.

Are they going to let Bridgewater walk?

 

[Dantés]

Are they going to let Bridgewater walk?

100%, yes. They can't afford him. He's going to get starter money.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But it would not just be a 2nd round pick. It would be a 2nd plus a hefty veteran contract for a player that views himself as a QB.

I think that is the unknown at this time that will keep the contract low enough to justify keeping him for his other skills as well as being their #2 and potentially a starter. I highly doubt any team is stupid enough to offer him starter money or even 2019 Teddy Bridewater money. He hasn't proven himself to be a starter or even a full time backup. As a matter of fact, if he wasn't doing everything else he was doing and only carrying a clipboard, he would be lucky to be getting a min contract for backups. This has never been about whether he is a franchise or a starter to me and some of you keep wanting to make it about that. The Saint are slapping the first round tag on him and are willing to pay him that price, because of all the things he does, mostly not as a QB. There is some definite value that he is also probably good enough to be their #2, as well as there is the potential of him being a starter some day. All of those traits combined have a value, for this year the Saints have said that it is at least $4.6M and are willing to pay it and see what happens next season.

This whole notion of "he views himself as a franchise QB" really means nothing at this time. It might next year when he could becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent, but even then, 32 teams will determine his value, just like they do for every other player looking for employment in the NFL.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Did you miss the part where I listed the possibilities and the first one was that I have this thing all wrong? Because that was literally the first thing I said, and you're still upset.

Listing that as a possibility is much different than actually saying it was the case. I can list 1000 possible outcomes of the draft, but making that list doesn't make me right when one of those outcomes actually happens. It's called Covering your ***.

You are mistaking a good debate, which is what I view this as, as me being upset. BTW, I could always be wrong too....there I said it....for future use.

 

[Dantés]

Listing that as a possibility is much different than actually saying it was the case. I can list 1000 possible outcomes of the draft, but making that list doesn't make me right when one of those outcomes actually happens. It's called Covering your ***.

You are mistaking a good debate, which is what I view this as, as me being upset. BTW, I could always be wrong too....there I said it....for future use.

So if I admit the possibility that I have this wrong, then I'm just covering my ***, but if I tell you that I don't think anything has happened significant enough to change my mind, I'm a spin doctor.

Yeah, for sure you're being totally level headed about this.

 

[Dantés]

I think that is the unknown at this time that will keep the contract low enough to justify keeping him for his other skills as well as being their #2 and potentially a starter. 1. I highly doubt any team is stupid enough to offer him starter money or even 2019 Teddy Bridewater money. He hasn't proven himself to be a starter or even a full time backup. As a matter of fact, if he wasn't doing everything else he was doing and only carrying a clipboard, he would be lucky to be getting a min contract for backups. This has never been about whether he is a franchise or a starter to me and some of you keep wanting to make it about that. 2. The Saint are slapping the first round tag on him and are willing to pay him that price, because of all the things he does, mostly not as a QB. There is some definite value that 3. he is also probably good enough to be their #2, as well as there is the potential of him being a starter some day. All of those traits combined have a value, for this year the Saints have said that it is at least $4.6M and are willing to pay it and see what happens next season.

This whole notion of "he views himself as a franchise QB" really means nothing at this time. It might next year when he could becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent, but even then, 32 teams will determine his value, just like they do for every other player looking for employment in the NFL.

1. Ok-- so let's say that he wants to get paid like a QB and teams feel that's too risky because he doesn't have a sample size of snaps worth anything at QB. So where does that land then? You could very conservatively estimate that he gets significantly less than half of the going rate for a good starting QB. You're still paying him 10M/season to be a gadget in your offense. That's on top of a 2nd round pick. That would be ridiculously stupid. If Gutekunst did that, I'd hope the board issued him his walking papers the next day.

2. Yes, and that price is something just under 5M on a one year deal. Remember what I said however long ago when you asked me what he was worth as an offensive weapon? I said 5M. And now they're paying him just under that and you're saying "told you so!"

3. If they go into the season with only Brees and Hill at QB, then I will be forced to admit that they view him as more of a legit, true QB (i.e. not just an offensive weapon) than I do. I continue to think that he only works in this league as a starting QB if you completely change the offensive system to suit him, a la Baltimore and Jackson.