tynimiller
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Yup I shared this a while back....ridiculous.
2023 Salary cap riddle
- Thread starter Pokerbrat2000
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Yup I shared this a while back....ridiculous.
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
....and some wondered why Gute was for the most part staying idle in the Free Agent market. The Packers took some good whacks over the last 4-5 years of going for the Lombardi, but in the end here they are. Moving forward, it is time to pay the piper, get Cap healthy, trim as much fat (Bahk in 2024) as you can and hit on some current (Love) and future draft picks.
mradtke66
Cheesehead
You are correct. Good news is the cap, as a construct, is flexible.
mradtke66
Cheesehead
Meh. This is honestly fine. Rodgers's hit clears after this year. While the most recent extension wasn't optimal, it's reasonable to assume a performance hit. Take your cap medicine and reload for the next year. Unlikely we're competitive enough to push deep in the playoffs in the first year under Love. In short, this is fine.
As far as Gute not dipping into FA much, I don't consider that much of an issue and not significantly impacted by our current contracts.
TT was extreme, but I think his FA is closer to the optimal play. In general, and I stress in general, FAs present too much risk relative to their cost.
First and foremost, actual good players don't make it to FA. The other team will play games with their own cap to keep those special, Tier 1-A players. If they are willing to let them go, there is usual a reason. They're old. They're an injury risk. They're a malcontent. You, the buyer, are taking on all that risk.
Okay, so you've found a player in tier 1-B that is worth the risk. Now you're bidding against the other 30 (maybe 31, if this is a can-no-longer-afford-the-franchise-tag situation) teams. Multiple teams bidding is going to drive up the price. Now you're at risk paying 1-A prices for 1-B talent.
Third, I think the most important way to build your team if through the draft. And if you're drafting well, getting 1-2 good players per draft that worth offering a large, second contract to, you're not going to have a ton of cap space. If you're ******** up the draft, or have for a few years, then you don't have good players worth extending. You're going to have an upcoming glut of cap space and be missing players. This is a time when it's worth spending big. (Smith, Smith, Turner, and Amos are the outcome.)
Another situation is when you identify a player that the rest of the league is under-valuing. Maybe they are a risk, but the cost/risk balance is enough to take the shot. Pickett falls into the first category (a former 1st rounder who turned out to just be a run plugger) and Woodson falls into the second (a malcontent, a couple years on IR, and maybe his best years are behind him and he should move to safety, etc.)
When the stars aligned, both our most recent GMs took their shots. Woodson, Picket, Smiths...but all the things need to line up right.
Where I think TT took it too far was his unwillingness for the occasional band-aid. Second and third tier FAs for low money to patch up holes/act as a backstop. Nothing wrong with spending a little money for your 4th lineman to play 30% of your snaps. A willey, 30 year old RG in case your shiny rookie RG doesn't pan out. A 3/4 bubble WR that's good in the redzone. Those patch-jobs that get you over the hump
I think you’re right Poker. With the trade done, GB will have $40 mil of dead cap in 2023. I think…..
I haven’t seen articles on this, but I’m pretty sure that if this is accurate, they’ll have to release guys they don’t want to release. I hope I am wrong.
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Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Yup and Silverstein breaks it down pretty well in this article.
Here's the Green Bay Packers salary cap situation after the trade of Aaron Rodgers
The short-term impact on the Packers' salary cap situation is not good, but it gets better after this season.
eu.packersnews.com
Thanks Poker. This year will be painful, but expectations are likely coming down.Yup and Silverstein breaks it down pretty well in this article.
Here's the Green Bay Packers salary cap situation after the trade of Aaron Rodgers
The short-term impact on the Packers' salary cap situation is not good, but it gets better after this season.eu.packersnews.com
The real pressure is on Rodgers to deliver a SB win to the Jets. Anything less, well welcome to NYC sportswriters Rodgers……
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Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
The Packers have a bunch of young WR's and probably soon to have young TE's, expectations of the Offense should never have been very high. I think that puts less pressure on Love to be perfect. Although, I still expect some fans won't settle for anything other than playoffs and will want both Gute and MLF's heads after the season is over.
You're probably right. And I'm not a huge fan of Gluten or MLF, but they deserve the chance to perform without Rodgers. This year will be interesting - maybe not from a win/loss standpoint - but in getting to cheer for an underdog for a change. Everyone is giving the Lions the NFC North. Let's play the games first.
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I'm hearing everywhere that the NFC North is wide open for the taking.
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Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
It wouldn't surprise me that much if we see the Teams flip places, from what we have gotten used to seeing. Hopefully, that is only in 2023 and the Packers can get back on top soon.
1. Lions
2. Bears
3. Vikings
4. Packers
tynimiller
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Which I think is very reasonable to say.
Lions would be my personal betting favorite...but I don't see any team that should be truly greatly favored over another. Could easily end up being a division that 9 or 10 wins takes it
Pkrjones
Cheesehead
Yeah I’m reluctant to put GB 4th. 2nd may be a stretch but doable as I think the Vikes will return to earth.
tynimiller
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My prediction for the NFC North is this:
32% chance Lions win it
30% chance Vikings win it
23% chance Packers win it
15% chance Bears win it
32% chance Lions win it
30% chance Vikings win it
23% chance Packers win it
15% chance Bears win it
OP
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Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
My choosing the Packers to finish 4th, was with and without my Green and Gold tinted glasses. Without them on, I just don't think they are going to be firing on ally cylinders on offense until next season and the teams ahead of them are just better. With the tinted glasses on, if the Packers aren't going to win many games, I'm going to be that Jack*ss again, that is fine with a good learning year, but finishing with a record that has us picking top 4 in every round of the 2024 draft.
OldSchool101
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Sounds like we will take our licks for 1 season here.
Our primary 2024 QB -$20.3Mil.
The league year to year Cap adjustment should be an additional +$18Mil.
Things get fixed real fast in 2024 when our average QB impact is ~8% of our total budget. (Was ~22% on average). I’m using % because in general other players get a cost of living increases and the cap increase is really eaten by inflation. However in 2024 that real $ difference is about ~$33Mil saved at QB (salary difference plus QB’s portion offset % of league increase)
Our primary 2024 QB -$20.3Mil.
The league year to year Cap adjustment should be an additional +$18Mil.
Things get fixed real fast in 2024 when our average QB impact is ~8% of our total budget. (Was ~22% on average). I’m using % because in general other players get a cost of living increases and the cap increase is really eaten by inflation. However in 2024 that real $ difference is about ~$33Mil saved at QB (salary difference plus QB’s portion offset % of league increase)
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Pkrjones
Cheesehead
I'm going to need help understanding the cap-magic that Gute pulled-off prior to trading AR.
Per PFT:
"Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.
The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by Week One. The Packers had been carrying this year’s allocation of the bonus — $14.575 million — along with his base salary for 2023. In a revision to the contract, the exercise window was shifted to erase the $14.575 million cap charge."
Not exactly sure if this "shift" reduces his dead $ from $40Mil to $25.4mil OR shifts his pro-rated SB for '23 to the Jets cap? I thought (but I reserve the right to WRONG) that the Jets cap hit was only his base salary of $1.165Mil but I'm seeing now that this same article has his '23 cap hit (for the Jets) at $15.79Mil.
So I'm asssuming another part of the trade was that the Jets absorbed $14.575Mil onto their cap and off of GB's?
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
Per PFT:
"Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.
The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by Week One. The Packers had been carrying this year’s allocation of the bonus — $14.575 million — along with his base salary for 2023. In a revision to the contract, the exercise window was shifted to erase the $14.575 million cap charge."
Not exactly sure if this "shift" reduces his dead $ from $40Mil to $25.4mil OR shifts his pro-rated SB for '23 to the Jets cap? I thought (but I reserve the right to WRONG) that the Jets cap hit was only his base salary of $1.165Mil but I'm seeing now that this same article has his '23 cap hit (for the Jets) at $15.79Mil.
So I'm asssuming another part of the trade was that the Jets absorbed $14.575Mil onto their cap and off of GB's?
Packers get short-term cap relief with minor adjustment to Aaron Rodgers's contract - ProFootballTalk
Before Aaron Rodgers left his old team, he signed a new contract.Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by...
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OP
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Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
If Love looks like the real deal in 2023, I would wager to think that the Packers will negotiate a new deal with him and that 5th year option price will be somewhat folded into it. The end result, a much lower cap hit for Love in 2024 and the ability for Gute to go hit the FA market for missing pieces.
If Love flops and the Packers are on the hook for the 5th year $20+M....oh well, the Packers will still be in rebuild mode and probably be drafting high and a QB.
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
I think I posted it and will look for it again. Silverstein did a pretty decent run down on it. IF he is correct, the Packers are still on the hook for all of his dead money, that can't be pushed out or taken away by the Jets. That amount is $40,313,568. They do not owe him any more money and the Jets picked up his $58M roster bonus.I'm going to need understanding the cap-magic that Gute pulled-off prior to trading AR.
Per PFT:
"Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.
The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by Week One. The Packers had been carrying this year’s allocation of the bonus — $14.575 million — along with his base salary for 2023. In a revision to the contract, the exercise window was shifted to erase the $14.575 million cap charge."
Not exactly sure if this "shift" reduces his dead $ from $40Mil to $25.4mil OR shifts his pro-rated SB for '23 to the Jets cap? I thought (but I reserve the right to WRONG) that the Jets cap hit was only his base salary of $1.165Mil but I'm seeing now that this same article has his '23 cap hit (for the Jets) at $15.79Mil.
So I'm asssuming another part of the trade was that the Jets absorbed $14.575Mil onto their cap and off of GB's?
Packers get short-term cap relief with minor adjustment to Aaron Rodgers's contract - ProFootballTalk
Before Aaron Rodgers left his old team, he signed a new contract.Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by...
I could be wrong in assuming this, but Rodgers still was paid bonus money on his contracts that he signed with the Packers and I assume that the amount of that money was somewhat based on the length of his contract. So it wasn't like Rodgers lost out on money owed by the Packers, in fact he probably got upfront money for this season.
OP
OP
Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Yeah now I see the confusion with Florio's most recent article.I'm going to need help understanding the cap-magic that Gute pulled-off prior to trading AR.
Per PFT:
"Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.
The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by Week One. The Packers had been carrying this year’s allocation of the bonus — $14.575 million — along with his base salary for 2023. In a revision to the contract, the exercise window was shifted to erase the $14.575 million cap charge."
Not exactly sure if this "shift" reduces his dead $ from $40Mil to $25.4mil OR shifts his pro-rated SB for '23 to the Jets cap? I thought (but I reserve the right to WRONG) that the Jets cap hit was only his base salary of $1.165Mil but I'm seeing now that this same article has his '23 cap hit (for the Jets) at $15.79Mil.
So I'm asssuming another part of the trade was that the Jets absorbed $14.575Mil onto their cap and off of GB's?
Packers get short-term cap relief with minor adjustment to Aaron Rodgers's contract - ProFootballTalk
Before Aaron Rodgers left his old team, he signed a new contract.Per multiple sources, Rodgers agreed to a simple tweaking of his deal that created $14.575 million in 2023 cap space for the Packers.The contract has a $58.3 million option bonus, which converts to base salary if not exercised by...
Seems like cap hit on the Packers is now less than originally thought.
The scenario you describe is very possible. My hope is that it doesn’t take long to get back to a playoff team. Rodgers first year was 6-10, so gotta keep it real.
Off topic: I saw his presser in NYC today. A nice hair cut, beard neatly trimmed - versus that thing he called a haircut last year, first the Nic Cage look, then leaving the top 8” long and shaving everything else so he looked like the under study for Predator. Well good luck NY. Who knows which version you’re getting?
Could be. Then the Packers cap hit would be $25 or $26 mil? Chump change!
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OP
Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
While I can't fully understand what Rodgers is going through, I kind of get it. Much like Favre, he left his only NFL home with both sides being bitter. NY is a fresh start for him and maybe he will change some of the things that didn't sit well in GB for him. I do know one thing, all the Jets fans and media are probably 110% behind him and that has got to feel good.
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Pokerbrat2000
Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
This is what I am still seeing for Rodgers. I just don't know if it is accurate, but it makes sense, unless some of the signing bonus was reduced or somehow picked up by the Jets.
Current Dead Contracts
| YEAR | BASE SALARY | SIGNING BONUS | WORKOUT BONUS | RESTRUC. BONUS | DEAD CAP HIT | YEARLY CASH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 |
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| - | $37,461,568 | - | $2,852,000 | $40,313,568 | -($0) |
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