Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE

[longtimefan]

I think people are upset because with Gary you’re seeing a little bit of flashes here and there and some raw tools to eventually get it done, but you expect that type of showing from a 3rd rounder or later. With the 12th overall pick you’re kind of looking for a guy who can immediately improve the team and compete towards being one of the better players at his position at least in his second season if not his rookie year... It’s not every year you get to pick 12th overall, probably we were hoping we could hit on that player who could be a cornerstone on defense for a long time, Gary looks okay but far from that player right now.

he was drafted for potential and the ability to bring him along slowly..

I know a lot don’t agree with it, and there are tons or articles for and against this pick

it amazes me that posters on a forum believe they are better than the Gm . There are numerous reasons why certain players are signed or not signed that general public have no knowledge of.

this is one of those times

 

[Mondio]

Hes 21, he has the tools to be great. He’s being refined. I’m ok with it

 

[longtimefan]

Yeah a lot of people would have even though it was clear during his rookie off season that adams was going to develop into a star...I remember seeing a clip of rookie adams running a route on casey hayward. It was so clear just from that, that he had ability not a lot of others do

I went back to ck thoughts on Adams

some said he won’t be a number 1, or other players could be just as good.

 

[Dantés]

I think people are upset because with Gary you’re seeing a little bit of flashes here and there and some raw tools to eventually get it done, but you expect that type of showing from a 3rd rounder or later. With the 12th overall pick you’re kind of looking for a guy who can immediately improve the team and compete towards being one of the better players at his position at least in his second season if not his rookie year... It’s not every year you get to pick 12th overall, probably we were hoping we could hit on that player who could be a cornerstone on defense for a long time, Gary looks okay but far from that player right now.

The problem is that these expectations are too high. Just look at the guys they passed over for Gary.

#13-- Christian Wilkins, MIA: Played about 65% of the snaps, had a couple sacks; he was fine, but nothing special as a rookie.
#14-- Chris Lindstrom, ATL: Missed most of the season with an injury; was apparently solid when he returned in December.
#15-- Dwayne Haskins, WAS: Terrible, but kind of irrelevant because he's a QB.
#16-- Brian Burns, CAR: Had a great start to his season, and then really slowed down. Still a good first year overall. Zero sacks and zero QB hits so far in 2020.
#17-- Dexter Lawrence, NYG: Play about 63% of snaps; was good as a rookie, but mostly as a run stuffer, which isn't all that valuable.
#18-- Garrett Bradbury, MIN: Started and sucked as a rookie.
#19-- Jeffery Simmons, TEN: He looked really good down the stretch for TEN; they got him later because he was coming off a torn ACL.
#20-- Noah Fant, DEN: 40/562/3 as a rookie-- not an asset as a blocker.

Are you seeing the point? Very few of these guys made significant impacts immediately. And literally zero of them came anywhere close to being one of the best players at their position in year one. Some of them were more immediately impactful than Gary out of the gate. But we're not talking about huge margins here.

I can only think of one player from that entire draft that meets the standard you're setting for expectations at #12, and that's Nick Bosa who went #2 overall.

Now we don't know if Gary was the best pick or a good pick yet. And we won't know for a while yet. But while you're right that he has not yet proven to be a cornerstone of the defense, he also hasn't proven to be a bust. All he's proven so far is that he's improved quite a bit from year one to year two. We will see how much that holds up with time.

This all ultimately boils down to what we said a year ago-- the guys in the 2019 draft who were both blue chip talents AND developed with high floors (e.g. Bosa, Williams, Bush, Hockenson, Oliver) were gone by their pick. They had some high floor options (e.g. Wilkinson and Lawrence) and some high ceiling options (e.g. Gary, Burns). They chose ceiling and went to work developing one of the most genuine freakshows that the draft has produced in a long time. I'm fine with it.

 

[gopkrs]

I think people are upset because with Gary you’re seeing a little bit of flashes here and there and some raw tools to eventually get it done, but you expect that type of showing from a 3rd rounder or later. With the 12th overall pick you’re kind of looking for a guy who can immediately improve the team and compete towards being one of the better players at his position at least in his second season if not his rookie year... It’s not every year you get to pick 12th overall, probably we were hoping we could hit on that player who could be a cornerstone on defense for a long time, Gary looks okay but far from that player right now.

Hawk was #5. I think Gary will be better.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As to Love never developing into a franchise QB... I don’t see how you can possibly know that. The fact that he is currently behind Boyle, while seemingly disappointing, tells us very little about the future. There are just too many unknown facts... especially this year.

First of all fans need to realize the Packers have been extremely lucky with their quarterbacks over the past nearly 30 years. Most first rounders don't develop into a franchise player at the position. Therefore the odds are stacked against Love in the first place.

In addition him struggling against the only Power 5 conference opponents he faced as well as throwing more interceptions than any other quarterback in the FBS last year while playing against inferior opponents should work as caution.

Just like he was convinced that Gary wouldn't be a good player.

It's a pretty simple calculation here-- if PFF didn't like them, they won't be good.

PFF has nothing to do with it.

As a side note I only mentioned there's reason for concern about Gary's lack of production in college but never posted that I was convinced he wouldn't be able to develop into a good player.

BTW it's still too early to declare him a good one at this point.

Lol, that’s a mighty quick assessment on Love. Glad you’re not our GM. Your the type that would have cut Adams after his 2nd season and would be a perpetual roster churner.

Adams proved as a rookie that he had the talent to make it in the NFL. I definitely wasn't one of the posters to advocate for moving on from him after he struggled in his second year.

Idk brett Favre made a lot of bad decisions and Rodgers learned not to make those bad decisions by watching Favre... perhaps love will learn in a similar manner by watching Rodgers

And I also think that blaming all those interceptions simply on bad decisions is a bit simplistic.

He didn't throw that many picks the year prior...and if he's as smart in general as the packers claim, then he should look a lot more like the guy who made good decisions the year prior... especially after 3/4 years behind a first ballot hall of famer

It's close to impossible to teach decision making. Rodgers already took care of the football in college, he didn't learn that by watching Favre throw too many interceptions.

???

Claypool was drafted at #49 and the Packers' 2nd round pick was #62.

That was a typo, I meant to say the Packers coukd have drafted Claypool in the first round.

The problem is that these expectations are too high. Just look at the guys they passed over for Gary.

#13-- Christian Wilkins, MIA: Played about 65% of the snaps, had a couple sacks; he was fine, but nothing special as a rookie.
#14-- Chris Lindstrom, ATL: Missed most of the season with an injury; was apparently solid when he returned in December.
#15-- Dwayne Haskins, WAS: Terrible, but kind of irrelevant because he's a QB.
#16-- Brian Burns, CAR: Had a great start to his season, and then really slowed down. Still a good first year overall. Zero sacks and zero QB hits so far in 2020.
#17-- Dexter Lawrence, NYG: Play about 63% of snaps; was good as a rookie, but mostly as a run stuffer, which isn't all that valuable.
#18-- Garrett Bradbury, MIN: Started and sucked as a rookie.
#19-- Jeffery Simmons, TEN: He looked really good down the stretch for TEN; they got him later because he was coming off a torn ACL.
#20-- Noah Fant, DEN: 40/562/3 as a rookie-- not an asset as a blocker.

Are you seeing the point? Very few of these guys made significant impacts immediately. And literally zero of them came anywhere close to being one of the best players at their position in year one. Some of them were more immediately impactful than Gary out of the gate. But we're not talking about huge margins here.

The point being that all of the players you mentioned received significantly more playing time than Gary during their rookie seasons because their teams didn't spend those first picks on a position which they addressed with starters in free agency only a month earlier.

 

[PikeBadger]

First of all fans need to realize the Packers have been extremely lucky with their quarterbacks over the past nearly 30 years. Most first rounders don't develop into a franchise player at the position. Therefore the odds are stacked against Love in the first place.
.

I think you are confusing “luck” with good scouting and sound analysis of talent and draft value. I also think you’re paying too close attention to talking head armchair GM’s who have a public platform who have been proclaimed “draft experts”. These so-called draft experts are not professional talent scouts. They have no accountability for what spews out of there mouths and keyboards.
Luck is where opportunity meets sound preparation and disciplined decision making when it comes to the draft.
I know people think we were lucky to get Rodgers at pick 24 in 2005. There is a direct correlation between poorly managed franchises and those that perpetually pick early in every round of just about every draft. I think fans would be better informed by putting more stock in successful franchises roster decisions than what the so-called experts say.
I find it interesting that Mike Mayock went from “expert” to GM as he is one guy that seemed to have the pulse of Ted Thompson when no one else did. I’d like to know more about his story and think he merits watching in the future.

 

[Dantés]

PFF has nothing to do with it.

BTW it's still too early to declare him a good one at this point.

The point being that all of the players you mentioned received significantly more playing time than Gary during their rookie seasons because their teams didn't spend those first picks on a position which they addressed with starters in free agency only a month earlier.

Your brand is far too well established for anyone to believe that.

Speaking of brand, here's a classic Captain interchange:

Me: "Now we don't know if Gary was the best pick or a good pick yet. And we won't know for a while yet. But while you're right that he has not yet proven to be a cornerstone of the defense, he also hasn't proven to be a bust. All he's proven so far is that he's improved quite a bit from year one to year two. We will see how much that holds up with time."

Captain: "BTW it's still too early to declare him a good one at this point."

Thanks for that!

And like I said, some of those players were more impactful than Gary in their rookie seasons. None of them were incredibly impactful. Most of them were replacement level or worse as rookies. Hence, setting a standard for the #12 pick that they need to come in, make a big impact, and push towards being one of the best at their position in year 1 is unrealistic. If Gary performs this season like he has in weeks 1 and 2, literally no one will (or at least should) care that Christian Wilkins played 40% more snaps in 2019.

 

[Jerellh528]

The problem is that these expectations are too high. Just look at the guys they passed over for Gary.

#13-- Christian Wilkins, MIA: Played about 65% of the snaps, had a couple sacks; he was fine, but nothing special as a rookie.
#14-- Chris Lindstrom, ATL: Missed most of the season with an injury; was apparently solid when he returned in December.
#15-- Dwayne Haskins, WAS: Terrible, but kind of irrelevant because he's a QB.
#16-- Brian Burns, CAR: Had a great start to his season, and then really slowed down. Still a good first year overall. Zero sacks and zero QB hits so far in 2020.
#17-- Dexter Lawrence, NYG: Play about 63% of snaps; was good as a rookie, but mostly as a run stuffer, which isn't all that valuable.
#18-- Garrett Bradbury, MIN: Started and sucked as a rookie.
#19-- Jeffery Simmons, TEN: He looked really good down the stretch for TEN; they got him later because he was coming off a torn ACL.
#20-- Noah Fant, DEN: 40/562/3 as a rookie-- not an asset as a blocker.

Are you seeing the point? Very few of these guys made significant impacts immediately. And literally zero of them came anywhere close to being one of the best players at their position in year one. Some of them were more immediately impactful than Gary out of the gate. But we're not talking about huge margins here.

I can only think of one player from that entire draft that meets the standard you're setting for expectations at #12, and that's Nick Bosa who went #2 overall.

Now we don't know if Gary was the best pick or a good pick yet. And we won't know for a while yet. But while you're right that he has not yet proven to be a cornerstone of the defense, he also hasn't proven to be a bust. All he's proven so far is that he's improved quite a bit from year one to year two. We will see how much that holds up with time.

This all ultimately boils down to what we said a year ago-- the guys in the 2019 draft who were both blue chip talents AND developed with high floors (e.g. Bosa, Williams, Bush, Hockenson, Oliver) were gone by their pick. They had some high floor options (e.g. Wilkinson and Lawrence) and some high ceiling options (e.g. Gary, Burns). They chose ceiling and went to work developing one of the most genuine freakshows that the draft has produced in a long time. I'm fine with it.

it was an underwhelming 1st round overall for sure, especially when you compare to the year before you have guys like Jaire Alexander, Leighton vander esch, tremaine Edmunds, Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Marcus Davenport all taken in that 11-19 range

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think you are confusing “luck” with good scouting and sound analysis of talent and draft value. I also think you’re paying too close attention to talking head armchair GM’s who have a public platform who have been proclaimed “draft experts”. These so-called draft experts are not professional talent scouts. They have no accountability for what spews out of there mouths and keyboards.
Luck is where opportunity meets sound preparation and disciplined decision making when it comes to the draft.
I know people think we were lucky to get Rodgers at pick 24 in 2005. There is a direct correlation between poorly managed franchises and those that perpetually pick early in every round of just about every draft. I think fans would be better informed by putting more stock in successful franchises roster decisions than what the so-called experts say.
I find it interesting that Mike Mayock went from “expert” to GM as he is one guy that seemed to have the pulse of Ted Thompson when no one else did. I’d like to know more about his story and think he merits watching in the future.

Oh come on, there's no doubt the Packers have been lucky to have HOFers starting at quarterback for the past 30 years. That's not a knock on Thompson by any means.

Just follow your own advice of taking a look at successful franchises and start with the Patriots dynasty over the past 20 years. Even with all of their superior scouting and evaluation of draft talent they passed on selecting Brady six times before pulling the trigger.

Your brand is far too well established for anyone to believe that.

I have stated my reasons for why I believe Love won't develop into a franchise player and that PFF has nothing to do with it.

I don't appreciate you telling me I lied about it.

Speaking of brand, here's a classic Captain interchange:

Me: "Now we don't know if Gary was the best pick or a good pick yet. And we won't know for a while yet. But while you're right that he has not yet proven to be a cornerstone of the defense, he also hasn't proven to be a bust. All he's proven so far is that he's improved quite a bit from year one to year two. We will see how much that holds up with time."

Captain: "BTW it's still too early to declare him a good one at this point."

Thanks for that!

You pretty much implied that you believe Gary will develop into a good player. Like always, you don't post it as a definite opinion for there to not be a possibility of being proven wrong at some point though.

If Gary performs this season like he has in weeks 1 and 2, literally no one will (or at least should) care that Christian Wilkins played 40% more snaps in 2019.

If Wilkins ends up with more than 10 sacks at the end of the season no one will care how Gary played in weeks 1 and 2. What's the point of speculating about such scenarios though???

The fact remains that a player at another position drafted at #12 would have been able to make a larger impact than Gary last season.

 

[PikeBadger]

Oh come on, there's no doubt the Packers have been lucky to have HOFers starting at quarterback for the past 30 years. That's not a knock on Thompson by any means.

Just follow your own advice of taking a look at successful franchises and start with the Patriots dynasty over the past 20 years. Even with all of their superior scouting and evaluation of draft talent they passed on selecting Brady six times before pulling the trigger.

With both of their hall of fame QB’s it had nothing to do with luck. We’ve had excellent coaches in place that developed both Favre and Rodgers.

New England - Imo, Belichick has only had average scouts in place when it comes to successful identification of college talent. Where Belichick blows everyone away is in the accumulation and manipulation of draft picks. He’s an absolute genius with no peers in sight with this skill set. He is also without peers in his vision of how all the pieces fit together and his ability to bring in the correct people to fill in the gaps. All the while maintaining a coaching staff that adapts and adjusts to all these changes in personnel. Belichick imo is an organizational genius that he can do all this and never get into cap hell while doing it.

Brady - In retrospect, I think his draft status (pick #199) was probably a result of the Gil Brandt? philosophy of scientific analysis of draft prospects that was and possibly still is a popular way of ranking draft prospects. I don’t remember when the draft combine started but the 90’s seemed to be (in my memory) when all these sparq formulas came into vogue.
I remember seeing Brady play only a few times in college and thinking to myself, this is maybe the best Big 10 QB I’ve ever seen outside of maybe Tony Eason. I felt he was better than Drew Brees clearly. I was stunned by his performance against Alabama in one of the bowl games. He was a brilliant player and excellent prospect that at least, surely passed the eye test.
I make no claims to being a scout, just know what I see. Felt the same way about Randy Moss, Orlando Pace, Charles Woodson and Ndomiinkun Suh. Some guys you just know you’re seeing something very different.

edit: We as fans WERE lucky that so many GM’s passed on Rodgers. Thompson cleared his first ever draft pick through Bob Harlan and I bet Ted was both nervous and excited during that quick conversation and reached for his water bottle pacifier.

 

[Dantés]

I have stated my reasons for why I believe Love won't develop into a franchise player and that PFF has nothing to do with it.

I don't appreciate you telling me I lied about it.

You pretty much implied that you believe Gary will develop into a good player. Like always, you don't post it as a definite opinion for there to not be a possibility of being proven wrong at some point though.

If Wilkins ends up with more than 10 sacks at the end of the season no one will care how Gary played in weeks 1 and 2. What's the point of speculating about such scenarios though???

The fact remains that a player at another position drafted at #12 would have been able to make a larger impact than Gary last season.

Those two statements back to back are pretty ironic.

I'm sure you don't appreciate it. Unfortunately for you, what you do/don't appreciate isn't really a big motivator for me. You've spent literal years citing PFF as though it's the final word, and parroting their conclusions as the font of your opinions. So when you say now that they have nothing to do with your opinion of a Packer player who you both happen not to like, you're going to have a hard time convincing anyone that you're telling the truth.

Here's the thing, and this might really blow your mind, but stay with me: I am comfortable saying that I don't know things. I feel no compulsion to pretend that I know things before I actually feel confident. I don't see this forum as a race to be right as far ahead of time as possible.

Hence, I said when Gary came out that I liked him at Michigan and I liked his athletic profile over all, but he needed to develop and time would tell. And I've said this season that as far as two games can tell us anything, it seems he's made some strides.

I'm not actually preoccupied with people being able to prove me wrong or right in the future. I've already said many times that I liked the Gary pick. So if he busts, you and whoever else can tell me all day long that I was incorrect to like it. I am sure I'll get over it somehow.

 

[GleefulGary]

Boy. Let me tell ya, after no pre-season, no real training camp, and two games, I can tell you that Jordan Love bum is a bust. Wasted pick.


Oh what's that? You think Rashan Gary is good because he's played so well this year?! Well hold on to your horses, it is WAAAAY too early to say that he's a good player. Give it a little more time, okay?

























Lol.

 

[Dantés]

Boy. Let me tell ya, after no pre-season, no real training camp, and two games, I can tell you that Jordan Love bum is a bust. Wasted pick.


Oh what's that? You think Rashan Gary is good because he's played so well this year?! Well hold on to your horses, it is WAAAAY too early to say that he's a good player. Give it a little more time, okay?

























Lol.

If PFF did not like a guy coming out of college, then you only need circumstantial evidence to conclude he's a bust. He doesn't even need to play really.

If PFF did not like a guy coming out of college and he does play, then he needs to string together at least two full seasons of top notch performance before you can consider the possibility that he's not a bust.

Them's the rules.

 

[GleefulGary]

The fact remains that a player at another position drafted at #12 would have been able to make a larger impact than Gary last season.

1) Not a fact. That's an opinion, mate.

2) Largely irrelevant, even if true. They aren't drafted for what they'll do their rookie year, even a top 15 pick.

 

[longtimefan]

1) Not a fact. That's an opinion, mate.

2) Largely irrelevant, even if true. They aren't drafted for what they'll do their rookie year, even a top 15 pick.

I agree

And ill re post this

he was drafted for potential and the ability to bring him along slowly..
I know a lot don’t agree with it, and there are tons of articles for and against this pick

it amazes me that posters on a forum believe they are better than the Gm . There are numerous reasons why certain players are drafted/signed or not drafted/not signed.. This is one of those times

 

[Mondio]

I think any team relying on a draft pick to push them over the edge in year 1 is mostly likely a failing team. These guys need work. Some have more productive years than others, but as a general rule, none of them are better year 1 than they are in year 3 by a long shot. Sure injury might play a role, but then that's different. Especially guys just turning 21 years old. Aren't physically or mentally mature yet. The draft is always for the future, if a GM isn't viewing it that way, they likely aren't a GM for very long.

 

[PikeBadger]

he was drafted for potential and the ability to bring him along slowly..

I know a lot don’t agree with it, and there are tons or articles for and against this pick

it amazes me that posters on a forum believe they are better than the Gm . There are numerous reasons why certain players are signed or not signed that general public have no knowledge of.

this is one of those times

I’ve never figured that out either. When I see us draft a guy, I almost always ask myself, what do they know that I haven’t heard or seen? The answer of course is, a whole lot.

 

[RRyder]

I’ve never figured that out either. When I see us draft a guy, I almost always ask myself, what do they know that I haven’t heard or seen? The answer of course is, a whole lot.

Ok. So what are people supposed to talk about on this forum if not discuss what draft picks we like or hate, FA signings we like or hate, players leaving in free agency and whether we agree or not, why didn't they trade for a player and whether the cost was worth it or how player development/regression is going to go?

I mean all those things are apparently off limits for discussion according to your guys line of logic because we aren't the GM or coach so what are the acceptable topics to debate? Let's iron this out

 

[longtimefan]

Ok. So what are people supposed to talk about on this forum if not discuss what draft picks we like or hate, FA signings we like or hate, players leaving in free agency and whether we agree or not, why didn't they trade for a player and whether the cost was worth it or how player development/regression is going to go?

I mean all those things are apparently off limits for discussion according to your guys line of logic because we aren't the GM or coach so what are the acceptable topics to debate? Let's iron this out

Dont be silly.

But there are a handful here that be have like they know more than the packers.

Thats all that statement meant

 

[thequick12]

It's close to impossible to teach decision making. Rodgers already took care of the football in college, he didn't learn that by watching Favre throw too many interceptions.

That's an absolutely ridiculous statement... decision making is taught or learned in all aspects of life, certainly not limited to but definitely including at the quarterback position.

Love was 8 and 6 then 32 and 6 then 20 and 17. So 60 and 29 overall, was the 17 an outlier or the 6. I think by watching what the guy can do physically and believing the Packers front office when they say he's very smart, he has a great situation to develop into number 3

 

[HardRightEdge]

He has not mastered the playbook. On one play he was looking across the line from left edge to P. Smith on the right edge with P. signaling what he should do on the pass rush. Evidently it was loop inside.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Dont be silly.

But there are a handful here that be have like they know more than the packers.

Thats all that statement meant

We don't know what the Packers think about Gary today.

We know what they thought before 21 money games plus 4 preseason games. We have 21 games to assess that pick that Packers did not at the time of the draft. That's quite an edge for us. If the Packers knew then what we have seen since, would they have drafted him at that spot? Would you?

 

[Dantés]

Dont be silly.

But there are a handful here that be have like they know more than the packers.

Thats all that statement meant

This.

Everyone who follows the draft (and many who don't) have opinions on draft picks. But the take's that are annoying are the ones that are certain that "guy X" who I loved/hated will definitely be a bust/HOF'er. And those are usually followed with a series of "told you so" posts at the earliest and oftenest opportunity.

 

[longtimefan]

We don't know what the Packers think about Gary today.

We know what they thought before 21 money games plus 4 preseason games. We have 21 games to assess that pick that Packers did not at the time of the draft. That's quite an edge for us. If the Packers knew then what we have seen since, would they have drafted him at that spot? Would you?

Yes they would have

Its on record from coaches ( I posted article last Year) its a project