Packers 1st round selection, #12 overall: Rashan Gary, DE

[GleefulGary]

well said. I am of similar thought but leaning more pessimistically. I just dont understand folks who ignore (aka dont care) about the lack of college production and cant even bring themselves to admit its a red flag.

Who has said they didn't care about Gary's lack of college production?

And by lack of production, I strictly mean numbers. Because boy let me tell ya, he was productive in the game of football and showed up on tape. He just didn't get a lot of sacks.

 

[Mondio]

well said. I am of similar thought but leaning more pessimistically. I just dont understand folks who ignore (aka dont care) about the lack of college production and cant even bring themselves to admit its a red flag.

This is where never watching MI football comes in handy I have no idea what he did in college

 

[gbgary]

Mack had 4 sacks his rookie season. I think its way too early in Gary's career to try and hold him up to Mack's standards. As a matter of fact, probably not fare to try and compare anyone to Mack, maybe even Mack himself as his curve begins to swing downward.

and mack wasn't a linebacker.

 

[Dantés]

well said. I am of similar thought but leaning more pessimistically. I just dont understand folks who ignore (aka dont care) about the lack of college production and cant even bring themselves to admit its a red flag.

Yeah, I definitely get that. I think it's a pretty typical pattern that fans gloss the warts of their teams' first round picks during the honeymoon phase. I commend you for sticking to your opinions. I'm sure we both hope you're wrong.

 

[XPack]

Who has said they didn't care about Gary's lack of college production?

And by lack of production, I strictly mean numbers. Because boy let me tell ya, he was productive in the game of football and showed up on tape. He just didn't get a lot of sacks.

Try explaining that when discussing a pay raise with your boss

The whole "productive without stats" usually is a fallacy. There are intangibles to every player but they should be over and above the tangibles. If not sacks, then pressures or tackles...there will be some stats to support that statement. "Go watch tape" is a subjective argument.

 

[GleefulGary]

Try explaining that when discussing a pay raise with your boss

The whole "productive without stats" usually is a fallacy. There are intangibles to every player but they should be over and above the tangibles. If not sacks, then pressures or tackles...there will be some stats to support that statement. "Go watch tape" is a subjective argument.

Okay. I'm a farmer. My role on the farm is more of a crop management type. Now I can run a combine, I can fix a combine, but that's not my main role, somebody else does that. My job is more difficult to fill, so that's where I go. It makes the whole operation run better. Ie, if I ran the combine but had somebody else doing my main job who isn't as qualified, the whole operation would suffer.

Knowing that, would it be fair to penalize or criticize me on my lack of combine operating? My job may not be as visible to the common person, but it's more important and makes the whole thing run well. Don Brown, Michigan's DC, would argue the same thing for Gary. Brown had multiple very good players on his defense, yet he said multiple times that Gary was what made it successful, and that he was productive.

I'll take his word, over a stat page, thank you very much.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

This may have been said already, but I feel it's worth repeating. His lack of production is partly why he wasn't a top 10 draft pick - we can hate it all we want, but we wouldn't have him on the team if he was a sack monster with unreal physical attributes. That plus his shoulder injury. It's up to Pettine and the LB coach to mould him into the player they want him to be now. If they can't, considering his physical tools, then it's a busted pick. This year I think Pettine wants to figure out his role and I think next year we see more production.

 

[HardRightEdge]

While it may be only 6 snaps, he already looks way better than in the early preseason games where he'd get balled up in traffic on his stunts. He's evidently coachable and there's already signs he's getting from mechanical to fluid. It ain't where you've been; its where you are going. Gary's speed-to-power equation is evident, and that is the basis for drafting him, a guy I had as my first choice at #12 among likely candidates until the Smith signings, thinking he'd be a luxury pick when other needs needed to be addressed.

Now we've had a glimpse of the Gary-Smith-Clark-Smith nickel front. That's going to be a handful on passing downs or when opponents are playing catch up and have to go to the air. Greene and the safeties look pretty good as complimentary blitzers. I look forward to seeing more of this.

Cousins is a statue compared to Trubisky. There's less need to spy for the scramble run. I look forward to seeing more of that 4 man front, dropping 6 or 7, with less concern about defending the scramble with Cousins. Now that some of this Packer defense is on tape, we'll see if the Vikings can make the adjustments the Bears couldn't. 11 QB hits on a mobile QB like Trubisky is a very good start to this season.

Cousins threw the ball 10 times in Week 1. He was hit 3 times including a strip sack fumble that was reversed to an incompletion and another strip sack that MIN recovered. He recoverd his own fumbled snap on a 2nd. and 24. He had no scramble runs. His 6 runs were that fumbled snap, 3 sneaks and 2 kneel-downs at the end of he game.

On 11 pass plays, something bad happened on 4 of them, including two Cousins fumbles and another almost fumble in a game that got out of hand early without Cousins in pressure passing situations. I like these odds with this Packer front against that O-Line and that QB. Get 'em to a passing down situation, release the hounds, and make that stutue of a QB have to beat you under assault. They might have to keep the TE in or pull Cook off the field for a blocking back.

Don't turn the ball over, then run the picket fence at 'em but don't get caught watching the paint dry. That'll do.

 

[mradtke66]

Im not saying he is a bust. The fact is he only got 9.5 sacks in 3 years despite being far more athletically gifted than the guys he played against. Dont you see the red flag? There are lots of excuses but 1 sack every 145 snaps is still low production.

His overall rate is pretty low. But by year, it's less scary.

2016: Freshman year. Single sack

2017: 5.5 sacks. Ascending player. Yay.

2018: Should injury, 3.5 sacks.

9/3 = bad.

9/2 = significantly less bad.

 

[GleefulGary]

While it may be only 6 snaps, he already looks way better than in the early preseason games where he'd get balled up in traffic on his stunts. He's evidently coachable and there's already signs he's getting from mechanical to fluid. It ain't where you've been; its where you are going. The speed-to-power equation is evident, and that is the basis for drafting Gary, a guy I had as my first choice #12 among likely candidates until the Smith signings, thinking he'd be a luxury pick when other needs needed to be addressed.

Now we've had a glimpse of the Gary-Smith-Clark-Smith nickel front. That's going to be a handful on passing downs or when opponents are playing catch up and have to go to the air. Greene and the safeties look pretty good as complimentary blitzers. I look forward to seeing more of this.

Cousins is a statue compared to Trubisky. There's less need to spy for the scramble run. I look forward to seeing more of that 4 man front, dropping 6 or 7, with less concern about defending the scramble with Cousins. Now that some of this Packer defense is on tape, we'll see if the Vikings can make the adjustments the Bears couldn't. 11 QB hits on a mobile QB like Trubisky is a very good start to this season.

Cousins threw the ball 10 times in Week 1. He was hit 3 times including a strip sack fumble that was reversed to an incompletion and another strip sack that MIN recovered. He recoverd his own fumbled snap on a 2nd. and 24. He had no scramble runs. His 6 runs were that fumbled snap, 3 sneaks and 2 kneel-downs at the end of he game.

On 11 pass plays, something bad happened on 4 of them, including two Cousins fumbles and another almost fumble in a game that got out of hand early without pressure passing situations. I like these odds with this Packer front against that O-Line and that QB. Get 'em to a passing down situation, release the hounds, and make that stutue of a QB have to beat you under pressure. They might have to keep the TE in or pull Cook off the field for a blocking back.

Don't turn the ball over, then run the picket fence at 'em but don't get caught watching the paint dry. That'll do.

I think where the Smith Brothers and Gary will really, really help this game against the Vikings is how they set the edge on the run game. It ain't ****, but it will help stop Dalvin Cook and their zone run.

Cousins isn't as mobile as Trubisky, but he can read and get the ball out faster. Minnesota's OL does suck though. Kenny Clark is going to dominate Garrett Bradbury. DL matchup will be very fun to watch.

 

[XPack]

Okay. I'm a farmer. My role on the farm is more of a crop management type. Now I can run a combine, I can fix a combine, but that's not my main role, somebody else does that. My job is more difficult to fill, so that's where I go. It makes the whole operation run better. Ie, if I ran the combine but had somebody else doing my main job who isn't as qualified, the whole operation would suffer.

Knowing that, would it be fair to penalize or criticize me on my lack of combine operating? My job may not be as visible to the common person, but it's more important and makes the whole thing run well. Don Brown, Michigan's DC, would argue the same thing for Gary. Brown had multiple very good players on his defense, yet he said multiple times that Gary was what made it successful, and that he was productive.

I'll take his word, over a stat page, thank you very much.

I just feel that people try to apply a different scale to justify Gary that's not applied to other OLB/DEs. Pretty much every top OLB/DE we have currently or in hall of fame have stats to match. I wonder why we need to treat Gary as a exception to that? Brown's comments was specific to the scheme he was running (Gary's focus was on opposing TEs) which frankly does not apply to the role we want him to play with us.

If he still fails to rack in some stats, I doubt any here would look at him favourably purely for his intangibles 2 years down.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think where the Smith Brothers and Gary will really, really help this game against the Vikings is how they set the edge on the run game. It ain't ****, but it will help stop Dalvin Cook and their zone run.

Cousins isn't as mobile as Trubisky, but he can read and get the ball out faster. Minnesota's OL does suck though. Kenny Clark is going to dominate Garrett Bradbury. DL matchup will be very fun to watch.

The key to getting these guys to passing downs is in the first down base defense. I would not expect to see the Smiths and Gary together except on passing downs. Now, that might include situations like 2nd. and 7 where the Vikings choose to run against a nickel front. Then, sure, having these athletic big bodies who can funnel him inside would help. The key on those plays is the ILBs and safeties doing their jobs.

If Cousins is going to **** and dunk all day in trying to get to the red zone, let him. I don't think exchanging field goals is what we'll be seeing here.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If he still fails to rack in some stats, I doubt any here would look at him favourably purely for his intangibles 2 years down.

If by those "stats", you mean he creates a lot of hurries, sacks from the guys around him and a top 10 defense while he is playing on it, you can keep your 12 sacks/year on a crappy defense.

I know sack stats are ****, but they really aren't the full tale of what a defensive player is doing. To me that would be like saying "Jaire Alexander isn't that great of a CB, he only had 1 interception in his rookie year and 1 interception in his final year at Louisville."

 

[GleefulGary]

I just feel that people try to apply a different scale to justify Gary that's not applied to other OLB/DEs. Pretty much every top OLB/DE we have currently or in hall of fame have stats to match. I wonder why we need to treat Gary as a exception to that? Brown's comments was specific to the scheme he was running (Gary's focus was on opposing TEs) which frankly does not apply to the role we want him to play with us.

If he still fails to rack in some stats, I doubt any here would look at him favourably purely for his intangibles 2 years down.

When explaining Gary's start in college, I reference his college scheme/role. I'm not going to compare him to, say, Josh Allen because they played different positions. Now in the NFL they might play similar positions, which is comparable, but not college.

My responses have been to the 1400 snaps, 9.5 sacks comments. We can explain those with scheme/role AND say his stats should have been higher. Both are true.

If he wants to be a great edge in the NFL, he will need to accumulate sacks and pressures. I'm not denying that at all. And he's off to a good start in the NFL, playing a different position, albeit in a small sample size. And I care more about his 6 NFL snaps than I do his 1400 college snaps.

 

[tynimiller]

If by those "stats", you mean he creates a lot of hurries, sacks from the guys around him and a top 10 defense while he is playing on it, you can keep your 12 sacks/year on a crappy defense.

I know sack stats are ****, but they really aren't the full tale of what a defensive player is doing. To me that would be like saying "Jaire Alexander isn't that great of a CB, he only had 1 interception in his rookie year and 1 interception in his final year at Louisville."

AMEN AMEN AMEN

Folks get FAR to stat hungry when looking at or evaluating someone.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

AMEN AMEN AMEN

Folks get FAR to stat hungry when looking at or evaluating someone.

Yup meanwhile the "interception King" his final year at Iowa and a 2nd round pick, Joshua Jackson, is struggling to make it in the NFL.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I just feel that people try to apply a different scale to justify Gary that's not applied to other OLB/DEs. Pretty much every top OLB/DE we have currently or in hall of fame have stats to match. I wonder why we need to treat Gary as a exception to that? Brown's comments was specific to the scheme he was running (Gary's focus was on opposing TEs) which frankly does not apply to the role we want him to play with us.

If he still fails to rack in some stats, I doubt any here would look at him favourably purely for his intangibles 2 years down.

Conversely, all this fall back to college stats while ignoring developmental potential, of which we've have a brief glimpse, can be confirmation bias from parties who didn't like the player before the draft or that draft pick.

I would suggest that rather than focusing on water that has already flowed under the bridge and out of sight you look toward the water that is flowing toward you.

As for "stats", there is a preoccupation with sacks. They do tend to correlate to overall pressure counts but not always. If all you look at is sacks, then there would not have been three guys acquired at considerable cap and draft capital to play in front of 10-sack Kyler Fackrell. He didn't do much on the other pass rushes and some of those sacks were cheap.

Hurries are good. Hits are even better. Watch for those. Mostly bad things happen on QB hits, including picks.

A relevant question before the court would be who are you going to give 50+ snaps if one of the Smiths is injured, which is likely to happen for one game or another, assuming the object is to win the game that week? What if that is in week 3? Fackrell or Gary? Even on limited money game evidence I'd go with Gary. That's saying something for one game rookie edge player, many of whom taken in the first round are limited in their snaps and numbers in their first season.

If it turns out Gary is a disappointment relative to his draft status then I'll be willing to say so as anybody should. How about waiting for the evidence first? And that evidence won't be sufficient until we get well into next season.

 

[AmishMafia]

Turns out you guys were right. Found clip of pregame talk on Michigan sidelines last season. Transcribed here:

DC: All right defense, lets get out there and really get after them!
Gary: Yeah! Lets sack the QB!
DC: Well, everyone else but you, Gary.
Gary: Jeeze coach, why not me?
DC: Its not our scheme.
Gary: This is the last place team in the SEC. They are starting a freshman OT who looks very slow. I could easily rack up 5 sacks today.
DC: Oh we want to sack him, just not you. We want you to run around there in the backfield and just get close. You know, make them hurry up.
Gary: You don't want me to sack him?
DC: Nope. Just remember son, a pressure is a great statistic to have. Not as **** as a sack, but its good as well.
Gary: umm, okay.

 

[GleefulGary]

Turns out you guys were right. Found clip of pregame talk on Michigan sidelines last season. Transcribed here:

DC: All right defense, lets get out there and really get after them!
Gary: Yeah! Lets sack the QB!
DC: Well, everyone else but you, Gary.
Gary: Jeeze coach, why not me?
DC: Its not our scheme.
Gary: This is the last place team in the SEC. They are starting a freshman OT who looks very slow. I could easily rack up 5 sacks today.
DC: Oh we want to sack him, just not you. We want you to run around there in the backfield and just get close. You know, make them hurry up.
Gary: You don't want me to sack him?
DC: Nope. Just remember son, a pressure is a great statistic to have. Not as **** as a sack, but its good as well.
Gary: umm, okay.

You could, ya know, respond to what people are saying...or you can do this. I guess.

 

[XPack]

Folks get FAR to stat hungry when looking at or evaluating someone.

While others completely disregard them. Truth os as usual somewhere in the middle.

If by those "stats", you mean he creates a lot of hurries, sacks from the guys around him

Has there been any such top player who hasn't had stats himself but was in the team for "creating for others"?

 

[gopkrs]

Like Hard Right Edge I liked the way Rashan moved on the few plays I saw him. He looked fluid, fast and strong to me.

 

[AmishMafia]

You could, ya know, respond to what people are saying...or you can do this. I guess.

Why bother. When logic fails maybe some satire will help to illustrate an absurd argument.

Folks get FAR to stat hungry when looking at or evaluating someone.

. . . or combine number hungry

 

[XPack]

Conversely, all this fall back to college stats while ignoring developmental potential, of which we've have a brief glimpse, can be confirmation bias from parties who didn't like the player before the draft or that draft pick.

I wasn't arguing that at all. I have high hopes for him too. All I'm saying that he needs stats in NFL now. I can't envision as scenario where he lags behind whatever stats his peers accumulate yet continue to be regarded as a success.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Turns out you guys were right. Found clip of pregame talk on Michigan sidelines last season. Transcribed here:

DC: All right defense, lets get out there and really get after them!
Gary: Yeah! Lets sack the QB!
DC: Well, everyone else but you, Gary.
Gary: Jeeze coach, why not me?
DC: Its not our scheme.
Gary: This is the last place team in the SEC. They are starting a freshman OT who looks very slow. I could easily rack up 5 sacks today.
DC: Oh we want to sack him, just not you. We want you to run around there in the backfield and just get close. You know, make them hurry up.
Gary: You don't want me to sack him?
DC: Nope. Just remember son, a pressure is a great statistic to have. Not as **** as a sack, but its good as well.
Gary: umm, okay.

Well, if you're going to still assess a player on his college stats one game into his pro career, then you have some 'splaining to do with regards to this, from PFF:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-grading-all-32-first-round-picks-after-week-1-of-the-2019-nfl-season

"PICK NO. 5: LB DEVIN WHITE, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2019 overall grade: 43.1

White got off to a rocky start against the pass in this one. He allowed completions on all six of the throws into his primary coverage — giving up 65 total yards and 55 yards after the catch in the process — and he was held pressureless on his eight snaps as a pass-rusher. There were a few positives, however, as his three coverage stops this week led all first-year defenders."

As I noted pre-draft, if you scour White's highlight tapes, as that of most college ILBs, you won't see him doing much past 5 or so yards from the line of scrimage. Oh, sure, he's instinctual, quick to the hole and makes plays sideline-to-sideline with his speed. Whether a case of scheme requirements against all those spread option offenses or some coverage deficiency, he wasn't asked to be the 360 degree player a 3-down NFL ILB needs to be. Now he's chasing down NFL receivers instead of covering them in his opening game.

So, as one entertains the possibility that a college player's underwhelming stats might be a function of his role in the defense (chucking TEs is something Gary's Michigan coach says he was asked to do quite a bit), consider the other side of the coin, what a college player might not be asked to do that might otherwise expose him.

Will White eventually be a good coverage ILB? Probably. Possibly not. You'll just have to wait and see. The point being the NFL is a different game than college ball.

By the way, speed-to-power is not some Combine number. If one bothers to look it is evident on the football field. That's raw material you can work with that doesn't come by way of a stopwatch.

As for, "Just remember son, a pressure is a great statistic to have. Not as **** as a sack, but its good as well:"

I think you meant "hurry" which is in fact a good statistic to have. Pressures encompass hurries, hits and sacks. Hits are an even better stat to have than hurries. I like hits quite a bit myself.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

"Your honor, I would conclude that there is not enough substantial evidence yet available or presented by either side to prove something that hasn't occurred yet. Given that, I would petition the court to set aside making a ruling until such time that concrete evidence actually has occurred and thus exists".