2023 Draft Talk

[tynimiller]

As far as draft sleepers. Michael Wilson is a late Day 2- earlier Day 3 guy that is flying under the radar, mostly due to injury concerns and a system that was not pass friendly at all. Wilson was the leading Stanford Receiver when on the field He said to stand out at the Senior bowl He’s #7 here on the top 10 list clip. His cut ability and initial acceleration look Pro Slot ready.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

He’s also said to be a fantastic blocker, which we all know we covet.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Wilson had a relatively poor 40 time (4.58) but killed his 10 yard split (1.50). He’s bigger than a typical Slot, but I actually think he could play that role at the Pro level and he’d be a chess piece for blocking in the Run game.

If Michael Wilson makes it to Day 3 I will be absolutely shocked...

 

[Dantés]

The quality of players at OT in round 2 will be way worse than at TE.

Just for reference, here are the number of tight ends that were gone by pick #45 in the last 10 drafts:

2022: 0
2021: 1
2020: 1
2019: 2
2018: 2
2017: 4
2016: 1
2015: 0
2014: 2
2013: 2

The odds that the Packers get cleaned out at tight end by the time they come up to pick in round 2 is very minimal.

The same data but in regarding to offensive tackles:

2022: 5
2021: 5
2020: 6
2019: 6
2018: 2
2017: 3
2016: 4
2015: 4
2014: 5
2013: 6

So on the 10 year average, 1.5 TE's go before pick #45 and 4.6 OT's. In a normal year, you get the 2nd TE at #45, but the 5th OT.

 

[Dantés]

A buddy of mine was breaking down some historical pick trends like he does every year. He loves to establish over/unders for positions gone by Pick 50. He says it can be a massive indication of what to expect from his past observations.

They predicted an over/under line of 4.5 for TEs to be gone in top 50 which coincides with what you're saying.

Good news is most folks argue there are 5 or 6 starting caliber TEs in this draft...now some are quite TE1s out the gate but a starting level TE2 at minimum most likely:

In no particular order: Kincaid / Mayer / Washington / LaPorta / Musgrave / Kraft

Truth is UNLESS something crazy happens and a massive run on TEs happen the likelihood of two of these guys setting there for our second round pick is very high. So the question Gute would need to figure out is how far apart do I have these guys graded....how likely am I to be able to get Big Dog resigned cheap to serve alone one of these guys if I only get one.

It is honestly for this trend reasoning that unless we do a trade back, I'm less and less inclined to believe using a first rounder on a TE is the wisest of decisions.

I would add that if they're at #45 and feel like the run on TE's is going to get away from them, a trade up in that range would be very inexpensive.

 

[Dantés]

OK, well thanks and I hope you're right. In this case though the past isn't helpful. There are likely 4 TEs gone by #45 this year.

There are a lot of good TEs this year. I do agree that getting a solid OT is a priority. Even if he hadn't injured his knee, Bakh is getting on. And the Packers pick early in all rounds, I think, so maybe they get their TE in round 2.

I have no idea if they see OT as important enough to take in the top 2 rounds. My point is simply that if they want both, it makes way more sense to take the tackle first. 1) The TE class is deeper, and 2) tackles always go faster. However, if they don't see OT as quite that important, that would change the calculation.

Where I disagree is where you say that in this case the past isn't helpful. Past draft trends are always helpful.

 

[tynimiller]

I would add that if they're at #45 and feel like the run on TE's is going to get away from them, a trade up in that range would be very inexpensive.

Completely agree! That tackle average is VERY interesting but not shocked as I almost always assume four are gone in the first round almost as a given.

 

[tynimiller]

I have no idea if they see OT as important enough to take in the top 2 rounds. My point is simply that if they want both, it makes way more sense to take the tackle first. 1) The TE class is deeper, and 2) tackles always go faster. However, if they don't see OT as quite that important, that would change the calculation.

Where I disagree is where you say that in this case the past isn't helpful. Past draft trends are always helpful.

I agree, most likely scenario played out is OT in first or not till 3rd or Day 3 for us - but who knows.

 

[gopkrs]

As much as I'd like O line; I'm starting to think Kincaid. I'm a little worried about the Ohio State receiver because of his hamstring problem. Otherwise I would go with him. And I want quality O linemen and so I would not mind going guard in the 2nd. Like we did with Jenkins. Dalton Kincaid looks like he could really help the offense. Not sure if LaFleur would go for him but it's said he does block well is space. Maybe high for him but he is probably worth it.

 

[Heyjoe4]

A buddy of mine was breaking down some historical pick trends like he does every year. He loves to establish over/unders for positions gone by Pick 50. He says it can be a massive indication of what to expect from his past observations.

They predicted an over/under line of 4.5 for TEs to be gone in top 50 which coincides with what you're saying.

Good news is most folks argue there are 5 or 6 starting caliber TEs in this draft...now some are quite TE1s out the gate but a starting level TE2 at minimum most likely:

In no particular order: Kincaid / Mayer / Washington / LaPorta / Musgrave / Kraft

Truth is UNLESS something crazy happens and a massive run on TEs happen the likelihood of two of these guys setting there for our second round pick is very high. So the question Gute would need to figure out is how far apart do I have these guys graded....how likely am I to be able to get Big Dog resigned cheap to serve alone one of these guys if I only get one.

It is honestly for this trend reasoning that unless we do a trade back, I'm less and less inclined to believe using a first rounder on a TE is the wisest of decisions.

Agreed. And in the mocks I’ve seen, the earliest a TE is picked in the middle of rd 1.

I was thinking of the year when the draft was loaded with WRs. All of the impact guys were gone when the Packers picked, and they didn’t draft a single WR.

Seems unlikely to happen with TEs. At #15 I’d still like to see Mayer, or any of the top TEs who look ready to start. The Packers still need help at receiver.

It’s not likely to be a disaster if they wait until #45. But yeah, if there’s a stud OT or Edge guy available at #15, take him.

 

[Dantés]

Agreed. And in the mocks I’ve seen, the earliest a TE is picked in the middle of rd 1.

I was thinking of the year when the draft was loaded with WRs. All of the impact guys were gone when the Packers picked, and they didn’t draft a single WR.

Seems unlikely to happen with TEs. At #15 I’d still like to see Mayer, or any of the top TEs who look ready to start. The Packers still need help at receiver.

It’s not likely to be a disaster if they wait until #45. But yeah, if there’s a stud OT or Edge guy available at #15, take him.

One way in which this situation could be different than that run on WR's that you mention is that WR is a premium position at which prospects tend to go higher and faster than at TE. So a great WR class probably means 8+ are gone by the middle of round 2. But a great TE class probably means only ~4 gone by that same point.

 

[tynimiller]

I personally, since our staff believes that we have two legit young ascending WRs already on the roster in Watson and Doubs, have zero issue with if things would work out we wouldn't take a WR till round 4 or 5....especially if say Corey Davis is part of the trade back to us with the Jets. Even in the third/fourth I still still some legit NFL ready types (depending on role) like Xavier Hutchinson, slot guy Parker Washington, Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Andrei Iosivas jump to my mind...even slightly later a guy they brought in for a visit in Dontayvion Wicks or say even Ronnie Bell or Puka if still there.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

A buddy of mine was breaking down some historical pick trends like he does every year. He loves to establish over/unders for positions gone by Pick 50. He says it can be a massive indication of what to expect from his past observations.

They predicted an over/under line of 4.5 for TEs to be gone in top 50 which coincides with what you're saying.

Good news is most folks argue there are 5 or 6 starting caliber TEs in this draft...now some are quite TE1s out the gate but a starting level TE2 at minimum most likely:

In no particular order: Kincaid / Mayer / Washington / LaPorta / Musgrave / Kraft

Truth is UNLESS something crazy happens and a massive run on TEs happen the likelihood of two of these guys setting there for our second round pick is very high. So the question Gute would need to figure out is how far apart do I have these guys graded....how likely am I to be able to get Big Dog resigned cheap to serve alone one of these guys if I only get one.

It is honestly for this trend reasoning that unless we do a trade back, I'm less and less inclined to believe using a first rounder on a TE is the wisest of decisions.

Throw in the fact that teams might be thinking the same thing (plenty of quality ones) about TE's and opt to wait until the 2nd round or later to take one. The key will be to be in the sweet spot, before the run starts. When will it start is the key question and I think the Packers are in a good position to get one of the top tier TE's with their 2nd round pick and if they want to wait, a 2nd tier TE would be available in the 3rd round.

Of course, Gute has spent two 3rd round picks on TE's thus far and not faired well, unless Deguara pans out. We may see more out of Deguara this season. He fits into the type of offense MLF likes to run, which is a bit different than the offense that Rodgers liked to run.

 

[OldSchool101]

Wilson, when healthy, is a really good player. Stylistically, he’s very similar to Doubs.

That’s exactly the player comparison I was going to make! I just never wrote it but he’s not only in that same style, but I suspect that same draft area (back of Day 2 - Front of Day 3)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I do agree that getting a solid OT is a priority. Even if he hadn't injured his knee, Bakh is getting on.

Bakhtiari is still an elite left tackle. The Packers might be in need of an upgrade on the right side though.

Dalton Kincaid looks like he could really help the offense. Not sure if LaFleur would go for him but it's said he does block well is space.

According to PFF Kincaid was an average blocker in college at best.

I personally, since our staff believes that we have two legit young ascending WRs already on the roster in Watson and Doubs, have zero issue with if things would work out we wouldn't take a WR till round 4 or 5....especially if say Corey Davis is part of the trade back to us with the Jets.

I would be fine with the Packers not using an early rounder on a pass catcher if they get an NFL ready player at either wide receiver or tight end in return for Rodgers. Otherwise they desperately need to surround Love with better talent.

 

[Todd Princl]

My biggest takeaway from this, draft interior DL from Miss State lol

Yeah I remember we in this group were quite high on him. He would have been a good one. I wonder if Jalen Carter suffers the same fate.

 

[OldSchool101]

I want a Tackler. Not an Offensive Tackle or a Defensive Tackle.
Just someone who can Tackle.
It can be a Punter idk

 

[tynimiller]

A move around draft Gute style might look like:

Jets gave us 2.42 / 4.112 / 2024 2nd / Corey Davis for Rodgers / 7.232 / 7.256

Gute makes two additional trade backs and one forward Day 1 to just drive a ton of Packer fans crazy with anxiety. Ends up with:

1.27 Will McDonald EDGE
2.35 Darnell Washington TE
2.42 Julius Brents DB
3.78 Jonathan Mingo WR
3.79 Blake Freeland OT
4.112 Byron Young iDL
4.116 Chandler Zavala OG
5.151 Matt Landers WR (MVS with different name)
5.170 Clayton Tune QB
7.235 Jordan Howden S
7.242 Ben VanSurmeren

*Few notes...Mingo and Freeland are the steals IMO and both are wildcards that I think could go in the 2nd but are definitely Day 2 guys.
Ben VanSurmeren is a guy I LOVE for late Day 3 LB depth and oober athletic one at that for ST play.
Landers is a long crazy high jumping sub 4.4 guy that can be that guy whose main role is to stretch the defense to open up under for Watson and Doubs and others to do damage.
Tune is my absolute favorite QB after Day 2.

 

[Dantés]

Say the Packers don’t have pick #13 and the top 14 unfold like this:

1. CAR: A. Richardson, QB
2. HOU: C. Stroud, QB
3. LV: B. Young, QB
4. IND: W. Levis, QB
5. SEA: J. Carter, iDL
6. DET: W. Anderson, ED
7. ARI: C. Gonzalez, CB
8. ATL: B. Robinson, RB
9. CHI: P. Johnson, OT
10. PHI: T. Wilson, ED
11. TEN: L. Van Ness, ED
12. HOU: J. Smith-Njigba, WR
13. NYJ: B. Jones, OT
14. NE: D. Wright, OT

So now you’re on the clock with the top pass catcher gone and the top tackles cleaned out. The trade back market is dry.

Consider this:

The Packers lost 1200 snaps on the DL between Lowry and Reed, plus Clark needs his work load reduced. Even with Wyatt taking a much bigger role, they’re shy basically a starter level workload (~700 snaps).

This DL class is very shallow. The quality dries up quickly.

Bryan Bresee profiles like a Packer all day long. They like to take DL high in the draft, he’s a 9.6 RAS player, and he’s only 21.

He would be a very Green Bay pick. And while I would prefer help for Love, I would understand it, especially because the top of this WR class isn’t good. I’d rather him than a TE in round 1.

 

[Schultz]

I could see that but other positions of need I have players I like as much or more than him will make this pick interesting. Based on above guys gone. IMO.
OL- Skoronski
DB- Joey Porter
WR-JSN
E-N. Smith
Anyway, Gute should be picking a pretty good prospect in that spot. I am in the camp of TE 2nd round or later. I also hope if they take a 2nd TE it is not until round 7. Of course the Jets trade could alter some of my thoughts depending on what they get in return for AR.

 

[Todd Princl]

I did a little straight up mock. I was looking edge in the first, but I couldn’t pass up Jones.

 

[tynimiller]

I could see that but other positions of need I have players I like as much or more than him will make this pick interesting. Based on above guys gone. IMO.
OL- Skoronski
DB- Joey Porter
WR-JSN
E-N. Smith
Anyway, Gute should be picking a pretty good prospect in that spot. I am in the camp of TE 2nd round or later. I also hope if they take a 2nd TE it is not until round 7. Of course the Jets trade could alter some of my thoughts depending on what they get in return for AR.

JSN wasn’t available. Skoronski doesn’t have the mold of a high level tackle - personally I think he is the best NFL guard in the draft.

 

[Dantés]

I could see that but other positions of need I have players I like as much or more than him will make this pick interesting. Based on above guys gone. IMO.
OL- Skoronski
DB- Joey Porter
WR-JSN
E-N. Smith
Anyway, Gute should be picking a pretty good prospect in that spot. I am in the camp of TE 2nd round or later. I also hope if they take a 2nd TE it is not until round 7. Of course the Jets trade could alter some of my thoughts depending on what they get in return for AR.

Yeah, people love Skoronski. I think he's a guard, and I am not sold that he will be an elite one (I read comps to Scherff, Martin, Bitonion, etc. and I'm not there).

I know nothing about these corners. But with Alexander, Douglas, Nixon, and Stokes on his way back, DL is a much more pressing need and a shallower class. The corner you'll find later is better than the DL you'll find later.

I had JSN gone at #12.

Nolan Smith would be A OK with me, but again the edge class is deeper and the need isn't as pressing.

 

[Pkrjones]

Say the Packers don’t have pick #13 and the top 14 unfold like this:

1. CAR: A. Richardson, QB
2. HOU: C. Stroud, QB
3. LV: B. Young, QB
4. IND: W. Levis, QB
5. SEA: J. Carter, iDL
6. DET: W. Anderson, ED
7. ARI: C. Gonzalez, CB
8. ATL: B. Robinson, RB
9. CHI: P. Johnson, OT
10. PHI: T. Wilson, ED
11. TEN: L. Van Ness, ED
12. HOU: J. Smith-Njigba, WR
13. NYJ: B. Jones, OT
14. NE: D. Wright, OT

So now you’re on the clock with the top pass catcher gone and the top tackles cleaned out. The trade back market is dry.

Below are premium-position guys OR fill a position of need for GB.

Edge - N. Smith, M. Murphy, McDonald
CB - Witherspoon, Porter
DL - B. Bresee, K. White
OT - P. Skoronski
OG - O. Torrence
TE - M. Mayer, D. Kincaid
WR - Q. Johnston, J. Addison, Z. Flowers

I'd probably take Peter Skoronski and make him the day 1 RG starter, giving Nijman (&/or Walker) a year to prove they're NFL starting RT material (with Skoronski replacing them if injured or they suck too bad).

2nd place option - B. Bresee at DE/DT, would rotate in & compete for snaps early on with the 3 vets (Clark, Slaton & Wyatt).

3rd best option - Smith or Murphy on the Edge. Never hurts to have too many OLB's and would get some early snaps as Gary works back from knee.

 

[OldSchool101]

1.27 Will McDonald EDGE
2.35 Darnell Washington TE
2.42 Julius Brents DB
3.78 Jonathan Mingo WR
3.79 Blake Freeland OT
4.112 Byron Young iDL

I actually did a Mock with us getting Jets #42. Then I used 3 small, early trade backs acquiring lots of top 120 picks along the way.
I consolidated later selections and negotiated to get like 8 selections in that range.
I landed
Maher at 27
D. Washington at 38
I intended on D Wright but got greedy in a trade and lost him just before my selection.
Got
Edge Will McDonald IV at 50
DL Gervin Dexter at 62
S Jordan Battle at 78
WR Michael Wilson 98
WR Jonathan Mingo 100
RB Tyjae Spears 114
CB Mekhi Garner 146
OT Carter Warren 170
K Noah Ruggles 195
(My thought was offering Crosby a minimal contract to stay 1 year or just moving on this season)

 

[Schultz]

I could see that but other positions of need I have players I like as much or more than him will make this pick interesting. Based on above guys gone. IMO.
OL- Skoronski
DB- Joey Porter
WR-JSN
E-N. Smith
Anyway, Gute should be picking a pretty good prospect in that spot. I am in the camp of TE 2nd round or later. I also hope if they take a 2nd TE it is not until round 7. Of course the Jets trade could alter some of my thoughts depending on what they get in return for AR.

JSN wasn’t available. Skoronski doesn’t have the mold of a high level tackle - personally I think he is the best NFL guard in the draft.

Thanks for the JSN correction. I always thought a guard was an Offensive Lineman.

 

[milani]

I could see that but other positions of need I have players I like as much or more than him will make this pick interesting. Based on above guys gone. IMO.
OL- Skoronski
DB- Joey Porter
WR-JSN
E-N. Smith
Anyway, Gute should be picking a pretty good prospect in that spot. I am in the camp of TE 2nd round or later. I also hope if they take a 2nd TE it is not until round 7. Of course the Jets trade could alter some of my thoughts depending on what they get in return for AR.

That name Skoronski really brings back memories.