2023 Draft Talk

[Deleted member 6794]

Well actually if you think about the scenario I lined up - the likelihood would be that Tom would slide to LT or RT should one go down and Myers back in at center. Newman is fine as a depth back up at RG and RT - I didn't even say primary...because who knows what Jones, Tenuta or Walker might even have to say about that this year.

Gotcha. I agree that Newman would be fine as a backup at right guard while being behind Tom on the depth chart at tackle.

I know people are all worried about the OL, but lets not forget that Love is going to be a lot more mobile than Rodgers.

Love doesn't have the ability to read defenses as Rodgers though. Therefore a good offensive line would be more important than with Rodgers.

 

[Dantés]

If it’s true, as I’ve heard suggested, that Jalin Hyatt’s in-game speed data is elite (i.e. faster that bud 4.40 timed speed), I could see him still being in play for the Packers.

His ball skills (tracking and plucking) are pretty rare for a guy with that kind of speed. I still think he could really change an offense and would allow them to use Watson in more creative ways.

 

[AmishMafia]

If it’s true, as I’ve heard suggested, that Jalin Hyatt’s in-game speed data is elite (i.e. faster that bud 4.40 timed speed), I could see him still being in play for the Packers.

His ball skills (tracking and plucking) are pretty rare for a guy with that kind of speed. I still think he could really change an offense and would allow them to use Watson in more creative ways.

Absolutely. I would much rather get Hyatt late in the first than JSN at 15. But maybe Hyatt will go higher than most of us realize. I wouldn't be shocked if he is the 2nd WR off the board. JSN has some elite movement and route running skills, but Hyatt is a great route runner, and can do things athletically that JSN can only dream of. Well, maybe I'm getting carried away.

We seem to go for the bigger blocking WRs. Not sure that's JSN or Hyatts baliwick.

 

[Dantés]

Absolutely. I would much rather get Hyatt late in the first than JSN at 15. But maybe Hyatt will go higher than most of us realize. I wouldn't be shocked if he is the 2nd WR off the board. JSN has some elite movement and route running skills, but Hyatt is a great route runner, and can do things athletically that JSN can only dream of. Well, maybe I'm getting carried away.

We seem to go for the bigger blocking WRs. Not sure that's JSN or Hyatts baliwick.

Yeah they’re radically different players. I like them both, but I could see the Packers coveting the speed more than the slot savvy.

I could see some surprises in this class via players going earlier than expected just because it’s a down draft and there probably won’t be a lot of buyers in the trade down market.

Good to hear from you btw.

 

[OldSchool101]

After last years draft full court press at WR, I’m hypothesizing a second year of half court press (half the top end options). I really think we should wait until Rounds 2-5 area for some Pass catchers. My initial thinking is ideally using a #45 and one of our 4th or 5th Rounders at Wideout.
That = Going after Edge, TE, DL/OL early (depending on best available) because my thinking is some good ones will get pushed slightly down the board.

I’m also hoping we have 4 QB’s selected before our first pick. That leaves us looking at the 11th best non QB. That’s likely the;
3rd best Edge
2nd/3rd Best OT
2nd/3rd best WR
2nd/3rd best CB
2nd best DT
1st Choice TE
1st Choice at Safety


That aligns pretty spot on with our primary needs. We really could almost use 2 Safeties, 2 TE’s and 2 DT’s.
Thus getting a dynamic one early makes some logical sense.

Lastly, if our guy isn’t there at #15 don’t reach. Trade back into that early 20-something and get another Day 2 selection in process. That allows us to get our top 1-2 choice at TE by still staying ahead of those 5 teams needing one in the mid 20’s.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Absolutely. I would much rather get Hyatt late in the first than JSN at 15. But maybe Hyatt will go higher than most of us realize. I wouldn't be shocked if he is the 2nd WR off the board. JSN has some elite movement and route running skills, but Hyatt is a great route runner, and can do things athletically that JSN can only dream of. Well, maybe I'm getting carried away.

We seem to go for the bigger blocking WRs. Not sure that's JSN or Hyatts baliwick.

I have to disagree here. The only thing Hyatt can do that JSN could only dream of is run faster in a straight line. JSN has elite change of direction and is definitely the more polished route runner. Hyatt played in a gimmick offense that gave him a free release on almost every play. The knock on him is that he didn't show a varied route tree because of this offense. JSN on the other hand has one of the most elite 3 cone times you're ever going to see for a receiver and still isn't exactly slow with a 4.5 forty. Hyatt has a 7.06 3 cone according to "Draft Buzz" which I don't know where they got that number from, but it's not exactly great. I have more confidence right now with JSN's ability to separate over Hyatt. To me, all I'm seeing is speed from Hyatt, but his other testing numbers other than 3 cone were really good so who knows.

 

[OldSchool101]

If we garner a 42, 112, 143 this season for Rodgers (Being conservative) then a trade back would put us in really good position to fill lots of holes.
#26 OT, Darnell Wright (Ravens)
#38 TE, D.Washington (use 42/143)
#45 Edge, BJ Ojulari
#56 WR, Cedrick Tillman (f/Ravens)
#78 S, Jammie Robinson
#112 S, Ja’yahir Brown
(Rodgers trade)
#116 TE, Zack Kuntz
#143 (used in trade up)
#149 DT, Mike Morris
#170 WR, Andrei Iosavis
7th CB, Mekhi Blackmon
7th DT, Dante Stills
7th LB, Marte Mapu
7th QB, Malik Cunningham

Note: I found it very difficult to find quality players at every position of need and several are lightly wishing, but realistic. The point I’m making is it’s imperative we get everything we can for Aaron Rodgers, anything less than 42, 43 is going to be bordering on painful to fill all our holes with quality players. Even here we might need to get a veteran DT or WR until guys are up to speed.

 

[tynimiller]

If we garner a 42, 112, 143 this season for Rodgers (Being conservative) then a trade back would put us in really good position to fill lots of holes.
#26 OT, Darnell Wright (Ravens)
#38 TE, D.Washington (use 42/143)
#45 Edge, BJ Ojulari
#56 WR, Cedrick Tillman (f/Ravens)
#78 S, Jammie Robinson
#112 S, Ja’yahir Brown
(Rodgers trade)
#116 TE, Zack Kuntz
#143 (used in trade up)
#149 DT, Mike Morris
#170 WR, Andrei Iosavis
7th CB, Mekhi Blackmon
7th DT, Dante Stills
7th LB, Marte Mapu
7th QB, Malik Cunningham

Note: I found it very difficult to find quality players at every position of need and several are lightly wishing, but realistic. The point I’m making is it’s imperative we get everything we can for Aaron Rodgers, anything less than 42, 43 is going to be bordering on painful to fill all our holes with quality players. Even here we might need to get a veteran DT or WR until guys are up to speed.

I mean this very politely...but you are the only person I think left anywhere that believes the Packers are fleecing the Jets out of that many picks in this year's draft.

 

[Schultz]

I am also being polite. I targeted the Ravens as a team to trade up with if the right guy is there. Personally I hate trading up. My reasoning is that they only have 6 picks. This makes me doubt they would trade up and go down to only 5 picks. IMO more likely they trade down to get another pick or 2. Again this is just my opinion. I do also agree that it would be great if it happens but I do not see the trade working out the way he does.

 

[tynimiller]

I am also being polite. I targeted the Ravens as a team to trade up with if the right guy is there. Personally I hate trading up. My reasoning is that they only have 6 picks. This makes me doubt they would trade up and go down to only 5 picks. IMO more likely they trade down to get another pick or 2. Again this is just my opinion. I do also agree that it would be great if it happens but I do not see the trade working out the way he does.

Dolphins are another team to possibly call about trading to on Day2 in the draft too as they are limited pick wise as well.

 

[OldSchool101]

I mean this very politely...but you are the only person I think left anywhere that believes the Packers are fleecing the Jets out of that many picks in this year's draft.

You must understand I’m the only person who’s done 175 mock drafts across several sites including trades on most. Now if I’m a virtual GM? How am I supposed to do my virtual job without proper draft resources?!
I virtually quit!

Wait.., … I’ve got a Csll coming in from Tennessee. Expose me.. I mean excuse me.

 

[OldSchool101]

I haven’t been excited about the draft since I crossed My Grandma’s Seventeenth parallel as a Toddler. She’d eat Brats n Kraut and Beans and the Room she was in afterwards became like the Line of Demarcation. Bombs going off everywhere.

 

[Schultz]

You must understand I’m the only person who’s done 175 mock drafts across several sites including trades on most. Now if I’m a virtual GM? How am I supposed to do my virtual job without proper draft resources?!
I virtually quit!

Wait.., … I’ve got a Csll coming in from Tennessee. Expose me.. I mean excuse me.

I keep waiting for this dang trade before I go down the mock rabbit hole. Normally I would have close to 100 by now but been a little bit busier than usual this year.

 

[OldSchool101]

I keep waiting for this dang trade before I go down the mock rabbit hole. Normally I would have close to 100 by now but been a little bit busier than usual this year.

I’ve mostly just used the natural selections for GB in Profootballnetwork
I traded my Packers 1st rounder in 2024 for a Jets #42 just for ease of keeping it Consolidated into this 2023 season. I figured we’d likely get at minimum a #42

About a week ago they added Darnell Savage and Aaron Rodgers to the 2024 trade options. Funny thing is it makes no sense. In that site, the Jets will only accept Rodgers for their #13. Savage is a 4th Rounder value when you go that route. If you try to trade Rodgers for a 42,44? It declines. It makes no sense because obviously a #13 is worth more draft collateral than 42,43. Also that site does not like multiple, combined trades together or it declines. Yet you can do the same offers separately and it accepts.

It’s Corky. Yet going through it you get pretty good at discerning where players are grouped with our potential landing spots. Obviously the first selection sends you down a completely different maze for the rest of the draft.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I traded my Packers 1st rounder in 2024 for a Jets #42 just for ease of keeping it Consolidated into this 2023 season. I figured we’d likely get at minimum a #42

I do the same, but my "optimistic" trade has the Packers and Jets swapping 1st round picks and the Packers pick up both of the Jets 2nd round picks. The Sims that don't allow trades, you just manipulate, with as you said, giving them all the Packers 2024 picks. There are some sweet outcomes when you are armed with a #13 and 3 picks in the 2nd, especially if you trade back a bit in the first.

Of course the draft simulators are not much different than being on the Orca, dreaming about the big one.

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[OldSchool101]

I do the same, but my "optimistic" trade has the Packers and Jets swapping 1st round picks and the Packers pick up both of the Jets 2nd round picks. The Sims that don't allow trades, you just manipulate, with as you said, giving them all the Packers 2024 picks. There are some sweet outcomes when you are armed with a #13 and 3 picks in the 2nd, especially if you trade back a bit in the first.

Of course the draft simulators are not much different than being on the Orca, dreaming about the big one.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Yep. One of my favorite moves up was a trade up using both 1sts for Jalen Carter and some misc capital He had somehow gotten to the Raiders at #7 and I paused and nabbed him. He’d be very formidable working alongside Clark and Wyatt etc.. especially when Rashan gets back on the Edge.

The trade backs can he dangerous as they very occasionally can take us down a path to a very C- draft. The safest bet is to do small trade backs by no more than 5 spots or so, reevaluating the remaining players verses numbers of selections to our next pick. That takes more risk out of the equation. I can’t tell you how many times my ideal player got drafted the exact spot before my selection. It’s like the draft board was keeping track of my previous favorite players and trying to ruin it.

I also had SF49ers and other teams try to fool me on trades by asking for me to trade backwards on both of my selections. They try to catch you sleeping.

 

[Schultz]

IMO. The actual draft goes no where near the way these sim drafts go. Also the trades are rarely close in equivelancy as these mocks. IMO.

 

[Dantés]

Lukas Van Ness, ED/DL, Iowa:

-6'5" 272#
-4.58 w/ 1.57 split
-4.32/7.02 agilities

Myles Murphy, ED, Clemson:

-6'5" 268#
-4.53 w/1.59 split
-4.29/ 7.21 agilities

These guys are so rare that if you go looking for players who ran sub 4.6 and were sub 4.35/7.30 in the agilities at 265+, you almost can't find guys. The ones who actually hit those are in bold below.

The rest are the closest athletic comps otherwise that I can find in recent combine history (i.e. post 2010):

-Trey Hendrickson, FAU, 2017: 6'4", 266#, 4.65, 4.40, 7.03
-Jadeveon Clowney, SC, 2014: 6'5", 266#, 4.53, 4.43, 7.27
-Owamagba Odighizuwa, UCLA, 2015: 6'4", 267#, 4.62, 4.19, 7.36
-Bradley Chubb, NCSU, 2018: 6'4", 269#, 4.65, 4.41, 7.37
-Bud Dupree, Kentucky, 2015: 6'4", 269#, 4.56, 4.48, 7.52
-Ezekiel Ansah, BYU, 2013: 6'5", 271#, 4.63, 4.26, 7.11
-Nick Perry, USC, 2012: 6'5", 271#, 4.55, 4.66, 7.25
-Travon Walker, UGA, 2022: 6'5", 272#, 4.51, 4.32, 6.89
-Myles Garrett, TAMU, 2014: 6'4", 272#, 4.64, 4.20, N/A
-Emmanuel Ogbah, MIZZ, 2016: 6'4", 273#, 4.63, 4.50, 7.26
-Everson Griffen, USC, 2010: 6'3", 273#, 4.65, 4.36, 7.25
-Carlos Basham, WF, 2021: 6'3", 274#, 4.62, 4.32, 7.13
-Rashan Gary, MICH, 2019: 6'4", 277#, 4.58, 4.29, 7.26
-Carlo Dunlap, FLA, 2010: 6'6", 278#, 4.68, 4.61, 7.21
-DaQuan Bowers, CLEM, 2011: 6'3", 280#, 6.64, 4.57, 6.98

We throw around the term "freak" in the pre-draft process a lot. It's annoying, because a "freak" should rightly refer to someone who is so athletic that you almost never see comparable guys. The term actually applies to Van Ness and Murphy. These are rare, rare athletes, and they're both young and still developing. As you can see, guys like this almost never bust. Even when they aren't homeruns, they're high floor players who return a lot of value. And when they really hit, they're some of the most valuable players in the league.

 

[OldSchool101]

IMO. The actual draft goes no where near the way these sim drafts go. Also the trades are rarely close in equivelancy as these mocks. IMO.

While that’s true. It doesn’t negate the positive thought processes you need to make to exercise the mind. The reality is that the draft is unique on a pick by pick basis, regardless of these Mocks it never ever falls consensus. You could wait 1 extra day and the draft would alter itself. Players are rising and falling day to day.

None of that stops me from having fun. I can’t count on my hands and toes the number of times I’d select a player by guessing, then afterwards I’d go research and evaluate 1 specific player to see if I guessed correctly. Getting back to reality, You rarely land a late Day gem unless you get involved and research. You rarely research when you don’t play the game.

I don’t closely follow College basketball all season, but it’s surprisingly of how much I’ll learn across a tournament by simply joining a bracket or two. Loving and losing is better than Never having loved at all. I correctly picked 3 teams of the Final 4 off my lone bracket this year.
That’s what I get for choosing Alabama to Win it all.

 

[Schultz]

I agree about the fun part and I also consider it as a way of challenging myself. Not that I think this is you, but there are people who do these mocks and then complain that they did a better job than the GM. They complain if no trades are made even though they have absolutely no clue if the GM tried desperately to make one but could not find a trade partner. When they had no problem making multiple trades on some website.

 

[OldSchool101]

I agree about the fun part and I also consider it as a way of challenging myself. Not that I think this is you, but there are people who do these mocks and then complain that they did a better job than the GM. They complain if no trades are made even though they have absolutely no clue if the GM tried desperately to make one but could not find a trade partner. When they had no problem making multiple trades on some website.

I agree with that. The Mocks are called Mocks for a reason. Maybe it’s after the other definition. It’s an act of ridiculing or deriding someone like Brian!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I agree with that. The Mocks are called Mocks for a reason. Maybe it’s after the other definition. It’s an act of ridiculing or deriding someone like Brian!

A site that I tried a couple of times, would typically have either Stroud, Young or both available to me at pick #15. Needless to say, I stopped using that site. PFF used to be free, for all 7 rounds and it was still, up until about a month ago. Now only the first 2 rounds are free.

Any simulators you guys like? I have mainly stuck to the PFN one.

 

[tynimiller]

A site that I tried a couple of times, would typically have either Stroud, Young or both available to me at pick #15. Needless to say, I stopped using that site. PFF used to be free, for all 7 rounds and it was still, up until about a month ago. Now only the first 2 rounds are free.

Any simulators you guys like? I have mainly stuck to the PFN one.

PFF and Draft Network for the most part are the two "closest" engines in operations and such...but these things are getting quite advanced and such which makes sense why paywalls are happening in order to keep them fresh and coding and ability to write formulas for historical trends to be weighted in, team trends weighted and more.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I won't clog up the space here by showing the results, but this was a fun....fantasy mock draft. Just to show you how unreal they can be. When it was all said and done, I came out of it with 24 picks. Highlighted by Quentin Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington and Zack Kuntz.

2023 NFL User Mock Draft #1537615 | NFL Mock Draft Database

2023 NFL User Mock Draft. 7 Round - 1 Team: Mock Draft

www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com

 

[OldSchool101]

I see the dilemma. Brian doesn’t want to part with Rodgers fir one 2nd rounder.

If we don’t get a Jets 2024 Day1 ~#28 area) in 2024? Two 2nd rounders across 2 seasons is basically Rodgers for a 42+90 now (assuming the Jets make the Divisional or better). Anything less than 2 second rounders across multiple drafts is getting screwed.

NY is trying to screw us!