Which Two Wide Outs do we want?

[Heyjoe4]

Realistic guys where the Packers pick.
1. Burks #22
2. Pickens #28
3. Dotson #53
4. Metchie #59
5. Tolbert #92
I am not advocating they draft all 5 of these guys. I am just saying I see value in each of them at these corresponding spots.

Hey Shultz what do you think about Watson? I agree on Burks at #22, even if Olave is available.

 

[Heyjoe4]

You and many others have to stop taking "no deals done" as inaction. If there is one thing Gute has proven, he is anything but stagnant in moves both in draft, signing FAs, making trades or shuffling the roster.

I think Gute is learning the WR market for trades is just ignorant this year as was top level WR in FA. I think outside of a Julio Jones or AJ Green signing before the draft, I expect it will be draft day trades or drafts before we make a FA move again.

Yeah I think you're right. And one reason a guy like Julio Jones is still available is that he wants too much. I don't know it for a fact. They do need a veteran W?R at some point, but before or after the draft is fine, as is looking for cap casualties.

 

[Heyjoe4]

There you go, you nailed the things that still have to happen. When those things actually do happen, I would say depending on the chemistry with Rodgers and his new group of WR's, we might be talking about a team that will contend for a SB.

Like you and every other Packer fan, I expect the WR room to be added to, but we all thought that in 2020 and it wasn't. So until it is, we can only speculate how it might or might not be improved.

I also think the Packers are going to miss Turner and Patrick, more than one would think.

That's an affirmative on Turner and Patrick, especially until Bakh and Jenkins get back in the lineup. This year, they need a solid OL. A lot of new faces in the wR room, and Rodgers will need time.

 

[Schultz]

My opinion is that agents feel they have Gute over a barrel with the current heavy need at WR. After the draft probably not so much. He can then negotiate more to his liking.

 

[tynimiller]

That's an affirmative on Turner and Patrick, especially until Bakh and Jenkins get back in the lineup. This year, they need a solid OL. A lot of new faces in the wR room, and Rodgers will need time.

The saving grace is you don't have inexperienced or rookies starting IMO outside perhaps one this year at either RG or RT

LT will be Bakh again and if healthy is still a Top 5 or so LT
LG Runyon has progressed and third season should really show I'd assume
C Myers is healthy and was great in a rookie year with injuries
RG Newman or Rookie...if Newman okay, his head is higher above water now than last year
RT Yosh...no longer again just trying to keep his head above water - he proved he can have success now to string it together.

Where the OL suffers is depth is all but gone. Cole Van Lanen I've heard was making amazing strides in absorbing and growing into the NFL, expect year two him to push hard for a depth spot, Hanson has a make or break year before him to be backup Center.

This is why I place a versatile athletic guy with good arm length nearly must be picked before end of Day 2 and I believe is quite the possibility, if not don't be surprised if we double down quick on Day 3. I LOVE Newman's future, but I would love to have someone either steal that RG spot or push Newman to be better....a for sure starting RT is also a possibility putting Yosh back into a reserve role for injury.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Agreed Poker. IMO, they need to come out of rounds 1 and 2 with two WRs, one iDL, and one OL (T or G).

Could be. I would be fine with any position on defense getting one of those top 4 picks. While there is a need at iDL, I think the signing of Reed really reduced that need. Take the best defensive player available would be my hope, as long as it doesn't interfere with trying to improve at WR. I am also fine with skipping OL if there is one TE they really like a lot available at the end of round 2. Kind of like defense, best player available, unless its a QB, RB or Center.

 

[Heyjoe4]

My opinion is that agents feel they have Gute over a barrel with the current heavy need at WR. After the draft probably not so much. He can then negotiate more to his liking.

There's no doubt Gluten is in a position of weakness when trying to trade for a WR. Every GM knows he needs to restock that room, and the draft is only part of the answer.

Fortunately he has a lot of draft capital to work with. And don't be surprised if a trade involves the Packers giving up a player. The RB group has two legitimate starters, one on a rookie contract and one making $12 mil year. And they have a decent #3 in Hill and can draft another. I'm not saying it will happen. I'm saying it might have to happen to get the right WR. I hope it doesn't come to that. Jones and Dillon are arguably the best backfield in football.

 

[McKnowledge]

The way I see Garrett is worth a #15 range on my big board. However At #17 he’s a moderate-high value for the Packers because of need at the position and how it starts the draft momentum after that.

Honestly, if I can't get Wilson naturally #22 then I'm trading back and hopefully getting some picks in the 32-45 range.

GB has a huge void in the 32-50 range where there are just so many good prospects, covering many positions that need a look.

Also, the 60-90 range has gems as well.

I'm all over the place with the receivers and I include TEs as well.

I'd rather accumulate more picks in this range kind of drafting in bulk.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Could be. I would be fine with any position on defense getting one of those top 4 picks. While there is a need at iDL, I think the signing of Reed really reduced that need. Take the best defensive player available would be my hope, as long as it doesn't interfere with trying to improve at WR. I am also fine with skipping OL if there is one TE they really like a lot available at the end of round 2. Kind of like defense, best player available, unless its a QB, RB or Center.

Well they are as needy at TE as they are at WR. There is no round 1 TE talent this year, but there are some guys projecting to round 2. They need a receiving TE more than an in-line, blocking TE. They could go the trade route there as well.

 

[OldSchool101]

Agreed Poker. IMO, they need to come out of rounds 1 and 2 with two WRs, one iDL, and one OL (T or G).

Yes that’s be perfect.
Then As much as I’d like a TE or iLB (nothing you said just piggybacking) those are both positions we can find a good player inside 4 rounds.

It’s hard to find a starting WR at 3rd-5th rounds, but we seem to have good luck and Good upside at off-ball LB and OL depth in that range. Martinez, R Rodgers, Linsley just some recent examples.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yes that’s be perfect.
Then As much as I’d like a TE or iLB (nothing you said just piggybacking) those are both positions we can find a good player inside 4 rounds.

It’s hard to find a starting WR at 3rd-5th rounds, but we seem to have good luck and Good upside at off-ball LB and OL depth in that range. Martinez, R Rodgers, Linsley just some recent examples.

Especially at OL, seems GB has done a good job drafting guys that do well - Bakh, Linsley, Runyan, others I'm missing. And yeah, in terms of priority, put ILB and TE in the 3rd and fourth rounds if needed. There's still talent there, it's just harder to find.

 

[JimmyTaylorNut31]

I understand Jameson Williams having amazing speed and ability and I don't doubt that he can be another J'marr Chase but he may not be in a camp until late if at all. I don't think we need somebody coming off an ACL injury. The Packers need someone with great talent that can be a number 1 or 2 receiver right away. It is so crazy the wide range of opinion on how long it takes to come off an ACL injury. Some writers are questioning if Tonyan can be ready for the start of training camp and he hurt his knee a couple months before Williams did. Then you have the Adrian Peterson who was playing running back at a very high level in 10 months. Baktiari couldn't make it back to play in a playoff game over 12 months later. Williams got injured in the National Championship game January 10. It realistically could be October easily before he is 100%. The Packers need someone who can be ready to go at the rookie camp right away! I believe Jahan Dotson is not who we want either. The Packers have not picked a receiver that small in a really long time. Doing so in the first round makes no sense at all. He is 5'11'' 184 and has small 9.5" hands. That's a big NO THANKS from me. NextGen stats rates him 6.25 will eventually be an average starter. Not what we need. Burks, Pickens, Watson all have size and the speed and great hands. DTP's Daniel Parlegreco rates Burks as the number one WR. PFF says his drop rate is 7.4%. The guy with the lowest drop rate is George Pickens at 2.1% and Skyy Moore is second at 3.3%. That means that those guys only drop two or three passes out of every 100 that are thrown to them. Christian Watson is at 12.7% so, even with his size and athletic ability that worries me a little. I really like Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, and Bo Melton and even John Metchie. My draft book also says Dotson would be best at slot receiver.
So unless Olave, London, or Wilson drop to 22 I would love getting Burks at 22. If all of them are gone by then I would love to see the Packers move back just a little ways and pick up another pick. Early to 53 I would rate the receivers (fit for Packers) George Pickens, John Metchie, Skyy Moore, Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, Bo Melton, Christian Watson. That's my opinion from tape, DTP's draft book, and NFL.com and reading lots of articles.

 

[tynimiller]

I understand Jameson Williams having amazing speed and ability and I don't doubt that he can be another J'marr Chase but he may not be in a camp until late if at all. I don't think we need somebody coming off an ACL injury. The Packers need someone with great talent that can be a number 1 or 2 receiver right away. It is so crazy the wide range of opinion on how long it takes to come off an ACL injury. Some writers are questioning if Tonyan can be ready for the start of training camp and he hurt his knee a couple months before Williams did. Then you have the Adrian Peterson who was playing running back at a very high level in 10 months. Baktiari couldn't make it back to play in a playoff game over 12 months later. Williams got injured in the National Championship game January 10. It realistically could be October easily before he is 100%. The Packers need someone who can be ready to go at the rookie camp right away! I believe Jahan Dotson is not who we want either. 1.The Packers have not picked a receiver that small in a really long time. Doing so in the first round makes no sense at all. He is 5'11'' 184 and has small 9.5" hands. That's a big NO THANKS from me. NextGen stats rates him 6.25 will eventually be an average starter. Not what we need. Burks, Pickens, Watson all have size and the speed and great hands. DTP's Daniel Parlegreco rates Burks as the number one WR. PFF says his drop rate is 7.4%. The guy with the lowest drop rate is George Pickens at 2.1% and Skyy Moore is second at 3.3%. That means that those guys only drop two or three passes out of every 100 that are thrown to them. Christian Watson is at 12.7% so, even with his size and athletic ability that worries me a little. I really like Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, and 2.Bo Melton and even John Metchie. My draft book also says Dotson would be best at slot receiver.
So unless Olave, London, or Wilson drop to 22 I would love getting Burks at 22. If all of them are gone by then I would love to see the Packers move back just a little ways and pick up another pick. Early to 53 I would rate the receivers (fit for Packers) George Pickens, John Metchie, 3.Skyy Moore, Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, Bo Melton, Christian Watson. That's my opinion from tape, DTP's draft book, and NFL.com and reading lots of articles.

Just couple notes...

1. Jahan is 5'10.5" (178lbs at combine) - Amari Rodgers is 5'9.5", less than a year ago we drafted someone shorter.

2. Bo Melton is 5'11" and Metchie is 5'11.2" both essentially half an inch shorter than Dotson.

3. Skyy is 5'9.5" the shortest of everyone listed.


I actually don't disagree a ton with guys you like vs ones you don't. I prefer Pickens over them all at this point honestly.

 

[OldSchool101]

My opinion is that agents feel they have Gute over a barrel with the current heavy need at WR. After the draft probably not so much. He can then negotiate more to his liking.

I agree. With each passing day without a contract, the average market value is decreasing. There is bound to be a FA still standing that will take a relative “prove it” or discounted contract.

 

[Mondio]

They might feel that way, but nobody else has signed them either. At this point, if they're not cheap, like cheap cheap, I don't want them. Guys with the same question marks they have in terms of durability, age, availability etc are going to be available after the draft and as vets get cut. unless i can move some picks to get a younger and established guy, i'm holding tight until after draft day.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I understand Jameson Williams having amazing speed and ability and I don't doubt that he can be another J'marr Chase but he may not be in a camp until late if at all. I don't think we need somebody coming off an ACL injury. The Packers need someone with great talent that can be a number 1 or 2 receiver right away. It is so crazy the wide range of opinion on how long it takes to come off an ACL injury. Some writers are questioning if Tonyan can be ready for the start of training camp and he hurt his knee a couple months before Williams did. Then you have the Adrian Peterson who was playing running back at a very high level in 10 months. Baktiari couldn't make it back to play in a playoff game over 12 months later. Williams got injured in the National Championship game January 10. It realistically could be October easily before he is 100%. The Packers need someone who can be ready to go at the rookie camp right away! I believe Jahan Dotson is not who we want either. The Packers have not picked a receiver that small in a really long time. Doing so in the first round makes no sense at all. He is 5'11'' 184 and has small 9.5" hands. That's a big NO THANKS from me. NextGen stats rates him 6.25 will eventually be an average starter. Not what we need. Burks, Pickens, Watson all have size and the speed and great hands. DTP's Daniel Parlegreco rates Burks as the number one WR. PFF says his drop rate is 7.4%. The guy with the lowest drop rate is George Pickens at 2.1% and Skyy Moore is second at 3.3%. That means that those guys only drop two or three passes out of every 100 that are thrown to them. Christian Watson is at 12.7% so, even with his size and athletic ability that worries me a little. I really like Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, and Bo Melton and even John Metchie. My draft book also says Dotson would be best at slot receiver.
So unless Olave, London, or Wilson drop to 22 I would love getting Burks at 22. If all of them are gone by then I would love to see the Packers move back just a little ways and pick up another pick. Early to 53 I would rate the receivers (fit for Packers) George Pickens, John Metchie, Skyy Moore, Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, Bo Melton, Christian Watson. That's my opinion from tape, DTP's draft book, and NFL.com and reading lots of articles.

Good analysis Jimmy, especially the drop rates. I don't much care for WRs under 6'. They may be ok for the slot, but on the perimeter, pass. And I'd be happy if they got Burks at #22. If DL/Edge Trayvon Walker is still there at #22 they should take him. There's a lot of WR talent in the draft. Not so much for the DL/Edge.

 

[Heyjoe4]

They might feel that way, but nobody else has signed them either. At this point, if they're not cheap, like cheap cheap, I don't want them. Guys with the same question marks they have in terms of durability, age, availability etc are going to be available after the draft and as vets get cut. unless i can move some picks to get a younger and established guy, i'm holding tight until after draft day.

At this point, that's the best strategy. Wait until after the draft, see if any WRs get released (there will be some) and go from there.

 

[tynimiller]

Good analysis Jimmy, especially the drop rates. I don't much care for WRs under 6'. They may be ok for the slot, but on the perimeter, pass. And I'd be happy if they got Burks at #22. If DL/Edge Trayvon Walker is still there at #22 they should take him. There's a lot of WR talent in the draft. Not so much for the DL/Edge.

I disagree on the edge claims at least. The shelves get sparse from high level floors of DLs but this draft is a premiere edge draft. Top shelf, second tier and even 90-140 pick prospects that very well may come in and start for teams. I love this edge class from quite a few angles personally.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I disagree on the edge claims at least. The shelves get sparse from high level floors of DLs but this draft is a premiere edge draft. Top shelf, second tier and even 90-140 pick prospects that very well may come in and start for teams. I love this edge class from quite a few angles personally.

Well then I'll look for the Packers to grab an Edge starter and impact player somewhere in the first four rounds. What players do you like in this category?

 

[tynimiller]

Well then I'll look for the Packers to grab an Edge starter and impact player somewhere in the first four rounds. What players do you like in this category?

Depends when...first round graders IMO that are Packer guys most likely will be gone - Walker, Hutch, Johnson and Kayvon and I do not like Boy Mafe in the first due to his age and Arnold Ebiketie from Penn State I love but he is older (not old) and just don't think will do it. George Karlaftis who could be there at 22 is a BEAST of a hybrid edge that is agile and athletic to stand up outside or the size and frame to reduce in and not miss a beat. Love him in the first and would even understand going him over a WR at 22.

In the second I am praying Drake Jackson, Logan Hall, Josh Paschal or Ebiketie is there if we want one at 53. Hall and Pashal are larger style poor mans' Karlaftis almost with Paschal being less so and more up and out rush guy. Drake and Arnold are 100% outside standing guys that I love.

In the third I'd be okay with a Sam Williams or even maybe Myjai Sanders

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I will be curious to see how elite EDGE and elite WR's are treated in the first round of the draft. Up until recently, the top EDGE players were way out in front for average pay per year. Thus, a hot commodity to grab an elite college one. WR's have now surpassed them. Given that the big contracts for WR's are probably pretty fresh in GM's minds, I think we will see WR's are a hot commodity this year. I hope I am wrong, because that is not what the Packers want to see happen. LT top salaries are now behind QB, WR, OLB as well.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Depends when...first round graders IMO that are Packer guys most likely will be gone - Walker, Hutch, Johnson and Kayvon and I do not like Boy Mafe in the first due to his age and Arnold Ebiketie from Penn State I love but he is older (not old) and just don't think will do it. George Karlaftis who could be there at 22 is a BEAST of a hybrid edge that is agile and athletic to stand up outside or the size and frame to reduce in and not miss a beat. Love him in the first and would even understand going him over a WR at 22.

In the second I am praying Drake Jackson, Logan Hall, Josh Paschal or Ebiketie is there if we want one at 53. Hall and Pashal are larger style poor mans' Karlaftis almost with Paschal being less so and more up and out rush guy. Drake and Arnold are 100% outside standing guys that I love.

In the third I'd be okay with a Sam Williams or even maybe Myjai Sanders

Sounds like a lot of talent. I hope Walker is there at #22, or Karlaftis. I'd take one of them over a WR at that spot.

 

[OldSchool101]

I will be curious to see how elite EDGE and elite WR's are treated in the first round of the draft. Up until recently, the top EDGE players were way out in front for average pay per year. Thus, a hot commodity to grab an elite college one. WR's have now surpassed them. Given that the big contracts for WR's are probably pretty fresh in GM's minds, I think we will see WR's are a hot commodity this year. I hope I am wrong, because that is not what the Packers want to see happen. LT top salaries are now behind QB, WR, OLB as well.

Interesting thought. I wonder if teams chart those conceptual values and as it applies to draft strategy. I’m sure I’m behind in that thought process.

I would guess there’s a top WR threshold. SO far this season, it’s mainly “elite” receivers that are getting the top end pay disparity. While other positions (like QB) run deeper than elite at the top pay scale.
That top 10 WR compensation is really is more stable than a top 10 QB (they all are paid pretty well) I’m just going off the top of my head but that’s my hypothesis anyway. I might draft a Ceedee Lamb a bit earlier on my big board, but a receiver outside the top 50 overall may not take as much priority. If that makes any sense I’m just thinking out loud.

 

[OldSchool101]

That's an affirmative on Turner and Patrick, especially until Bakh and Jenkins get back in the lineup. This year, they need a solid OL. A lot of new faces in the wR room, and Rodgers will need time.

While we are talking Wideouts. All this is interrelated. Giving Rodgers another stud OL pays dividends. He has shown that if he can make his reads (average to low pressure) he is dangerously good in the pocket. A guy like Penning that just WWF’s his guy and sits on them afterwards is warranted. If he catches a defender on a run block he just literally gets mean and nasty on them. He’s got a little Suh finish to him to the point the Defender is more worried about retaliation than he is where the play is. Just a film observation he really ticks off opponents to the point they lose concentration, which is very effective and crafty.

I’m really hoping he’s there at 20-something and we leave Day 1 with him and a top Wideout.
So what if we have 1 too many great OL when Elgton returns

 

[Schultz]

Hey Shultz what do you think about Watson? I agree on Burks at #22, even if Olave is available.

My fear with Watson is I think 1st round is too early and I think he will be gone by the time GB picks in the 2nd round.