Arizona @ Green Bay Pregame Chatter

[Magooch]

Probably splitting hairs, but I do think there's a difference between "calling Musgrave a bust" and saying "he looks like a bust"...

Certainly too early to definitively call it one way or another, but to say that at this present moment he does look to be a bust (with the caveat that there is time to turn it around and prove that wrong)...seems kind of accurate I guess

 

[OldSchool101]

Probably splitting hairs, but I do think there's a difference between "calling Musgrave a bust" and saying "he looks like a bust"...

Certainly too early to definitively call it one way or another, but to say that at this present moment he does look to be a bust (with the caveat that there is time to turn it around and prove that wrong)...seems kind of accurate I guess

I don’t even agree there.
After just 17 contests his stat line:
45 rec 440 yards (9.8/catch) 1 TD


Bob Tonyan after his first 27 games
(First 2 seasons)
14 rec 177 yards (12.6/catch) 2 TD
Bobby produced 6.6 yards per contest across his first 2 seasons.

 

[Magooch]

I don’t even agree there.
After just 17 contests his stat line:
45 rec 440 yards (9.8/catch) 1 TD


Bob Tonyan after his first 27 games
(First 2 seasons)
14 rec 177 yards (12.6/catch) 2 TD
Bobby produced 6.6 yards per contest across his first 2 seasons.

Not totally disagreeing but it would probably be more appropriate to compare to players with a more similar draft pick? Musgrave was a second round pick, Tonyan was a UDFA… I think there are probably different expectations

 

[Sanguine camper]

What I think is pointing in the wrong direction for Musgrave are:
1. Downward trend in his second season. Most good players have a second year jump. Not always but it's a bad development.
2. He's not very durable. The best ability is availability. That's consistent with his inability to stay healthy at the collegiate level.
3. He had a lackluster training camp, did very little in the pre-season and has not gotten many snaps when he was available. Obviously, the coaching staff sees fit to give him a minor role.

Could he come back and live up to second round draft status? Maybe, but it's not looking very good. Most players in his predicament find it very difficult to turn the tide when they are injured so much.

 

[sschind]

It's amazing how a player who doesn't automatically rise to the top within a year year and a half or follow up one promising season for the fantastic second season is labeled a bust.

Probably splitting hairs, but I do think there's a difference between "calling Musgrave a bust" and saying "he looks like a bust"...

Certainly too early to definitively call it one way or another, but to say that at this present moment he does look to be a bust (with the caveat that there is time to turn it around and prove that wrong)...seems kind of accurate I guess

Is a bust, looks like a bust, means pretty much the same to me.

I don’t even agree there.
After just 17 contests his stat line:
45 rec 440 yards (9.8/catch) 1 TD


Bob Tonyan after his first 27 games
(First 2 seasons)
14 rec 177 yards (12.6/catch) 2 TD
Bobby produced 6.6 yards per contest across his first 2 seasons.

People are way too quick to throw the B word out there. The same people were probably praising him after last year so now you got five games this season and he looks like a bust?

 

[OldSchool101]

People are way too quick to throw the B word out there. The same people were probably praising him after last year so now you got five games this season and he looks like a bust?

Yeah. He just busted up Dallas in the Playoffs in January 2024. 6/66 1TD
Now we start the season and he gets 17 snaps in Brazil in O (25%)
Then QB1 goes down for 2 Weeks and we go full throttle Run. He catches 2/2 targets across Weeks 2,3
Then comes in for Loves first game back and catches 3/3 for small gains 13 yards etc, then at some point afterwards turns his ankle pretty bad.
In turn, he’s held out last week to give his ankle rest and it’s determined it’s a more serious injury than originally thought so he’s IR’d

I don’t consider that a Bust. I consider that someone who had very little opportunity to build off a good Rookie season. Personally, I saw enough last season and playoffs to say I think he’s a good athlete. Raw with small levels of experience but higher ceiling.

 

[OldSchool101]

Not totally disagreeing but it would probably be more appropriate to compare to players with a more similar draft pick? Musgrave was a second round pick,

Ok. Not only was he drafted earlier. Michael had extensive involvement in College. Luke was really more projection (needs time) than production. Select the red Dropdown to see his College numbers

Michael Mayer Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Michael Mayer. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[Magooch]

Ok. Not only was he drafted earlier. Michael had extensive involvement in College. Luke was really more projection (needs time) than production. Select the red Dropdown to see his College numbers

Michael Mayer Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Michael Mayer. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

The thing is I would say Mayer also falls into “looks like a bust” too lol. All pre-draft we heard how polished and pro ready he was and ended up being like the 40th ranked TE last year per PFF. but again: young and has time to turn it around.

Maybe I am just way too harsh of a grader. But I guess I’d say it like this: if I HAD to say about each player “looks like a hit” or “looks like a bust”… I think he’s closer to “looks like a bust” than “looks like a hit” right now. Again, subject to change and more than happy to reassess at the season’s end.

 

[PackerDNA]

Not even close to giving up on Musgrave. He's shown his toughness through injuries. Let him get healthy, give him time.

 

[OldSchool101]

The thing is I would say Mayer also falls into “looks like a bust” too lol. All pre-draft we heard how polished and pro ready he was and ended up being like the 40th ranked TE last year per PFF. but again: young and has time to turn it around.

Maybe I am just way too harsh of a grader. But I guess I’d say it like this: if I HAD to say about each player “looks like a hit” or “looks like a bust”… I think he’s closer to “looks like a bust” than “looks like a hit” right now. Again, subject to change and more than happy to reassess at the season’s end.

We really should take into consideration his history at Oregon State and his Draft Profile to set expectations. In College he had limited production. Partly he started late, then a shortened Covid season, then a serious injury in his Junior Season. Productivity wise he was good but in limited looks.

Here’s a Scouting clip from Bleacher report describing his path to NFL success. It’s pretty consistent across many Scouting reports on him.

From Bleacher Report
In all, Musgrave's height, athletic tools and baseline blocking skills give him everything he needs to be a weapon. He can succeed as a field-stretching tight end who doesn't have to leave the field on run downs, which gives him access to aggressive play-action concepts to make use of his speed. He will need to add weight and muscle in order to handle himself in traffic and over the middle of the field, however. Hopefully a year or two in an NFL weight training system can do the trick and unlock his potential.

For now he’s injured, so we’ll all have to remain patient. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Heres to hoping Sims will shine in his absence.

 

[PikeBadger]

It's amazing how a player who doesn't automatically rise to the top within a year year and a half or follow up one promising season for the fantastic second season is labeled a bust.


Is a bust, looks like a bust, means pretty much the same to me.



People are way too quick to throw the B word out there. The same people were probably praising him after last year so now you got five games this season and he looks like a bust?

Lots of fans are very impatient, judgmental, and loose with words. Not all players develop at the same rate mentally and physically or with the same consistency of work and study habits. Many past examples of players not having met expectations in their second year. Imo, Musgrave does not look like he has a NFL ready body yet.

 

[Schultz]

Do we need to bring back the "fire the strength and conditioning coach" thread? Asking for a friend.

 

[swhitset]

Another point I’d make is an age old recommendation in this universe. To “wear well” it’s like the Hare and Tortoise lesson. Many seasons it’s the teams that sneak under radar that do well in the playoffs. Mike Holmgren (I think it was) responded to some news in the media that they weren’t very good. He literally told his team to “let it be or let them think we suck” in so many words.
That sentiment said to his team that HE thought they were much better than their recent, earlier season performance (and we found out they were correct). That season was 1996

lol we have a different memory of that year. I remember a very dominant Packer defense that noone questioned.

 

[OldSchool101]

lol we have a different memory of that year. I remember a very dominant Packer defense that noone questioned.

Yeah. I’m guessing it was after a loss or possibly our back to back losses etc.

What’s interesting about that season is that the Vikings started 4-0 and eventually 5-1 a couple games later. Then went on to lose 4 games in a row. Now I’m not suggesting that will happen, but go back in time and after 4-0 lots people were crowning them Kings. I’ll just say that we learned from our 15-1 season that Regular season records go out the Window in Postseason. Getting in on the Bracket, sure. Once you qualify it’s all about who’s hot in January -Feb that really matters.
I’d rather be 10-6 and heating up than 13-3 and cooling off

 

[Sanguine camper]

Lots of fans are very impatient, judgmental, and loose with words. Not all players develop at the same rate mentally and physically or with the same consistency of work and study habits. Many past examples of players not having met expectations in their second year. Imo, Musgrave does not look like he has a NFL ready body yet.

Most successful players have a career trajectory of improvement, especially in year 2. I'm just saying the odds of Musgrave turning things around with such a poor record of staying healthy are way lower than him not living up to his draft status. Is he a bust at this time? Not yet, but he sure is traveling down that road. The NFL is brutal on young players who spend too much time in the hot tub. It's one thing to miss time when you're an established talent. It's quite another to miss crucial years at the start of a career when the learning curve for TE's is steep.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I'm sure hoping that Rashon Gary and Lukas Van Ness finally show up this week. I'm inclined to contact the local dairy and have their "missing" profiles put on the side of the milk carton.

Getting to Murray won't be easy but giving him all day to throw won't help. I like what I see out of Cooper's blitzing ability. Maybe he can give the Packers a consistent sack threat. That might have to wait since he will likely be shadowing Murray this Sunday.

 

[milani]

Yeah. I’m guessing it was after a loss or possibly our back to back losses etc.

What’s interesting about that season is that the Vikings started 4-0 and eventually 5-1 a couple games later. Then went on to lose 4 games in a row. Now I’m not suggesting that will happen, but go back in time and after 4-0 lots people were crowning them Kings. I’ll just say that we learned from our 15-1 season that Regular season records go out the Window in Postseason. Getting in on the Bracket, sure. Once you qualify it’s all about who’s hot in January -Feb that really matters.
I’d rather be 10-6 and heating up than 13-3 and cooling off

The Vikings started 5-0 several times in their history including 2003. Yet somehow, some way they went into a funk that year. Still had a chance to clinch on the final day in AZ. But we all know Josh McCown on 4th and 24 on the final play into the end zone.
" The Cardinals just knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs!"

 

[Heyjoe4]

Might be a bit of a tricky one. I feel like the Cardinals are kinda one of those sneaky good teams right now. Of course they are just 2-3, but they played the Bills and Lions close, beat the 49ers, and crushed the Rams. Now granted I don't think the Bills and 9ers are as good as they've been advertised to be, but still...we may be in for a tough match.

Yeah this is a bit of a trap game. I think the coaches are aware of the impact players the Cardinals have, and how dangerous Murray can be when he runs. The D will almost certainly play a "contain" game, trying to keep Murray between the ends. But Murray is more elusive than Hurts and Richardson, IMO.

(Someone described Murray's elusiveness as like that of a 3 year old who has the TV controller and is running around the house to escape his less agile parents.)

Anyway, it's no gimme.

 

[weeds]

The Vikings started 5-0 several times in their history including 2003. Yet somehow, some way they went into a funk that year. Still had a chance to clinch on the final day in AZ. But we all know Josh McCown on 4th and 24 on the final play into the end zone.
" The Cardinals just knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs!"

Oooo do I remember that one. Ended up with being bounced due to our own 4th and 26..

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm sure hoping that Rashon Gary and Lukas Van Ness finally show up this week. I'm inclined to contact the local dairy and have their "missing" profiles put on the side of the milk carton.

Getting to Murray won't be easy but giving him all day to throw won't help. I like what I see out of Cooper's blitzing ability. Maybe he can give the Packers a consistent sack threat. That might have to wait since he will likely be shadowing Murray this Sunday.

Yeah where have RG and LVN been this season? I get that they have played QB "contain" games, and have another one with Murray, but c'mon man! It seems like LVN is easily rerouted behind the QB by the OT. He's simply taken out of the play too often.

I don't know what to say about Gary. He's too good to get rerouted like LVN. It's a mystery to me.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Vikings started 5-0 several times in their history including 2003. Yet somehow, some way they went into a funk that year. Still had a chance to clinch on the final day in AZ. But we all know Josh McCown on 4th and 24 on the final play into the end zone.
" The Cardinals just knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs!"

The Vikings have played a number of good teams so far and won - SF, Houston, GB - and the rest of their schedule looks pretty easy. And they'll get Hockenson back. Their biggest weakness is a strong but old D that tires in the 2H. They look legit to me, and I HATE to admit that.

Not that I'm worried. The Vikings are one of the top "choke" teams in the playoffs, the other being the Bills. There's a reason they don't have any Lombardi trophies, and that won't change this year.

(OK maybe I'm whistling while walking in the dark past a cemetery. I just truly hate the queens.)

 

[OldSchool101]

Most successful players have a career trajectory of improvement, especially in year 2. I'm just saying the odds of Musgrave turning things around with such a poor record of staying healthy are way lower than him not living up to his draft status. Is he a bust at this time? Not yet, but he sure is traveling down that road. The NFL is brutal on young players who spend too much time in the hot tub. It's one thing to miss time when you're an established talent. It's quite another to miss crucial years at the start of a career when the learning curve for TE's is steep.

We already had a sample of his athleticism but he was very raw last year. No way will we give up on a Top 50 selection in year 2 over medium grade injuries.

Scouts said he’d need strength conditioning for a couple years to work into his frame. He was really a project all along but they tested him in his Rookie season and he looked pretty good to me. The best way to learn is trial by fire. As he spends time in the weight room you’ll see a growth spurt at some point.

I don’t know if you recall early David Bskhtiari. He had a very similar projection but just at a different position. He spent a few seasons with the Staff gaining strength and then blossomed. I think Luke could do that as early as 2025. In the meantime the kid can trip over 500 yards when he’s playing. He’s that good. I’m not suggesting he’ll be an All Pro, but I am about 90% sure he can put up 500-600 yards 5Td in any given season and we’re talking floor here.

 

[Magooch]

No way will we give up on a Top 50 selection in year 2 over medium grade injuries.

I don’t think anyone is saying that we *will* or that we *should*, though. Just that he’s currently not trending the right direction at the moment - which I think is hard to dispute, isn’t it?

I guess the simplest way of putting it for me is like this: If Musgrave continues on his current path/trajectory/etc, he’ll end up a bust/flop/whatever you want to call it. That’s not to say he WILL continue on said path/trajectory/etc., just that that’s the direction his “arrow” is currently pointing. Of course I hope he’s able to chart a new course there, but who can know…

 

[OldSchool101]

I guess the simplest way of putting it for me is like this: If Musgrave continues on his current path/trajectory/etc, he’ll end up a bust/flop/whatever you want to call it. That’s not to say he WILL continue on said path/trajectory/etc., just that that’s the direction his “arrow” is currently pointing. Of course I hope he’s able to chart a new course there, but who can know…

Yeah but you could say that about 1/2 of the 2nd Round selections from 2023. Really you could say that about all the #1 overall selections that have ever missed significant time inside their first 20 potential games for that matter.

So my contention in regard to the bold above is injury alone in a smaller sample size ~25 games is still not solid an indicator on career success rates. So what do we use as a better indicator? On Field production

Luke played in 12 contests in his Rookie season. Had he stayed at that production across a 17 game stretch?
592 yards 3 TD’s. IMO that shows pretty good promise just in a generic estimation of how he’s played.

Now if we want to say he’s “injured too much” etc ok I get that it’s frustrating as heck. But taking that into applying that Bust label by projecting injuries out like that across 4 seasons, it’s too sporadic. I really don’t even want to speak like that about him I wouldn’t do it to you either. It’s like bad mojo I’ll probably sprain my ankle.

 

[Sanguine camper]

In evaluating a high draft pick like Musgrave, its important to keep in mind the higher the pick, the greater the investment and the more a player has to produce to pay back that investment. High draft picks need to be quality starters or better for 4-6 seasons to pay off. A bust shouldn't always mean no production or that label would rarely fit anyone. I think it's reasonable to say a "busted" pick is a high draft choice (rounds 1-3) that doesn't develop into a quality starter. If those picks don't develop, it usually leaves a gaping hole in the roster. With 24 starters, a typical GM needs to find at least 4 good starters every year given the average player longevity. Those starters and most of the pro bowl quality players are picked in the first 3 rounds. Getting a gem in the later rounds happens and Gute is a great at finding them, but it's just rarer than finding a great player in the first 3 rounds.