Packers 2021 cap situation

[Deleted member 6794]

As it seems there are a lot of different opinions on the Packers' cap situation entering next offseason I decided to open a new thread on it which I will try to keep updated once new moves are made over the next few months.

Here's an overlook on where the team stands at this point:

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Some notes on that table:

1) The cap space rolled over from this season already includes Bakhtiari's contract extension.

2) The current cap space allocated towards 37 players for next season assumes the Packers will convert his roster bonus of $11.5 million into a signing bonus before it's due in March. Otherwise that number would increase by $8.625 million.

3) The cap space needed to sign the draft class is based on an estimation from Over The Cap and includes compensatory picks received for losing Martinez, Bulaga and Fackrell last offseason.

As you can see the Packers are effectively close to $25 million over the cap for next season. You can figure out on your own what it takes to even get under the cap for next season, let alone create enough cap space to either re-sign some of our own players or be active in free agency.

 

[PikeBadger]

Has the cap been set at 175M? I heard a couple of months ago that 183M was a more likely number.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Has the cap been set at 175M? I heard a couple of months ago that 183M was a more likely number.

The league and players association agreed on a minimum cap of $175 million for the 2021 season. With the losses caused by COVID-19 spread out over the next four seasons I don't expect it to be higher than that.

But up to this point it hasn't been set for next season.

 

[thisisnate]

Does Bakh's contract tell us anything about what we can expect for future contracts under a COVID-impacted salary cap? Certainly doesn't seem like a deal that was influenced much by expectations of low caps in the coming years.

 

[tynimiller]

Does Bakh's contract tell us anything about what we can expect for future contracts under a COVID-impacted salary cap? Certainly doesn't seem like a deal that was influenced much by expectations of low caps in the coming years.

Your very top tier guys will be unaffected IMO, where it will shine through is the mid-tier players are going to take a hit and non-top tier veterans.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Does Bakh's contract tell us anything about what we can expect for future contracts under a COVID-impacted salary cap? Certainly doesn't seem like a deal that was influenced much by expectations of low caps in the coming years.

It should be pretty obvious that playing the majority of games without fans while the rest with very limited capacity results in a loss of revenue, hence negatively affecting the cap in the next few years.

 

[thisisnate]

It should be pretty obvious that playing the majority of games without fans while the rest with very limited capacity results in a loss of revenue, hence negatively affecting the cap in the next few years.

I think you misunderstood my question.

 

[El Guapo]

...but...but...if we had signed Will Fuller it wouldn't have affected the cap because it hits this season only. Hogwash! I don't remember who said it in the Fuller thread, but this is exactly when it affects next season because of how the cap carries over from year to year.

I really hate the Bakhtiari extension. Yes it should push cap hit into this season, but it was a position that we have adequately covered so far this season. I would have rather spent that money on several players that could improve the team versus a position that, frankly, at this point was holding up even without David in the lineup.

 

[tynimiller]

@El Guapo I can only speculate....but yeah we've managed in the short term without him a bit.

However, I think the organization knows we are going to have to replace Linsley and continue to find a RT as I suspect Wagner is a surefire cut, and Turner could easily be a cost savings cut too. With the importance of LT in this league, it seems they would rather find cures to hard fiscal issues that cause cuts elsewhere.

Not a defense of the decision but attempt at the big picture reasoning possibly.

 

[GleefulGary]

I think you misunderstood my question.

I can’t wait for the next round of “NUH UH!” from Captain.

 

[Krabs]

As it seems there are a lot of different opinions on the Packers' cap situation entering next offseason I decided to open a new thread on it which I will try to keep updated once new moves are made over the next few months.

Nice break down and good talking points. Jones and King are all but gone after the signing of Bak. One could almost tell on Jones when they drafted Dillion. I'm hoping they don't break the bank on a RB. My hope is they can bring Williams back for at least a year. Not as explosive, but a tough runner. We will have to replace King, which shouldn't be too hard with his lack of availability over the years.

I believe Adams contract ends after 2021 and he will be looking for a huge payday. My hope is they can figure out how to keep him in house. I think there are enough expiring contracts that should allow it to happen.

There will be some major cap causalities across the entire NFL and by 2022 the Packers roster will look very different. The Packers have had some horrible drafts and with that said there are a lot of guys they can just let go. Guys I hope are re-signed in 2021:
D. Adams
R. Gary
J. Alexander
D. Savage
E. Jenkins
Wouldn't mind:
K. Keke

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think you misunderstood my question.

That's entirely possibe, happens a lot on an internet forum. I thought you hinted at Bakhtiari's extension being a sign the cap won't drop significantly for next season. My bad.

Guys I hope are re-signed in 2021:
D. Adams
R. Gary
J. Alexander
D. Savage
E. Jenkins
Wouldn't mind:
K. Keke

Just for the record, the Packers aren't allowed to extend the contracts of Gary, Savage and Jenkins before the start of the 2022 league year.

 

[thisisnate]

That's entirely possibe, happens a lot on an internet forum. I thought you hinted at Bakhtiari's extension being a sign the cap won't drop significantly for next season. My bad.

I'm wondering if you think that the fact that his deal looks pretty standard for an LT of his caliber means that the lower cap isn't going to convince players to take smaller deals as I was kind of hoping. Like I thought teams might have some leverage to sign players for a little cheaper given the COVID cap implications.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm wondering if you think that the fact that his deal looks pretty standard for an LT of his caliber means that the lower cap isn't going to convince players to take smaller deals as I was kind of hoping.

Actually I don't consider Bakhtiari's contract to be a standard one for an elite left tackle as in my opinion the team would have overpaid signing him to a deal like that even without the cap dropping for next season.

I don't expect a lot of players to sign for less either before the start or early in free agency in 2021 as long as cap space is available around the league. It might be possible to get some bargains compared to other seasons later in the process though.

 

[swhitset]

I'm wondering if you think that the fact that his deal looks pretty standard for an LT of his caliber means that the lower cap isn't going to convince players to take smaller deals as I was kind of hoping. Like I thought teams might have some leverage to sign players for a little cheaper given the COVID cap implications.

I can’t speak for what Wimm thinks, but I don’t think that will happen with the top tier players. Even with the lower cap, there are several teams that have a lot of cap room. They will most likely be able to compete for the top players keeping their salaries very high. The players in the next tier down however may experience a situation where teams are not willing to pay what they have been getting in the past. Therefore, someone like Aaron Jones will probably get paid, while Jamal Williams might be affordable.

edit: I see Captain answered for himself just ahead of me.

 

[tynimiller]

I can’t speak for what Wimm thinks, but I don’t think that will happen with the top tier players. Even with the lower cap, there are several teams that have a lot of cap room. They will most likely be able to compete for the top players keeping their salaries very high. The players in the next tier down however may experience a situation where teams are not willing to pay what they have been getting in the past. Therefore, someone like Aaron Jones will probably get paid, while Jamal Williams might be affordable.

edit: I see Captain answered for himself just ahead of me.

EXACTLY. Honestly, it is the perfect storm for savvy execs and teams to build that mid-tier talent on a roster or unproven but sound guys like Jamaal.

It truly is the perfect storm for a team to let a guy like Jones walk, sign Williams + Ervin at a FRACTION of the cost and arguably continue on having 3 guys do what 1 used to.

Similar concept could be argued with MLB...the Kirksey and Wagner type deals they got last year if magically were this year would not have hit the same level IMO of pay. Kirksey and Wagner type additions I suspect will be at about 80% of what their counterpart 2020 deals were.

 

[El Guapo]

I would think that Jamal Williams is going to be affordable no matter what...

 

[El Guapo]

@El Guapo I can only speculate....but yeah we've managed in the short term without him a bit.

However, I think the organization knows we are going to have to replace Linsley and continue to find a RT as I suspect Wagner is a surefire cut, and Turner could easily be a cost savings cut too. With the importance of LT in this league, it seems they would rather find cures to hard fiscal issues that cause cuts elsewhere.

Not a defense of the decision but attempt at the big picture reasoning possibly.

My general stance is that we could have addressed both center and right tackle for the same price or less as making Bakhtiari the highest paid lineman in the universe. I love David, but the Packers OL has been extremely resilient this season no matter whom played where. Obviously LT is important but as long as the replacement isn't a turnstile, we would be better off spending our limited funds elsewhere.

 

[tynimiller]

Oh I don't necessarily disagree.

 

[Krabs]

That's entirely possibe, happens a lot on an internet forum. I thought you hinted at Bakhtiari's extension being a sign the cap won't drop significantly for next season. My bad.



Just for the record, the Packers aren't allowed to extend the contracts of Gary, Savage and Jenkins before the start of the 2022 league year.

Right, they can still be signed in 2021, which is what I said. My apologies if I wasn't clear that they had to wait till that season was completed. I'm just hoping they are re-signed is my point.

 

[El Guapo]

Great, then I don't necessarily almost not disagree with you either!

BTW - Captain could have saved himself some time since Tom Silverstein broke down the cap as well:
https://www.packersnews.com/story/s...g-tightrope-deals-bakhtiari-clark/6328022002/

 

[XPack]

We're looking for a brand new O-Line probably with Turner, Lowry, Wagner and Linsey all looking to be cut.

Defensively Josh Jackson could be gone while we retain King.

We need a miracle of a restructuring to retain Jones.

Looking at latest re-signings, perhaps they have agreed with AR12 for a restructuring to help out, similar to what Brady/Pats used to do.

 

[Mondio]

I think Wagner would be the first to go. Turner is proving to be valuable. I thought he was a likely cut after this year as we headed into the season after seeing him last year. But he's proven me wrong. He's solid at least, and very versatile.

 

[sschind]

I don't like the idea of having to replace that much of our O-line

 

[El Guapo]

I don't understand why everyone thinks that Turner and Wagner will go. They are cheap and effective, not great, but certainly not of the Marshall Newhouse ilk. We certainly need to keep drafting OL but not clear the decks.

BTW - if you are Aaron Rodgers, your team just spent a 1st round pick on your successor, and you know that you're time is limited.....would you really restructure to give them a discount just so that they could kick you out the door a year later? No way. Rodgers will keep his money and tell Gute to ask his 1st round pick to take a pay cut.