49ers at Packers Pre-game Thread

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah it's a tough call for me. On one hand you don't want to fool yourself into thinking you're something you're not by beating a banged up team. On the other hand...a win is a win and record DOES matter. Obviously an *actual* win vs a banged-up 49ers team is better than a "moral victory" loss to a full-strength one. As I said before I do wonder if mentally it won't be beneficial to beat them (and conversely detrimental to lose) even if they're not at full strength...

I listened to some of Kyle Shanahan's presser yesterday and he sounded pretty down, really low energy. He was quick to point out that 4 of the 49'er losses this year were decided in the last 2 possessions. Then he follow it up with what I point outed yesterday, 7 Packer games were decided in the last possession and the Packers have won 6 of those, the only loss was against Philly.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I almost forgot that former Packer De'Vondre Campbell is a 49'er. From his stats, doesn't look like he is playing that much. Anyone know how his season has gone? He has to be pumped up for this game.

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[Pokerbrat2000]

Sounds like Purdy's shoulder injury was worrisome enough that he had an MRI done. Good news for Purdy was that they didn't see anything troubling, but it really is starting to sound like we may see backup QB Brandon Allen.

Speaking of QB's, Giants released Daniel Jones today. According to Spotrac, the Giants will take on $47.1 M in dead money this year and $22.2 M in 2025. By releasing Jones, the Giants free up $19.4 million in cap space next year as his cap hit will drop from $41.61 M to $22.21 M.

That's CRAZY!

 

[milani]

Sounds like some aren't expecting Purdy to play on Sunday. Oh damn!

MSN

The 9ers are in a more stressing position. Although there division will probably be won with a mediocre record a wold card spot is not going to get it at 8-9 or possibly 9-8. They will be playing this game like a win or go home scenario which means they may push players to play.

 

[milani]

I almost forgot that former Packer De'Vondre Campbell is a 49'er. From his stats, doesn't look like he is playing that much. Anyone know how his season has gone? He has to be pumped up for this game.

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When I have watched 9ers game he appears to get his name called enough. And they refer to him as the former Packer.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think all of their injured guys are going to play, but doubtful any of them will be 100%

If Purdy's should is giving him as much trouble as it sounds like it is, I doubt he plays. Throwing shoulder and legs are key to a QB's success and playing when they are injured isn't easy. Not to mention that if they fear he can do more damage by playing, they won't put him out there.

Could be a ploy for sure and Shanahan just wants the Packers guessing. That said, I don't think the game plan changes much for the Packers, no matter who is starting.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just got my favorite type of text from my buddy with Packer tickets. "Yup, late game, wife doesn't wanna go, you available?"

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[OldSchool101]

The 9ers are in a more stressing position. Although there division will probably be won with a mediocre record a wold card spot is not going to get it at 8-9 or possibly 9-8. They will be playing this game like a win or go home scenario which means they may push players to play.

It’s a pretty big game for them. Although it’s also a pretty big game for us. It’s now highly likely our path to the playoffs comes through 3 Wildcard spots. As of today the Vikings hold the 5th and we hold at 6th. Our primary Competition is Vikings, Washington, 49ers, Seattle, Arizona, LA for those 3 spots.
We hold tiebreakers over LA and Arizona and 1 of the 4 NFC West teams will obviously win their Division, so they’ll drop off of the list (currently Arizona).
That puts Minnesota, Washington and likely SF or Seattle fighting the Packers over 3 spots. LA is odd man out because we win a tiebreaker.

A victory over SF49ers is substantial. 8-3 with Tiebreakers over Arizona, SF, LA would be huge. We’d also have a 4-3 Conference record and only Washington would be better (as far as non Division winners)

So yes, imo it’s detrimental to SF that they Win. Falling to 5-6 with potentially 5 teams fighting over what will amount to 1 or 2 spots. What shaping up is that 9-8 likely won’t cut it in 2024. 10-7 will likely be the bottom in the NFC and 11 Wins to feel good about a Wildcard.

For the Packers, 8-3 would have us staring at the 11-6 area and a lock. We’d need to Win 3 of our last 6 imo our odds would be high going into the stretch. We’d really be battling between the 6th and 5th seeding and an easier matchup on Wildcard (with outside parameters of a Division Leader or barely hanging our scraggly hat on a 7th Seed with a tie breaker getting us there).

 

[Magooch]

I was reading that the 49ers' playoff odds sit at roughly ~50% if they win on Sunday, but drop to just 15% or so with a loss. So we can effectively end their season*

Odds of a top 4 seed at this point are extremely slim. I guess technically we're only 2 games back from Detroit for the lead, but we'd have to beat them in the head to head AND hope they drop at least two games that they "should" win to have a hope.

On the plus side, I think we should feel okay as long as we don't drop to the 7 seed - that means that we'd most likely play Philly and that's a tough matchup. With a 5/6 seed we probably play either Arizona or Atlanta, both of which are winnable games (one of which we have already won, of course)

So, big game no matter how you slice it. May very well take a longtime rival out of contention, and a win bumps us to approximately 90% chance to make playoffs.

*And this is what I was getting at for the psychological impact: if we get a win, there's a good chance it removes the possibility of having to play our playoff "nemesis" in the postseason

 

[milani]

I was reading that the 49ers' playoff odds sit at roughly ~50% if they win on Sunday, but drop to just 15% or so with a loss. So we can effectively end their season*

Odds of a top 4 seed at this point are extremely slim. I guess technically we're only 2 games back from Detroit for the lead, but we'd have to beat them in the head to head AND hope they drop at least two games that they "should" win to have a hope.

On the plus side, I think we should feel okay as long as we don't drop to the 7 seed - that means that we'd most likely play Philly and that's a tough matchup. With a 5/6 seed we probably play either Arizona or Atlanta, both of which are winnable games (one of which we have already won, of course)

So, big game no matter how you slice it. May very well take a longtime rival out of contention, and a win bumps us to approximately 90% chance to make playoffs.

*And this is what I was getting at for the psychological impact: if we get a win, there's a good chance it removes the possibility of having to play our playoff "nemesis" in the postseason

What I fear is that without Alexander is that it gives the opponent another target. And in the short game without Cooper our veterans will be hard pressed to stop McCaffrey. And it will not take a Brock Purdy to get the ball to either Kittle or him.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm surprised nobody's talked about Juan Jennings. He looks like their best receiver. Definitely have to try and control that guy.

 

[Pkrjones]

Did not practice today (Friday): Purdy, Bosa, & OT Trent Williams. Those are 3 big time players for SF that may sit. GB needs to play UP to their opponent, Sunday, and seize this win!

 

[OldSchool101]

Odds of a top 4 seed at this point are extremely slim. I guess technically we're only 2 games back from Detroit for the lead, but we'd have to beat them in the head to head AND hope they drop at least two games that they "should" win to have a hope.

If we played Detroit today and beat them in that scenario? we’re only 1 game back, not 2. It would come down to a tie breaker and they might win the Div record. We’d likely need them to also lose to Minn or Chicago

I'm surprised nobody's talked about Juan Jennings. He looks like their best receiver. Definitely have to try and control that guy

He’s interesting. He reminds me of Geronimo in some ways. He’s not fast at all, but he’s got great hands and fights for extra yards and seems to always be open (like Wicks). He’s no Reed though imo. He’s closer to Doubs level.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Seeing via twitter that QB Brandon Allen will start vs the Packers. Bosa out. Williams questionable.

 

[PackerDNA]

Seeing via twitter that QB Brandon Allen will start vs the Packers. Bosa out. Williams questionable.

They are missing key players and others are playing at less than 100%. They should blow them out. But we have a habit of making backups look like Joe Montana in his prime. If this game is even close much less lose it, if they don't start cleaning up everything that's plagued them for the first 10 games of the season, then this can only be regarded as an average or below average team that shouldn't even be in the playoffs much less regarded as a contender

 

[weeds]

Bosa and Purdy are out. That'll help. We need NFC wins.

 

[PackerDNA]

I don't know how much can be gained from this win even if they win decisively. We struggled with lesser teams with injury issues.. this could be more of a test of ourselves versus ourselves. Get focused. The season starts now.