Pittsburgh studs duds

[RRyder]

+/- .15 in a shorts and tee shirt 40 time is meaningless

For one thing plays develope in the first 5-10 yards

Yeah. Running in pads and a 40 time in shorts are two completely separate things. As an example Jennings didnt exactly have a blazing 40 time but it didnt stil him from being our best deep threat while he was here. Part of that is route running but another part is some guys dont lose much speed when the pads go on where as others a fair amount.

People posting comparative 40 times should simply watch side by side comparisons and tell me one only looks a lil faster

 

[Dantés]

I would guess that the Packer are hoping that one of the young guys will fill Ryan's shoes and another being a quality backup. Burks is showing flashes of potential, but still not that excited about him being a Game 1 starter so quick. As we get closer to the cut down and then Sept. 9th, I fully expect if there isn't some improvement in the final 2 preseason games at ILB, we will see someone like Bowman signed. For me, I would rather see that happen now, get him in camp and playing in at least one of the preseason games. This gives the Packers a much deeper rotation, as well as Burks more time to be ready. With Ryan's contract up at the end of this season, hopefully Burks will turn out to be our future starter alongside Martinez. I would be fine with Ryan being resigned, as a backup.

Bowman might scare some people due to a few disagreements he had with coaches, but I would take that over the defense getting gashed on the run consistently.

His combined tackles total is impressive:

2017 (15 games): 127
2016 (4 games) 35
2015 (16) 154
2013 (16) 145
2012 (16) 148
2011 (16) 143

Blake Martinez who everyone is labeling a tackling machine, had 144 last year.

The thing about Bowman that doesn't make sense to me is that he would ideally play Martinez's role in the defense, not Burks'. He might play alongside Martinez in goal line, short yardage situations or if they should be playing a team that's using a lot of 21/22 personnel. But on the whole, he would be a backup. For better or worse, I think Burks is the man to start the season. He is going to have some growing pains, but when he's kept clean and he processes quickly, I've seen the playmaker in him.

What they'll have to assess is whether they can do better than Thomas and Martini as backups. Maybe they see a roster cut that they like better. But I can also envision a situation where Thomas is the primary backup and Martini is a ST stalwart and they roll with that group.

I wonder if we will see some of this front:

----------------------Martinez-----------------Matthews

Perry--------Daniels--------Clark-----------Wilkerson

Using Matthews as a SAM in a hybrid role, where he's more of a blitzer/dropper than true pass rusher.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Some guys actually run faster than their times when they are being chased. Jerry Rice was like that. Afraid of being caught.

I didn't see anything wrong with Kumerow's speed.

 

[BrokenArrow]

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jordy-nelson/
Jordy: 4.51

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jake-kumerow/
Kumerow - 4.58

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/jake-kumerow?id=2553235

Kumerow - 4.52

 

[BrokenArrow]

If he misses the next two weeks I think it’s the perfect opportunity to try and stash him on the PS. I’ve loved how he looks but he is still 26 with a limited athletic ceiling. I think our best case scenario is Adams, Cobb, Allison, Davis(for kick returns), and 3 rookies with Kumerow on PS. He is a perfect guy to call up if/when an injury occurs and be a solid safe option.

A big NO on Davis. He's worthless as a WR and makes bad decisions as a returner.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The thing about Bowman that doesn't make sense to me is that he would ideally play Martinez's role in the defense, not Burks'. He might play alongside Martinez in goal line, short yardage situations or if they should be playing a team that's using a lot of 21/22 personnel. But on the whole, he would be a backup. For better or worse, I think Burks is the man to start the season. He is going to have some growing pains, but when he's kept clean and he processes quickly, I've seen the playmaker in him.

What they'll have to assess is whether they can do better than Thomas and Martini as backups. Maybe they see a roster cut that they like better. But I can also envision a situation where Thomas is the primary backup and Martini is a ST stalwart and they roll with that group.

I wonder if we will see some of this front:

----------------------Martinez-----------------Matthews

Perry--------Daniels--------Clark-----------Wilkerson

Using Matthews as a SAM in a hybrid role, where he's more of a blitzer/dropper than true pass rusher.

I think you would see Bowman out there more than just short yardage and goal line, most likely 1st down and possibly second down, depending on the distance. Bowman is an upgrade IMO over Ryan and I just find it hard to believe Burks is ready to go full on. However, even if it is Burks seeing more action than Bowman, you have just added quality depth at what I think will be a reasonable salary. Relying on Burks probably doesn't scare me as much as what happens if and when he or Martinez go down with an injury? We have seen this happen too many times under TT, a position group just too thin with developmental guys and injuries completely expose the position. I don't see Martini being the guy you want on the 53, PS yes, 53 no.

 

[Dantés]

I think you would see Bowman out there more than just short yardage and goal line, most likely 1st down and possibly second down, depending on the distance. Bowman is an upgrade IMO over Ryan and I just find it hard to believe Burks is ready to go full on. However, even if it is Burks seeing more action than Bowman, you have just added quality depth at what I think will be a reasonable salary. Relying on Burks probably doesn't scare me as much as what happens if and when he or Martinez go down with an injury? We have seen this happen too many times under TT, a position group just too thin with developmental guys and injuries completely expose the position. I don't see Martini being the guy you want on the 53, PS yes, 53 no.

I think formation matters a lot more than the down. With the prevalence of 11 and 12 personnel, defenses can’t typically keep two linebackers in the mold of Martinez and Bowman on the field together. Of course you’re correct that a guy like Bowman would give he Packers much better depth behind Martinez. I just don’t think his presence would do much to affect Burks’ role.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The thing about Bowman that doesn't make sense to me is that he would ideally play Martinez's role in the defense, not Burks'. He might play alongside Martinez in goal line, short yardage situations or if they should be playing a team that's using a lot of 21/22 personnel. But on the whole, he would be a backup.

That would be correct. Last season, with Jones and then Burnett playing the hybrid ILB role, Ryan had a 48% snap count. That's about what you'd be looking for out of Bowman.

And yet, the Packers are paying Wilkerson $4.9 mil/$7.55 including incentives which I'd assume will not be earned unless Daniels or Clark gets injured and his snap count goes way up with strong production.

Wilkerson is filling a similar role to the hypothetical Bowman, for 25 minus x% snaps in the 3-man base set, and rotation into the 2-man pass rush line to when Daniels or Clark needs a blow. If Daniels or Clark were to be injured, he fills that hole. In that respect he is insurance.

Bowman may not be signed at this juncture because he's holding out for a more substantial primary role than the one envisioned above, and a more substantial check to go with it. That's possible with 32 teams with potential injuries and disappointments as the fateful day draws nigh.

I wouldn't pay that. Nor would I even pay him Wilkerson money. I'd be thinking more along the lines of Ahmad Brooks $3.5 mil, but with incentives as possible additional pay if he had to play more snaps than anticipated, like the hypothetical injury to Martinez. If he wants to play and there are no takers as opening day approaches, he just might have to settle.

This is all dependent on clean medicals, not something like a gamey back a guy thinks he can play through like Brooks.

 

[Dantés]

That would be correct. Last season, with Jones and then Burnett playing the hybrid ILB role, Ryan had 48% snap count. That's about what you'd be looking for out of Bowman.

And yet, the Packers are paying Wilkerson $4.9 mil/$7.55 including incentives which I'd assume will not be earned unless Daniels or Clark gets injured and his snap count goes way up with strong production.

Wilkerson is filling a similar role to the hypothetical Bowman, for 25 minus x% snaps in the 3-man base set, and rotation into the 2-man pass rush line to when Daniels or Clark needs a blow. If Daniels or Clark were to be injured, he fills that hole. In that respect he is insurance.

The key difference there, I think, is that in Pettine’s defense I would expect to see a lot of sub (specifically nickel) that still features three true defensive linemen.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The key difference there, I think, is that in Pettine’s defense I would expect to see a lot of sub (specifically nickel) that still features three true defensive linemen.

I would not be surprised to see it, but I would be very surpirsed to see it "a lot". This assumes one of two things:

1) You're pulled Perry or Matthews (or Gilbert if one of those guys is injured) off the field, in what amounts to a 4-3 hybrid line with a stand-up elephant in Perry or Matthews while retaining 2 ILBs. Is that the optimal pass rush combination at this stage of Wilkerson's career? Please do not tell me that this configuration will be played "a lot" with Matthews at ILB. There's an assumption here that Wilkerson will return to his double-digit sack glory of 2013 or 2015 which, one should be reminded, were after Pettine moved on to the Buffalo head coaching job. You do not have your best edge rushers on the field in this configuration.

2) Alternatively, one supposes, it could be a 3-man front with Perry and Matthews on the edge, essentially a 3-4 base front, with one ILB and 5 DBs. That ain't gonna work, being highly vulnerable to the run and passes to and across the short middle that NFL offesnes like so much these days and which gave rise to the hybrid ILB. Now. you could bring a safety up into the box, but now he's in hybrid mode and you're back to a base configuration. That's where I would expect Wilkerson to get his primary snaps...in base.

Your proposal only makes sense if:

1) Wilkerson is more productive rushing the passer at what amounts to a 4-3 DE position (5-tech or wide 5 on the weak side, 6 tech over the TE on the strong side) that what you'd get out of Perry or Matthews. There's no way he plays true edge at 9 tech.

or

2) He's as productive as Peppers justifying a 3-man edge rotation with varying looks. Wilkerson might have been that guy a few years ago. I'm not seeing it now. Maybe he'll surprise me.

or

3) Your best bet is if Perry or Matthews in injured and Gilbert doesn't flash under the bright lights against first teamers. But getting back to Navarro, which is where this started, that's one of the reasons you'd want him, or somebody else with similar characteristics...injury backup.

But this disucssion was about Navarro with Wilkerson's role as a point of comparison. I don't propose paying him even Wilkerson money.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If he misses the next two weeks I think it’s the perfect opportunity to try and stash him on the PS. I’ve loved how he looks but he is still 26 with a limited athletic ceiling. I think our best case scenario is Adams, Cobb, Allison, Davis(for kick returns), and 3 rookies with Kumerow on PS. He is a perfect guy to call up if/when an injury occurs and be a solid safe option.

Kumerow has performed better than any of the rookie receivers, therefore it might make more sense stashing one of them on the practice squad.

Doubt he is eligible. This is his 4th year already. Maybe IR him? I think it's either active roster or he is cut.

According to the Press Gazette roster builder Kumerow is practice squad eligible.

About Allison...you do realize we are in pre-season? It does not sound like it. Just for curiosity sake with all the stat mongerers...how many tosses went his way. Prediction...he will show up and play very well in the first real game.

Allison has been targeted four times this preseason catching two balls for 12 yards. He has to perform better than that to stay ahead of others on the depth chart.

Using Matthews as a SAM in a hybrid role, where he's more of a blitzer/dropper than true pass rusher.

The Packers would take away Matthews best trait lining him up as a SAM as he wouldn't primarily rush the passer.

 

[thequick12]

J'mon Moore has one more week to get these drops out of his head and start producing before he's in serious danger of getting cut, even despite being a 4th round pick. It's hard to envision a rookie picked that high with that much talent getting released, but if he can't catch a ball, what's the harm?

No way they release dude, not a chance.

 

[thequick12]

I never thought Kumerow would make the 53, but now question for those who think he will make the 53, with this sprained sc joint in his shoulder, if he misses the next 2 weeks of practice and preseason does he make the team?

Yes kumerow makes the team. You can say its pre season and hes been making plays against 3rd and 4th stringers. But the truth of the matter is those are the same players he's gonna be lined up across from when the games count. No one's putting their starting corners on kumerow. As the 4th option at wr he'll be going against the other teams 4th corner. Which as he has consistently shown is a battle he can win big.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

No way they release dude, not a chance.

If Moore doesn't start to catch the ball there's a chance he won't make the roster.

Yes kumerow makes the team. You can say its pre season and hes been making plays against 3rd and 4th stringers. But the truth of the matter is those are the same players he's gonna be lined up across from when the games count. No one's putting their starting corners on kumerow. As the 4th option at wr he'll be going against the other teams 4th corner. Which as he has consistently shown is a battle he can win big.

Kumerow has mostly been lined up against cornerbacks that won't even make an NFL roster let alone get playing time in the regular season so far though.

 

[PikeBadger]

I didn't see anything wrong with Kumerow's speed.

Me either. I think the guy can be a very productive NFL receiver. He knows how to play the game and he’s got instinctual awareness from what I’ve seen.

 

[XPack]

He looked slow on that 82 yard tuddy, especially with the way that that backer was gaining on him.

Yeah. The #46 linebacker nearly caught him.

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[AmishMafia]

Yeah. The #46 linebacker nearly caught him.

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Yup. I guess we have to keep in mind that if we keep Kumerow, we cant expect many TDs over 85 yards.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yup. I guess we have to keep in mind that if we keep Kumerow, we cant expect many TDs over 85 yards.

That's a good one.

Do we really need from me another disseration on quickness vs. 40 time vs. long speed? Of course not.

Let's just say if Kumerow makes the roster (which is a strong possibility at this juncture) it will not be on the basis of a great 100 meter time (see Nelson). It will be on the basis of his quickness in the route that left the first guy grabbing air and then the quickness in the cutback that left #31 grabbing more air. That eye test quick twitch in a 6' 4 1/2" body is pretty unusual, borne out, to repeat, by his Pro Day shuttle and cone times.

Anyway, after he switched the ball to his right arm and was back in full stride at the Pittsburgh 40, he did four glance-backs to see what was coming and if he needed to redirect. That's the way you do it, but those glance backs will take a tick or two out of the straight line speed.

Here's an added bonus observation:

Kumerow ran his Pro Day 40 at 4.54.

#31 Nate Berhe ran a Pro Day 40 at 4.55 and couldn't close the gap.

#46 Matthew Thomas, that "linebacker", ran a Pro Day 4.44 with some evident long speed. I looked to see if he ever ran the 100 meters in high school. Couldn't find anything but if he didn't maybe he should have.

As a football player, not a track man, this is no Jeff Janis, fellas, and you sure wouldn't want him to be.

The only question now, when you wrap it all up, is whether Kumerow is a better football player that any or all of the rookies. We're past the stage of athletic measurables and draft position since the eye test of what the guy is doing on the field is consistent with those numbers.

 

[HardRightEdge]

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/jake-kumerow?id=2553235

Kumerow - 4.52

As an FYI, reported Combine and Pro Day times are the average of two runs. For point of comparison to other guys, Kumerow's time is best viewed as 4.54.

I didn't see anything wrong with Kumerow's speed.

That is the short answer. Well done.

 

[HardRightEdge]

According to the Press Gazette roster builder Kumerow is practice squad eligible.

I'm not seeing any changes to the PS rules for 2018. If 2017 rules still apply Kumerow's 2018 PS eligibilty is easily explained if the time line in the following link is accurate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Kumerow

According to the 2017 rules, one way to qualify for PS is to have 2 or fewer previous seasons on a PS, with a PS season defined as 6 weeks or more on a PS.

If that time line is correct, 2015 and 2016 would count as PS seasons with the Bengals.

In 2017, he was waived/injured before the season started, placed on IR, then injury settled before he got to an accrured season. Then he spent just a couple of weeks on New England's PS and never got to the 6 week mark.

So, he has 2 official PS seasons under belt and no accrued seasons. That would explain Kumerow's PS eligibility.

Another way to qualify, which does not involve Kumerow, is having two or fewer accrued seasons of free agency credit under a rule that allows up to 4 such "veteran" players on PS per team..

From all indications, Jeronimo Allison qualifies for the PS. In fact, the entire last 2 draft classes for the entire league would qualify, up to 4 per team.

After reading several web published articles from respectable sources I have not found one that makes clear how a combination of accrued seasons and PS seasons works.

Can a guy have 2 PS seasons and 2 accrued seasons under the "4 veterans" rule and spend yet a 5th. season on the PS? Dunno. It's really just a curiosity. If a guy can't make a 53 man roster in his 5th. year there likely isn't going to be much interest in putting him on a PS at that point.

 

[Dantés]

Kumerow has performed better than any of the rookie receivers, therefore it might make more sense stashing one of them on the practice squad.



According to the Press Gazette roster builder Kumerow is practice squad eligible.



Allison has been targeted four times this preseason catching two balls for 12 yards. He has to perform better than that to stay ahead of others on the depth chart.



The Packers would take away Matthews best trait lining him up as a SAM as he wouldn't primarily rush the passer.

I’m not saying that Matthews would never line up as a true edge rusher. But it would be characteristic of Pettine’s defense to see a lot of snaps with three DL and one edge. I think that edge will be Perry more often than not, because he lacks Matthews’ off-ball skills and is probably the better pass rusher at this point when healthy.

 

[Poppa San]

Anyway, after he switched the ball to his right arm and was back in full stride at the Pittsburgh 40, he did four glance-backs to see what was coming and if he needed to redirect. That's the way you do it, but those glance backs will take a tick or two out of the straight line speed.

A few more experience runs and at the 20 he starts angling away from the two defenders towards the far pylon somewhat. Use the slower of the two defenders to shield from the one gaining. I've seen many big time receivers do that, Jordy and Adams for two. Do not know if any other defenders were on their way from the far side either.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Something else that has gotten kind of lost in that JK 82 yard TD was the pass. Nice touch on it across the field by Kizer, putting the ball perfectly outside, where only JK could catch it.

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[OldSchool101]

Hey Poker. Yeah, that pass by Kizer was $$. I’ve also noticed, during both preseason games, an intangible that Kizer posesses in that he stands tall in the pocket with good awareness. He just looks more comfortable out there from a layman’s perspective.
I believe that for whatever reason God puts us in certain situations to shine or to fail.
There’s no explaining other than to rise to the occasion when the situation presents itself. That video is reminiscent of an Aaron to Jordy type play and I believe moved him up a spot on the depth chart.

 

[Dantés]

I would not be surprised to see it, but I would be very surpirsed to see it "a lot". This assumes one of two things:

1) You're pulled Perry or Matthews (or Gilbert if one of those guys is injured) off the field, in what amounts to a 4-3 hybrid line with a stand-up elephant in Perry or Matthews while retaining 2 ILBs. Is that the optimal pass rush combination at this stage of Wilkerson's career? Please do not tell me that this configuration will be played "a lot" with Matthews at ILB. There's an assumption here that Wilkerson will return to his double-digit sack glory of 2013 or 2015 which, one should be reminded, were after Pettine moved on to the Buffalo head coaching job. You do not have your best edge rushers on the field in this configuration.

2) Alternatively, one supposes, it could be a 3-man front with Perry and Matthews on the edge, essentially a 3-4 base front, with one ILB and 5 DBs. That ain't gonna work, being highly vulnerable to the run and passes to and across the short middle that NFL offesnes like so much these days and which gave rise to the hybrid ILB. Now. you could bring a safety up into the box, but now he's in hybrid mode and you're back to a base configuration. That's where I would expect Wilkerson to get his primary snaps...in base.

Your proposal only makes sense if:

1) Wilkerson is more productive rushing the passer at what amounts to a 4-3 DE position (5-tech or wide 5 on the weak side, 6 tech over the TE on the strong side) that what you'd get out of Perry or Matthews. There's no way he plays true edge at 9 tech.

or

2) He's as productive as Peppers justifying a 3-man edge rotation with varying looks. Wilkerson might have been that guy a few years ago. I'm not seeing it now. Maybe he'll surprise me.

or

3) Your best bet is if Perry or Matthews in injured and Gilbert doesn't flash under the bright lights against first teamers. But getting back to Navarro, which is where this started, that's one of the reasons you'd want him, or somebody else with similar characteristics...injury backup.

But this disucssion was about Navarro with Wilkerson's role as a point of comparison. I don't propose paying him even Wilkerson money.

I would define "a lot" as 100-200 snaps. The team is deep and talented on the defensive line and shallow/questionable at edge rusher. Pettine's defense relies on scheming free rushers via blitz combinations as much or more than on guys who win one-on-one match-ups and he has incorporated more DL use to that end than we've been used to seeing in Green Bay. I don't think Wilkerson is going to be his old dominant self, but I do think that he can be effective enough in limited opportunities to be a 5T rusher.