Marquez Valdes-Scantling

[sschind]

I know what the percentages say and unless I go thru and see every one from every player I don't think they're telling the complete truth. Usually deep balls are just a bit off target and result in slightly tougher catches. Catchable, but tougher. Where they lay out to catch one, have to slow up and lets the defender back in the play, are running to the post and have to turn and redirect to the corner to run under the ball etc. It results in a lower percentage play.

But MVS has been dropping dimes dropped right in his pocket. It can't just be explained away by using stats. I'm not one to call him useless, he definitely has value and man if he could stay consistent he'd be a killer of a weapon. He'd average a TD a game easily on 2 passes. He would never have to be more than that to greatly influence the team. and if he'd drop 1 out of 2-3 where he was laying out for it, or Rodgers thru it inside shoulder and he had to adjust to outside shoulder last second on the fly etc I'd be more inclined to say, he's right there with the rest of them. But he's not. You can not keep dropping those passes he's dropped. He was looking more confident, all I can do is hope it was a blip and he continues to catch the ball.

I couldn't have said it better myself, and believe me I was going to try. Not catching a pass is not always the same as dropping a pass.

 

[Dantés]

We have Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to MVS. All those other deep guys with similar catch % as MVS probably had a lot of deep balls overthrown/underthrown/in traffic. Rodgers has thrown several perfectly placed balls to a wide open MVS, so his catch % needs to be higher to match Rodgers' perfectly-placed-ball-percentage.

Yeah, that's fair.

So if you add that aspect of context to it, and say that MVS's catch% should be a little higher, I would agree with that. But a lot of guys on that list were playing with QB's who were highly accurate this year, so the point only extends so far (Allen at 69.2% completion; Carr at 67.3; Herbert at 66.6).

But the overall point is that a catch % in the 50's is pretty typical when you're being used that way.

 

[swhitset]

BUT THAT isn't the discussion. There are VERY few people here that were of the mindset: man our WR room is an A+ and don't need a thing. I was pissed we didn't draft a WR.

However, instead due to all this frustration over not drafting or bringing in a big name...many have chosen to live in a fantasy world with MVS. In this world literally EVERYTHING that happens in a game that is negative is MVS's fault...and if not (on the rare occasion) it is Kevin King's fault.

It has gotten to a ludacris level. Adams has dropped bunnies this year, Lazard...Tonyan...yes MVS has had more, however one has to realize he is purely a deep threat or big play type wide receiver (added because clearly some misunderstood the term). If anyone spends just a minute analyzing completion percentages as the yards of the pass increases you'll realize % complete expectations need to drop for a WR (except the incredibly special aka Adams). His three seasons here has been 52.1%, 46.4% & 52.4% catch percentages. Terrible for a possession type WR like a Lazard (67.3 and 71.7) BUT for a guy that literally has a yards per reception of 20.9 (BLOWS rest of league away this season) MVS's catch % is not too far off base for deep ball guys.

Take Kenny Stills as example, Has always averaged around that 15 yards per reception figure being a deep ball threat. His career average catch percentage is 59.6 but has had 3 seasons over 60% and two over 70%. Stills to me sets the goal for MVS...BUT here's the crazy thing. If MVS could push his catch percentage just up 5 ticks (5%) and stay around that 54-58% range, the dude could make the argument of being one of the special deep threats in the league.

Few other recent names of deep ball guys everyone will recognize:

Devery Henderson - many consider one of the best deep ball guys of recent years(had 3 seasons eclipsing the 20 yards per reception figure) and he averaged only 55.4%. He only broke 60% on two seasons and had 3 below 50%. This was all with a HOF quarterback by the name of Drew Brees flinging it to him for nearly all those years.

Desean Jackson - led the league in Y/R 4 different times (two of those times over 20.0)..catch percentage average for his career...56%. Those four years he led the league in Y/R his %s were 49.5% - 58.9% - 56% - 55.4%

Vincent Jackson - Averaged over 16 yards a recept for his career, led the league one year and averaged ONLY 52.2 catch percentage. The dude only broke 60% one time in his career.

James Jett - Led the league one year in Y/R and averaged over 17 yards a recept for his career....his career average was literally ONLY 47.7%. He broke 55% only one time in 2001 when he only had 3 targets and 2 receptions...so really NEVER. The year he led the league...his percentage was only 42.3%

Malcom Floyd - Led the league once, broke 20 once and averaged 17.3 over his career in Y/R. His career average catch % was 56.3%. He had only 3 seasons over 60% (one being the year he led the league) The year he averaged 24.8 (didn't lead the league shockingly) he averaged 54.5%

Josh Gordon - Never led the league but career average is 17.2 Y/R. His catch percentage has never been over 58% and career average is 53.5%

Flipper Anderson - Only half his career did they track catch %...but dude averaged for a career over 20 Y/R (4th best of all time) and the four seasons they did track % he averaged only 45.4%

So again, why does everyone expect some INSANE numbers for a guy that is still young, until this year showed no expanded route tree options...it just doesn't make sense at all. The crazy thing is...he isn't too far off of some INCREDIBLE player's that many would deem were elite deep ball threats in Jackson and Henderson.

His drops are incredibly frustrating, and given the nature of the game can be deflating for sure...however deep balls tossed are nearly a flip of a coin gamble - and like any gambling you do its high risk or high reward. MVS is a rare breed of a human being when it comes to the un-coachable trait called speed. The good news is, rookie contract and still plenty of time to get his hands better...he'll never be a possession type 70% or higher type guy...but man the closer he creeps to 60% the closer he is to seriously a special spot not many deep ball types see.

You’ve posted these stats before... and I agree with them. However, as I said in a post above, there are reasons why deep balls are harder to catch involving having to adjust your running speed, dealing with the most likely interfering defender, trajectory of the ball as it’s coming down etc... People are particularly upset with MVS last night because that ball involved none of that. It came down perfectly and required him to do nothing but catch it. I’ve seen punts that were more difficult to catch, and nobody is going to have much tolerance for a punt returner that drops 50% of the punts he fields.

 

[PackAttack12]

Percentages are one thing, but having the benefit of being a Packers fan and watching every snap this year, a lot of his drops are perfectly placed footballs, and a lot of them are dropped with little resistance from a defender.

I'm not completely anti-MVS. But I'm not a cheerleader for him either.

 

[longtimefan]

Do we know if these percentages are very catchable balls??

Wo knowing that, one probably can’t truly say mvs is worse than others

we have to know how the other balls are being thrown

 

[tynimiller]

We have Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to MVS. All those other deep guys with similar catch % as MVS probably had a lot of deep balls overthrown/underthrown/in traffic. Rodgers has thrown several perfectly placed balls to a wide open MVS, so his catch % needs to be higher to match Rodgers' perfectly-placed-ball-percentage.

Go back and look at those WRs and the quarterbacks throwing them the ball. The argument you're making is based on gut/opinion not actual stats or facts. I concur not all of them had probably HOF level QBs at all times but take Henderson for example. Drew Brees in his prime.

Also MVS has been credited with 8 drops this season. EVEN if all those are cookies, and should not be dropped - because like last nights it should have been caught...but that is still only 8 balls. He corrects even half that he is excelling in the catch percentage category which is one all deep threat wideouts struggle at.

 

[tynimiller]

Do we know if these percentages are very catchable balls??

Wo knowing that, one probably can’t truly say mvs is worse than others

we have to know how the other balls are being thrown

Be impossible to know, however when speaking to averages over a player's entire career you will equalize a decent amount of that. Is it perfect, no but it is better than allowing emotions drive illogical conclusions as well.

I'd bet Henderson with Brees tossing to him had plenty of catchable or even "cookies" tossed that he dropped given his low catch % numbers.

MVS has had 8 drops. Even if all of those 8 were cookies (no defense and in the basket) it's still not as prolific of a problem given his WR type when stepping back and looking at the whole picture.

Not defendable at all are the drops like the one last night, not even in the slightest...but it is an aspect of every big deep threat WR over the years.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm not completely anti-MVS. But I'm not a cheerleader for him either.

I actually despise his type of WR from a fan's perspective.

They're very frustrating because of the roller coaster of plays they provide by nature of what they are. They make something so difficult look so easy and then other times its like they've never caught a football before.

 

[tynimiller]

You’ve posted these stats before... and I agree with them. However, as I said in a post above, there are reasons why deep balls are harder to catch involving having to adjust your running speed, dealing with the most likely interfering defender, trajectory of the ball as it’s coming down etc... People are particularly upset with MVS last night because that ball involved none of that. It came down perfectly and required him to do nothing but catch it. I’ve seen punts that were more difficult to catch, and nobody is going to have much tolerance for a punt returner that drops 50% of the punts he fields.

I've never once attempted to defend individual drops. That ball should be caught 100 out of 100 times.

 

[Do7]

Also MVS has been credited with 8 drops this season. EVEN if all those are cookies, and should not be dropped - because like last nights it should have been caught...but that is still only 8 balls. He corrects even half that he is excelling in the catch percentage category which is one all deep threat wideouts struggle at.

Also nearly 700 yards and 6TDs is pretty good for a #3 receiver

 

[pacmaniac]

Go back and look at those WRs and the quarterbacks throwing them the ball. The argument you're making is based on gut/opinion not actual stats or facts. I concur not all of them had probably HOF level QBs at all times but take Henderson for example. Drew Brees in his prime.

Maybe Henderson had a lot of drops too then? It certainly looks like it from all the complaints about him on the Saints forum:

https://saintsreport.com/threads/d-henderson-merged.10412/page-6#post-128318

 

[tynimiller]

Maybe Henderson had a lot of drops too then? It certainly looks like it from all the complaints about him on the Saints forum:

https://saintsreport.com/threads/d-henderson-merged.10412/page-6#post-128318

You do realize that is concurring with what I'm saying. Nearly every single deep threat style wideout struggles with drops and a low catch percentage.

Eagle fans used to be ticked to high heaven about DeSean's drops. I mean the dude would amass 1,000 yard seasons and barely scratch a higher catch percentage than MVS...

Same with Malcom Floyd and James Jett...many kept thinking they were an elite WR ready to break big time and just kept being a consistent "typical deep threat WR"

 

[longtimefan]

Also nearly 700 yards and 6TDs is pretty good for a #3 receiver

Recall push for Fulgham? His work ethic was questioned by the team. Here are his final numbers
38 catches
539 yards
14.2 per
42 long
4 tds

 

[Mondio]

I just want him to catch them because I'm a Packer fan and we could kill teams at every level on offense regularly. and the 2nd reason, he seems like a good kid. I can tell he's been working hard and he seems kind of quiet and like he beats himself up on the inside more than anyone out here does. I want to see him come thru all of this and see that keeping his nose down and working was worth it. he can do it, he's done it, he just needs to stay consistent.

 

[easyk83]

I actually despise his type of WR from a fan's perspective.

They're very frustrating because of the roller coaster of plays they provide by nature of what they are. They make something so difficult look so easy and then other times its like they've never caught a football before.

I can live with them as frustrating as they are, the impact on a game is palpable even when they're not making plays. Lined up in the slot either a team shades him with a safety, they cover him with their 1 or 2 CB single coverage in the slot or they risk MVS against an LB or Nickel corner and we saw how that turned out last night.

The fluidity in his movements, the routes and the speed... he just flat out burns defenders and that tuddy last night is a perfect example. Rodgers has the ball in his hands at 8:40 and throws that ball at 8:38, with a free runner closing in on Rodgers. Honestly even if the safety attacked the deep route, and broke his own assignment, MVS still burns the defense. A defense runs that blitz by dangling the LB on receiver coverage in front of the quarterback betting that the CB gets their first. Obviously MVS burned it too quickly.

Inconsistent yes, but defenses still have to scheme against him and he undoubtedly takes pressure away from the rest of our offense.

 

[XPack]

I can live with them as frustrating as they are, the impact on a game is palpable even when they're not making plays.

I don't like this reasoning at all. It's a skill position and we need a skill player making plays. Everything else is a secondary/fringe benefit. As long as the primary objective is not filled properly, it certainly is a failure. May not be a total failure, but still is a failure.

 

[easyk83]

I don't like this reasoning at all. It's a skill position and we need a skill player making plays. Everything else is a secondary/fringe benefit. As long as the primary objective is not filled properly, it certainly is a failure. May not be a total failure, but still is a failure.

Do we presently have another playmaker on the roster?

Does our need for a more consistent number 3/4 receiving option outweigh our holes elsewhere on the team? We lack depth at ILB and CB with Kings likely departure, we also have a star LT who just went down with an ACL and a question mark on the other side of the line. We need help at OL to help protect our HoF quarterback who looks like he has another 4-5 years in him if we can keep him upright. As it were, we can live with him and while frustrating he still adds value. The cost of upgrading the position might not be worth lost opportunity elsewhere. There's a reason why teams put up with receivers of his playmaking ability combined with his defects, and its the same reason that a strikeout prone slugger is often tolerated in an MLB lineup. MVS is a scoring threat from anywhere on the field.

Right now Id say our top 3 receiving options excluding backs are 1) Davante Adams, 2) Robert Tonyan, 3) Allen Lazard. So is option receiving option number 4 worth more than protecting Rodgers or shoring up our perimeter defense?

 

[tynimiller]

The cost of upgrading the position might not be worth lost opportunity elsewhere.

...especially not when he is on a rookie contract and performing about as expected for a deep threat receiver. Don't get me wrong I think a guy like Anthony Schwartz out of Auburn has my eye HARD. The dude is FAST...but I've also seen some boneheaded drops out of him as well. Depending on where you'd pick Schwartz the pick would be worth seeing if he could be the slightly better version of MVS...albeit I'd like to attempt to replace MVS the year after he isn't under rookie contract and he walks possibly.

 

[Mondio]

I don't like this reasoning at all. It's a skill position and we need a skill player making plays. Everything else is a secondary/fringe benefit. As long as the primary objective is not filled properly, it certainly is a failure. May not be a total failure, but still is a failure.

I think his skill does make plays, even if it's not him making it. He "could" be a lot more than he is. But even if he's not. There are 3 other receivers on this team that are going to be replaced before he is because none of them can do what he does.

Even if he never got any more consistent he likely has a place on this team for the next couple years at least because he can easily be that 3rd or 4th WR that takes the top off a defense and everyone else is catching the majority of the balls.

 

[PikeBadger]

...especially not when he is on a rookie contract and performing about as expected for a deep threat receiver. Don't get me wrong I think a guy like Anthony Schwartz out of Auburn has my eye HARD. The dude is FAST...but I've also seen some boneheaded drops out of him as well. Depending on where you'd pick Schwartz the pick would be worth seeing if he could be the slightly better version of MVS...albeit I'd like to attempt to replace MVS the year after he isn't under rookie contract and he walks possibly.

Then we need to draft his replacement and any others with expiring contracts in this draft. Waiting until they are a free agent is a year too late. Who wants to roll the dice on a dang rookie if you don’t have to? That’s what the perennial bottom feeders do.

 

[tynimiller]

Then we need to draft his replacement and any others with expiring contracts in this draft. Waiting until they are a free agent is a year too late. Who wants to roll the dice on a dang rookie if you don’t have to? That’s what the perennial bottom feeders do.

If he is as sucky as folks claim any old rookie should be able to do similar no?

I was being facetious honestly and shouldn't have been. That is one reason why I'm a big fan of an Anthony Schwartz type guy in this year's draft. Rumored to have a 4.27 40 time, doesn't have a ton of stats out of Auburn but can fly.

 

[PikeBadger]

If he is as sucky as folks claim any old rookie should be able to do similar no?

I was being facetious honestly and shouldn't have been. That is one reason why I'm a big fan of an Anthony Schwartz type guy in this year's draft. Rumored to have a 4.27 40 time, doesn't have a ton of stats out of Auburn but can fly.

Any small school guys in the draft that run 4.3?

 

[tynimiller]

Any small school guys in the draft that run 4.3?

There is one or two that are projected to be lower than 4.4 but nothing as concrete as Schwartz's previous runnings timed settings. I'll do some digging.

 

[gbgary]

MVS...he's an enigma. big play maker. big play buster. got to keep him though...until an upgrade is available. hopefully he comes around more sooner than later. hollered at the TV when he dropped that ball.

 

[PikeBadger]

He is similar IMO to James Jones in the sense that he just isn’t a naturally intuitive football player. I think he will always be a role player. Another comparative guy I thought of is former Badger/Viking Michael Bennett. Long range blazing speed, just not naturally instinctive football players. Also, Jeff Janis and Bill Schroeder fall into this category.

I think if you took 3 studious super fans from all 31 teams and had them watch Scantling on every play in every game you’d get 3-5 of them that would say the Packers need to get rid of him.

we’ve probably got more than that in the shoutbox alone.