Marquez Valdes-Scantling

[PackAttack12]

As for the Sheppard/MVS comparison, I don't see how you can compare the two as aside from that fumble MVS has proven to be more of an asset to this team unlike Sheppard. Hell he even lead the team in receiving one game if I'm not mistaken.

This is a fair point. My only reason in bringing it up is that sometimes, it doesn't matter how much good you do if you can't get out of your own way on the bad stuff. Now, to your point, MVS has done a lot of good for the team while Shepard was an absolute train wreck who did almost nothing positive.

But it goes to a deeper point of mine in that, the Packers, even though the Shepard experiment was a disaster last year, tried to double down on him being a contributor this year and it blew up.

Goes to support my overall point that Gute and company has failed to properly support the position group.

 

[Do7]

Goes to support my overall point that Gute and company has failed to properly support the position group.

Now THAT we can both agree on! This is more on Rodgers and MLF figuring things out and making things work.

 

[sschind]

I expect any WR who is on the field to be able to catch WIDE OPEN balls. If you can't do that, you deserve criticism. You guys keep pointing to his 72 yrd TD.... great you caught an open perfectly placed ball, you should do that EVERY TIME no matter your placement on the depth chart.

If you are in the NFL you need to make those catches. You aren't going to get many chances that easy. I do think that he makes that catch 4 out of 5 times though. Lets hope we get a chance to see it in the divisional round.

And I expect a QB being touted as the greatest passer ever and a first ballot HOFer being pinpoint on all his passes but we get what we get.

I really don't think the two are the same. The thing is though that QB who is being touted as the greatest passer ever and a first ballot HOFer was pinpoint on that pass and the WR dropped it.

 

[JK64]

I get that but at the same time, he caught a 72 yard TD. That's pretty good for a number 3 receiver is it not? He had a pretty decent game, but people are flipping their **** simply b/c he missed an open pass. It's unfortunate, but it didn't cost us ultimately. If he missed both deep balls you'd have me and I can understand why some people would go in ******* him. But he had a decent day, for what I expect of him. If anyone expected more, then they Idk what to tell them.

It’s not like it was his first drop there is a trend of suck here.

 

[RRyder]

It’s not like it was his first drop there is a trend of suck here.

Its a trend of feast or famine. Not "suck"

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Okay this is taking it a step too far

Don't EVER put Rodgers and MVS in the same breath as far as mistakes made in a game.

But it was a valid point. Would`ve, Could`ve, Should`ve. It is what it is. He wasn`t being disrespectful to Rodgers.

 

[tynimiller]

And yet some of us had the temerity to suggest upgrades should have been made to the position group, and that relying solely on internal improvement might not be good enough to contend for a championship.

BUT THAT isn't the discussion. There are VERY few people here that were of the mindset: man our WR room is an A+ and don't need a thing. I was pissed we didn't draft a WR.

However, instead due to all this frustration over not drafting or bringing in a big name...many have chosen to live in a fantasy world with MVS. In this world literally EVERYTHING that happens in a game that is negative is MVS's fault...and if not (on the rare occasion) it is Kevin King's fault.

It has gotten to a ludacris level. Adams has dropped bunnies this year, Lazard...Tonyan...yes MVS has had more, however one has to realize he is purely a deep threat or big play type wide receiver (added because clearly some misunderstood the term). If anyone spends just a minute analyzing completion percentages as the yards of the pass increases you'll realize % complete expectations need to drop for a WR (except the incredibly special aka Adams). His three seasons here has been 52.1%, 46.4% & 52.4% catch percentages. Terrible for a possession type WR like a Lazard (67.3 and 71.7) BUT for a guy that literally has a yards per reception of 20.9 (BLOWS rest of league away this season) MVS's catch % is not too far off base for deep ball guys.

Take Kenny Stills as example, Has always averaged around that 15 yards per reception figure being a deep ball threat. His career average catch percentage is 59.6 but has had 3 seasons over 60% and two over 70%. Stills to me sets the goal for MVS...BUT here's the crazy thing. If MVS could push his catch percentage just up 5 ticks (5%) and stay around that 54-58% range, the dude could make the argument of being one of the special deep threats in the league.

Few other recent names of deep ball guys everyone will recognize:

Devery Henderson - many consider one of the best deep ball guys of recent years(had 3 seasons eclipsing the 20 yards per reception figure) and he averaged only 55.4%. He only broke 60% on two seasons and had 3 below 50%. This was all with a HOF quarterback by the name of Drew Brees flinging it to him for nearly all those years.

Desean Jackson - led the league in Y/R 4 different times (two of those times over 20.0)..catch percentage average for his career...56%. Those four years he led the league in Y/R his %s were 49.5% - 58.9% - 56% - 55.4%

Vincent Jackson - Averaged over 16 yards a recept for his career, led the league one year and averaged ONLY 52.2 catch percentage. The dude only broke 60% one time in his career.

James Jett - Led the league one year in Y/R and averaged over 17 yards a recept for his career....his career average was literally ONLY 47.7%. He broke 55% only one time in 2001 when he only had 3 targets and 2 receptions...so really NEVER. The year he led the league...his percentage was only 42.3%

Malcom Floyd - Led the league once, broke 20 once and averaged 17.3 over his career in Y/R. His career average catch % was 56.3%. He had only 3 seasons over 60% (one being the year he led the league) The year he averaged 24.8 (didn't lead the league shockingly) he averaged 54.5%

Josh Gordon - Never led the league but career average is 17.2 Y/R. His catch percentage has never been over 58% and career average is 53.5%

Flipper Anderson - Only half his career did they track catch %...but dude averaged for a career over 20 Y/R (4th best of all time) and the four seasons they did track % he averaged only 45.4%

So again, why does everyone expect some INSANE numbers for a guy that is still young, until this year showed no expanded route tree options...it just doesn't make sense at all. The crazy thing is...he isn't too far off of some INCREDIBLE player's that many would deem were elite deep ball threats in Jackson and Henderson.

His drops are incredibly frustrating, and given the nature of the game can be deflating for sure...however deep balls tossed are nearly a flip of a coin gamble - and like any gambling you do its high risk or high reward. MVS is a rare breed of a human being when it comes to the un-coachable trait called speed. The good news is, rookie contract and still plenty of time to get his hands better...he'll never be a possession type 70% or higher type guy...but man the closer he creeps to 60% the closer he is to seriously a special spot not many deep ball types see.

 

[tynimiller]

It’s not like it was his first drop there is a trend of suck here.

As I broke down statistically compared to other deep ball guys, he most definitely doesn't suck. Is he on the level of all those guys I listed..no, definitely not. However, honestly a few and he isn't far off IF he literally just catches 4-8% more deep tosses a year.

 

[Mondio]

I know what the percentages say and unless I go thru and see every one from every player I don't think they're telling the complete truth. Usually deep balls are just a bit off target and result in slightly tougher catches. Catchable, but tougher. Where they lay out to catch one, have to slow up and lets the defender back in the play, are running to the post and have to turn and redirect to the corner to run under the ball etc. It results in a lower percentage play.

But MVS has been dropping dimes dropped right in his pocket. It can't just be explained away by using stats. I'm not one to call him useless, he definitely has value and man if he could stay consistent he'd be a killer of a weapon. He'd average a TD a game easily on 2 passes. He would never have to be more than that to greatly influence the team. and if he'd drop 1 out of 2-3 where he was laying out for it, or Rodgers thru it inside shoulder and he had to adjust to outside shoulder last second on the fly etc I'd be more inclined to say, he's right there with the rest of them. But he's not. You can not keep dropping those passes he's dropped. He was looking more confident, all I can do is hope it was a blip and he continues to catch the ball.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm not attempting to explain anything away. Folks keep pretending he is something he isn't, I'm merely illustrating the dude is mere "inches" from being an insanely pure deep ball guy.

It appears he's been credited with 8 drops this year. I'll assume all or at minimum 6 of those were "bunnies" as we all put it. He catches say 6 of those, his average shoots up to 61.9%. That's why I say he is so close, and I think that is why Rodgers and MLF all love the kid and keep defending him. They know, and see what he is and could be, more than any of us couch coaches with keyboards. IF he can just remove the massive drops (have to watch tape to know how many of those 8 were like last night's one) it would be incredible.

 

[PackAttack12]

BUT THAT isn't the discussion. There are VERY few people here that were of the mindset, man our WR room is an A+ and don't need a thing.

However, instead due to all this frustration over not drafting or bringing in a big name...many have chosen to leave in a fantasy world with MVS. In this world literally EVERYTHING that happens in a game that is negative is MVS's fault...and if not (on the rare occasion) it is Kevin King's fault.

It has gotten to a ludacris level. Adams has dropped bunnies this year, Lazard...Tonyan...yes MVS has had more, however one has to realize he is purely a deep threat wide receiver. If anyone spends just a minute analyzing completion percentages as the yards of the pass increases you'll realize % complete expectations need to drop for a WR (except the incredibly special aka Adams). His three seasons here has been 52.1%, 46.4% & 52.4% catch percentages. Terrible for a possession type WR like a Lazard (67.3 and 71.7) BUT for a guy that literally has a yards per reception of 20.9 (BLOWS rest of league away this season) MVS's catch % is not too far off base for deep ball guys.

Take Kenny Stills as example, Has always averaged around that 15 yards per reception figure being a deep ball threat. His career average catch percentage is 59.6 but has had 3 seasons over 60% and two over 70%. Stills to me sets the goal for MVS...BUT here's the crazy thing. If MVS could push his catch percentage just up 5 ticks (5%) and stay around that 54-58% range, the dude could make the argument of being one of the special deep threats in the league.

Few other recent names of deep ball guys everyone will recognize:

Devery Henderson - many consider one of the best deep ball guys of recent years(had 3 seasons eclipsing the 20 yards per reception figure) and he averaged only 55.4%. He only broke 60% on two seasons and had 3 below 50%. This was all with a HOF quarterback by the name of Drew Brees flinging it to him for nearly all those years.

Desean Jackson - led the league in Y/R 4 different times (two of those times over 20.0)..catch percentage average for his career...56%. Those four years he led the league in Y/R his %s were 49.5% - 58.9% - 56% - 55.4%

Vincent Jackson - Averaged over 16 yards a recept for his career, led the league one year and averaged ONLY 52.2 catch percentage. The dude only broke 60% one time in his career.

James Jett - Led the league one year in Y/R and averaged over 17 yards a recept for his career....his career average was literally ONLY 47.7%. He broke 55% only one time in 2001 when he only had 3 targets and 2 receptions...so really NEVER. The year he led the league...his percentage was only 42.3%

Malcom Floyd - Led the league once, broke 20 once and averaged 17.3 over his career in Y/R. His career average catch % was 56.3%. He had only 3 seasons over 60% (one being the year he led the league) The year he averaged 24.8 (didn't lead the league shockingly) he averaged 54.5%

Josh Gordon - Never led the league but career average is 17.2 Y/R. His catch percentage has never been over 58% and career average is 53.5%

Flipper Anderson - Only half his career did they track catch %...but dude averaged for a career over 20 Y/R (4th best of all time) and the four seasons they did track % he averaged only 45.4%

So again, why does everyone expect some INSANE numbers for a guy that is still young, until this year showed no expanded route tree options...it just doesn't make sense at all. The crazy thing is...he isn't too far off of some INCREDIBLE player's that many would deem were elite deep ball threats in Jackson and Henderson.

His drops are incredibly frustrating, and given the nature of the game can be deflating for sure...however deep balls tossed are nearly a flip of a coin gamble - and like any gambling you do its high risk or high reward. MVS is a rare breed of a human being when it comes to the un-coachable trait called speed. The good news is, rookie contract and still plenty of time to get his hands better...he'll never be a possession type 70% or higher type guy...but man the closer he creeps to 60% the closer he is to seriously a special spot not many deep ball types see.

You're pretending as if all he does is run deep routes which couldn't be the furthest thing from the truth. You cannot judge a player as solely a deep threat when he runs a lot of intermediate and short routes as well.

I understand the point you're making. You're providing a counter to the MVS extreme-ists. And I do not support those people. But I believe my post was more than fair, yet you and a few others have consistently been an apologist for him and for the Packers not upgrading the position more.

It's like let me spend very few words saying "I don't quite agree with what the Packers did or didn't do", but then spend the other 97% of your posts explaining it away.

 

[Do7]

It’s not like it was his first drop there is a trend of suck here.

You would have me if he dropped the first 72 yard bomb but he didn't. Again you guys are harping on the one he dropped and dismissing the one he caught. Hell some of you are calling him a DUD b/c of that. Catching a 72 yard TD does NOT make you a dud. Semi dud? Maybe and that's pushing it. But a DUD? This is why I push back b/c the expectations are so high. We've seen Lazard drop a few important balls but he gets off Scott free. I'm not comparing the two but even Adams dropped a few perfectly placed balls, and yet he had an overall good game, we forgave him. Why aren't we doing the same for MVS in this case? Why is he the black sheep? He played decent yesterday.

Alright to settle things. What grade would you would've gave MVS based off his performance yesterday? When I think of Dud that's an F or D- at best as you were a liability to the team.

MVS at worse gets a C and at best a B. I'm not gonna penalize him b/c he dropped a pass, and pretend he didn't catch a huge pass. His dropped prevents him from getting an A or an A+.

 

[tynimiller]

You're pretending as if all he does is run deep routes which couldn't be the furthest thing from the truth. You cannot judge a player as solely a deep threat when he runs a lot of intermediate and short routes as well.

I understand the point you're making. You're providing a counter to the MVS extreme-ists. And I do not support those people. But I believe my post was more than fair, yet you and a few others have consistently been an apologist for him and for the Packers not upgrading the position more.

It's like let me spend very few words saying "I don't quite agree with what the Packers did or didn't do", but then spend the other 97% of your posts explaining it away.

I am not saying he solely runs deep routes, however he is a deep threat type receiver and NOT a possession type receiver. Hence why he should and is logically compared to other wide outs listed for perspective sake.

I LITERALLY banged the drum all the days leading up to the draft and the days of the draft wanting a WR. I broke that down a TON. I was pissed we didn't get a potential solid #2 in the draft for that room - because we do not have one. I won't however allow that issue cloud my judgement of a player or inflate it either.

MVS at BEST should be a team's #3 WR and about #5/#6 offensive weapon, unless he improves his hands and IMO route tree.

 

[PackAttack12]

I'm not attempting to explain anything away. Folks keep pretending he is something he isn't, I'm merely illustrating the dude is mere "inches" from being an insanely pure deep ball guy.

It appears he's been credited with 8 drops this year. I'll assume all or at minimum 6 of those were "bunnies" as we all put it. He catches say 6 of those, his average shoots up to 61.9%. That's why I say he is so close, and I think that is why Rodgers and MLF all love the kid and keep defending him. They know, and see what he is and could be, more than any of us couch coaches with keyboards. IF he can just remove the massive drops (have to watch tape to know how many of those 8 were like last night's one) it would be incredible.

Imagine saying "if" he catches 6 of his 8 drops so casually....

Yes, they are defending MVS. What other option is there at this point? No one is going to throw him under the bus and wreck his confidence. To your point, he does have a role in the offense. Not defending him would be counter productive.

 

[PackAttack12]

I am not saying he solely runs deep routes, however he is a deep threat type receiver and NOT a possession type receiver. Hence why he should and is logically compared to other wide outs.

"however one has to realize he is purely a deep threat wide receiver."

Color me confused.

 

[tynimiller]

"however one has to realize he is purely a deep threat wide receiver."

Color me confused.

Okay, so I typed the words, but I'm speaking more to the "type" of wide out he is. He is a big yardage, deep ball WR type. He doesn't bring to the field quick crossers or insane route running abilities to work the short yardages or medium distances like Adams or Lazard or well anyone that fits that.

Edited and added to the original post since it was clearly a confusing description of the WR type he falls into.

 

[PackAttack12]

He doesn't bring to the field quick crossers or insane route running abilities to work the short yardages or medium distances like Adams or Lazard or well anyone that fits that.

Again though...with this being said, the Packers still use him quite a bit in those situations.

 

[tynimiller]

Again though...with this being said, the Packers still use him quite a bit in those situations.

(hit head against the wall)

Oh my word, so even deep threats like the ones listed in my post - the majority of their routes are not just posts or streaks....just because MVS runs shorter routes does not change the WR type he is and what his purpose is in the offensive scheme or system.

 

[PackAttack12]

Okay, so I typed the words, but I'm speaking more to the "type" of wide out he is. He is a big yardage, deep ball WR type. He doesn't bring to the field quick crossers or insane route running abilities to work the short yardages or medium distances like Adams or Lazard or well anyone that fits that.

I'm literally using your words. Sorry if that frustrates you.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm literally using your words. Sorry if that frustrates you.

As I stated, you took the words specifically, where I was categorizing what overall receiver type he is. He is a deep threat/big play receiver 100%. One that is struggling mightedly at times with his hands, but still is a deep ball threat receiver type.

 

[Dantés]

Here are the leaders in the NFL in ADOT (Average Depth of Target) and their catch percentages (Min. 40 targets).

1. Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 17.8 yds; 52.4%
   
2. Henry Ruggs: 17.8; 57.5%
3. Scotty Miller: 15.9; 64%
4. Jalen Guyton: 15.8; 54.9%
5. Breshad Perriman: 15.4; 50.9%
6. Nelson Agholor: 14.9; 60%
7. Gabriel Davis: 14.7; 57.9%
8. Mike Williams: 14.6; 53.8%
9. D.J. Chark: 14.1; 56.4%
10. Calvin Ridley: 14.1; 62.6%

A couple of observations:

1. The gap between Ruggs and MVS and #3 (1.9 yards) is bigger than the gap between #3 and #10. Those two are leading the league in air yards by a really big margin. So while it's true that not every target MVS gets is deep, they are, on average, tied for the deepest in the league by quite a bit. He is as close to anyone in the NFL to being a "pure deep threat."

2. MVS's catch % is totally normal given how he's used.

This is not to say he has good hands, we can just excuse the drops as though they don't matter, or anything like that. But as @tynimiller has helped to illustrate, you have to consider catch % in the context of usage. Many (not all) fans judge him without any regard to context and without understanding what's typical.

 

[tynimiller]

@Dantés thanks for bringing in the Average Depth of Target to the conversation. My post was already too long, and I cut breaching the topic. It is a great illustration of how he is used and how he is, as you and I both used the term, a "pure deep threat" receiver type.

 

[longtimefan]

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/packe...ls-708?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

I've said it before, and it bares stating again. MVS is what he is. He's not getting any better or any more reliable. He will make incredible plays, and bonehead plays, both of which he did in this game. Is he worth it? Absolutely. I'll take the occasional big drop in exchange for the occasional 72 yard touchdown pass. Give me that trade any time.

 

[pacmaniac]

We have Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to MVS. All those other deep guys with similar catch % as MVS probably had a lot of deep balls overthrown/underthrown/in traffic. Rodgers has thrown several perfectly placed balls to a wide open MVS, so his catch % needs to be higher to match Rodgers' perfectly-placed-ball-percentage.

 

[Mondio]

Here are the leaders in the NFL in ADOT (Average Depth of Target) and their catch percentages (Min. 40 targets).

1. Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 17.8 yds; 52.4%
   
2. Henry Ruggs: 17.8; 57.5%
3. Scotty Miller: 15.9; 64%
4. Jalen Guyton: 15.8; 54.9%
5. Breshad Perriman: 15.4; 50.9%
6. Nelson Agholor: 14.9; 60%
7. Gabriel Davis: 14.7; 57.9%
8. Mike Williams: 14.6; 53.8%
9. D.J. Chark: 14.1; 56.4%
10. Calvin Ridley: 14.1; 62.6%

A couple of observations:

1. The gap between Ruggs and MVS and #3 (1.9 yards) is bigger than the gap between #3 and #10. Those two are leading the league in air yards by a really big margin. So while it's true that not every target MVS gets is deep, they are, on average, tied for the deepest in the league by quite a bit. He is as close to anyone in the NFL to being a "pure deep threat."

2. MVS's catch % is totally normal given how he's used.

This is not to say he has good hands, we can just excuse the drops as though they don't matter, or anything like that. But as @tynimiller has helped to illustrate, you have to consider catch % in the context of usage. Many (not all) fans judge him without any regard to context and without understanding what's typical.

I agree to the point that his catch percentage on those plays is good enough to serve the purpose within the offense. Nobody is completing those deep passes every time so the threat is there and keeps defenses paying attention.

But I think the percentages for those passes are usually lower for reasons I posted above, but passes like last night's drop are a little different. Still a tougher catch. anybody who's ever played catch with a baseball or football knows the further away you are the more variables, but still when those variables line up to a perfect pass, just catch it.

It would turn MVS from a cog in the wheel to a weapon that just demoralizes defenses. Chase him all over the field and 2-3 times a game he's going to flip the field or score TD's.