King is the man....

Mondio

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you just never know how the NFL season is going to play out or 5 years. Watt wouldn't have made much difference for this team the past 2 seasons. Obviously more individual impact than a guy that can't stay on the field, but with everything that transpired, he was not the missing piece.

He's still been a far better draft pick for various reasons, there is no denying that. But i don't think this team goes anywhere the past 2 seasons with him. now we're less than a week away before the real stuff starts to get ready for the upcoming season.

and I have no idea how it will all play out, but I do think our pass rush and defense will be just fine, Watt or no Watt. The past 2 seasons are history, future is undecided. What if King stays healthy and Watt blows out a patellar tendon? I'm not even going to tempt the injury gods talking about our players LOL We've seen how that can work
 
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Watt wouldn't have made much difference for this team the past 2 seasons. Obviously more individual impact than a guy that can't stay on the field, but with everything that transpired, he was not the missing piece.

He's still been a far better draft pick for various reasons, there is no denying that. But i don't think this team goes anywhere the past 2 seasons with him.

That's true when taking a look at the situation in a vacuum. Overall, the Packers having drafted significantly better over the past few years would have made a huge difference though.
 

Mondio

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That's true when taking a look at the situation in a vacuum. Overall, the Packers having drafted significantly better over the past few years would have made a huge difference though.
yes it would have. Everything changes with one small change. It's never as simple as Player X and his stats inserted of player Y and say something would happen. heck just drafting Watt would have changed a lot about this team from when and who we picked to who was actually on the field.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Let's set aside the injuries for a bit and look at King's game performance.

1) King's early success his rookie season was, like Randall as a rookie, partially a function of teams not throwing much at him, an unknown quantity with insufficient NFL tape. Consider PFF's 2017 grades where King had 50+ snaps:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-kevin-...ite-performance-of-his-young-promising-career

In the 2017 week 2 Atlanta game King was thrown at only 3 times with no completions. In the week 6 San Francisco game, that's the rookie C.J. Beathard underthrowing Goodwin on the highlight play in the above link, a QB who finished that season with a statitically meaningful 69.2 QB rating on 5 starts and 224 passes.

2) While the 5 games in the above link, averaged out, might indicate promise with some rookie lumps taken along the way, his other games were, in PFF's opinion, pretty dreadful given his final 2017 grade was a dismal 40ish. In King's second season, his grade improved to an underwhelming 59.7:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-draft-...econd-round-pick-since-2015-nfc-north-edition

"Across 685 NFL coverage snaps, King has allowed a passer rating of 96.5 while failing to record a season grade greater than 60.0."

3) It's not like the eye test says anything different. There are two troubling aspects of King's game to date that have nothing to do with his shoulder injuries. First, he lacks quickness reacting to breaks, surrendering separation on short routes, the kind of thing a Brady, Brees or a Goff will pick on all day, while having to rely on recovery speed and length on deep routes. Second, he's often looked clueless in zone, better in year 2 but still not good. These two aspects of King's game are, by contrast, not Alexander vulnerabilities. Alexander has to fine tune for lack of length but otherwise is skills toolbox is superior.

4) One comment above referenced back to draft comparisons to Richard Sherman. Well, all kinds of prospects have been compared to Sherman. King being 6'3" makes him particularly vulnerable to that comparision. Even Josh Jackson drew the same comparison. I guess if you're 6'1" or above you are susceptible to that comparison. What differentiated Sherman in his prime was his ability to slow and disrupt routes, whether knocking receivers off their desired path and disrupting timing in press coverage or riding and slowing the receiver with bumps and hand checks down the field compensating for his lack of long speed. After that, it was length and ball skills taking over. While length and ball skills make for an apt King/Sherman comparision, it's the knack for route disruption just this side of drawing flags that made Sherman what he was, and that is not an apt King comparison.

5) To digress, the Jackson/Sherman comparison goes to the other side of the coin, a comparison based on Jackson's physical play against the route. Unfortunately, Jackson early on in 2018 was on the wrong side of the flag equation. As he adjusted his game to NFL officiating, his affectiveness went down. We'll just have to wait and see how his year 2 adjustments look.

6) Another comment above stated that King needs to play off coverage presumably because of his shoulder issues. That's not an answer. Given his vulnerabilities out of NFL caliber breaks and NFL caliber deliveries, the ideal answer is to develop press skills which would then make some kind of Sherman comparison, however pale, somewhat reasonable. In the final analysis, if we can't say at some point, "King is a good press-man corner" then I highly doubt we'll be able to say, "King is a good corner." As for zone coverage, King has the equivalent of a little over half a season of snaps,. From a game experience standpoint, he's like a rookie around week 10, with a scheme change in the middle. I'm willing to give a partial pass on his zone skills under those circumstances, but it's something to keep an eye on and the results so far have not been auspicious.

7) Another comment offered the observation that the injuries are not King's fault. I suppose if this is a case of inherently loose shoulders that's true in an it-is-what-it-is kinda way. That is, of course, irrelevant just as it is irrelevant if we say that a player has insufficient talent to make the jump to the pros. That's not that guy's fault either. But there is one think King can do to limit the chances of shoulder reinjury. Consider the following 2017 highlight tape:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

On of the things we like about King is his agressiveness in attacking the line of scrimage on runs and screens as evidenced in this tape. However, one aspect of that aggressiveness is his shoulder tackling when he's able to get a bead on the ball carrier. The tape shows he's a good ankle tackler when pursuit or the angle requires it. King needs to purge himself of the inclination to try to light a guy up when the opportunity arises. He needs to consistently target low as a necessary "business decision".

8) King's most admirable trait is his willingness to play through injury. By his count he popped the one shoulder some ten times during his rookie season, had it popped back in, then went back on the field. Put him on the warrior list with Bulaga. There's a good chance one of those shoulder hits in the above tape put him in the sideline tent for one of those interventions, then back on the field.

In summary, King is not "the man". Performance and injuries tell a different story. Concluding that he is relies on the most glowing of draft scouting reports while ignoring what has happened over the past two seasons. Might he become "the man"? I suppose it is possible but returns so far suggest otherwise. If there is "the man" in this corner group, Alexander is the clear leading candidate.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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Let's set aside the injuries for a bit and look at King's game performance.

1) King's early success his rookie season was, like Randall as a rookie, partially a function of teams not throwing much at him, an unknown quantity with insufficient NFL tape. Consider PFF's 2017 grades where King had 50+ snaps:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-kevin-...ite-performance-of-his-young-promising-career

In the 2017 week 2 Atlanta game King was thrown at only 3 times with no completions. In the week 6 San Francisco game, that's the rookie C.J. Beathard underthrowing Goodwin on the highlight play in the above link, a QB who finished that season with a statitically meaningful 69.2 QB rating on 5 starts and 224 passes.

2) While the 5 games in the above link, averaged out, might indicate promise with some rookie lumps taken along the way, his other games were, in PFF's opinion, pretty dreadful given his final 2017 grade was a dismal 40ish. In King's second season, his grade improved to an underwhelming 59.7:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-draft-...econd-round-pick-since-2015-nfc-north-edition

"Across 685 NFL coverage snaps, King has allowed a passer rating of 96.5 while failing to record a season grade greater than 60.0."

3) It's not like the eye test says anything different. There are two troubling aspects of King's game to date that have nothing to do with his shoulder injuries. First, he lacks quickness reacting to breaks, surrendering separation on short routes, the kind of thing a Brady, Brees or a Goff will pick on all day, while having to rely on recovery speed and length on deep routes. Second, he's often looked clueless in zone, better in year 2 but still not good. These two aspects of King's game are, by contrast, not Alexander vulnerabilities. Alexander has to fine tune for lack of length but otherwise is skills toolbox is superior.

4) One comment above referenced back to draft comparisons to Richard Sherman. Well, all kinds of prospects have been compared to Sherman. King being 6'3" makes him particularly vulnerable to that comparision. Even Josh Jackson drew the same comparison. I guess if you're 6'1" or above you are susceptible to that comparison. What differentiated Sherman in his prime was his ability to slow and disrupt routes, whether knocking receivers off their desired path and disrupting timing in press coverage or riding and slowing the receiver with bumps and hand checks down the field compensating for his lack of long speed. After that, it was length and ball skills taking over. While length and ball skills make for an apt King/Sherman comparision, it's the knack for route disruption just this side of drawing flags that made Sherman what he was, and that is not an apt King comparison.

5) To digress, the Jackson/Sherman comparison goes to the other side of the coin, a comparison based on Jackson's physical play against the route. Unfortunately, Jackson early on in 2018 was on the wrong side of the flag equation. As he adjusted his game to NFL officiating, his affectiveness went down. We'll just have to wait and see how his year 2 adjustments look.

6) Another comment above stated that King needs to play off coverage presumably because of his shoulder issues. That's not an answer. Given his vulnerabilities out of NFL caliber breaks and NFL caliber deliveries, the ideal answer is to develop press skills which would then make some kind of Sherman comparison, however pale, somewhat reasonable. In the final analysis, if we can't say at some point, "King is a good press-man corner" then I highly doubt we'll be able to say, "King is a good corner." As for zone coverage, King has the equivalent of a little over half a season of snaps,. From a game experience standpoint, he's like a rookie around week 10, with a scheme change in the middle. I'm willing to give a partial pass on his zone skills under those circumstances, but it's something to keep an eye on and the results so far have not been auspicious.

7) Another comment offered the observation that the injuries are not King's fault. I suppose if this is a case of inherently loose shoulders that's true in an it-is-what-it-is kinda way. That is, of course, irrelevant just as it is irrelevant if we say that a player has insufficient talent to make the jump to the pros. That's not that guy's fault either. But there is one think King can do to limit the chances of shoulder reinjury. Consider the following 2017 highlight tape:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

On of the things we like about King is his agressiveness in attacking the line of scrimage on runs and screens as evidenced in this tape. However, one aspect of that aggressiveness is his shoulder tackling when he's able to get a bead on the ball carrier. The tape shows he's a good ankle tackler when pursuit or the angle requires it. King needs to purge himself of the inclination to try to light a guy up when the opportunity arises. He needs to consistently target low as a necessary "business decision".

8) King's most admirable trait is his willingness to play through injury. By his count he popped the one shoulder some ten times during his rookie season, had it popped back in, then went back on the field. Put him on the warrior list with Bulaga. There's a good chance one of those shoulder hits in the above tape put him in the sideline tent for one of those interventions, then back on the field.

In summary, King is not "the man". Performance and injuries tell a different story. Concluding that he is relies on the most glowing of draft scouting reports while ignoring what has happened over the past two seasons. Might he become "the man"? I suppose it is possible but returns so far suggest otherwise. If there is "the man" in this corner group, Alexander is the clear leading candidate.

Good stuff, thanks. Jives with my gut feeling and observations about the guy as well. I think a lot of us WANT and NEED him to be "the man", but I'm not banking on it, nor should the Packers. I also don't think they drafted both Alexander and Jackson last year, if they were convinced that he was "the man". Possibly the best case scenario for the Packers, in regards to King, he can stay healthy, they can get a full evaluation of his actual NFL skills and after he signs his second contract, he begins to make his climb to Pro Bowl Caliber. :)
 
H

HardRightEdge

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I also don't think they drafted both Alexander and Jackson last year, if they were convinced that he was "the man".
And Gutekunst brought Tramon Williams back. I wouldn't go so far as to say the 3 additions were a reflection of throwing in the towel on King. Not to pick on you specifically, but I read a lot of stuff here where commentors come at the project like it's 10 or 20 years ago. When it comes to cornerbacks, in what has become a 70-80% nickel/dime game along with the rule changes, it takes 3 CBs to tango, and you better have a 4th. who can play some since, as with WRs, you can't expect to go 48 for 48 in starter games played.

The CB defensive snap counts in 2017 were:

Randall: 721 - traded before the 2018 draft
House: 659 - injured, not re-signed in 2018 free agency
Hawkins: 407 - waived in final cut downs going into the 2018 season
King: 382
Rollins: 139 - attempted coversion to safety in 2018; injured again; IR before 2018 started and released with injury settlement
Pipkins: 122 - traded for Morrison around 10 days prior to the 2018 season
Gunter: 2 - one-time starter not up to the task; cut early in 2017
Donatello Brown: 1 - need we say more?
Goodson: 0 - If we could ever call a 6th. round pick a bust, this would be one of them; PUP then IR without playing a game in 2017; released in final cutdowns in 2018

I don't even think the comments following these names are even necessary. All of these guys going into camp in 2017 were on the bubble by the end of that season and were gone by the start of 2018, and it is not like any were cap casualties or even remotely close.

Yeah, even if you thought King was the real deal going into 2018, this team still needed 3 new CB faces who could play. Now we have 2 high capital spends at safety. It is a recognition that unless you're a "just outscore 'em" team like the 2018 Rams and Chiefs, or the 2011 Packers for that matter, you need to be strong in the secondary if you want to go anywhere. It's probably worth noting those 3 teams had vulnerabilities in the secondary, which is an understatement. None won the ultimate prize. What can we say about the 2018 Patriots? "Strong seconday".
 

Heyjoe4

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This dude is a special tallent. He is what we need to start shutting down offenses . Its been our weakness for many years... Our offense is explosive. But when it comes down to it, other good offenses can throw caution to the wind, and take big chunks when the game is on the line... Unacceptable.

Drafting king first is like laying a cornerstone. (I Havnt forgot Jones either. Dude has a fire burning and we need to throw some gas on it imo) And then Jackson/Alexander to back him up. Following it up with Savage this year...
Amos and williams in free agency.

Our secondary will be great without king.... But with king, this secondary will be shutting down qbs...

It starts and ends with our offensive line protecting #12. The defense lacks beef on the line. But has much more speed than I'm used to seeing. I'm eager to see the young guys step up and prove me wrong.

But if we do manage to put in a healthy year from our lines. They will be very good. And that's when this secondary will be on display...

Josh Jones has to see there isn't a cam chancellor on this defense... Thats his calling imo. Take that lb frame on a seek and destroy mission every play. Enough over thinking tweener bull crap. Bring that fire and light this mother up....

And king... He needs to not crush everything he sees. He needs to save that for playoffs. Go out there and run with the big dogs for a while.... Play ball king. Beat them at their own game. And when the playoffs come .... Then get nasty.
If King does stay healthy and performs to potential, that would be a bonus. He has to prove he can beat the injury bug first. But you’re right, he has all the tools otherwise. Now it’s time to produce.

As for the DL being “light” - I don’t see that as a negative. Clark and Daniels will still anchor the interior, and along with an improved OLB group, there will be a lot of opportunities for rushing from the interior, something better suited to a lighter, faster DL. Actually I think the DL is the strongest position group, at least going into camp.

And a solid rush, from inside, outside, or both, makes the job of the secondary easier. So I’m expecting more sacks, more hits and hurries, and more INTs.
 

Heyjoe4

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And Gutekunst brought Tramon Williams back. I wouldn't go so far as to say the 3 additions were a reflection of throwing in the towel on King. Not to pick on you specifically, but I read a lot of stuff here where commentors come at the project like it's 10 or 20 years ago. When it comes to cornerbacks, in what has become a 70-80% nickel/dime game along with the rule changes, it takes 3 CBs to tango, and you better have a 4th. who can play some since, as with WRs, you can't expect to go 48 for 48 in starter games played.

The CB defensive snap counts in 2017 were:

Randall: 721 - traded before the 2018 draft
House: 659 - injured, not re-signed in 2018 free agency
Hawkins: 407 - waived in final cut downs going into the 2018 season
King: 382
Rollins: 139 - attempted coversion to safety in 2018; injured again; IR before 2018 started and released with injury settlement
Pipkins: 122 - traded for Morrison around 10 days prior to the 2018 season
Gunter: 2 - one-time starter not up to the task; cut early in 2017
Donatello Brown: 1 - need we say more?
Goodson: 0 - If we could ever call a 6th. round pick a bust, this would be one of them; PUP then IR without playing a game in 2017; released in final cutdowns in 2018

I don't even think the comments following these names are even necessary. All of these guys going into camp in 2017 were on the bubble by the end of that season and were gone by the start of 2018, and it is not like any were cap casualties or even remotely close.

Yeah, even if you thought King was the real deal going into 2018, this team still needed 3 new CB faces who could play. Now we have 2 high capital spends at safety. It is a recognition that unless you're a "just outscore 'em" team like the 2018 Rams and Chiefs, or the 2011 Packers for that matter, you need to be strong in the secondary if you want to go anywhere. It's probably worth noting those 3 teams had vulnerabilities in the secondary, which is an understatement. None won the ultimate prize. What can we say about the 2018 Patriots? "Strong seconday".
I’ve always believed it takes a strong D, across the board, to win a SB. The CB group is better, but outside of maybe Alexander, there’s a lot to prove. I expected more from Jackson last year, and King was again injured. The improved DL should help with more sacks, forces, fumbles, hits, and INTs.
 
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HardRightEdge

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I’ve always believed it takes a strong D, across the board, to win a SB. The CB group is better, but outside of maybe Alexander, there’s a lot to prove. I expected more from Jackson last year, and King was again injured. The improved DL should help with more sacks, forces, fumbles, hits, and INTs.
Teams with decent or merely average defenses, some in New England, have won Super Bowls.

I'll say this much. If I have a choice of spending considerable capital on either Donald/Suh as with the Rams last season or Gilmore/McCourty as with the Patriots, I'm taking the latter. It also doesn't hurt that Belichick plugged in UDFA J.C. Jackson at corner late last season and the guy took off.

If we're going to go gaga over Mahomes, along with a whole generation of QBs who can use their legs and extend plays, then we better like secondaries who can keep a lid on it.
 
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Heyjoe4

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Teams with decent or merely average defenses, some in New England, have won Super Bowls.

I'll say this much. If I have a choice of spending considerable capital on either Donald/Suh as with the Rams last season or Gilmore/McCourty as with the Patriots, I'm taking the latter. It also doesn't hurt that Belichick plugged in UDFA J.C. Jackson a corner late last season and the guy took off.

If we're going to go gaga over Mahomes, along with a whole generation of QBs who can use their legs and extend plays, then we better like secondaries who can keep a lid on it.
Yes, not all SB winners have top Ds, most do. And I’d take your deal as well. NE keeps winning because Bellickek is so good at execution. That’s why he could plug in an UDFA like Jackson last year and get him to produce. How many times have we seen him do that with other position groups, like WR.

And yeah, if college is gonna keep producing guys like Mahomes, a strong secondary, including the S group, is a must. As for GB, Gluten did all he could with the holes he had to address the glaring weaknesses. Still, the secondary is a work in progress, and much of their success will depend on guys like King, Jackson, and even Alexander stepping it up, and Amos and Savage living up to their billing. I’m hopeful, but will believe it when I see it.
 

Mondio

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Regardless of how good King is or was, I think there's a very good chance we take Alexander and Jackson again last year. We NEEDED secondary guys, we had none. 1 isn't enough. It's a passing league and you don't build a secondary in an offseason. Even if King was awesome, we needed more. I think he can be good, but he's not the "the man", I have no illusions of that.
 

Heyjoe4

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Regardless of how good King is or was, I think there's a very good chance we take Alexander and Jackson again last year. We NEEDED secondary guys, we had none. 1 isn't enough. It's a passing league and you don't build a secondary in an offseason. Even if King was awesome, we needed more. I think he can be good, but he's not the "the man", I have no illusions of that.
Agreed. Prior draft failures at CB (I’m thinking of Randall and Collins specifically) gave Gluten no choice but to take both Alexander AND Jackson. I actually thought Jackson would have the better season as he was a ball hawk at Iowa. But Iowa ain’t the NFL, and Jackson may still grow into that ball hawk. Alexander had a great rookie campaign.

Hopefully the players we have are the ones we’ll keep so we don’t have to spend so many early picks on D. Hindsight is 20/20, and Watt would have been the better choice than King, but GB was desperate for CB help, so the pick was the right one. And who knows, maybe King surprises us.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Yes, not all SB winners have top Ds, most do. And I’d take your deal as well. NE keeps winning because Bellickek is so good at execution. That’s why he could plug in an UDFA like Jackson last year and get him to produce. How many times have we seen him do that with other position groups, like WR.

And yeah, if college is gonna keep producing guys like Mahomes, a strong secondary, including the S group, is a must. As for GB, Gluten did all he could with the holes he had to address the glaring weaknesses. Still, the secondary is a work in progress, and much of their success will depend on guys like King, Jackson, and even Alexander stepping it up, and Amos and Savage living up to their billing. I’m hopeful, but will believe it when I see it.
Part of Belichick's success is he is at the leading edge of trends in the game, highly adaptable and agnostic with respect to scheme. He puts the pieces together for the way the game is played at the moment, not the way it was played a decade ago.

It's not just Mahomes. The days of immobile pocket QBs that must be surrounded with top O-Lines to produce are going by the boards. The young breed of high picks all use their legs. Wilson bent the curve. Even Goff, a guy who isn't normally associated with extending plays, held the ball last season only a tiny fraction less than Rodgers by a couple of different measures as discussed in another thread.

I can't possibly have any complaints with Gutekunst's 2018 approach:
  • Going into free agency, my admonition was to bypass all those older fading names people are apt to throw around. Instead, I wanted "go young or go home", signing guys in their prime to second contracts, players that give the team a multi-year runway for the rebuild. Those players would not be cheap; so be it. The only question is how many he'd sign and how much that would constrain cap space going forward. Perhaps there was a little too much of Gutekunst's, "This is Green Bay, Wisconsin. It is always "win now", by my lights. But it will work out if it turns out he's stacked drafts.
  • Given needs and seeing the Bears were cap strapped at the time, Amos was first on my list of FA targets. Check.
  • While having no specific name in mind, a second contract FA OLB was high on my list. Check and doublecheck.
  • Gary was my choice with the first pick until Z. Smith was signed, thinking Gary was a redundancy. With the plan to play Z. Smith inside at 3-tech (and perhaps eventually Gary in that spot), with tons of nickel/dime snaps available for those moves, the pick made sense.
  • I liked Savage but discounted him as a pick assuming Amos would be set at FS, thinking more about SS types down the board. As it turns out, the evident plan for Amos is as the new Morgan Burnett. I won't complain at this juncture.
  • I did not expect a 4th. FA name given the cap outlook in 2020, but I'm not going to get in a twist over Billy Turner, a guy along with the decent Jenkins pick, that shore up a weak OG group. Turner, they say, can play RT, which might be the kicker that led to this signing, with Bulaga always a question mark and in his contract year.
The only Gutekunst move which I viewed as a particular misstep when it happened was the signing of Graham to that contract, one of those aging, declining stars where that good money is not likely to yield performance in kind.

There's one other major move I'd like to see that may still come to fruition as the defense evolves through camp and preseason: trade Daniels or, if there are no takers, release him. I see a player who showed decline and then had a season ending injury over the last year and a half, not a good combination, whose role is looking increasingly rotational. He's not worth his $10.7 mil cap number or, more relevantly, his $7.6 mil in cap savings if traded or released. Injuries lead to desperation, and somebody might be desperate enough to take on that $7.6 mil base salary for some minor compensation. It should come down to whether the guys on hand make the question, "who else ya got?", moot as we move through the process.

That $7.6 mil in savings added to the cap carryover kitty will come in handy next season where cap will be tight as the cap deferals in these 4 FA contracts start hitting home hard.

I'm looking for the rebuild to come to fruition in 2020 if many of the Lake Woebegone children really do turn out to be above average. Green Bay was the high bidder for those free agents, so the upside assessments have to be right to get performance in line with pay. Keeping Daniels for the 2019 duration would be more of a "win now" leaning than I would go for, but given all of my other agreements with the Gutekunst approach it's another issue over which I'm not going to get is in a twist.

It sure beats Thompson's approach and player selection over last 5 years or so as the overall quality of the roster gradually declined to non-competitiveness.
 
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Heyjoe4

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Part of Belichick's success is he is at the leading edge of trends in the game, highly adaptable and agnostic with respect to scheme. He puts the pieces together for the way the game is played at the moment, not the way it was played a decade ago.

It's not just Mahomes. The days of immobile pocket QBs that must be surrounded with top O-Lines to produce are going by the boards. The young breed of high picks all use their legs. Wilson bent the curve. Even Goff, a guy who isn't normally associated with extending plays, held the ball last season only a tiny fraction less than Rodgers by a couple of different measures as discussed in another thread.

I can't possibly have any complaints with Gutekunst's 2018 approach:
  • Going into free agency, my admonition was to bypass all those older fading names people are apt to throw around. Instead, I wanted "go young or go home", signing guys in their prime to second contracts, players that give the team a multi-year runway for the rebuild. Those players would not be cheap; so be it. The only question is how many he signed and how much that constrains cap space going forward. Perhaps a little too much of Gutekunst's, "This is Green Bay, Wisconsin. It is always "win now", by my lights. But it will work out if it turns out he's stacked drafts.
  • Given needs and seeing the Bears were cap strapped, Amos was first on my list of FA targets. Check.
  • While having no specific name in mind, a second contract FA OLB was high on my list. Check and doublecheck.
  • Gary was my choice with the first pick until Z. Smith was signed, then thinking Gary was a redundancy. With the plan to play Z. Smith inside at 3-tech (and perhaps eventually Gary in that spot), with tons of nickel/dime snaps available for those moves, the pick made sense.
  • I liked Savage but discounted him as a pick assuming Amos would be set at FS, thinking more about SS types down the board. As it turns out, the evident plan for Amos is as the new Morgan Burnett. I won't complain at this juncture.
  • I did not expect a 4th. FA name given the cap outlook in 2020, but I'm not going to get in a twist over Billy Turner, a guy along with the decent Jenkins pick, that shore up a weak OG group. Turner, they say, can play RT, which might be the kicker that led to this signing, with Bulaga always a question mark and in his contract year.
The only Gutekunst move where I viewed as a particular misstep when it happened was the signing of Graham to that contract, one of those aging, declining stars where that good money is not likely to yield performance in kind.

There's one other major move I'd like to see that may still come to fruition as the defense evolves through camp and preseason: trade Daniels or, if there are no takers, release him. I see a player who showed decline and then had a season ending injury, not a good combination, whose role is looking increasingly rotational. He's not worth his $10.7 mil cap number or, more relevantly, his $7.6 mil in cap savings if traded or released. Injuries lead to desperation, and somebody might be desperate enough to take on that $7.6 mil base salary for some minor compensation. It should come down to whether the guys on hand make the question, "who else ya got?", moot as we move through the process.

That $7.6 mil in savings added to the cap carryover kitty will come in handy next season where cap will be tight as the cap deferals in these 4 FA contracts start hitting home hard.

I'm looking for the rebuild to come to fruition in 2020 if all of the Lake Woebegone children really do turn out to be above average. Green Bay was the high bidder for those free agents, so the upside assessment have to be right to get performance in line with pay. Keeping Daniels for the 2019 duration would be more of a "win now" leaning than I would go for, but given all of my other agreements with the Gutekunst approach it's another issue over which I'm not going to get is in a twist.

It sure beats Thompson's approach and player selection over last 5 years or so as the overall quality of the roster gradually declined to non-competitiveness.
Excellent analysis, and agree with all. I thought it was a mistake bringing Graham back, but hey, otherwise Gluten did very well this off season with personnel moves. Love the “Lake Woebegone Children!”
 

Ogsponge

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In what world is the OP living in? King is the man? Everything about King screams bust, I have not seen one glimmer of hope from this guy yet.
 

Do7

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In what world is the OP living in? King is the man? Everything about King screams bust, I have not seen one glimmer of hope from this guy yet.
You're being way over dramatic. King has been far from a bust. -_-
 

Pokerbrat2000

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You're being way over dramatic. King has been far from a bust. -_-

I would also say that he has been far from being "The Man" and closer to being a bust.

I get it, we are Packer fans and we hope that he stays healthy and proves he was worthy of the draft pick, but until he does that, I have a really hard time saying he's much of anything. If he were to walk away from Football today or get injured and not play another down, would he be a bust?
 
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HardRightEdge

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Love the “Lake Woebegone Children!”
I drag out that reference every year, a couple of times between the draft and opening day, when an inordnate number of players seem to be projected toward the top of their ceiling, King being "the man" a case in point.

I don't care what team we're talking about, you need more of the "children" approaching that level than not to win a championship. There are a lot of new faces to go with the old that need to get toward those ceilings. It does happen, and those teams are solid championship contenders. Will this be one of them? We'll just have to wait and see.
 

Heyjoe4

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I drag out that reference every year, a couple of times between the draft and opening day, when an inordnate number of players seem to be projected toward the top of their ceiling, King being "the man" a case in point.

I don't care what team we're talking about, you need more of the "children" approaching that level than not to win a championship. There are a lot of new faces to go with the old that need to get toward those ceilings. It does happen, and those teams are solid championship contenders. Will this be one of them? We'll just have to wait and see.
It still cracked me up. But hey, now at least I have a name for the wannabes.

And you’re right, they’re on every team, and every year a few of them do step up as they never have. And then there are a few stragglers, UDFAs mostly, who show up out of nowhere. Not that Raven Greene is All Pro, but he seems like one of those guys who came outta nowhere and played well above expectations.
 
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HardRightEdge

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It still cracked me up. But hey, now at least I have a name for the wannabes.

And you’re right, they’re on every team, and every year a few of them do step up as they never have. And then there are a few stragglers, UDFAs mostly, who show up out of nowhere. Not that Raven Greene is All Pro, but he seems like one of those guys who came outta nowhere and played well above expectations.
One example where the Lake Woebegones were in fact so far above average as to be difference makers would be New Orleans drafting Lattimore and Kumara in 2017. And these kinds of wins are gifts that keep on giving for 4 years under cheap rookie contracts.

I'm not talking about the Raven Greens of the world. Stacking drafts clustered in a 4 year period that yields a sufficient number of star players and solid starters, all on cheap rookie deals, is where the real value resides.
 

Heyjoe4

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One example where the Lake Woebegones were in fact so far above average as to be difference makers would be New Orleans drafting Lattimore and Kumara in 2017. And these kinds of wins are gifts that keep on giving for 4 years under cheap rookie contracts.

I'm not talking about the Raven Greens of the world. Stacking drafts clustered in a 4 year period that yields a sufficient number of star players and solid starters, all on cheap rookie deals, is where the real value resides.
That was an incredible draft class for NOs. And yeah, that’s value, getting every-down, big-time producers on rookie deals. GB could use a few.
 
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HardRightEdge

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That was an incredible draft class for NOs. And yeah, that’s value, getting every-down, big-time producers on rookie deals. GB could use a few.
I didn't even mention some of the guys in surrounding drafts that make for a 4 year cluster of good cheap players New Orleans. Or you could look at KC with Mahomes, Hunt and Hill in 2 consecutive drafts, among others, Hunt getting caught on video and cut notwithstanding.

Unless you are Bill Belichick, packing good players into your roster from the previous 4 drafts is the key to winning. That's gives you a lot of good cheap players that frees up cap for tactical free agent acquisitions.

Gutekunst went wild in free agency because Thompson left him d*mn little in good, cheap rookie contract players to supplement. This is not the optimal approach, but there really wasn't a lot of choice. To make it work he's going to have stack his own drafts while these FAs are still in their prime years because cap space going forward to 2020 and 2021 is going to be tight with all these rich second contracts.
 

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You're being way over dramatic. King has been far from a bust. -_-
Over dramatic would be saying he is the biggest bust in the history of the Packers. At this point, until he proves otherwise, he is a bust. Could it change? Sure but that remains to be seen.
 

Heyjoe4

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Over dramatic would be saying he is the biggest bust in the history of the Packers. At this point, until he proves otherwise, he is a bust. Could it change? Sure but that remains to be seen.
Well the biggest bust will probably always be Tony Mandarich, but I digress.

King has to prove himself. And a smart betting person wouldn’t place a big wager on him. Someone referred to him as having “soft shoulders.” I don’t intend for that to sound mean, just a fact. Now maybe he heals up this year and plays lights out. We all want that to happen. But wanting something to happen and expecting something to happen are two different things.

I hope Osponge is right and can come back in January and say I told you so to all of us doubters!
 

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