Game flow should be considered too. If you're 28-24 at the time and headed for a shootout you're probably going to want to go for it, if it's a 10-3 defensive struggle, take the points.
Exactly. There’s quite a few variables in the decision to go for it.
What’s our 4th down%
How have we been in short yardage thus far?
What are the affecting weather conditions?
Are you losing or winning the game?
Who has the momentum?
How much time is left?
These are just a few variables that come to mind off the top of my head. While I disagree, I’m not going to crucify MLF as he’s got a “keep the gas pedal down” philosophy and we’ve been missing that. Also he might have the confidence and considered that we could win the game without the extra 4 points (we did).
Yeah, I'm pretty sure, "Take the points early. Go for it late" is a maxim. Maxims are maxims. That call went against my grain, and it gave me one.
IMO. It’s too early in the game to gamble for 7 verses taking 3. In the 4th quarter I might take that gamble, depending on the score and particularly if Im behind and calculating a limited # of possessions on the game clock.
The likelihood of the 3 points was near 100%.
The “expected points” has to be lowered slighting by our failure to convert a 4th down yet this season. (We’re now 0-4). I believe the average would be slightly less than 50/50 here. 7(45%) =3.15 points area. That’s leaning down due to the increasing factor of poor field conditions (less scoring and a higher chance of error). To me, this is the same as working the clock to probability. When you are ahead the % chance of winning increases slightly play by play. When you are losing just the opposite.
(Take into account what we all know in a final drive situations within 2 minutes. There’s a similar trade off for yards verses seconds. We’ve all seen it. Don’t get caught wasting 20 of 60 seconds for 2 yards on your side of the field.)
In this scenario, the FG would increase the lead more and further the clock (although miniscule at the 1 yard line). Taking that factor and that we play 1 half game and get the ball first? I like our chances going up 7. It’s then basically 7-0 our lead with 1/2 game left and you kick to me first and I get the ball in #12 hands. I’ll place a bet on that one.