2023 Draft Talk

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think just moving up those 2 spots to #13 is going to give the Packers a shot at either JSN or a top offensive lineman. Gute will then have to ask himself if its worth trading down towards the end of the round and use that on a top TE, S or the 6th or 7th best EDGE or OL guy in the draft.

I am hoping that maybe one of the top 5 or so QB's falls and a team is willing to give the Packers a haul to move up to #13 to get him.

 

[tynimiller]

I think just moving up those 2 spots to #13 is going to give the Packers a shot at either JSN or a top offensive lineman. Gute will then have to ask himself if its worth trading down towards the end of the round and use that on a top TE, S or the 6th or 7th best EDGE or OL guy in the draft.

I am hoping that maybe one of the top 5 or so QB's falls and a team is willing to give the Packers a haul to move up to #13 to get him.

If he really wants JSN, he may have to trade with Houston right before too...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If he really wants JSN, he may have to trade with Houston right before too...

I'm hoping that the Texans pass on a QB with pick #2 and use that #12 pick for a QB. Of course, I am hoping that every pick before the Packers is a QB, RB, CB ILB, K, LS or P

I remember seeing an article about the Texans not wanting to select CJ Stroud, due to who his agent is, David Mulugheta. That is the same agent that represent Deshaun Watson and there is bad blood between him (agent) and the Texans because of it.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm hoping that the Texans pass on a QB with pick #2 and use that #12 pick for a QB. Of course, I am hoping that every pick before the Packers is a QB, RB, CB ILB, K, LS or P

I want JSN off the board - I just don't see a top 10 prospect outside of the inflated QB ones. Just don't see it. I like him, he is this drafts WR1 but....nope.

So I'd understand it just not be a fan of it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I want JSN off the board - I just don't see a top 10 prospect outside of the inflated QB ones. Just don't see it. I like him, he is this drafts WR1 but....nope.

So I'd understand it just not be a fan of it.

I feel the same way. I wouldn't be unhappy with JSN, but I would much rather see the Packers trade down and pick up more picks in the 2nd and or 3rd rounds. As you have pointed out, there is a lot of talent in this draft and they should be able to find it in those 2 rounds.

 

[DoURant]

I want JSN off the board - I just don't see a top 10 prospect outside of the inflated QB ones. Just don't see it. I like him, he is this drafts WR1 but....nope.

So I'd understand it just not be a fan of it.

After 20+ years of not taking a WR in the 1st Rd, why start now.... other than to be petty. With a new young QB, OL is the logical way to go in the 1st Rd. Protect Love, and Run the d@mn ball!. TE, EDGE, and WR should be prioritized in Rds 2 and 3, where all 3 positions have great options. 2023 needs to be a run first team, if Love is slinging it 30+ times a game, it's going to be a long miserable season, with the whole WR room 1st and 2nd year guys.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

After 20+ years of not taking a WR in the 1st Rd, why start now.... other than to be petty. With a new young QB, OL is the logical way to go in the 1st Rd. Protect Love, and Run the d@mn ball!. TE, EDGE, and WR should be prioritized in Rds 2 and 3, where all 3 positions have great options. 2023 needs to be a run first team, if Love is slinging it 30+ times a game, it's going to be a long miserable season, with the whole WR room 1st and 2nd year guys.

Normally, I am not a fan of first round OL picks. The Packers historically have done pretty good with 2nd and later round picks for the OL. However, with RT being a bit of a ? mark and Bahk perhaps playing his final year in GB, I am warming up to the idea. However, I still say trade down, if you really like an OT late in the 1st grab him. IF all the TE's are still on the board, grab the best one. A solid TE can do more than just open up the passing game, if he can block too.

 

[DoURant]

However, I still say trade down, if you really like an OT late in the 1st grab him. IF all the TE's are still on the board, grab the best one. A solid TE can do more than just open up the passing game, if he can block too.

My gut is if the Packers trade back in the 1st, they are picking a TE. I also feel the 1st TE they take in this draft will most likely be a good blocking TE, which enforces your statement.

 

[OldSchool101]

Preston Smith is still a decent pass rusher. In addition I'm optimistic Gary will be ready for the start of the season.



Barkley should definitely work as a cautionary tale for teams interested in adding a generational talent at running back in the first round. That move didn't work out for the Giants at all as they went a combined 19-46 in his first four seasons with the team.

It's all but certain that Jones will be with the Packers for another two seasons.



I highly doubt there's any truth to that.

Was Jones not owed 1 Penny had he left GB? I’m asking because many of these higher paid Packers agree to Signing Bonus and they don’t necessarily get that fully salary upfront. Or am I wrong again?

 

[tynimiller]

Was Jones not owed 1 Penny had he left GB? I’m asking because many of these higher paid Packers agree to Signing Bonus and they don’t necessarily get that fully salary upfront. Or am I wrong again?

Didn’t you realize Jones is worthless to the league and only valuable in GB. He would have barely got above league minimum if he’d been a FA due to cut it seems….

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Preston Smith is still a decent pass rusher. In addition I'm optimistic Gary will be ready for the start of the season.

Preston is a good OLB but the pass rush disappeared once Gary got hurt.

 

[thequick12]

Didn’t you realize Jones is worthless to the league and only valuable in GB. He would have barely got above league minimum if he’d been a FA due to cut it seems….

Ok I was one of very few in the pay Aaron Jones camp and they did and it has worked out.

But lets not kid ourselves Jones took a pay cut this off season not a restructure and not because he wanted to stay in GB that bad. He did it because the rb market has fallen off, hes approaching 30 and his agent told him he couldnt get more on the open market

 

[Schultz]

Captain help me please. What did David Montgomery get to sign with Detroit? What is Aaron Jones being paid by the Packers? IMO Jones would get between 10 & 15% more than DMont on the open market. Not asking for a friend this time.

 

[tynimiller]

Ok I was one of very few in the pay Aaron Jones camp and they did and it has worked out.

But lets not kid ourselves Jones took a pay cut this off season not a restructure and not because he wanted to stay in GB that bad. He did it because the rb market has fallen off, hes approaching 30 and his agent told him he couldnt get more on the open market

He would have gotten as much money elsewhere IMO. Next year will be the real test of what he desires - if he really wants to stay an even BIGGER pay cut would be needed.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Regarding the posts suggesting a trade down, I don't see the sense in swapping 15 and 13 just to trade back. To me is seems the Pack are trying to move up and now have some more capital to do that. I won't be surprised if we see a move to 8 for JSN if the team wants to ensure we get him. I don't see him getting past Houston. You want him, gotta go get him. I think 1st and 3rd for 8?

 

[tynimiller]

Regarding the posts suggesting a trade down, I don't see the sense in swapping 15 and 13 just to trade back. To me is seems the Pack are trying to move up and now have some more capital to do that. I won't be surprised if we see a move to 8 for JSN if the team wants to ensure we get him. I don't see him getting past Houston. You want him, gotta go get him. I think 1st and 3rd for 8?

You are not being a good GM if trade down is not always in your formulas and plans - now only if the prospect you see worth the pick isn't there OR if no one gives you the right stuff.

Getting into the Top 10 is expensive and not a move I want Gute to do for JSN...now doing such a move for a LT of the future they love or an elite edge prospect I get too.

Sitting there, trading back or trading up all are on the table. And now at 13 you have to give up possibly slightly less to move up...but also you get more in a trade back scenario potentially as well.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

He would have gotten as much money elsewhere IMO. Next year will be the real test of what he desires - if he really wants to stay an even BIGGER pay cut would be needed.

That will be interesting to watch, since the "actual money paid out" are contracted to be about the same in 2024 as they are this season ($12M). The big difference is how it is contracted to be paid and the corresponding cap hits. 2023 is mostly accounted for in his March 17th $7M roster bonus and was further pushed out into the future. Whereas in 2024, it is mostly in his non-guaranteed salary.

2023: $8.197M cap hit $18.065M Dead cap

2024: $17.717M $12.348M DC

The Packers could and probably would split that $12.348M over 2024 and 2025 if they do a post June 1 cut/trade.

The question will be, is Aaron Jones still worth paying $12M in 2024 and if he is, they can restructure his contract again and soften the cap hit a bit, but eventually, that money will have to be accounted for. As you said, the ideal situation is if he is still playing at a decent level, he takes a pay cut in 2024 and a restructure is repeated.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think just moving up those 2 spots to #13 is going to give the Packers a shot at either JSN or a top offensive lineman. Gute will then have to ask himself if its worth trading down towards the end of the round and use that on a top TE, S or the 6th or 7th best EDGE or OL guy in the draft.

I am hoping that maybe one of the top 5 or so QB's falls and a team is willing to give the Packers a haul to move up to #13 to get him.

Exactly what I was thinking. That would be ideal.
In many mocks, I used scenario’s that were successful even when a substantial trade offer wasn’t made. Will Levis and Bijan were available and I traded back to Steelers #17.
I’d scoop an additional 2nd Rounder (in some capacity of round swaps) and then 1 or both players came off almost immediately. That means we really only traded back 2 or 3 slots, but got between an additional
2nd-3rd round value player.

That works especially well if we’ve got 3-4 players pretty evenly graded at #13. Were very likely to get one at #17 overall.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sounds like the Titans might be thinking about drafting a QB with their 11th pick.

I guess the more I think about that 13th pick, the more I want one of the top 4 QB's to fall and be available then. That would possibly set Gutes phone on fire, with teams that still want a QB. Who knows what Gute could fleece another team for by trading that pick to them.

 

[thequick12]

He would have gotten as much money elsewhere IMO. Next year will be the real test of what he desires - if he really wants to stay an even BIGGER pay cut would be needed.

You think? At this point the Packers dont save much by cutting him, ie they are pretty well pot committed. 17m cap hit 12 m dead cap roughly 5 m of cap savings to be had. But do you really cut him over that or us it better to have him helping 2nd year starter Love out at 17 m than gone at 12 m

And id agree he probably could of gotten as much elsewhere. His agent could have been wrong maybe somebody would of paid him more but Im sure the conversation was had

 

[Schultz]

IMO QBs are likely to go at 1,4,7 & 12. Possibly at 11. Smaller chances at 5 & 6. Then there is always the trade up for a QB. IMO I actually have no idea.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Then there is always the trade up for a QB.

I could see the Raiders or Titans leapfrogging the Colts, by trading for the Cardinals #3 pick and getting the QB they want. Then if the Colts QB is still there, the first 4 picks could end up being QB's.

If the Texans take Stroud with the #2 pick, it would make sense that they take JSN with their #12 pick. But like I posted before, that is rumored to be a "BIG if", due to who Stroud's agent is.

But yeah...who knows.

 

[Raleigh NC Packers Fan]

I think just moving up those 2 spots to #13 is going to give the Packers a shot at either JSN or a top offensive lineman. Gute will then have to ask himself if its worth trading down towards the end of the round and use that on a top TE, S or the 6th or 7th best EDGE or OL guy in the draft.

I am hoping that maybe one of the top 5 or so QB's falls and a team is willing to give the Packers a haul to move up to #13 to get him.

I really liked the idea of moving down with pick 15, but now that we have pick 13, I don't.

I think we have a really great shot at either a top left tackle or JSN. I also read somewhere that players chosen with the 13 pick have a great track record of becoming pro bowlers.

There's also the chance a top 10 player could fall.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Was Jones not owed 1 Penny had he left GB?

The Packers wouldn't have had to pay Jones a cent if they released him at the start of the league year.

Didn’t you realize Jones is worthless to the league and only valuable in GB. He would have barely got above league minimum if he’d been a FA due to cut it seems….

Do you honestly believe Jones would have been offered $23 million (all but fully guaranteed) over the next two years in free agency?

I highly doubt it.

Preston is a good OLB but the pass rush disappeared once Gary got hurt.

You're right the Packers need a productive pass rusher opposite of Preston to be successful. He's a decent #2 though.

Captain help me please. What did David Montgomery get to sign with Detroit? What is Aaron Jones being paid by the Packers? IMO Jones would get between 10 & 15% more than DMont on the open market. Not asking for a friend this time.

Montgomery signed a three-year, $18 million with the Lions.

That will be interesting to watch, since the "actual money paid out" are contracted to be about the same in 2024 as they are this season ($12M). The big difference is how it is contracted to be paid and the corresponding cap hits. 2023 is mostly accounted for in his March 17th $7M roster bonus and was further pushed out into the future. Whereas in 2024, it is mostly in his non-guaranteed salary.

2023: $8.197M cap hit $18.065M Dead cap

2024: $17.717M $12.348M DC

The Packers could and probably would split that $12.348M over 2024 and 2025 if they do a post June 1 cut/trade.

The question will be, is Aaron Jones still worth paying $12M in 2024 and if he is, they can restructure his contract again and soften the cap hit a bit, but eventually, that money will have to be accounted for. As you said, the ideal situation is if he is still playing at a decent level, he takes a pay cut in 2024 and a restructure is repeated.

I don't believe the Packers will move on from Jones next offseason to save $5 million of cap space.

 

[tynimiller]

You know who I am thinking more and more might be a surprise pick for GB should he make it to the third...Tanner McKee. Has the arm presence to make any throw, cerebral and intelligent, could easily consume the MLF system...not a fleet footed passer so would be in full reliance on the system making things happen not him creating.

The bonus with McKee is that yes he is skilled and some were arguing he was and some say still is the 5th best QB in this draft - he would not be a threat to Jordan Love, but also wouldn't be a "JAG" prospect either with zero expectations would the need arise for him to take snaps.

Tanner and Jaren Hall are two higher floor but lesser known ceiling types that I think Packer nation shouldn't be surprised if late Day 2 or early Day 3 we see coming to GB