All the draft complaining...let's look over the past 10 seasons...

[GleefulGary]

Perry was good, he just couldn't stay healthy. He had all the talent.

He set the edge so dang well. Good pass rusher too, but man, he could set an edge. Underrated ability.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Many forget the fact he beat competition out to start his rookie year. I 100% get the debate over his inclusion, but I will always give the nod to a rookie able to come in and get the starting nod over someone expected to be out a rookie, no matter who that is. Walden was an experienced NFL player, and he had no business being beat by a rookie in my opinion.

Walden and Moses started more games than Perry when he was a rookie didn't they? Perry starting any games at all could have easily been attributed to his draft stock. Didn't he want to be a 4-3 DE? I never thought Perry was a good fit.

 

[OldSchool101]

Another note. That move back n forth to land J’aire Alexander (winner) #18 overall several spots later than our original draft spot (#14 overall) also wisely set up the draft resources to move up and land Darnell Savage the following draft in 2019. Gute then packages those moves and packages away a 2 draft combo of #76, #114, #118, #186 (352 points)

and craftily landed a #21, #248 (801 draft points) plus a 5th year option bonus. If we add back in -200 lost points in the 2018 back n forth. Gute nets +249 draft points (using calculator soup) + a 5th year option on Savage if desired.

After all said and done through the gyrations.. Gute netted the equivalent bonus of a early 3rd rounder (pick #68 overall) plus a second 5th year option from the 2019 draft. It could’ve been far better than that as The Saints pick we acquired ended up being at the end of the round. Absolutely brilliant.

Since it’s agreed we don’t know the full scope of Gutey’s selections (although we know by popular opinion Love and Gary are already combined D- grades! Wink wink) We can speculate numerically from an accounting perspective, Gute is carrying a #68 overall draft collateral from previous draft and lost a <#136 overall>in the Love move up in 2020. It would be the equivalent of Gute standing pat and drafting Love at #30... but getting a Deguara #76 TE thrown in as a bonus (oh yeah, plus that 5th year option on Savage as a perk). Gute doesn’t look quite so bad when we assess his total package draft moves on an accounting platform.

 

[XPack]

TBC:
Jordan Love
AJ Dillon
Rashan Gary

Good:
Kenny Clark
Davante Adams
Nick Perry
.
Casey Hayward
Eddie Lacy
Randall Cobb
Bryan Bulaga
Haha


Trending good:
Darnell Savage
Elgton Jenkins
Jaire Alexander

Tending doubtful:
Josh Jackson

Didn't cut the mustard:
Josh Jones
Jason Spriggs
Damarious Randall
Quinten Rollins
Datone Jones
Derek Sherrod
Mike Neal

 

[XPack]

But anyway I think you missed the context of the complaints....current picks do not help the team right now.

You do not rebuild when you should be aiming for the SB, so irrespective of whether Love/Dillon end up being boom or bust, this is a missed opportunity.

 

[Dantés]

But anyway I think you missed the context of the complaints....current picks do not help the team right now.

You do not rebuild when you should be aiming for the SB, so irrespective of whether Love/Dillon end up being boom or bust, this is a missed opportunity.

Love is obviously an investment in the future, but why doesn't Dillon help the team right now?

 

[Sanguine camper]

When evaluating draft picks. I think its fair to say that in order for the pick to be considered a success, the player has to play well for the Packers. Casey Hayward played great for the Chargers but he had only one really good season for the Packers and was let go. The Packers just didn't develop his talent as effectively as the Chargers. I think its also fair to expect more good seasons from a first or second round pick than a third round pick. Eddie Lacy had two good seasons. Is that enough to consider that pick a success? I don't think so. You expect second roind starters to last longer than two seasons. If they flame out, it leaves another hole in the roster.

 

[OldSchool101]

But anyway I think you missed the context of the complaints....current picks do not help the team right now.

You do not rebuild when you should be aiming for the SB, so irrespective of whether Love/Dillon end up being boom or bust, this is a missed opportunity.

Listen. I’m not wholly disagreeing that I wouldn’t favor waiting at QB, as I saw that move coming in either the 2021 or 2022. I also would’ve been very happy trading back slightly for an additional 4th rounder, Then going WR at pick #33/#34. We could’ve had a WR, RB and TE before day 3 started. Then had Akeem Davis-Gaither and Josiah Scott gift wrapped in round 4 and so on.. (just an Example)

That said, Eddie Lacy put up 3,000 yards from scrimmage in his first 2 seasons. He also had as many receptions in his rookie season ad he did his entire tenure in college (35).

Now I don’t know in what type capacity they are planning on using Dillon anymore than the next guy, but he’s totally 100% capable of 1000+ APY in his Rookie season.
PS. Something tells me they will use him more in the Redzone visits as a lead or short yardage (more like a glorified FB) That may mean the alternative is a high % of 1st downs and TD’s per touch verses raw yardage. I see him eventually being weaponized in the passing game, where neither him nor Eddie Lacy were utilized in college. Dillon is far more athletic than Lacy and has a much higher upside if used in the passing game (more like a poor man’s Ty)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

But anyway I think you missed the context of the complaints....current picks do not help the team right now.

You do not rebuild when you should be aiming for the SB, so irrespective of whether Love/Dillon end up being boom or bust, this is a missed opportunity.

I agree that Gutekunst missed an opportunity to improve the Packers chances to win the Super Bowl in 2020 but Love and Dillon working out as planned would definitely soften the blow. On the other hand it would be even worse if neither of them performs up to expectations.

Love is obviously an investment in the future, but why doesn't Dillon help the team right now?

Because Dillon will be the #2 running back on the depth chart at best in 2020.

Now I don’t know in what type capacity they are planning on using Dillon anymore than the next guy, but he’s totally 100% capable of 1000+ APY in his Rookie season.

Just for the record, the last time the Packers had a backup running back to top 1,000 yards from scrimmage was back in 1980.

 

[Toad1924]

I truly think it is as poor as many imagine, but also very fair to say not active enough tho.

We brought in two of the best if not best defensive players through free agency in my lifetime....guy named Reggie and a guy named Charles.

I was more referring to the years discussed in this thread. Basically the end of TT's career. Peppers was the only impact signing I can recall during these years and it worked out very well as we were a 4th quarter collapse away from a SB. There were several years we had glaring holes in our defense, didn't address it in FA (or the draft sometimes), and our defense was as bad as expected and cost us in the playoffs.

Agree that Reggie and Charles are all time great signings but one was in 1993 and the other in 2006.

 

[AmishMafia]

But anyway I think you missed the context of the complaints....current picks do not help the team right now.

You do not rebuild when you should be aiming for the SB, so irrespective of whether Love/Dillon end up being boom or bust, this is a missed opportunity.

Its not a good way to evaluate a pick, what it does for the team now.

By that metric, Rodgers was a horrible pick because it didn't help the team win this first 3 years in the league.

There are nos sure things in the NFL and adding an important piece only tips the scales slightly. Maybe drafting an impact WR improves our SB chances from 8% to 9.5%. Which is great, but maybe if Love is who they think he is, we are 5% more likely to win a SB each year from 2022 to 2030.

IMHO, a WR would not do much for us this season. There is a limiting factor with our QB. If he gets his back to his old self, our offense will be fine. If he doesn't, a new WR regardless of talent won't change that.

 

[Dantés]

Because Dillon will be the #2 running back on the depth chart at best in 2020.

Ok... so why couldn't the #2 running back help the team in 2020?

 

[AmishMafia]

Ok... so why couldn't the #2 running back help the team in 2020?

I think he will excell in short yardage situations: extending a bunch of drives and punching it into the end zone as well.

Imagine with his speed, size and jumping ability. There are a variety of ways he can beat you. You can take away 1 or 2 aspects, but then he will beat you with the third. He will be very tough to defend against.

This is a man who at almost 250 lbs, is in the top 5% of all backs in the vertical jump. He is a pretty incredible athlete and has a real possibility of making an impact as a rookie. There are other things to judge a rookies impact other than 1000 yard threshold.

 

[Dantés]

I think he will excell in short yardage situations: extending a bunch of drives and punching it into the end zone as well.

Imagine with his speed, size and jumping ability. There are a variety of ways he can beat you. You can take away 1 or 2 aspects, but then he will beat you with the third. He will be very tough to defend against.

A man who at almost 250 lbs, is in the top 5% of all backs in the vertical jump. He is a pretty incredible athlete and clhas a real possibility of making an impact as a rookie.

I personally thought that Jones' workload was too heavy last year. I would like to see him down around 200 carries or so, with lots of usage in the passing game. This is doubly true if they want to extend him. You have to protect your investment, in that case.

He played 62% of snaps and that should probably come down. Additionally, there should be and will be snaps in which Jones and Dillon are on the field at the same time, with Jones split out. So there are probably over 400 snaps available to Dillon, providing he seizes that RB2 job.

 

[OldSchool101]

Just for the record, the last time the Packers had a backup running back to top 1,000 yards from scrimmage was back in 1980.

I said he was capable, not that he would. His rookie season Dillon is going to be fighting to steal snaps from two capable RBs and absorbing a pretty intricate system. So you’re probably right in year 1. But year 2 he’s going to be featured far more 1000 is probably a bit light there. I’d predict Dillon exceeds 2,000+ from Scrimmage in his first 2 seasons.
Keep in mind while it sounds a lot, Jamaal puts up 700+APY every season (actually 800+ his rookie season) without blinking and it’s more likely Dillon gets used more than Jamaal did over his first 2 seasons.
If they take a guy with 850 snaps in 3 seasons in college and turn him into a 75 snap RB, then all is for naught.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Love is obviously an investment in the future, but why doesn't Dillon help the team right now?

Because there is very little chance that he is a better RB than Aaron Jones? I guess you could argue that Dillon helps if Jones gets hurt, but then the overall team is just a little worse as opposed to better if Dillon has to replace Jones for an extended period of time. Dillon will probably help the team in 2021 if the Packers let Jones walk, but that's not right now.

 

[Dantés]

Because there is very little chance that he is a better RB than Aaron Jones? I guess you could argue that Dillon helps if Jones gets hurt, but then the overall team is just a little worse as opposed to better if Dillon has to replace Jones for an extended period of time. Dillon will probably help the team in 2021 if the Packers let Jones walk, but that's not right now.

So only one running back can help a team in a given season. Got it.

 

[GleefulGary]

Because there is very little chance that he is a better RB than Aaron Jones? I guess you could argue that Dillon helps if Jones gets hurt, but then the overall team is just a little worse as opposed to better if Dillon has to replace Jones for an extended period of time. Dillon will probably help the team in 2021 if the Packers let Jones walk, but that's not right now.

Is Jones going to get 100% of the RB snaps?

Heck, you do realize that Jones and Dillon can be on the field at the same time, right? Crazy, I realize, but it will happen. LaFleur is gonna split Jones out a lot, just like McCaffrey.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

So only one running back can help a team in a given season. Got it.

I'll explain further. The offense will be worse with Aaron Jones not on the field unless Dillon is a better RB. If Jones gets hurt, then Dillon (if he's good) will allow the offense to decline less than if Williams is the starter. That's NOT an improvement though, that's still a decline, unless you think Dillon is a better RB than Jones.

Injuries matter in the NFL and it's fair to say that just having a guy as a slightly worse backup doesn't actually improve the team if the starter gets hurt.

Does the clarify my point? Or are you arguing that Dillon is a top-10 RB in the NFL?

And, to be clear, all of this is assuming that a late second RB is going to be a very good NFL RB, which isn't exactly a certainty.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Is Jones going to get 100% of the RB snaps?

Heck, you do realize that Jones and Dillon can be on the field at the same time, right? Crazy, I realize, but it will happen. LaFleur is gonna split Jones out a lot, just like McCaffrey.

I'll believe that when I see him actually do it.

 

[GleefulGary]

I'll believe that when I see him actually do it.

He did it last year, and you're not believing...

We saw Jones and Williams on the field at the same time, so it's likely Dillon will too.

 

[GleefulGary]

I'll explain further. The offense will be worse with Aaron Jones not on the field unless Dillon is a better RB. If Jones gets hurt, then Dillon (if he's good) will allow the offense to decline less than if Williams is the starter. That's NOT an improvement though, that's still a decline, unless you think Dillon is a better RB than Jones.

Injuries matter in the NFL and it's fair to say that just having a guy as a slightly worse backup doesn't actually improve the team if the starter gets hurt.

Does the clarify my point? Or are you arguing that Dillon is a top-10 RB in the NFL?

And, to be clear, all of this is assuming that a late second RB is going to be a very good NFL RB, which isn't exactly a certainty.

I can see where this is confusing to you, but the point is that Jones + Dillon > Jones + Williams.

 

[Dantés]

I'll explain further. The offense will be worse with Aaron Jones not on the field unless Dillon is a better RB. If Jones gets hurt, then Dillon (if he's good) will allow the offense to decline less than if Williams is the starter. That's NOT an improvement though, that's still a decline, unless you think Dillon is a better RB than Jones.

Injuries matter in the NFL and it's fair to say that just having a guy as a slightly worse backup doesn't actually improve the team if the starter gets hurt.

Does the clarify my point? Or are you arguing that Dillon is a top-10 RB in the NFL?

And, to be clear, all of this is assuming that a late second RB is going to be a very good NFL RB, which isn't exactly a certainty.

This doesn't add up at all.

Aaron Jones cannot play every snap or take ever carry. If healthy, he will probably take about 60% of the snaps and take about 50-55% of the rush attempts.

Given that reality, Dillon does not have to be as good or better than Jones to provide an improvement to the team overall. He just has to be an improvement over the alternatives behind Jones.

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

This doesn't add up at all.

Dillon does not have to be as good or better than Jones to provide an improvement to the team overall. He just has to be an improvement over the alternatives behind Jones.

This reminds me of the time I was camping with my late wife. We heard a bear in the middle of thee night. I started putting on my running shoes. She said “ why are you doing that? You can’t outrun a bear.”

I answered, I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you. And I did.

 

[XPack]

Its not a good way to evaluate a pick, what it does for the team now.

Draft is not always years down in future. It can and should also be used in areas for immediate 1-2 years improvement. We evaluate picks by what the team needs. And we've sacrificed immediate performance for a potential longer term benefit.

And AR was a potential #1 pick who fell down beyond anyone's expectations. Love is nowhere comparable to that scenario.

Ok... so why couldn't the #2 running back help the team in 2020?

Because he doesn't fix any of our weak areas after last season?