2023 Salary cap riddle

[Pokerbrat2000]

Correct. At this point, paying Love for the fifth year is a roll of the dice. Well, maybe an educated guess, but still a guess. Another way to look at it is to pay him and see if he can do the job. His three years experience put him ahead of anyone else - well unless the Packers try to get into the top 5 for a QB. Unlikely.

I don't see the Packers trying to move up to take a QB in this draft, unless they absolutely know that Love is not the real deal. Otherwise, you build a team around Love and see where he goes. The coaches are seeing this guy practice, interacting with him at film study, on the sidelines during games, etc. They probably know what they have in him. My only doubt is this, if at this time last year, they knew they had a pretty solid starter in Love, I think Rodgers would have been traded for a Russel Wilson like haul. Maybe 2022 camp and preseason was when Love's growth showed enough, that this will be his year to start?

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don't see the Packers trying to move up to take a QB in this draft, unless they absolutely know that Love is not the real deal. Otherwise, you build a team around Love and see where he goes. The coaches are seeing this guy practice, interacting with him at film study, on the sidelines during games, etc. They probably know what they have in him. My only doubt is this, if at this time last year, they knew they had a pretty solid starter in Love, I think Rodgers would have been traded for a Russel Wilson like haul. Maybe 2022 camp and preseason was when Love's growth showed enough, that this will be his year to start?

That's a good observation. The past is the past, but I sure would have liked the haul of draft capital and personnel the Hags got for trading Wilson to Denver. But after back-to-back MVPs, rolling with Rodgers was the right decision, maybe not at $50 mil/year. Oh well.

I hope they see improvement from Love and have confidence he can manage this team as the starter. And in that case, agree with not trading up. Use draft capital to shore up weak spots - OT, S, TE, iDL - and move on. This is not a team in rebuild mode, not yet. There is talent. I have concerns about overall coaching quality, especially on defense. It looks like they're keeping Barry. That's a big mistake.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Maybe someone can double check that. Sure would be nice if Rodgers would agree to a restructure and a pay cut.

As I have pointed out several times there's no way to restructure Rodgers' contract to gain any significant cap space. Him forgoing fully guaranteed money is the only way to make that work and I'm not expecting that to happen.

The team has enough talent to compete, so there's no point in a complete tear down at this point.

I highly doubt the Packers have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot without Rodgers next season.

Looking at '24 right now, there are only 35 players under contract & the team available cap is +$35mil. This doesn't account for Gary on a new deal (or gone) and Love on a 5th year ($20mil) or gone. Also doesn't account for the other 16 players needed to even fill out a 53 man roster.

The Packers can keep the cap hits of both Gary and Love at a reasonable number for the 2024 season if they want to.

Agree and at some point, you have to jump off that ship for a few years and get cap healthy again.

It's possible to significantly improve the cap situation in a single season, it should take a maximum of two.

Personally, I just don't feel good enough about Love to give him $20 million on an educated hunch. I know many won't agree, but depending on the draft capital they have, and what could be acquired in a Rodgers trade, can they trade into the top 5 and get Young, Stroud, or Levis?

I highly doubt the Packers are interested in trading up to select one of the top quarterbacks in this year's draft. It will either be Rodgers or Love starting for them.

twenty million for a starter that isn’t on rookie deal is pretty much unheard of in todays NFL

Last season there were only 14 quarterbacks making more than $20 million a season.

 

[tynimiller]

Last season there were only 14 quarterbacks making more than $20 million a season.

How many starters not on rookie deals were beneath that though? It truly is the new normal for a starter to be at that figure. Any QB getting a deal nowadays that doesn’t get that isn’t deemed a teams surefire starter

 

[Pkrjones]

The Packers can keep the cap hits of both Gary and Love at a reasonable number for the 2024 season if they want to.

The main point of this thread, I believe, is that we (Packers) need to STOP pushing money into future years. I have no doubt that Gary & Love's cap #'s can be pushed out into '24, '25, even '28 if we want to... but I don't want to keep pushing money out ~ that's the most UNhealthy thing Gute continues to do, IMHO.

 

[tynimiller]

The main point of this thread, I believe, is that we (Packers) need to STOP pushing money into future years. I have no doubt that Gary & Love's cap #'s can be pushed out into '24, '25, even '28 if we want to... but I don't want to keep pushing money out ~ that's the most UNhealthy thing Gute continues to do, IMHO.

I believe you can only push out bonus spreads in void amounts for four years for new contracts or new restructures - your point doesn't change, just the year listed I believe is 2027 being the farthest possible.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How many starters not on rookie deals were beneath that though? It truly is the new normal for a starter to be at that figure. Any QB getting a deal nowadays that doesn’t get that isn’t deemed a teams surefire starter

You're right about that but Love definitely shouldn't be deemed a surefire starter at this point.

The main point of this thread, I believe, is that we (Packers) need to STOP pushing money into future years. I have no doubt that Gary & Love's cap #'s can be pushed out into '24, '25, even '28 if we want to... but I don't want to keep pushing money out ~ that's the most UNhealthy thing Gute continues to do, IMHO.

It depends on if the Packers feel they have another legit shot at winning a Super Bowl with Rodgers being their quarterback. In that case I would definitely prefer the team to push as much cap hit in future seasons as possible. If they don't consider that to be a realistic option than I agree there's no reason to continue it in the same way the front office has done over the past few years.

You need to realize that most contracts in the NFL are backloaded with cap hits being pushed into future seasons to some degree though.

 

[Krabs]

You're right about that but Love definitely shouldn't be deemed a surefire starter at this point.

If Rodgers is traded then Love is the surefire starter. They're not going to invest four years into a guy and then have an open quarterback competition. I'm sure they will take a QB in this upcoming draft, but Love will be given the reigns and he will have a very long leash.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If Rodgers is traded then Love is the surefire starter. They're not going to invest four years into a guy and then have an open quarterback competition. I'm sure they will take a QB in this upcoming draft, but Love will be given the reigns and he will have a very long leash.

I think this makes the most sense Krabs. Yeah they'd have to pull the trigger on his $20 mil fifth year option, but that's not bad in today's QB market. If Love really sucks, then they'd have to try something else, and so I agree they'll take a QB in the upcoming draft. This all assumes Rodgers is gone.

What concerns me more is the cap. Rodgers contract has a major impact if he's not traded (maybe even if he is traded), paying Love $20 mil will hurt unless he's Rodgers 2.0, which I doubt. It's shaping up to be a lean two or three years in GB. That said, if they do have to rebuild, they have a lot of talent to trade for draft capital.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think this makes the most sense Krabs. Yeah they'd have to pull the trigger on his $20 mil fifth year option, but that's not bad in today's QB market. If Love really sucks, then they'd have to try something else, and so I agree they'll take a QB in the upcoming draft. This all assumes Rodgers is gone.

What concerns me more is the cap. Rodgers contract has a major impact if he's not traded (maybe even if he is traded), paying Love $20 mil will hurt unless he's Rodgers 2.0, which I doubt. It's shaping up to be a lean two or three years in GB. That said, if they do have to rebuild, they have a lot of talent to trade for draft capital.

What’s tough is we essentially missed out on Love’s rookie deal. His 4th season is overlapped by sunk monies.
Then If Love looks really good? We’re right back to $40m a season etc.

The best case scenario is almost to have Love look just ok+. Sign him to a shorter 3yr/80m type deal and then him explode onto the scene in his 2nd starting season as a top 10 QB. Then we’d be averaging $25m per for 4 seasons (20+80/4) on a cheap deal.

Another scenario is Love bombs. We bring in a top 2-3 college QB and get that Rookie $$ contract. The good news is in Loves scenario, he’ll be 4 years in a system and we should know pretty quickly what we got (inside 1-2 seasons)

PS. I just realized our checking account is as bare as a Piglets derrière.
Forget everything I just said!
Fire Sale these Beetches! (Said just like Dave Chappelle in frantic mode!)

 

[Firethorn1001]

If Rodgers had a 'I need these guys back otherwise I'm going to take my ball and go home' list then Amos, Lowry, Reed, Cobb, Lewis, Crosby and Tonyan didn't get extensions to push out their void years. All will be FAs now. Looks like they are clearing some of the decks of future cap pain at least.

Granted, they could be back.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Rodgers had a 'I need these guys back otherwise I'm going to take my ball and go home' list then Amos, Lowry, Reed, Cobb, Lewis, Crosby and Tonyan didn't get extensions to push out their void years. All will be FAs now. Looks like they are clearing some of the decks of future cap pain at least.

Granted, they could be back.

Probably a good time to take the $16.4 M cap hit for these guys. Those cans are done being kicked.
 
I think the only way they bring any of Cobb, Crosby, Lewis and Tonyan back, before free agency hits, would be if Rodgers demands it, as a part of staying. Otherwise, they may still try to resign some of those 7 players, but it wouldn't have been wise to do it before they know what's up with #12.

 

[tynimiller]

If Rodgers had a 'I need these guys back otherwise I'm going to take my ball and go home' list then Amos, Lowry, Reed, Cobb, Lewis, Crosby and Tonyan didn't get extensions to push out their void years. All will be FAs now. Looks like they are clearing some of the decks of future cap pain at least.

Granted, they could be back.

That was expected honestly and we signed Campbell and one other last year after their void year time frame hit.

Rodgers simply hasn't made his mind up plain and simple - he has mentioned names that might impact his decision and all were obvious for anyone which has listened to him; Cobb, Crosby, Bobby, Big Dog and Lazard.

 

[OldSchool101]

That was expected honestly and we signed Campbell and one other last year after their void year time frame hit.

Rodgers simply hasn't made his mind up plain and simple - he has mentioned names that might impact his decision and all were obvious for anyone which has listened to him; Cobb, Crosby, Bobby, Big Dog and Lazard.

I just had a moment of clarity and while I Fully understand that this is a serious conversation. It sounds like an episode of the reality show Big Brother. Alliances and all that.

In that demand scenario. My return message to Rodgers would be for gosh sakes this is football! Let’s stop the crazy you’re actually freaking us out. Talk about leaning surreal

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If Rodgers is traded then Love is the surefire starter. They're not going to invest four years into a guy and then have an open quarterback competition. I'm sure they will take a QB in this upcoming draft, but Love will be given the reigns and he will have a very long leash.

I was actually talking about the quality of his performance. Nobody knows at this point if Love will develop into a decent starter.

What concerns me more is the cap. Rodgers contract has a major impact if he's not traded (maybe even if he is traded), paying Love $20 mil will hurt unless he's Rodgers 2.0, which I doubt. It's shaping up to be a lean two or three years in GB. That said, if they do have to rebuild, they have a lot of talent to trade for draft capital.

One thing that has hardly been mentioned is the fact that the Packers can extend Love's contract next offseason even if they exercise his fifth-year option until May. That could result in his cap hit being reduced for 2024.

Unfortunately I don't see a ton of talent the Packers could trade away to acquire draft capital to rebuild in a hurry.

What’s tough is we essentially missed out on Love’s rookie deal. His 4th season is overlapped by sunk monies.

If only the Packers could have been known that at the time they selected Love. Wait a moment...

 

[Mondio]

If Love turns into what they thought, I'm fine with them figuring out the money and spending it when the time comes.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That was expected honestly and we signed Campbell and one other last year after their void year time frame hit.

It was Tonyan that they resigned last year, after letting his deal expire. He spent most of 2021 on IR.

Was glad to see the Packers not push that $16+M into the future on those 7 guys. Amounts to a really decent Free agent signing. They are going to have to do it again next year and probably the year after as well.

I know some aren't worried about Rodgers decision until the start of free agency, but I think decisions like this might have been done differently if they knew Rodgers was going to be a Packer next year and his "terms" were to keep some of those 7 players.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If Love turns into what they thought, I'm fine with them figuring out the money and spending it when the time comes.

The Packers won't have another choice but if Love turns out to be a good starting quarterback it would have been smart to take advantage of him being cheap over the course of his rookie deal.

I know some aren't worried about Rodgers decision until the start of free agency, but I think decisions like this might have been done differently if they knew Rodgers was going to be a Packer next year and his "terms" were to keep some of those 7 players.

There hasn't been a decision made on either of the seven players whose contracts voided this week. The team could still re-sign any of them before the start of free agency.

 

[Mondio]

The Packers won't have another choice but if Love turns out to be a good starting quarterback it would have been smart to take advantage of him being cheap over the course of his rookie deal.



There hasn't been a decision made on either of the seven players whose contracts voided this week. The team could still re-sign any of them before the start of free agency.

I can't really spend too much time on what Love could have been these past 3 seasons. He looked like he could have sucked during his rookie contract for much of it and maybe he'd be a young broken QB who's out of the league in a year because of it. Who knows.

My point, I hope he's great, and we have to worry about paying him a lot. It's a good problem to have. Sure, we'd all love the rookie who takes us to super bowls for 3 years before getting an expensive contract, but great QB's are rare, if we have one, i'm happy to pay him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There hasn't been a decision made on either of the seven players whose contracts voided this week. The team could still re-sign any of them before the start of free agency.

Of course the team can re-sign them, but the entire amount ($16+M) of all of the players dead cap, is now hitting the 2023 cap. If Rodgers and the Packers finally come to some kind of agreement to keep him in GB, that is money that the Packers can no longer push part of it out, to go even further "all-in."

Look around the NFL and you will see that teams are making some big decisions. You are really wearing blinders if you think the Rodgers decision has no effect on what the team is doing and the direction it will ultimately take. Unless, of course the team has already decided the direction and they will let him retire or trade him. If that is the case, they are proceeding without many of the "what-ifs". "What if Rodgers plays and wants some of the now FA ex-teammates back. What if he wants a new contract, how will it effect the cap? What if we want to draft for the future and not for the right now?" The only decision being held up, in the case of the Packers moving on, is who do they trade him to, what they will get and do with the trade assets.

So yes, Rodgers decisions impacts the team greatly and delaying just continues to create more work and question marks for the staff, dealing with all the variables surrounding the 3 different ways the scenario could play out.

 

[OldSchool101]

If only the Packers could have been known that at the time they selected Love. Wait a moment...

oh I think the Packers fully intended on moving on from Rodgers somewhere around now. What put a kink in plans is Rodgers putting together back to back elite seasons.

Again, I know it’s easy to make assumptions today. Yet #12 had just come off back to back seasons with waning production. Had Aaron been anywhere close to MVP QB etc.. in 2019? I’m pretty confident that Love doesn’t get selected in the 2020 draft.

Add to that Junior QB getting ZERO meaningful Reps in an anomaly Covid season. Virtual meetings and all that craziness didn’t help him his Contractual advantage. No GM on the planet Earth can predict a worldwide pandemic ahead of time.

I fully agree on a miscalculation by our GM on #12 caused this train wreck. I personally would’ve drafted an O weapon. However I also can understand what Brian was looking at, regardless of me not agreeing. Brian also wasn’t at fault for the combined effect “lost Covid Rookie season” only making things worse.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Let's not forget that Love was a back-up QB and an insurance policy, which he continues to be, to this day. While he hasn't played any significant snaps, I can create a list of players that turned out to be undeserving of a first round pick as well. To this day, I have no problem with the Love pick, even if he doesn't play another snap for the Packers. If it turns out, he becomes the Packers new starter, and excels at it, his story will be told for years to come.

 

[OldSchool101]

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2020/ny-post-2020-steve-serby?date=2020-04-23


https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2020/nfl-mocks-2020-brenden-armour?date=2020-04-23

Oh @captainWIMM you had asked me for this awhile back (when I had little time etc) and I crossed paths with it recently.

In the first 25 consecutive Mock sites in 2020. TWO Had Jordan going to the Packers. Around 20/25 had Jordan Love being selected Day 1 with the earliest around #17 and latest at #30. Jordan going #24 overall to Saints seemed to be most popular across a good sample size of sites.

While us Packers fans are primarily stunned and many didn’t initially like the draft, it also wasn’t absurd for GB to select a QB as it was a well-known tertiary need.

My guess is GB had Jordan ranked on their board slightly before #26 overall. Likely in the top 15-25 overall area or imo, they wouldn’t have perfected a trade using a 4th rounder. They obviously saw him as a cheaper stab at QB once he fell past the Saints #24.

One thing he does possess is he has a lot of desire to win. In College seemed to get better under pressure and that’s hard to teach. The technical parts can be taught. But he managed games well and has a competitive nose. He’ll go down fighting and take a couple people with him. That 2019 regression season (relative to a career season in 2018) was an anomaly. A new system/OC and they only carried 2 returning players, Love being 1



Jordan Love lost to just 2 opponents (both ranked) in 2018.
#11 Michigan State L 31-38
#23 @ Boise State L 24-33
This is a good one to watch.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My point, I hope he's great, and we have to worry about paying him a lot. It's a good problem to have. Sure, we'd all love the rookie who takes us to super bowls for 3 years before getting an expensive contract, but great QB's are rare, if we have one, i'm happy to pay him.

I definitely agree that it would be amazing if Love turns out to be a great quarterback and I would be happy if it means the Packers need to pay him as an elite QB. I'm concerned the team will exercise his fifth-year option, fully guaranteeing at least $20 million and he ends up struggling though.

Look around the NFL and you will see that teams are making some big decisions.

Please enlighten me, what transactions that have happened since the Super Bowl ended would you consider a big decision?

You are really wearing blinders if you think the Rodgers decision has no effect on what the team is doing and the direction it will ultimately take.

You really need to improve your reading comprehension. Nobody has suggested that Rodgers' decision has no effect on what the team will be doing moving forward. That would be extremely stupid.

oh I think the Packers fully intended on moving on from Rodgers somewhere around now. What put a kink in plans is Rodgers putting together back to back elite seasons.

The Packers shouldn't have drafted a quarterback in the first round if they intended to keep Rodgers for another three seasons. With the rookie wage scale in place teams want to take advantage of having a cheap starter at QB for as long as possible.

Again, I know it’s easy to make assumptions today. Yet #12 had just come off back to back seasons with waning production. Had Aaron been anywhere close to MVP QB etc.. in 2019? I’m pretty confident that Love doesn’t get selected in the 2020 draft.

Just for the record, I didn't like the selection of Love from the get-go as I was confident Rodgers would be able to bounce back.

Add to that Junior QB getting ZERO meaningful Reps in an anomaly Covid season. Virtual meetings and all that craziness didn’t help him his Contractual advantage. No GM on the planet Earth can predict a worldwide pandemic ahead of time.

I'm sorry but the 2020 NFL draft was held via videoconferencing with Goodell announcing the picks from his home. I hope Gutekunst realised a world wide pandemic was going on at that point.

Let's not forget that Love was a back-up QB and an insurance policy, which he continues to be, to this day. While he hasn't played any significant snaps, I can create a list of players that turned out to be undeserving of a first round pick as well. To this day, I have no problem with the Love pick, even if he doesn't play another snap for the Packers. If it turns out, he becomes the Packers new starter, and excels at it, his story will be told for years to come.

Successful teams don't spend a first round on a player who is destined to sit on the bench for his entire rookie deal. Especially when having a HOF starting quarterback getting up there in age and the team having made the NFCCG the previous year.

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2020/ny-post-2020-steve-serby?date=2020-04-23


https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-drafts/2020/nfl-mocks-2020-brenden-armour?date=2020-04-23

Oh @captainWIMM you had asked me for this awhile back (when I had little time etc) and I crossed paths with it recently.

In the first 25 consecutive Mock sites in 2020. TWO Had Jordan going to the Packers. Around 20/25 had Jordan Love being selected Day 1 with the earliest around #17 and latest at #30. Jordan going #24 overall to Saints seemed to be most popular across a good sample size of sites.

While us Packers fans are primarily stunned and many didn’t initially like the draft, it also wasn’t absurd for GB to select a QB as it was a well-known tertiary need.

My guess is GB had Jordan ranked on their board slightly before #26 overall. Likely in the top 15-25 overall area or imo, they wouldn’t have perfected a trade using a 4th rounder. They obviously saw him as a cheaper stab at QB once he fell past the Saints #24.

One thing he does possess is he has a lot of desire to win. In College seemed to get better under pressure and that’s hard to teach. The technical parts can be taught. But he managed games well and has a competitive nose. He’ll go down fighting and take a couple people with him. That 2019 regression season (relative to a career season in 2018) was an anomaly. A new system/OC and they only carried 2 returning players, Love being 1



Jordan Love lost to just 2 opponents (both ranked) in 2018.
#11 Michigan State L 31-38
#23 @ Boise State L 24-33
This is a good one to watch.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

I don't think I ever questioned that Love was considered a potential first round pick in the 2020 draft. Regardless, I didn't like the pick and still don't up until now.

 

[Pkrjones]

I definitely agree that it would be amazing if Love turns out to be a great quarterback and I would be happy if it means the Packers need to pay him as an elite QB. I'm concerned the team will exercise his fifth-year option, fully guaranteeing at least $20 million and he ends up struggling though.

The alternative, however, is what the NY Giants are experiencing right now. They didn't 5th year option Daniel Jones last May @ $22Mil and are now faced with Franchise Tagging him at $32.4Mil (Non-exclusive Tag amount). Does Gute risk NOT paying Love the 5th year @ $20.27mil and having him potentially play well, in which case Love would cost $35Mil on the Tag (or more on a long-term deal)?

***Edit*** This is making the assumption that Rodgers either retires or is traded & not QB'ing in Green Bay. Love gets the nod over Ettling and/or a rookie through 2024 season at a cost of his $3.9Mil in '23 and $20.27Mil in '24 unless Gute decides to extend him before '24 to lighten the cap hit.