Free Agency Thread

[Heyjoe4]

Watson could potentially have a OBJ-like career.

Great production when healthy, obsolete when he isn't.

GB has been utilizing him as a downfield threat, but at 6' 4" around 215-220 lbs, he could be quite effective as a blocker and working the middle of the field opposite Reed.

When he's not 100%, he doesn't see the field, and that's a disservice to the other WRs that battle game in and game out.

This 3rd year is vital, and will determine his future and (critically) his perception around the league.

Agreed. This season, his third, he has to 1) stay healthy and 2) produce if he is going to have a career in the NFL. His hamstring injuries have occurred, in the same leg, for the last three years. If he and the medical team can't find a solution, I'm afraid there is nowhere for him to go in the sport.

 

[Heyjoe4]

By like a round. He was a very athletic and productive college prospect that most saw an early Day 3 pick minimum (4th/5th). That young man was being utilized out the gate and then his rookie year injury happened. It has also been confirmed he and Aaron were NOT compatible with each other. Sure I didn't see a 3rd round grade, but I fully expected Gute/GB was going to do all they could to give MLF a H Back type for his offense as it is used a lot.

I wouldn't be shocked one bit to see Deguara see continued mild success and be an NFL H Back role TE for years to come...sometimes you just stall or both sides need a new environment.

I happen to believe Deguara was everything MLF wanted, but simply put wasn't worth investing further in value wise. Between Dillon and other rostered players or draftees they felt they could easily replace his role.

Yeah a roster spot is a roster spot. If MLF feels like Dillon can do what DeGuara was supposed to do, he saves a roster spot.

 

[Heyjoe4]

And therein lies the biggest problem. Most everyone, even at the moment when this pick was made, was commenting how it was way too high for him.

Each year I'll sort focus on who I think the Packers will take in rounds 1, 2, and 3 - mostly round 1. That's about all my memory can handle, and really, rounds 4-7 involve guys I'm just too lazy to research.

I look at a lotta mock drafts, and don't recall or remember DeGuara's name as a round 3 guy in 2020. Doesn't really mean anything, I'm no draft expert. But using my unscientific "system" - drafting a guy in the 3rd I never heard about hits me as a big reach.

And then there's that whole silly "3rd round curse" associated with the Packers. I don't buy that.

 

[PikeBadger]

That was the guy/pick that we were talking about, yes.

Well apparently, Gutekunst really valued Christian Watson in order to make that trade up the way he did.

 

[PikeBadger]

Each year I'll sort focus on who I think the Packers will take in rounds 1, 2, and 3 - mostly round 1. That's about all my memory can handle, and really, rounds 4-7 involve guys I'm just too lazy to research.

I look at a lotta mock drafts, and don't recall or remember DeGuara's name as a round 3 guy in 2020. Doesn't really mean anything, I'm no draft expert. But using my unscientific "system" - drafting a guy in the 3rd I never heard about hits me as a big reach.

And then there's that whole silly "3rd round curse" associated with the Packers. I don't buy that.

Imo mock drafts done by national guys are useless. They know less about the Packers than most of us here imo.

 

[PikeBadger]

That draft was just crazy to begin with. Drafting Love, Dillon and Deguara with their first 3 selections, had everyone going off the deepend.

It was hilarious indeed.

 

[El Guapo]

They neglect the WR/TE room because they didn't care or did they just decide not to throw valuable resources at WR/TE because the biggest barrier to a WR/TE's success in GB was in how they would mesh from a personality standpoint with Rodgers so why expend capital on a 1st if Aaron wasn't going to like a guy and basically freeze them out. Easier to stomach with a 7th rounder or UDFA.

IMO I don't think that either of those assessments are correct. There were two main reasons that the Packers GMs did not draft WRs high in the draft during Rodgers time:
1) The biggest barrier to us progressing to and winning the Super Bowl was always defense, so our drafts focused on improving the defense.
a. Thompson used 9 of 12 first round draft picks on defense
b. Gutekunst has used 7 of 8 first round draft picks on defense
2) Rodgers almost always had elite WRs. Part of it is that the Packers found good players in the mid-rounds and part of it is that Rodgers made them greater:
a. Devante Adams, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

2) Rodgers almost always had elite WRs. Part of it is that the Packers found good players in the mid-rounds and part of it is that Rodgers made them greater:
a. Devante Adams, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley

While I agree that Rodgers had quite a few really good receivers early in his career, by about 2017/18, the only one left was Davante Adams and he was just blossoming into a great WR at that point.

The players I bolded were not "mid-round" pics:

Adams: 2nd #53
Cobb: 2nd #64
Nelson: 2nd: #36
Jennings: 2nd: #52

Jones and Finley were 3rd rounders and Driver a 7th round gem.

 

[El Guapo]

Picking him in the 3rd instead of the 4th doesn't matter as much as people feel. Folks only feel this way because the draft is split into 3 days...and those nights between seem to ooze somekind of value that intensifies the difference between the last pick of the 3rd and the first pick of the 4th more than any two picks in the draft.

Agreed. People need to view drafts differently. Each team starts with seven draft choices and a pool of money for rookie contracts. It really doesn't matter if it's your top picks or low picks that end up being your good players. What really matters is that you beat the average, which you can see below from one study is only about 30%. So if you whiff on your top picks but continually draft a bunch of Tom Bradys, Shannon Sharpes, Richard Dents, and Donald Drivers in the low rounds....what does it matter? The goal is to ace each draft, but the bar is set at getting at least 2-3 starters.

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

The author studied 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Imo mock drafts done by national guys are useless. They know less about the Packers than most of us here imo.

I'm still seeing mock drafts out there saying that we need a left tackle because Bakhtiari may not be back this year and we have nobody to replace him. I half expect one of these national "experts" to say that we need to draft a sucessor to Chad Clifton.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Watson could potentially have a OBJ-like career.

Who's OBJ?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Who's OBJ?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Heyjoe4]

Imo mock drafts done by national guys are useless. They know less about the Packers than most of us here imo.

The "experts" don't seem to know much about any of the teams in their mock drafts. That's one reason why those mocks are often so inaccurate. I'm only interested in who I think the Packers will take, and even that interest is pretty much limited to the first round.

Mock drafts are like March Madness brackets. After the first round, maybe two, they are all out of whack by what has actually happened.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm still seeing mock drafts out there saying that we need a left tackle because Bakhtiari may not be back this year and we have nobody to replace him. I half expect one of these national "experts" to say that we need to draft a sucessor to Chad Clifton.

The experts never took into consideration the late-season play of the rookie LT. I'm pretty sure CB will be the Packers' first pick, but hey, who knows? And yeah, they will take some O Linemen, but probably later in the draft.

 

[PikeBadger]

The experts never took into consideration the late-season play of the rookie LT. I'm pretty sure CB will be the Packers' first pick, but hey, who knows? And yeah, they will take some O Linemen, but probably later in the draft.

Wanna bet on that first pick. I'm willing to make a small wager that the 1st pick will not be CB.

 

[PikeBadger]

I'd guess that if some of the guys in the Packers war room did a mock draft for the Packers, many wouldn't get more than half of the names to match reality.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Wanna bet on that first pick. I'm willing to make a small wager that the 1st pick will not be CB.

That's fine, but offer an alternative rather than just disagreeing. What do you expect will happen? Even "I don't know" is a valid answer.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'd guess that if some of the guys in the Packers war room did a mock draft for the Packers, many wouldn't get more than half of the names to match reality.

Half would be a major accomplishment. Look at this forum. People disagree with each other more than they agree IMO. And that's fine.

 

[tynimiller]

Wanna bet on that first pick. I'm willing to make a small wager that the 1st pick will not be CB.

If this friendly wager happens - a declaration of if DeJean qualifies or not needs set. I see him and many do as a safety not a CB in the NFL.

 

[PikeBadger]

Agreed. People need to view drafts differently. Each team starts with seven draft choices and a pool of money for rookie contracts. It really doesn't matter if it's your top picks or low picks that end up being your good players. What really matters is that you beat the average, which you can see below from one study is only about 30%. So if you whiff on your top picks but continually draft a bunch of Tom Bradys, Shannon Sharpes, Richard Dents, and Donald Drivers in the low rounds....what does it matter? The goal is to ace each draft, but the bar is set at getting at least 2-3 starters.

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

The author studied 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

• 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
• 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
• 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
• 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
• 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
• 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
• 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

This is an absolutely fabulous contribution to this forum. Reality trumps the Fire Gutekunst crowd once again.

 

[PikeBadger]

If this friendly wager happens - a declaration of if DeJean qualifies or not needs set. I see him and many do as a safety not a CB in the NFL.

Me too

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wanna bet on that first pick. I'm willing to make a small wager that the 1st pick will not be CB.

If I was betting on that first Packer pick, I would put the most money on an offensive lineman. 2nd bet might be on defensive lineman. 3rd bet on a DB. 4th on Edge, 5th on ILB.

The positions I would bet on as no way in the 1st: LS, P, K, QB, RB, TE, WR

 

[tynimiller]

I personally order likelihood as edge, outside CB, OL

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I personally order likelihood as edge, outside CB, OL

"EDGE" is a tough one with this draft. With the shift to a "4-3", what do we now call edge? A guy on the edge of the DL, that puts his hand in the dirt? One of the 2 OLB's?

I realize that we will not be always seeing 4 on the DL and the linebackers, but that is just it, what will the defense look like and how much different will it look from that we saw under Barry?

Also, what current Packers can play this "EDGE" position? Gary, Smith, LVS, Enagbare?

 

[McKnowledge]

Also, what current Packers can play this "EDGE" position? Gary, Smith, LVS, Enagbare?

All of them should play EDGE.

Eastablish a rotation based on snaps and situation.

Smith is the oldest, limit his snaps and keep him "fresh" throughout the season.

You cannot have any of them out in coverage...NO!!!

GB has a lot of picks, and I would prioritize O-Line, LBs, and DBs.

If a player is attainable (within reason), then go get him.