Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE

[GleefulGary]

You're right, I haven't watched Gary, or any other Packers draft pick from this year for that matter, play.

To be honest even if I did I don't have the knowledge to make an educated guess on how his performance at Michigan would translate to the NFL.

I have read a lot of different scouting reports about Gary though and the lack of production is brought up by other draft pundits aside of PFF as well.

BTW it's absolutely fine if you don't like their analytical approach but in my opinion it's kind of strange that a poster on a forum considers himself smarter than a product that is used by all NFL teams by now.

FWIW here's what they had to say about Jackson's press coverage before last year's draft:

Jackson lined up almost exclusively at left outside corner at Iowa last season, playing a fair amount of press coverage in doing so.

I don't consider that anything to get worked up about although he struggled in his first season in the league.

There is a vast difference between NFL PFF and college PFF.

You haven't watched anything on Gary. Anybody can quote stats. Based on stats, and PFF, Jaylon Ferguson is a top tier edge. But that's why people watch tape. Tape always wins.

 

[gbgary]

I had Gary as my pick at #12, which was not popular around here, until the Packers signed Z. Smith. With the Z. Smith signing I thought Gary would be a redundancy. So, they're going longer/lighter/athletic on the nickel D-Line. No argument here. There are two key things to know about Gary:

1) Rare speed-to-power.

2) 34 1/8" arms, 9 5/8" hands: He has to learn to use them better. His tendency is to slap/chop at the OT's arms. In this game, rushing from the edge, you have to be able to extend arms, punch and push off the OT keeping him off your body.

zadarious is for the short term. will hit the ground running. gary is the long term. he'll get plenty of pt this season though imo. the olb coach is fawning over him too.

 

[HardRightEdge]

zadarious is for the short term. will hit the ground running. gary is the long term. he'll get plenty of pt this season though imo. the olb coach is fawning over him too.

Z. Smith is at least a 3 year player given his contract. No first round rookie can be counted on past a 5th. year option. If you want to call 3 years short term and 5 years long term, then OK. I wouldn't call it that.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

There is a vast difference between NFL PFF and college PFF.

You haven't watched anything on Gary. Anybody can quote stats. Based on stats, and PFF, Jaylon Ferguson is a top tier edge. But that's why people watch tape. Tape always wins.

NFL teams use PFF to analyze college players as well.

There's no doubt that watching tape is more important than solely taking a look at the stat sheet. As I've mentioned on several occasions it's smart to trust respected draft pundits over a random person on a forum though.

 

[GleefulGary]

Jokes on you.

I AM a respected draft analyst.

Naw I'm kidding. I'm also a blowhard. Please don't take me seriously. I'm just here for the laughs.

On a serious note, people like Andy Herman, Ross Uglem, they do an alright job and it's fun to read their stuff, but if I took the time to watch/record film, I would blow them out of the water. Especially Uglem. He's a hack.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Jokes on you.

I AM a respected draft analyst.

Naw I'm kidding. I'm also a blowhard. Please don't take me seriously. I'm just here for the laughs.

On a serious note, people like Andy Herman, Ross Uglem, they do an alright job and it's fun to read their stuff, but if I took the time to watch/record film, I would blow them out of the water. Especially Uglem. He's a hack.

Well, mostly I don't read what either Herman or Uglem write so I'm fine with trusting you more than either of them

 

[gbgary]

Z. Smith is at least a 3 year player given his contract. No first round rookie can be counted on past a 5th. year option. If you want to call 3 years short term and 5 years long term, then OK. I wouldn't call it that.

i'd say 2 years would be his minimum as they could let him go after 2020 and gain $10.7m of cap room if needed (similar thing for preston smith). i think they're hoping to get 10 years out gary. if he turns out to be a star maybe 15 (but the Packers don't have that kind of luck lol).

 

[GleefulGary]

i'd say 2 years would be his minimum as they could let him go after 2020 and gain $10.7m of cap room if needed (similar thing for preston smith). i think they're hoping to get 10 years out gary. if he turns out to be a star maybe 15 (but the Packers don't have that kind of luck lol).

Pretty uncommon for a DL to be a star for 10 years let alone 15. I'm trying to think of 15 year guys off the top of my head...Julius Peppers? Reggie White? John Randle played for a long time. HOF type players for sure.

 

[gbgary]

Pretty uncommon for a DL to be a star for 10 years let alone 15. I'm trying to think of 15 year guys off the top of my head...Julius Peppers? Reggie White? John Randle played for a long time. HOF type players for sure.

15 would be the extreme obviously. he's an olb/edge. 10 is pretty common. the much maligned clay matthews is headed into his 11th with 94.5 career sacks to his credit. who wouldn't take that from gary?

 

[gopkrs]

I'm thinking we are all hopeful that the Smith Bros. will stick.

 

[HardRightEdge]

i'd say 2 years would be his minimum as they could let him go after 2020 and gain $10.7m of cap room if needed (similar thing for preston smith). i think they're hoping to get 10 years out gary. if he turns out to be a star maybe 15 (but the Packers don't have that kind of luck lol).

If we're talking about cutting Z. Smith in March 2021 before that $5 mil roster bonus comes due at age 28, before having the opportunity to find a replacement in that draft, he'll be a disappointment, not a short term player. If the Packers were not projecting 3 good years out of him, they would not have signed him to this contract.

As for Gary, you cannot count on any first round player past year 5. And frankly, if you force a guy to play on the 5th. year option you are either (1) to some degree disappointed with his performance putting him in "prove it" mode or (2) he doesn't like the extension offer, is willing to roll the dice on not getting injured before hitting free agency, and will be playing in year 5 as an unhappy lame duck.

With all the moving parts involved in what a roster might look like after 2 full seasons, with performance decline or ascension, injuries and cap issues, who else ya got and who else you don't, you cannot assume anybody is short term or long term. Z. Smith could be the Pro Bowler while Gary could be a bust looking for the ominous "3rd. year jump".

Projections are just that. Realities have a habit of upending them when the time comes.

 

[GleefulGary]

15 would be the extreme obviously. he's an olb/edge. 10 is pretty common. the much maligned clay matthews is headed into his 11th with 94.5 career sacks to his credit. who wouldn't take that from gary?

Playing for 10 years happens. Being a star for 10 years? Clay Matthews can't say that.

I would be overjoyed if Gary had a career like Matthews btw.

 

[gbgary]

If we're talking about cutting Z. Smith in March 2021 before that $5 mil roster bonus comes due at age 28, before having the opportunity to find a replacement in that draft, he'll be a disappointment, not a short term player. If the Packers were not projecting 3 good years out of him, they would not have signed him to this contract.

As for Gary, you cannot count on any first round player past year 5. And frankly, if you force a guy to play on the 5th. year option you are either (1) to some degree disappointed with his performance putting him in "prove it" mode or (2) he doesn't like the extension offer, is willing to roll the dice on not getting injured before hitting free agency, and will be playing in year 5 as an unhappy lame duck.

With all the moving parts involved in what a roster might look like after 2 full seasons, with performance decline or ascension, injuries and cap issues, who else ya got and who else you don't, you cannot assume anybody is short term or long term. Z. Smith could be the Pro Bowler while Gary could be a bust looking for the ominous "3rd. year jump".

Projections are just that. Realities have a habit of upending them when the time comes.

i'm just saying if they wanted to move on after two, for whatever reason (which i'd say cap relief being the #1 reason and gary being ready to start being 2nd), they could. of course everyone wants them to be great. we all know the cap is going to tight going forward.
there'd be no reason to move on from the smiths without adequate replacements. that's what the draft is all about. the Packers needed immediate improvement on the edges and got it, and drafted gary in the hopes he'll be around for the long term. i bet edge/olb continues to be a priority in upcoming drafts as well. yes it's all a crap shoot but it's not like it's being done blind. they've done their due diligence and hope the coaching makes up the difference.

 

[gbgary]

https://twitter.com/BenFennell_NFL/status/1171406656724504580

 

[bigbubbatd]

https://twitter.com/BenFennell_NFL/status/1171406656724504580

It is easy to see his strength and speed. Obviously he needs polish but he has the tools. He just destroyed that olineman. You dont see 300 lbs men go flying back like that very often

 

[Mondio]

It is easy to see his strength and speed. Obviously he needs polish but he has the tools. He just destroyed that olineman. You dont see 300 lbs men go flying back like that very often

and left rolling around. He got Taylor'd

 

[GleefulGary]

That was Kyle Long, btw. Oft injured, but pretty good. Gary made him look like a play toy.

The physical attributes are there, the hand usage and pass rush isn't. I'm hopeful it will come.

 

[greengold]

I follow drafts like crazy. When Gary’s name was called I couldn’t believe it. Not because of his play, but because of the pundit takes. My mistake. I never considered him a possibility due to what I had read, resulting in not knowing a thing about him.

After we drafted him, I tore into my kind of research. Looked up every article, reviewed every Michigan game he played in, a few times. What I came away with is he’s a talented, misunderstood guy, with an insane love & knowledge of the game, and supreme athleticism.

Gary could not be in a better position to develop than with Z & Preston being mentors to show him the way.

I’m comfortable saying 80% of opponent plays during his Michigan career we’re ran to the opposite side of Gary. That has to have a bearing on his reduced stat figures pre draft.

He does need work developing more moves, but he is a freakish talent. He’s also a great guy, dyslexic, with a true fire to learn, contribute, and be his best. Lives & breathes football.

I think we will start seeing more contributions from him by midseason. He being Gutes’ #1 player they wanted in draft should carry some weight with Packers fans.

Once he starts developing a bit more and gets unleashed, I think he’s going to be really special here in Green Bay.

 

[greengold]

and left rolling around. He got Taylor'd

Yeah. Wow. I’m jacked to see him develop and let it fly for the Packers. Wonder what we see 3 years from now with him? I’m pretty confident it’s going to be really good.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm telling you I still am not a fan of the pick, but I'm a huge fan of him if that makes sense. Dude has the raw skill....if Pettine and co can polish it dude has the ability to be like Kenny Clark level draft success and then some.

 

[PackAttack12]

I'm telling you I still am not a fan of the pick, but I'm a huge fan of him if that makes sense. Dude has the raw skill....if Pettine and co can polish it dude has the ability to be like Kenny Clark level draft success and then some.

Well no...actually it doesn't make sense.

 

[tynimiller]

Well no...actually it doesn't make sense.

What I mean is this. At the time of the draft I literally was clueless on who he was, and felt we'd made a HUGE reach for someone no one saw that early. I had other players I'd rather see us go after and still to this day feel we didn't need to get him at that pick. The dislike for the pick.

However, like others I watched and read as much about him as I could. Learned the football player and somewhat the man he is or is becoming and how his coachs' and teammates talk about him. The fan of the man he is.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What I mean is this. At the time of the draft I literally was clueless on who he was, and felt we'd made a HUGE reach for someone no one saw that early.................The fan of the man he is.

I applaud you for being man enough to admit it.

But in all seriousness, we see this every year, no matter who the Packers pick first, there are going to be unhappy posters, because the Packers didn't choose the guy they thought they should pick.

Gary was a surprise pick for me, but given what was on the board at the time, I was fine with it. Like you, the more I looked at him and read, I started really liking the pick.

Personally, I think its FAR too early to declare him a bust or a great pick, but I am ready to read every post, after every game declaring him to be either.

 

[tynimiller]

Oh shoot, we're two years out from IMO truly slapping a true grade or label of bust or boom on him. I mean the guy has only seen true in season action 6 times. I don't care if he had 6 sacks, far too early to grade him out...be more excited but still too early.

 

[AmishMafia]

I'm telling you I still am not a fan of the pick, but I'm a huge fan of him if that makes sense. Dude has the raw skill....if Pettine and co can polish it dude has the ability to be like Kenny Clark level draft success and then some.

Makes complete sense to me, i am the same. Dont like the pick for him as a player, but he seems like a good quality human. Therefore i will root for him.

But again, 9.5 sacks in 3 years is poor. When you are that much more talented than your opponent, you should do better. Even if double teamed most plays. Keep in mind that they arent playing Wisconsin or Ohio every game. Bunch of games with Cincinnati, Rutgers, hawaii, etc. And in 800 snaps there has to be a bunch of broken plays, missed blocking assignments, and other whiffs by the offense that leads to an easy sack.

And dont tell me that wasnt his role to get sacks it was to occupy blockers. I doubt the DC told him not to take a sack if you can get one. And also dubious is the notion a DC would have a great pass rusher and use him as a decoy to help other players.

I mean look at Kahlil Mack. He is an extraordinary player that teams run away from and he gets double teamed. Yet he gets his sacks.