2023 Draft Talk

[DoURant]

I agree, just looking at the school is lazy

It happens a lot... evaluate the prospect, not the school or prior prospects from that establishment

 

[Dantés]

Jim Nagy tweeted that everything he hears is that the media is way higher on the WR class than the league. He believes only JSN is regarded as a 1st round prospect.

Let's say the Packers can't get him and/or don't see his fit in LaFleur's offense. What positions would they be considering with their first pick?

QB-- Maybe on day two a la Brohm, but not in the 1st round.
RB-- I don't think Bijan will make it to #15 and I don't think they'd take him.
TE-- Maybe they'll surprise me (like Quay last year), but I don't see them taking a 1st round TE
WR-- Is JSN is the only 1st rounder and he's gone...
iOL-- Why take an interior lineman (lower value position) with other much more pressing issues at more valuable spots?
LB-- This class stinks at LB and they don't have a spot for one
S-- This is the worst safety class I've ever seen and they've made moves to try and soften the need

So what does that leave?

OT-- Depending on what they think about Walker and Jones, depth/competition is an immediate need, as well as long term answers; it's a high value position.
iDL-- They need basically a starter's level of snaps even if Wyatt bumps way up; borderline premiums position depending on the style of interior guy.
CB-- Again, could see some work early as Stokes works back; Douglas likely a cap casualty next season, Nixon on a one year deal, and we don't know how they feel about Stokes even when he's healthy.
ED-- Could see a big role early if Gary isn't ready and they need an eventual replacement for Smith; a lesser need than the three above.

At those spots, I would assume that at least one of the tackles (hard to say which for certain, but probably Johnson), Jalen Carter, Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, Will Anderson, Lukas Van Ness, and Tyree Wilson will be gone in the top 14 picks.

At those positions, that would leave:

-Broderick Jones, OT, UGA
-Darnell Wright, OT, TENN
-Bryan Bresee, iDL, CLEM
-Mazi Smith, iDL, MICH
-Deonte Banks, CB, MAR
-Joey Porter Jr, CB, PSU
-Kelee Ringo, DB, UGA
-Myles Murphy, ED, CLEM
-Nolan Smith, ED, UGA

I think all of those guys are Packer types, with the possible exception of Smith (whom I'm not sure about-- not saying he isn't). My guess is that their pick in round 1 will be one of those players. Now watch them take Dalton Kincaid.

Keion White would be a sleeper, but he's quite old. Brian Branch could be a guy they make an exception on RAS wise.

 

[tynimiller]

Jim Nagy tweeted that everything he hears is that the media is way higher on the WR class than the league. He believes only JSN is regarded as a 1st round prospect.

Let's say the Packers can't get him and/or don't see his fit in LaFleur's offense. What positions would they be considering with their first pick?

QB-- Maybe on day two a la Brohm, but not in the 1st round.
RB-- I don't think Bijan will make it to #15 and I don't think they'd take him.
TE-- Maybe they'll surprise me (like Quay last year), but I don't see them taking a 1st round TE
WR-- Is JSN is the only 1st rounder and he's gone...
iOL-- Why take an interior lineman (lower value position) with other much more pressing issues at more valuable spots?
LB-- This class stinks at LB and they don't have a spot for one
S-- This is the worst safety class I've ever seen and they've made moves to try and soften the need

So what does that leave?

OT-- Depending on what they think about Walker and Jones, depth/competition is an immediate need, as well as long term answers; it's a high value position.
iDL-- They need basically a starter's level of snaps even if Wyatt bumps way up; borderline premiums position depending on the style of interior guy.
CB-- Again, could see some work early as Stokes works back; Douglas likely a cap casualty next season, Nixon on a one year deal, and we don't know how they feel about Stokes even when he's healthy.
ED-- Could see a big role early if Gary isn't ready and they need an eventual replacement for Smith; a lesser need than the three above.

At those spots, I would assume that at least one of the tackles (hard to say which for certain, but probably Johnson), Jalen Carter, Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, Will Anderson, Lukas Van Ness, and Tyree Wilson will be gone in the top 14 picks.

At those positions, that would leave:

-Broderick Jones, OT, UGA
-Darnell Wright, OT, TENN
-Bryan Bresee, iDL, CLEM
-Mazi Smith, iDL, MICH
-Deonte Banks, CB, MAR
-Joey Porter Jr, CB, PSU
-Kelee Ringo, DB, UGA
-Myles Murphy, ED, CLEM
-Nolan Smith, ED, UGA

I think all of those guys are Packer types, with the possible exception of Smith (whom I'm not sure about-- not saying he isn't). My guess is that their pick in round 1 will be one of those players. Now watch them take Dalton Kincaid.

Keion White would be a sleeper, but he's quite old. Brian Branch could be a guy they make an exception on RAS wise.

I agree and I think Julius Brents an oober Gute type prospect could sneak in there like Nolan Smith has done.

I agree with you though, I mean I could see them take Skoronski ala Jenkins and he is an iOL not an OT IMO.

I do disagree on Ringo - not a guy I’d take even over Brents. I think truthfully if Keion White wasn’t 24 he’d have Gute written all over him in first round.

 

[gopkrs]

agree with you though, I mean I could see them take Skoronski ala Jenkins and he is an iOL not an OT IMO.

I don't think Jenkins is an OT either. There will be a consensus very good guard in the second though. So why go that way with Skoronski in the first? Still think Kincaid could be a big difference maker on O (assuming he's good physically), but doubt they will take him. So tempted to trade down. One of the DTs should be there for awhile and maybe one of the others on Dante's list will drop also.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't think Jenkins is an OT either. There will be a consensus very good guard in the second though. So why go that way with Skoronski in the first? Still think Kincaid could be a big difference maker on O (assuming he's good physically), but doubt they will take him. So tempted to trade down. One of the DTs should be there for awhile and maybe one of the others on Dante's list will drop also.

Oh I’m very confident in if Gute wants Mazi or Bresee he one but most likely both will be there.

There are far more defensive prospects worthy of a first round pick this draft than offense. I’d go as far as to say if JSN or Paris Johnson isn’t there at 15 I will not want an offensive name called unless we trade down and out of it.

 

[OldSchool101]

Jim Nagy tweeted that everything he hears is that the media is way higher on the WR class than the league. He believes only JSN is regarded as a 1st round prospect.

Let's say the Packers can't get him and/or don't see his fit in LaFleur's offense. What positions would they be considering with their first pick?

QB-- Maybe on day two a la Brohm, but not in the 1st round.
RB-- I don't think Bijan will make it to #15 and I don't think they'd take him.
TE-- Maybe they'll surprise me (like Quay last year), but I don't see them taking a 1st round TE
WR-- Is JSN is the only 1st rounder and he's gone...
iOL-- Why take an interior lineman (lower value position) with other much more pressing issues at more valuable spots?
LB-- This class stinks at LB and they don't have a spot for one
S-- This is the worst safety class I've ever seen and they've made moves to try and soften the need

So what does that leave?

OT-- Depending on what they think about Walker and Jones, depth/competition is an immediate need, as well as long term answers; it's a high value position.
iDL-- They need basically a starter's level of snaps even if Wyatt bumps way up; borderline premiums position depending on the style of interior guy.
CB-- Again, could see some work early as Stokes works back; Douglas likely a cap casualty next season, Nixon on a one year deal, and we don't know how they feel about Stokes even when he's healthy.
ED-- Could see a big role early if Gary isn't ready and they need an eventual replacement for Smith; a lesser need than the three above.

At those spots, I would assume that at least one of the tackles (hard to say which for certain, but probably Johnson), Jalen Carter, Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, Will Anderson, Lukas Van Ness, and Tyree Wilson will be gone in the top 14 picks.

At those positions, that would leave:

-Broderick Jones, OT, UGA
-Darnell Wright, OT, TENN
-Bryan Bresee, iDL, CLEM
-Mazi Smith, iDL, MICH
-Deonte Banks, CB, MAR
-Joey Porter Jr, CB, PSU
-Kelee Ringo, DB, UGA
-Myles Murphy, ED, CLEM
-Nolan Smith, ED, UGA

I think all of those guys are Packer types, with the possible exception of Smith (whom I'm not sure about-- not saying he isn't). My guess is that their pick in round 1 will be one of those players. Now watch them take Dalton Kincaid.

Keion White would be a sleeper, but he's quite old. Brian Branch could be a guy they make an exception on RAS wise.

This is perhaps one of the stranger drafts for us. Our needs actually fit pretty well with position groupings (aside from Safety) but not so well with our draft placing (middle of each round)

As an example there are 3 really dynamic TE’s. Kincaid, Maher, Washington that really fall 20 overall to 35 overall. We’re reaching at #15 and were dreaming at #45
The next grouping; Musgrave, Porter, Kraft are really 50-70 overall. We’re reaching at #45 and dreaming at #78

The WR class is fantastic if you need a Slot WR and you don’t have a Day1 pick. But relatively lacking otherwise. There are arguably 4 WR’s in that Round 1 area. There are about 8 WR’s that should go in Round 3

Safety is almost laughable thin until you get to a Round 3, consensus area There are about 7 Safeties worthy of a consensus Round 3 grade. There are just 2 Safeties total that are bonafide across both Rounds 1 and 2 combined. In contrast, there are 12 Edge prospects in that area. What!

RB similarly has just 2 legit top 64 guys. There are 10 consensus 4th Round RB’s!

There are 8 iDL graded in Round 4 alone. There are just 8 across
Rounds1, 2, 3 combined.

There are very likely 4 QB’s selected before we pick (possibly top 10) There are only 2 more QB’s from our selection until Day3 opens. I think Hendon ****** is going to be a steal in Day 2.

 

[thequick12]

I gotta revisit my thinking if Weiss agrees LOL

It aint just Weiss obviously... I just happened to hear him say it right after i read your post.

Im definitely not a Charlie Weiss fan Id like to make that clear.

Im just saying the consensus is he can be a good tackle or a great guard. Arm length isn't going to stop him from being a competent nfl tackle. If the guy can play the guy can play it dont matter how long his arms are.

 

[tynimiller]

It aint just Weiss obviously... I just happened to hear him say it right after i read your post.

Im definitely not a Charlie Weiss fan Id like to make that clear.

Im just saying the consensus is he can be a good tackle or a great guard. Arm length isn't going to stop him from being a competent nfl tackle. If the guy can play the guy can play it dont matter how long his arms are.

When you’re quite an outlier odds tell me don’t flirt with hoping, if I draft him I’m starting him at RG here

 

[OldSchool101]

It aint just Weiss obviously... I just happened to hear him say it right after i read your post.

Im definitely not a Charlie Weiss fan Id like to make that clear.

Im just saying the consensus is he can be a good tackle or a great guard. Arm length isn't going to stop him from being a competent nfl tackle. If the guy can play the guy can play it dont matter how long his arms are.

I can’t remember who it was now (NFL Coach?) However they were talking about that arm length subject. They mentioned exceptions to the rule about OL arm length. He implied you can have exceptions. However if you build an OL of too many exceptions? you’ll exception yourself right out of the NFL. There is absolutely a correlation between a guy with >=35” arms and a guy with shorter <=33” arms at Tackle

 

[Dantés]

It aint just Weiss obviously... I just happened to hear him say it right after i read your post.

Im definitely not a Charlie Weiss fan Id like to make that clear.

Im just saying the consensus is he can be a good tackle or a great guard. Arm length isn't going to stop him from being a competent nfl tackle. If the guy can play the guy can play it dont matter how long his arms are.

Then help me understand why tackles with sub 33” arms virtually don’t exist.

 

[thequick12]

When you’re quite an outlier odds tell me don’t flirt with hoping, if I draft him I’m starting him at RG here

Then help me understand why tackles with sub 33” arms virtually don’t exist.

Virtually, the thing is you have to assume most guys with elite tackle size like snorski at 6-4 315 dont come with short arms. Big dudes almost always have long arms. Meaning there just arent a lot that are even given a shot

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This OL group is not terrible but imagine a world where instantly you have possibly Newman as your back up guard and RT (doable service proven), Runyan a guard back up, Myers your center back up....I'm feeling very nice about that group.

I wouldn't feel comfortable about Newman being the primary backup at tackle entering the season.

 

[tynimiller]

I wouldn't feel comfortable about Newman being the primary backup at tackle entering the season.

Well actually if you think about the scenario I lined up - the likelihood would be that Tom would slide to LT or RT should one go down and Myers back in at center. Newman is fine as a depth back up at RG and RT - I didn't even say primary...because who knows what Jones, Tenuta or Walker might even have to say about that this year.

 

[tynimiller]

Virtually, the thing is you have to assume most guys with elite tackle size like snorski at 6-4 315 dont come with short arms. Big dudes almost always have long arms. Meaning there just arent a lot that are even given a shot

Sorry just not true at all - that frame is not "elite"

Besides just this year guys that come to mind with "elite frames" and short arms...some of these dudes were even tackles in college but declared in combine as guards, others made the switch to guards in college already. Short armed Tackles are like a 200 inch buck in the wild - they exist, but they are very rare.

TJ Bass 6043 height 317lbs and only 32 3/8 arms
Connor Galvin 6064 height 299lbs and only 32 4/8 inch arms
Andrew Vorhees 6060 height 310lbs and only 32 1/8 inch arms
Tyler Steen 6054 height 325lbs and only 33 inch arms
Ryan Hayes 6065 height 305lbs and only 32 6/8 inch arms
Cody Mauch 6047 height 305lbs and only 32 1/8 inch arms
Jarrett Patterson 6047 height 304lbs and only 31 5/8 inch arms
Jaelyn Duncan 6055 height 306lbs and only 33 inch arms
Chandler Zavala 6034 height 316lbs and only 32 7/8 inch arms
Nick Broeker 6043 height 305lbs and only 32 4/8 inch arms

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

As an example there are 3 really dynamic TE’s. Kincaid, Maher, Washington that really fall 20 overall to 35 overall. We’re reaching at #15 and were dreaming at #45
The next grouping; Musgrave, Porter, Kraft are really 50-70 overall. We’re reaching at #45 and dreaming at #78

Gute seems to like to move around during the draft, it wouldn't surprise me to see him do that in either of the first 2 rounds, especially if he has those 2 2nd round picks from the Jets. Ideally, I am still hoping for those 2 picks as well as swapping our 15th for their 13th pick in the 1st round. That might be the difference between getting the exact player they want in the first round or sending Gute looking for a trade down.

 

[Dantés]

Virtually, the thing is you have to assume most guys with elite tackle size like snorski at 6-4 315 dont come with short arms. Big dudes almost always have long arms. Meaning there just arent a lot that are even given a shot

There is a massive sample of prospects in NFL history with tackle size but sub 33” arms.

 

[Schultz]

I wouldn't feel comfortable about Newman being the primary backup at tackle entering the season.

I am fine with Newman being the #8 OL on the depth chart.

 

[PikeBadger]

Jim Nagy tweeted that everything he hears is that the media is way higher on the WR class than the league. He believes only JSN is regarded as a 1st round prospect.

Let's say the Packers can't get him and/or don't see his fit in LaFleur's offense. What positions would they be considering with their first pick?

QB-- Maybe on day two a la Brohm, but not in the 1st round.
RB-- I don't think Bijan will make it to #15 and I don't think they'd take him.
TE-- Maybe they'll surprise me (like Quay last year), but I don't see them taking a 1st round TE
WR-- Is JSN is the only 1st rounder and he's gone...
iOL-- Why take an interior lineman (lower value position) with other much more pressing issues at more valuable spots?
LB-- This class stinks at LB and they don't have a spot for one
S-- This is the worst safety class I've ever seen and they've made moves to try and soften the need

So what does that leave?

OT-- Depending on what they think about Walker and Jones, depth/competition is an immediate need, as well as long term answers; it's a high value position.
iDL-- They need basically a starter's level of snaps even if Wyatt bumps way up; borderline premiums position depending on the style of interior guy.
CB-- Again, could see some work early as Stokes works back; Douglas likely a cap casualty next season, Nixon on a one year deal, and we don't know how they feel about Stokes even when he's healthy.
ED-- Could see a big role early if Gary isn't ready and they need an eventual replacement for Smith; a lesser need than the three above.

At those spots, I would assume that at least one of the tackles (hard to say which for certain, but probably Johnson), Jalen Carter, Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, Will Anderson, Lukas Van Ness, and Tyree Wilson will be gone in the top 14 picks.

At those positions, that would leave:

-Broderick Jones, OT, UGA
-Darnell Wright, OT, TENN
-Bryan Bresee, iDL, CLEM
-Mazi Smith, iDL, MICH
-Deonte Banks, CB, MAR
-Joey Porter Jr, CB, PSU
-Kelee Ringo, DB, UGA
-Myles Murphy, ED, CLEM
-Nolan Smith, ED, UGA

I think all of those guys are Packer types, with the possible exception of Smith (whom I'm not sure about-- not saying he isn't). My guess is that their pick in round 1 will be one of those players. Now watch them take Dalton Kincaid.

Keion White would be a sleeper, but he's quite old. Brian Branch could be a guy they make an exception on RAS wise.

Excellent assessment Dantes. I think I'm going to utilize your thoughts in the draft contest............. not that it's going to help me from getting another donut.

 

[PikeBadger]

Gute seems to like to move around during the draft, it wouldn't surprise me to see him do that in either of the first 2 rounds, especially if he has those 2 2nd round picks from the Jets. Ideally, I am still hoping for those 2 picks as well as swapping our 15th for their 13th pick in the 1st round. That might be the difference between getting the exact player they want in the first round or sending Gute looking for a trade down.

I think it would be very cool if we ended up with no 1st rounder, five 2nd rounders, two 3rds and two 4ths. I'd be A-Ok with that.

 

[tynimiller]

I think it would be very cool if we ended up with no 1st rounder, five 2nd rounders, two 3rds and two 4ths. I'd be A-Ok with that.

To be honest offensively outside of one WR and three or four tackles.....the second round is where offensively this draft shines - plethora of 2nd round worthy WRs, TEs, OTs still or iOLs....I would embrace a trade back scenario that we wash out with four or five seconds.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think it would be very cool if we ended up with no 1st rounder, five 2nd rounders, two 3rds and two 4ths. I'd be A-Ok with that.

To be honest offensively outside of one WR and three or four tackles.....the second round is where offensively this draft shines - plethora of 2nd round worthy WRs, TEs, OTs still or iOLs....I would embrace a trade back scenario that we wash out with four or five seconds.

I agree 110% with both of you. I think there are only 4 teams with 2 picks in the second (Seahawks, Jets, Steelers and Lions).Although, we may be getting both of those 2nd rounders from the Jets. Possibly, if there is someone sitting there at 15 that one of them really want, they will swap their two 2nd rounds with us for the 15th pick. Or even better, a team picking in the 20-31 range, swaps that pick and their 2nd for the 15th. That would mean that the Packers would have a 1st rounder and four 2nd rounders (if they are getting the Jets picks for Rodgers).

Any way you slice it, if they end up with 5 picks in the first 2 rounds, they can make a dent in some of their current and future needs. I know people are all worried about the OL, but lets not forget that Love is going to be a lot more mobile than Rodgers. Yeah, would be nice to have a fortified wall protecting him, but I also think he needs a TE and another WR. If they do have those 5 picks in rounds 1-2, I can see them being TE, WR, OL, EDGE or DL, S.....in no particular orders. Than use rounds 3-7 to backfill future needs (DL/EDGE, CB, RB,ILB, OL)

 

[thequick12]

There is a massive sample of prospects in NFL history with tackle size but sub 33” arms.

I wouldn't say massive a lot of these guards and centers are not at least 6-4. Yes there are some meyers is at least 6-4 and has 32 inch arms

 

[Schultz]

IMO a vet who can manipulate a pocket is as good if not better than a mobile inexperienced QB as far as helping the OL. IMO.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well actually if you think about the scenario I lined up - the likelihood would be that Tom would slide to LT or RT should one go down and Myers back in at center. Newman is fine as a depth back up at RG and RT - I didn't even say primary...because who knows what Jones, Tenuta or Walker might even have to say about that this year.

We’ve got so many additions flying under the radar because of being buried on depth chart etc. Nijman wasn’t even drafted and look what he’s done. Throw enough darts and it seems one rises.
Tom, Tenura, Delance, Walker, Jones, Bakhtiari. We haven’t even considered what Nij would cost. We have potentially 6 or 7 Tackles going into training camp. If we add one we’re not trimming fat anymore, it’s possibly trimming prime beef.

 

[tynimiller]

We’ve got so many additions flying under the radar because of being buried on depth chart etc. Nijman wasn’t even drafted and look what he’s done. Throw enough darts and it seems one rises.
Tom, Tenura, Delance, Walker, Jones, Bakhtiari. We haven’t even considered what Nij would cost. We have potentially 6 or 7 Tackles going into training camp. If we add one we’re not trimming fat anymore, it’s possibly trimming prime beef.

Nijman cost is between four and five million I believe it is for second round tender.