2019 Week 10 vs. Carolina: Studs and Duds

[Pugger]

No time to read all 5 pages of this thread...that said.. a huge dud for the one Carolina fan that got more airtime than Aaron Rodgers... ridiculous!!!!

Are you talking about the father of the Panthers' QB who is from Wisconsin?

 

[adambr2]

Thanks for all the positive feedback gentlemen. If only I was as smart and eloquent as you guys. Oh well, life goes on. One thing I am not, is blinded by my allegiance to the Packers. I call 'em like I see 'em and if that ruffles a few feathers so be it. Mondio, I would wager that 95% of the NFL fan base couldn't tell you who Kyle Allen is. PFIC, what a stupid post and switset, finally someone who agrees with me on something. Now you 3 can put on your homer goggles and grace me with some big time knowledge.

Thanks for all the positive feedback gentlemen. If only I was as smart and eloquent as you guys. Oh well, life goes on. One thing I am not, is blinded by my allegiance to the Packers. I call 'em like I see 'em and if that ruffles a few feathers so be it. Mondio, I would wager that 95% of the NFL fan base couldn't tell you who Kyle Allen is. PFIC, what a stupid post and switset, finally someone who agrees with me on something. Now you 3 can put on your homer goggles and grace me with some big time knowledge.

Is there something about Allen's performance that makes you skeptical of him? I thought he was quite good. His throws were on point. I was really impressed with how he looked getting the ball out even when the pass rush got to him quickly.

I'm just looking for something concrete on why you think we failed against him. It's not like he was throwing up ducks and we were dropping them or he was getting all day to stand in the pocket. Allen has made every defense he's faced besides the 49ers look not so great this year. He looks pretty legitimate.

 

[JKramer64]

Defense as a whole were studs. Don't care how many yards they g ave up. Only one stat matters and they only gave up 16. They had two stops in the red zone and two turnovers and almost had a third on McCaffery's fumble. They also kept McCaffery in check, relatively speaking. He never was that big of a factor.
The pass rush was solid as well and watching Jimmy G tonight, he can be rattled. The 49ers are beatable.

 

[AmishMafia]

Have you ever heard of Vince Lombardi? What do you suppose he would think of the Defense? What do you think he would do with guys who were poor tacklers? He'd cut them. They wouldn't have a job. You two might be the only guys that apparently have never uttered a bad word about the Packers and if you ever do, it's in a "NICE" way. Congratulations.

Really?

Go back 60 years ago this week. Lombardi's first year. The Packers are 3-5 and suffered a 45-6 shellacking at the hands of the LA Rams. The worst team in football. The Packers were on a 5 game losing streak.

At this point MLF is more successful than Lombardi in his career. Bear in mind that the 1959 Packers had far more talent, including 7 future HOFers.

Can you imagine your state of mind? You would have wanted Lombardi fired.

Every team has holes, it's the nature of football.

The Packers were a better team than the other on 80% of games.

The Packers are still learning new systems under a 1st year HC.

MLF one of the most successful first time coaches ever for taking over for a coach who was fired.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Defense as a whole were studs. Don't care how many yards they g ave up. Only one stat matters and they only gave up 16. They had two stops in the red zone and two turnovers and almost had a third on McCaffery's fumble. They also kept McCaffery in check, relatively speaking. He never was that big of a factor.
The pass rush was solid as well and watching Jimmy G tonight, he can be rattled. The 49ers are beatable.

Yup, while Mike Pettines D is ranked 28 in average YPG, they are ranked 12th in PPG. The YPG are completely meaningless and PPG is the only stat that counts.



Well perhaps to even it out a little, I'm not a huge fan of the bend but don't break defense. Obviously if the offense is doing bad like it was in LA, that could be problematic with opponents winning TOP and offense getting limited opportunities.

BUT ...

The defense in general has been good enough that the offense can get away with some imperfect games and not have to score 35 points or more to win. I mean I'd prefer they do to add the pressure on opponents, and to show that they could hang with the Saints or Ravens. But Yesterday was a perfect example of the defense being able to do enough to allow room for error on the offense. I'd say that's pretty good.

 

[HardRightEdge]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2019_advanced.htm

But oooof it's amazing Martinez doesnt get thrown at every play looking at those stats

You have to be careful with those stats when it comes to LBs. They cover high percentage throws where there are few INT opportunities leading to high completion percentages against and high QB ratings against if they give up any TDs.

Martinez's coverage stats from this source are slightly better than Bobby Wagner's this season though opponents target Wagner less often:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WagnBo00.htm

Kuechley's numbers are better, particularly in yards per target while still giving up 69% completion rate.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KuecLu00.htm

Myles Jack, the #36 pick in Martinez's draft class, has good coverage numbers this season except for the 4 TDs surrendered which trashes his passer rating against:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackMy00.htm

Consider the highly touted rookies, White and Bush:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WhitDe02.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BushDe01.htm

White had been injured and missed games so there's not much data, but on passer rating against basis there's not much to differentiate these guys from Martinez. Like Jack, Bush has nice numbers except his 4 TDs against are hurt his rating, not as much because he has two picks to go with it.

These comparisons are tricky business because you have to look at what the various schemes ask them to do, how those schemes might protect them, who is playing around them, and whether they get rotated out on certain plays. I'll leave it to somebody else to look at snap counts.

In fairness to Martinez, he's on the field for every snap, he's not protected or situationally substituted, he's the sole ILB on a high percentage of snaps in nickel or dime, and when he is paired with another ILB we've not gotten much quality play out of the position. Greene looked to be off to a good start all too briefly, Campbell might be an upgrade once he gets his sea legs.

I don't know how many 3-4 defenses there are, but if we say it's 50/50 with 4-3s, that gets you to 48 starting ILBs and theoretically 32 who are the primary coverage ILB who takes a lot of snaps with nickel/dime duty.

Martinez probably doesn't quite crack average in coverage, but given the scheme/all-snaps/pairings factors he's probably pretty close. My beef is primarily with his soft and late run D.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yup, while Mike Pettines D is ranked 28 in average YPG, they are ranked 12th in PPG. The YPG are completely meaningless and PPG is the only stat that counts.

Ultimately, games are won or loss because of the final score and the points scored or given up on that particular day. However, I would disagree that the YPG given up is a meaningless stat. It's a barometer of just how good (or bad) your defense is. If your defense is giving up a lot of YPG and you don't win the turnover battle on that day, the offense better be really good to compensate, because chances are, the defense is going to be giving up more points than normal that day, especially against a good offense.

Against both the Eagles and the Chargers, we forced zero turnovers and the offense sputtered as well against LAC, those 2 games didn't turn out well for us.

 

[Mondio]

Ultimately, games are won or loss because of the final score and the points scored or given up on that particular day. However, I would disagree that the YPG given up is a meaningless stat. It's a barometer of just how good (or bad) your defense is. If your defense is giving up a lot of YPG and you don't win the turnover battle on that day, the offense better be really good to compensate, because chances are, the defense is going to be giving up more points than normal that day, especially against a good offense.

Against both the Eagles and the Chargers, we forced zero turnovers and the offense sputtered as well against LAC, those 2 games didn't turn out well for us.

it's not just the turnovers. it's the offense going nowhere in the case of the chargers game and then punting to give them 50 yard fields to score with. and in the Eagles game, committing turnovers in scoring position, committing turnovers on our end putting them in scoring position and failure to gain that last yard did us in as much as anything.

I'd like to see more 3 and outs. I'd rather not see a turnover or a score usually being the result, but as long as those scores are usually FG's, this defense should still be enough to get us places. Provided our offense performs like it should.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

it's not just the turnovers. it's the offense going nowhere in the case of the chargers game and then punting to give them 50 yard fields to score with. and in the Eagles game, committing turnovers in scoring position, committing turnovers on our end putting them in scoring position and failure to gain that last yard did us in as much as anything.

I'd like to see more 3 and outs. I'd rather not see a turnover or a score usually being the result, but as long as those scores are usually FG's, this defense should still be enough to get us places. Provided our offense performs like it should.

Well I didn't say it was JUST turnovers, but yes you are right, there are many other factors that ultimately contribute to Wins and Losses. The point of my post was that I don't believe that YPG on either defense or offense is a meaningless stat, which was what the OP stated. Even saying "PPG is the only stat that counts" is incorrect. Ask the 3-6 Buccaneers, who's offense has scored the 3rd highest PPG, how that is working out for them. Or the 4-5 Bears whose defense is 4th in allowing the fewest PPG.

 

[Mondio]

It's almost as if the entirety of the team and all it encompasses and how it performs on game day is what is important. And many different factors go into it.

 

[tynimiller]

Studs....IMO opinion going unsung is Jimmy's day and King's day. Both have had some terrible games and stretches in games, but both I feel deserve some acknowledgement. Yes, King suffered when footing got tough at end but so did EVERY DB out there.
Obviously the back field is an easy Stud as well..

Duds...I mean I didn't really feel I saw anyone truly struggle the entirety of the day except maybe JK. Dude just straight didn't punt well.

Honorable mentions for studs...we'll say props: to Adams, Clark and Lowry...those three I felt were kinda unsung in the D's ability to slow down the rush attack of CAR.

 

[tynimiller]

shout out to stud....Fackrell. he blew through the line and made first contact with CMC...on final play. 51 plays hard.

Fackrell has only ever done one thing while in GB...do everything he can to help the team.

 

[Dantés]

Studs....IMO opinion going unsung is Jimmy's day and King's day. Both have had some terrible games and stretches in games, but both I feel deserve some acknowledgement. Yes, King suffered when footing got tough at end but so did EVERY DB out there.
Obviously the back field is an easy Stud as well..

Duds...I mean I didn't really feel I saw anyone truly struggle the entirety of the day except maybe JK. Dude just straight didn't punt well.

Honorable mentions for studs...we'll say props: to Adams, Clark and Lowry...those three I felt were kinda unsung in the D's ability to slow down the rush attack of CAR.

My recollection-- King got picked on for a ton of completions in that game. This also included him apparently getting a defensive play call completely wrong and not covering his man.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I've made the observation in a couple of posts where Martinez had at least two plays where he was standing over the hole unblocked and waved McCaffrey by earning him my new nickname, "The Matador".

For those of you who have Game Pass you can see what I'm talking about.

10:02, 3rd. Quarter, McCaffrey 9 yard run: There's a handy replay from behind the QB. There's no McCaffrey jump cut, ankle breaking move here. McCaffrey just angled right away from him, Martinez reached with one one hand and barely touched him. And it's not like he should have been protecting against a cut back left; this was base D with Goodson on that side. Just put a hat on the guy for gosh sakes.

That's the example I can readily find. There was one other about as bad. Maybe more I didn't notice or just missed because I didn't get every play on Red Zone. There's also the usual ration in this tape of Martinez getting stuck on a second level blocks. Again, it's not bad plays per se that matter, everybody has them, it's the frequency.

To Martinez's credit, he was able to bottle up McCaffrey on checkdowns in front of him. It's not all bad but it ain't predominantly good either.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's almost as if the entirety of the team and all it encompasses and how it performs on game day is what is important. And many different factors go into it.

By Jove I think you've got it Watson!

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Pugger]

Studs....IMO opinion going unsung is Jimmy's day and King's day. Both have had some terrible games and stretches in games, but both I feel deserve some acknowledgement. Yes, King suffered when footing got tough at end but so did EVERY DB out there.
Obviously the back field is an easy Stud as well..

Duds...I mean I didn't really feel I saw anyone truly struggle the entirety of the day except maybe JK. Dude just straight didn't punt well.

Honorable mentions for studs...we'll say props: to Adams, Clark and Lowry...those three I felt were kinda unsung in the D's ability to slow down the rush attack of CAR.

Yes, what is up with our punter? He was crushing it until the last 3 weeks. He can't be fatigued...

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Well I didn't say it was JUST turnovers, but yes you are right, there are many other factors that ultimately contribute to Wins and Losses. The point of my post was that I don't believe that YPG on either defense or offense is a meaningless stat, which was what the OP stated. Even saying "PPG is the only stat that counts" is incorrect. Ask the 3-6 Buccaneers, who's offense has scored the 3rd highest PPG, how that is working out for them. Or the 4-5 Bears whose defense is 4th in allowing the fewest PPG.

Well factoring in that the Packer offense has averaged 25 PPG to 20.5 PPG on defense ... More often than not the law of averages are telling me that'll get you more wins than losses. Bucs are 3rd yes with 28.9 ppg on offense, but when you got 31 ppg on defense, that's usually not going to get you far. Bears are almost dead even at 18 ppg on offense and 17.4 on defense. That'd almost translate into a winning season but for that kicker's missed chip shot FG against the Chargers. Crazy how a little thing like that can hang a team's season in the balance.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yup, while Mike Pettines D is ranked 28 in average YPG, they are ranked 12th in PPG. The YPG are completely meaningless and PPG is the only stat that counts.

The issue with giving up yards often equates to giving up both field position and clock. Those both, in turn, result in keeping the ball out of Aaron Rodgers paws. It also puts us in unfavorable down and distance. Coupled with poor ST it has limited our Offensive scoring potential thus far. We should be 27-30 pts O scoring range IMO.

Ultimately, to your point, 20.5 points average against our D is not insurmountable for our Offense to overcome. But when we face higher octane Offenses (playoffs) it gives them more scoring opportunities. So far we’ve dodged some bullets, but we need to do a better job getting off the field on 3rd down, which our D involves limiting the 3rd n Short scenario and increasing passing situations for our pass rush to get home and forcing a few more punts per game. Much of it comes with slowing their Running game.

So while 20.5 points is decent for a Defense, just a small reduction in the opposition’s ability to extend drives would increase the 25.0 points our Offense is putting up and create more pressure for opponents, thus giving an opportunistic D in GB more chances to end the game earlier. A good team like Seattle will beat us in the playoffs if we let them hang around.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Let's see - I call you a gentleman and you call me a "pansy" and a "*****". Talk about melodramatic. Surely you must know that I didn't mean that Savage literally can't tackle. That would be silly. For all I know, Allen might turn out to be that greatest QB to ever play the game. Am I wrong in saying that the Packer D is making quite a few QB's look great? I asked for big time knowledge and all you give me are insults.

Okay gentlemen, let`s keep it civil, both of you. Discussion is fine, insults, not really.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Adams..Smith bros..

Dud MLF for run instead of fg

Some little things that add up to big things:

Jake Kumerow had a nice day catching the ball. He also had a nice tackle on ST and a great block on Eric Reid that resulted in a long run for Aaron Jones.

Ibraheim Campbell logged about 40 snaps after coming back after a bad injury that sidelined him for the better part of 11 months. He forced a fumble by Christian McCaffrey with a punch-out, although Carolina recovered the ball. Nice to have him back.

One commentator on a local sports radio show credited Blake Martinez with moving Kyler Fackrell from the edge to the middle of the field on the final play of the game. Fackrell knifed through the line and made contact with McCaffrey, blunting his momentum. Obviously that was huge.


And, although this may irritate some, it would be dishonest not to acknowledge that the product on the field was put there, by and large, by Mark Murphy. He put Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur in their respective positions, and those both appear to have been great decisions. Well done.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

It's just ridiculous to say we made him look like a HOF QB. Oh he did good, but at the end of the day ...

307 passing yards - pretty good

1 TD pass - pedestrian

1 RZ interception + 1 Fum lost - bad

QBR - 84.2 - pretty good but he's had much higher than that against other teams


See, I just don't put a whole ton of stock into passing yards because how you got them matters. If you've got a Christian McCaffrey or a Dalvin Cook to just dump it off to and they go shake and bake in the open field doing much of the work for you, just how good of a passer are you? And how meaningful are those passing yards if all you get out of them are 16 points?


And that's no slight on Kyle Allen. He did well, and there's a reason why there's already talk of moving on from Cam Newton in Charlotte. But man ... We made him look like a Hall of fame QB? Really? It's not like he pulled a Matt Flynn and threw for 6 TDs in the game. If those numbers are the gold standard for QBs Flynn should get about 3 busts put up for him in Canton.


Man oh man, next thing he'll do is bring up Matt Moore who's only loss in his playing time this year came against Green Bay. Or I know I know ... He'll bring up Derek Carr and Dak Prescott and remind all of us of what junky backup QBs they are, yes oh yes they are such junky QBs with those stats ... Oh wait a minute now.

 

[tynimiller]

My recollection-- King got picked on for a ton of completions in that game. This also included him apparently getting a defensive play call completely wrong and not covering his man.

Busted coverage play did occur...but just like I wouldn't give Rodgers a dud rating for the whole game based on the fact he is a HOF'er that seemingly has perfected the art of getting delay of game calls like they're going out of style.

 

[Dantés]

Busted coverage play did occur...but just like I wouldn't give Rodgers a dud rating for the whole game based on the fact he is a HOF'er that seemingly has perfected the art of getting delay of game calls like they're going out of style.

Sure. But King also got picked on a ton. They made a lot of plays throwing into his coverage. It was clearly a part of their gameplan, and most of the time it worked.

 

[tynimiller]

Sure. But King also got picked on a ton. They made a lot of plays throwing into his coverage. It was clearly a part of their gameplan, and most of the time it worked.

100% but besides the blown coverage, it was clear King was trying to keep footing and allow nothing past him, which when crunch time happened he did. I concede calling him a stud for the game could be a reach, but felt he deserved it for so many calling for his head at times this year (myself included)

 

[Dantés]

100% but besides the blown coverage, it was clear King was trying to keep footing and allow nothing past him, which when crunch time happened he did. I concede calling him a stud for the game could be a reach, but felt he deserved it for so many calling for his head at times this year (myself included)

That seems like a lot of excuse making for a guy who gave up a lot of receptions.

If he has to allow everything to be completed in front of him so that he doesn't get burned, what does that tell you about him?