Packers exercise fifth-year option on Clark

[Deleted member 6794]

No surprise there.

https://eu.packersnews.com/story/sp...up-kenny-clarks-fifth-year-option/3638982002/

 

[PackAttack12]

Easiest decision of the offseason.

 

[gbgary]

no surprise. would be silly not to. gives them a year to come up with an extension.

 

[GleefulGary]

Kenny Clark is so good.

He makes everybody around him better. Can control doubles well. If they don't double him, somebody is getting pushed back. And if he's getting doubled, everybody else on the line has a 1 on 1 matchup.

And Kenny is only 23! He's two years older than Gary. Couple months older than Elgton Jenkins. Younger than Dalton Risner. Will probably be a rare 3 contract guy with the Packers.

 

[LoafInIowa]

Very happy about this signing. Need a cornerstone on the DL, to build Pettine's defense around.

 

[gbgary]

Kenny Clark is so good.

He makes everybody around him better. Can control doubles well. If they don't double him, somebody is getting pushed back. And if he's getting doubled, everybody else on the line has a 1 on 1 matchup.

And Kenny is only 23! He's two years older than Gary. Couple months older than Elgton Jenkins. Younger than Dalton Risner. Will probably be a rare 3 contract guy with the Packers.

there's a good chance.

 

[Dantés]

They should get his contract extension done this offseason. No need to let him go out there in 2019 and raise the price.

 

[OldSchool101]

Kenny may just have benefited as much as anyone with all these D draft signings.
We should get pressure from a variety of angles and it often becomes the interior DT that ends up being the recipient of a QB running into his lap in delayed fashion as he scrambles. He’s really solid, I expect him to pick up a few extra shared sacks.

 

[gbgary]

They should get his contract extension done this offseason. No need to let him go out there in 2019 and raise the price.

they're up against it cap wise. better to wait until next off-season unless they cut/trade someone with a semi-large contract...and/or throw a bunch of guaranteed money at him (with a big check upfront) like they did rodgers.

 

[C-Lee]

I'll admit I wasn't happy when we made the pick, but wow. This kid is such a beast.

 

[elcid]

Better to get the deal done before the start of next season indeed. If so we got Clark, Gary and both Smiths locked up for 4 years. A solid if not impressive nucleus of players for our front seven.

 

[gbgary]

Better to get the deal done before the start of next season indeed. If so we got Clark, Gary and both Smiths locked up for 4 years. A solid if not impressive nucleus of players for our front seven.

don't expect the smith's to be here all four years...2-3 maybe. they're going to need the space.

 

[elcid]

don't expect the smith's to be here all four years...2-3 maybe. they're going to need the space.

For whom exactly? Only player on the roster that we will have to lock up is Alexander imo, and that will be 3-4 years from now.

Maybe one of the sophomore receivers will warrant a big pay day by then, but only time will tell.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

For whom exactly? Only player on the roster that we will have to lock up is Alexander imo, and that will be 3-4 years from now.

The Packers have to re-sign Clark. Bakhtiari and Linsley are headed for free agency after the 2020 season as well.

 

[GleefulGary]

The Packers have to re-sign Clark. Bakhtiari and Linsley are headed for free agency after the 2020 season as well.

Bakh won't hit FA.

 

[Half Empty]

Don't think anyone said he will. The point is the cap situation.

 

[Dantés]

Kenny Clark is a great success story of the Packers moving off of their typical hard line policy of drafting elite athletes. He was a 35% sparq guy and his RAS was only 7.33.

Another big hit in that regard was Randall Cobb (RAS of 1.37!).

Quinten Rollins (3.18) is an example of where going off-brand totally flopped.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Bakh won't hit FA.

That was my point as I was replying to a poster suggesting Alexander being the only player on the roster the Packers will have to allocate a ton of cap space to within the next few years.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Bakh won't hit FA.

That's far from certain:

There are currently 19 players under contract for 2021 with a cap cost of $126 mil:

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

A couple of observations:

1) Assuming Clark is extended with cap backloaded in the contract via signing bonus before the end of 2019, which is a good bet given the tight cap situation for 2020, he'll be in the 3rd. year of the signing bonus proration. The following is an indication of what that kind of contract might look like:

https://overthecap.com/player/zadarius-smith/3970/

If Clark keeps doing what he's doing, his cap cost in 2021 could easily be $20 mil.

That gets you to 20 players @ $146 mil, a list that is not exactly chock-o-block with Pro Bowlers. As the rest of this draft class gets added to that list, the number of 2021 contracted players goes up to 26 (when including Clark) for nominal additional cap cost, which goes to point 2) below.

2) What happens going into 2021 depends on how well Gutekunst has stacked the 2018 - 2020 drafts with good-to-great cheap players, a point I hammer on for reasons well illustrated in that first link.

Thompson's failure to stack recent drafts gets you a rebuilding this year with the very high cap costs of this year's FAs in their 3rd. years with unattractive dead cap vs. cap savings if one or more don't work out to expectations. Conversely, when all of this year's draftee salary numbers are in, the 2021 total cap cost of the entire 2018 and 2019 draft classes will approximate Z. Smith's $21 mil 2021 cap number. A veteran core is essential, but it is expensive. Without stacking drafts, and the high value propositions therein, you are well short of a full deck.

3) The CBA is up for renogtiation after the 2020 season. Will the players get a larger slice of the pie in the form of a jump in salary cap or will they be happy with the current incremental increases tied in part to TV money while bargaining harder for retirement and medical benefits? Regardless, the negotiations will be protracted and contentious. A large jump in the cap cannot be assumed.

4) Over the course of the next two seasons, injuries, declines and disappointments can completely alter the landscape and throw the team into another rebuilding. Or the drafts get stacked, freeing up cap and allowing expensive players on the borderline of OK value to be released with priority FAs signed.

5) If that's not enough, consider the 2016 opening day roster to see what can happen in 2 years:

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...-bay-packers-final-ish-53-man-roster-for-2016

Only 14 players are left and that number could go down by opening day.

In short, nothing is close to certain with two full seasons and a new CBA in the interim, including Bakhtiari. The one thing closest to a certainty (but not a certainty per se) is Rodgers $23 mil dead cap vs. $10.5 mil cap savings makes him the Packers QB in 2021.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's far from certain:

In short, nothing is certain with two full seasons and a new CBA in the interim, including Bakhtiari. The one thing closest to a certainty (but not a certainty per se) is Rodgers $23 mil dead cap vs. $10.5 mil cap savings makes him the Packers QB in 2021.

I understand what you're saying about the Packers cap situation going forward but I highly doubt the team will allow Bakhtiari to walk away in free agency at age 29.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I understand what you're saying about the Packers cap situation going forward but I highly doubt the team will allow Bakhtiari to walk away in free agency at age 29.

I see what you're saying, but I'm trying to point out the flaw in projecting a decision one would make now, were it necessary, to the one that will be made two years from now.

If I had predicted going into the 2017 season that by 2019 OTAs the entire coaching staff would turn over, Thompson would be gone along with all but one of the top scouts, Perry would be cut after 2 years into his spanking new contract, Nelson, Matthews and Cobb will all have departed, the team will be in rebuilding mode with big spending in free agency, only 14 players would be left from the 2017 roster, and people are talking about Rodgers needing to be reprogrammed into a game manager, you would have said I was nuts.

If Bakhtiari missed 4 games in 2020 as he did in 2017, they plugged in Jenkins or a yet to be drafted OT into that spot, and that player proved to be a revelation, then what? Even if that guy is just "good" and not All Pro, given how cheap he is would make the Bakhtiari value proposition problematic.

 

[Half Empty]

First, I don't think most of us would be reluctant to say our crystal balls were faulty if our tackle situation is that good in a couple of years.

Second,

If I had predicted going into the 2017 season that by 2019 OTAs the entire coaching staff would turn over, Thompson would be gone along with all but one of the top scouts, Perry would be cut after 2 years into his spanking new contract, Nelson, Matthews and Cobb will all have departed, the team will be in rebuilding mode with big spending in free agency, only 14 players would be left from the 2017 roster, and people are talking about Rodgers needing to be reprogrammed into a game manager, you would have said I was nuts.

if we knew the Pack would be taking the advice of this forum, little of that would have been surprising.

 

[HardRightEdge]

First, I don't think most of us would be reluctant to say our crystal balls were faulty if our tackle situation is that good in a couple of years.

Nobody has that kind of visibility including this front office and coaching staff. I hold it out as an illustration, not a prediction.

If we knew the Pack would be taking the advice of this forum, little of that would have been surprising.

Collectively, perhaps, you could find those predictions. But you'd have been hard pressed to find anybody who predicted or advocated for most of them. One thing is for certain, "Fire Capers" was on the top of many posters' wish lists for years running though predictions of his impending doom were were serially frustrated. On the other hand, Jeff Janis' departure was a complete shock.

I would hope the takeaway is that making specific predictions with any confidence two years in advance is a fools errand. About the best you can do is get a sense of context.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I see what you're saying, but I'm trying to point out the flaw in projecting a decision one would make now, were it necessary, to the one that will be made two years from now.

If Bakhtiari missed 4 games in 2020 as he did in 2017, they plugged in Jenkins or a yet to be drafted OT into that spot, and that player proved to be a revelation, then what? Even if that guy is just "good" and not All Pro, given how cheap he is would make the Bakhtiari value proposition problematic.

Once again I understand your point of view and it's definitely true that there's no way of predicting what happens two years down the road.

Taking a look at the situation right now it would be a huge surprise if the Packers decide to not hold on to Bakhtiari after the 2020 season.

Heck, I'm even confident Gutekunst will sign him to an extension next offseason.

 

[elcid]

The Packers have to re-sign Clark. Bakhtiari and Linsley are headed for free agency after the 2020 season as well.

I already mentioned that Clark would have to be resigned. Bakhtiari will be 30 fairly early into the 2021 season, so I am not sure how big of a contract the Packers will be willing to offer him. He could definitely be priced away. Linsley I also see as a guy the FO will be willing to let walk.

Again, I restate: (Apart from Clark) Alexander is the only must lock up at the moment.

Therefore, if both the Smiths provide enough pass rush, I wouldnt be surprised to see them along with Clark and Gary play in the Green and Gold for 4 years.