Breaking Down the NFC North, 2024

[Schultz]

It's a pretty weird conversation for sure IMO.

This season Love was:

#12 in "traditional" passer rating
#5 in QBR
#5 in ANY/A
#4 in NY/A
#10 in AY/A
#5 in Y/A
#4 in Y/C
#6 in TD percentage
#3 in sack percentage

And those are all very good, borderline ELITE numbers...

But, also...

#33 in completion percentage
#19 in yards
#11 in TDs
#13 in pass success rate
#16 in yards/game
Tied for 4th-most INT
And interestingly (to me) #31 in completions per game...and #30 in attempts per game. (Which is probably more of a coaching decision)

So it's actually really kind of hard for me to judge. The "bulk" stats (yards accumulated, total TDs and INTs) are honestly pretty middling. The advanced metrics are very, very good. I would think that with more passing volume it'd be reasonable to assume that the volume-based stats would go up, as well (i.e. if Love is generally a top-5 QB in yards per attempt and its various permutations, with more attempts you'd expect to see yardage go up exponentially).

With all that in mind then I guess my super quick surface-level/"gut" analysis of it would lead me to ask...why didn't we let Love loose a bit more?

Josh Jacobs.

 

[rmontro]

Well, the Bears got Ben Johnson, so they got their wish. This is bad because it makes the Bears better, but hopefully it signals the beginning of the breakup of the Lions.

 

[Sanguine camper]

It's a pretty weird conversation for sure IMO.

This season Love was:

#12 in "traditional" passer rating
#5 in QBR
#5 in ANY/A
#4 in NY/A
#10 in AY/A
#5 in Y/A
#4 in Y/C
#6 in TD percentage
#3 in sack percentage

And those are all very good, borderline ELITE numbers...

But, also...

#33 in completion percentage
#19 in yards
#11 in TDs
#13 in pass success rate
#16 in yards/game
Tied for 4th-most INT
And interestingly (to me) #31 in completions per game...and #30 in attempts per game. (Which is probably more of a coaching decision)

So it's actually really kind of hard for me to judge. The "bulk" stats (yards accumulated, total TDs and INTs) are honestly pretty middling. The advanced metrics are very, very good. I would think that with more passing volume it'd be reasonable to assume that the volume-based stats would go up, as well (i.e. if Love is generally a top-5 QB in yards per attempt and its various permutations, with more attempts you'd expect to see yardage go up exponentially).

With all that in mind then I guess my super quick surface-level/"gut" analysis of it would lead me to ask...why didn't we let Love loose a bit more?

I agree with you. I think the focus on the run game may have been too strong, limiting Love's involvement and diminishing the passing game. Don't forget the receivers dropped 30 passes in relatively few attempts (6.9%). That drop rate was crazy and it certainly decreased Love's productivity. I also think more passes needed to go to Kraft and Reed. Maybe he never felt all that comfortable with the injuries and MFL decided to put his eggs in the running game basket?

 

[Sanguine camper]

The Bears got Ben Johnson so there's going to be crowing by Bears fans that he should be penciled in for the HOF before his first season. His record at Detroit is tremendous but Detroit's offensive line would make any OC look good.

 

[rmontro]

The Packers finished 5th in yards and 8th in points, so it seems odd that we're on here complaining about the offense. Problem is, they just went dead at the wrong time, so maybe it looks worse than it is.

 

[pacmaniac]

Well, the Bears got Ben Johnson, so they got their wish. This is bad because it makes the Bears better, but hopefully it signals the beginning of the breakup of the Lions.

Hopefully he'll be another Josh McDaniels.

 

[gopkrs]

The Packers finished 5th in yards and 8th in points, so it seems odd that we're on here complaining about the offense. Problem is, they just went dead at the wrong time, so maybe it looks worse than it is.

Well it really comes down to how well you play against the really good defenses.

 

[Sanguine camper]

The Packers finished 5th in yards and 8th in points, so it seems odd that we're on here complaining about the offense. Problem is, they just went dead at the wrong time, so maybe it looks worse than it is.

You're right that the offense goes dead at the wrong times and has done so under MLF in the playoffs too often. Since the offense has largely been responsible for the playoff loses along with horrendous special teams, I would say that it isn't worse than it looks.

 

[Magooch]

Josh Jacobs.

Maybe he never felt all that comfortable with the injuries and MFL decided to put his eggs in the running game basket?

This is really all I can figure. Otherwise it feels kind of backwards - like, if THIS was Love's "rookie" season and we went out and got Josh Jacobs, it'd make sense to go pretty run heavy. But in theory Love (and his WRs) should be more comfortable in the offense in the second year and you'd expect a bit more freedom and/or responsibility to go along with that. Instead, somewhat paradoxically it felt at times like for Love in particular he had more "training wheels" put on in year two. Really, a lingering injury/less-than-100% is the most sensible explanation I can think of at this point.

The Packers finished 5th in yards and 8th in points, so it seems odd that we're on here complaining about the offense. Problem is, they just went dead at the wrong time, so maybe it looks worse than it is.

I think it's not so much that it "looks worse". That's a fairly accurate representation IMO. The trouble is that broadly speaking we more or less played right to that level and not above it - and the teams who are ahead of us are the ones that we'd need to beat to make a playoff run.
For instance we're 8th in offensive EPA/play. That puts us behind Detroit, Washington, Tampa, and Philly in the NFC. We'd have needed to beat at least two or three of those to make it to the Super Bowl (and then there's a decent chance we'd face one of Baltimore, Buffalo, or KC. Baltimore and Buffalo are 1/2, and KC is right behind us at 9). By the same measure our defense "outperformed" the offense, finishing 4th in EPA/play (Denver, Minnesota, Philly). In short, you could more or less say....good but not quite good enough, I guess.

 

[Dantés]

The emphasis on the run is a logical and appropriate response to all the two high that has proliferated in the NFL. And it was effective.

The primary passing game problems were that Love was not 100% for most of the season and the receiving corps proved highly susceptible to man coverage.

 

[tynimiller]

The emphasis on the run is a logical and appropriate response to all the two high that has proliferated in the NFL. And it was effective.

The primary passing game problems were that Love was not 100% for most of the season and the receiving corps proved highly susceptible to man coverage.

The concept of trying to beat the two high also is one factor why I keep discussing with a few in my scouting/NFL circles is the concept of teams building out their TE rooms vastly more and is why I am really coming around to the concept of a top 100 pick by GB being one of the true blue options that are out there for GB...the benefits of adding a third bonafide TE are endless but the creation of mismatches can be very strong depending on the package the defenses chooses to try and run against it:


Even if Musgrave or Kraft were to get banged up, we retain the ability to run true two TE sets with BOTH TEs being guys that can eat yards up through the air. This continually forces defenses on picking do they leave a third CB in, bring in that slot safety or perhaps even an additional LB....if they go lighter you run the ball, if heavier split a TE out and have the match up advantage against them.

Bonuses to this thought process are that Musgrave is not getting extended when Kraft does in all likelihood unless he starts to explode....drafting a guy now truly would offset any learning curve needed, PLUS a more receiving gifted/focused TE is easier to find in the draft than an all around like Kraft...TEs are also cheaper than WRs...IF GB continues to not have a true stud WR step forth worthy of big money, build around your TEs - many teams (including Chiefs) have done this with success.

What does this mean for the draft to actual play this out...like what names or scenarios?

If Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland fall...OR if say Gute does a trade back and we now have the luxury of an additional pick likely...making a later first or first pick on Day2 on a TE (out of the norm for GB) something that would actually be on the table.

Harold Fannin Jr is the guy I have GB green circled for the second round IF he somehow makes it to us. around pick #45 give or take I'm willing to go grab him because I truly believe he has everything going for him like Kraft, while Kraft might have been just a hair more blocking refined at draft time, Harold is better at route running and releases than Kraft is possibly now even. Harold is a match up nightmare, and anytime you can provide that to a defense to handle merely by having a guy out there you grab him.

Late rounder that is a TE match up nightmare I love but is little more in need of blocking ability tightened up is Oronde Gadsden...dude is a straight up red zone threat for days at 6'5' 215lbs...his pro comp for me is when Gesicki is hitting on all cylinders.

 

[MichiganSportsTalk]

All 3 NFC North teams stunk it up mostly because their QB play was pitiful. Goff's pick 6 in this game was the nail in their coffin. Lions fans must be devastated. Best team in the league all year but their defense got crushed today. Injuries caught up with them. Next man up doesn't cut in in the playoffs when the guys on IR are some of your best players.

Over 2 days later and still not quite sure how I actually feel, lol.

Been a Lions fan for just about 40 years. I've felt plenty of hurt, but this is different because when the hell did we ever have expectations of greatness. Rationally I understand that playoff heartbreak is better than the heartbreak I grew up with, but this game feels levels worse somehow.

Even with the defensive injuries and just general 'suckiness', even a normal game by 2024 standards and they could have won.
Goff just.... I don't know man. What the hell even was that?
Why did Goff throw it 40 times while Gibbs only ran it 14 times?
Why the hell was there an empty backfield on 3rd and 1 with a chance to go up 14-3?
Why did Glenn insist on blitzing in man coverage the entire game when it never worked?

With the players the Lions have, I still trust Campbell to replace Johnson and (probably) Glenn with capable coordinators. Might be some regression, but should still be competitive.

Just gonna be numb for a while I think, lol.

And for the love of god, please give us a Washington-Buffalo super bowl. Or really any combo that doesn't end in the Eagles or Chiefs winning.

 

[tynimiller]

Over 2 days later and still not quite sure how I actually feel, lol.

Been a Lions fan for just about 40 years. I've felt plenty of hurt, but this is different because when the hell did we ever have expectations of greatness. Rationally I understand that playoff heartbreak is better than the heartbreak I grew up with, but this game feels levels worse somehow.

Even with the defensive injuries and just general 'suckiness', even a normal game by 2024 standards and they could have won.
Goff just.... I don't know man. What the hell even was that?
Why did Goff throw it 40 times while Gibbs only ran it 14 times?
Why the hell was there an empty backfield on 3rd and 1 with a chance to go up 14-3?
Why did Glenn insist on blitzing in man coverage the entire game when it never worked?

With the players the Lions have, I still trust Campbell to replace Johnson and (probably) Glenn with capable coordinators. Might be some regression, but should still be competitive.

Just gonna be numb for a while I think, lol.

And for the love of god, please give us a Washington-Buffalo super bowl. Or really any combo that doesn't end in the Eagles or Chiefs winning.

As Packer fan living through a lot of playoff let downs, the numbness is something you get used to LOL

Here's to hoping you guys can push through something similar but healthier next year for 2025, the folks of Detroit deserve it - as a Packer fan I've been blessed to watch a few games there with Detroit fans around, good willed and natured fans (they'll blow you **** of course but in the end lot of respect). I hope we beat you guys in the NFCCG but I hope you get there! LOL

 

[rmontro]

Been a Lions fan for just about 40 years. I've felt plenty of hurt, but this is different because when the hell did we ever have expectations of greatness. Rationally I understand that playoff heartbreak is better than the heartbreak I grew up with, but this game feels levels worse somehow.

You're not alone, the Packers have had a load of very painful playoff losses over the last 30 years. Recently we had the #1 seed in '20 and '21 with Aaron Rodgers having MVP seasons, and couldn't get out of the conference. And those were the first two years they reduced the number of byes from two to one (in each conference). It's a unique kind of hurt.

As Packer fan living through a lot of playoff let downs, the numbness is something you get used to LOL

I don't think you do.