The Point of the Draft Picks

[GleefulGary]

We all saw the LSU tape. The talent level on the field didn’t match up. Utah state was playing against a stacked roster of NFL caliber players. Let’s look at the games where his “below average receivers” faced DB’s in a Mountain west With the same talent level. This is a break down of loves TD/INT totals for all of 2019. Maybe his receivers weren’t getting separation so he had to force balls. Do you think this will change in a league that actually has shut down corners? The windows will only get tighter at the next level.


TD/ INT

wake Forest. 3, 3

Stony Brook 1, 0

San Diego State 0, 0

Colorado State 2, 2

LSU 0, 3

Nevada 1, 1

Air Force 1, 0

BYU 1, 3

Fresno State 2, 0

Wyoming 2, 2

Boise State 1, 1

New Mexico 3, 1

If you ask Jim Nagy, former Packers scout, former Seahawks scout, current head of SR bowl, the windows will only get bigger for Love.

That came from a direct quote of his. How he's the only player where at the next level his windows will only get bigger.

I'll try to post the article.

 

[Fat Dogs]

I became a Packer fan well before the "Favre-Rodgers Run" and had to watch a lot of garbage QB's take snaps in the Green and Gold. I have also watched many teams flail trying to find a starting QB, yet alone a franchise QB. A good stag way to the next post.



At some point in the very near future Gute was going to be forced with pulling the trigger on drafting Rodgers replacement. While my gut last Friday night screamed "too early, too early!!" when Love was picked, I rationalized the pick this way....

When and who do the Packers get to replace #12? Most of us thought next year or the year after, so mentally speaking few of us were prepared for this year. The fact is, no matter what year Gute jumped in to try this, he probably wasn't going to be getting the first, second or possibly even the 3rd crack at a QB in the draft. So what do you do then? Trade a ton of picks to move up for the guy you like? Still no guarantees.

This was a relatively "cheap" investment for the most expensive as well as the most influential position on a team. It was an investment in a guy that many thought would have been a top 10 pick, had it not been for his 2019 season being statistically off. IF it pays off, GREAT JOB Gute. If it doesn't pay off, we probably still have time while Rodgers is a Packer, to take another shot at it.

Agreed. We’ve been really lucky to have back to back HOF QB’s and they are hard to find. There have been so many great college QB’s that busted out in the pros.

I think some are preferring to look at his 2018 numbers due to the fact that he was surrounded by better players as well as a head coach that he had worked with from day 1.

His numbers looked better but not every QB has the luxury of being surrounded by great players. How about we make it more practical and place him with the packers receivers. Rodgers had to throw into tight spaces often because his receivers can’t separate. This is the real life situation that we could face if Aaron goes down. Do you really trust a QB that had 17 INTs throwing into (for argument sakes) “the same windows” against lesser competitors? I’m just not sold on his decision making and think we could have done much better. Time will only tell.

 

[Fat Dogs]

If you ask Jim Nagy, former Packers scout, former Seahawks scout, current head of SR bowl, the windows will only get bigger for Love.

That came from a direct quote of his. How he's the only player where at the next level his windows will only get bigger.

I'll try to post the article.

This is “scout talk.” Love didn’t play in the SEC. He forced balls into coverage and had trouble with pre-snap reads. This is why he had so many picks against mediocre DB’s.

 

[GleefulGary]

This is “scout talk.” Love didn’t play in the SEC. He forced balls into coverage and had trouble with pre-snap reads. This is why he had so many picks against mediocre DB’s.

Found the link!

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/love-led-nation-in-ints-heres-why-to-not-worry

Question for you: Why is scout talk fine when the scout is negative, but not when he's positive? Or do you only want views that align with your own?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This is the real life situation that we could face if Aaron goes down. Do you really trust a QB that had 17 INTs throwing into (for argument sakes) “the same windows” against lesser competitors? I’m just not sold on his decision making and think we could have done much better. Time will only tell.

I haven't read or heard anyone say that they think that Love is NFL ready right now. In other words, he wasn't drafted to start in 2020 or 2021. If Rodgers goes down in 2020, it wouldn't matter if it was Love or Boyle coming in, neither would probably fair well. Do you think #1 pick Joe Burrow could step right in for Rodgers and play well enough to win? I don't, not in 2020. If Love was NFL ready, I think we would have seen him go in the top 5 picks, he needs to work on some things. The beauty of getting him now, he has plenty of time to do that.

We already know what we have with Rodgers and we saw what happened when Hundley and Kizer were asked to step in, it wasn't pretty.

To say that "Love wasn't a good pick if he can't be good with a crappy supporting cast on offense", isn't a valid argument for not selecting him, especially at #26. How many QB's in college or the NFL are good when they are playing with crap around them? Maybe I am missing something?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Love was a bad pick in the sense that he doesn't improve this team for one or two years and most likely it will 3 or 4 before his impact is felt. He was a good pick if he develops and turns into an elite QB but you still have to account for any missed opportunities while he's developing behind Rodgers.

I generally think that draft picks for BAD teams should be about improving in the future while draft picks for good teams should be some balance of the future and helping win a Super Bowl now, while the team is close. Sacrificing the 'now' for the future would have to be the front office saying they're not as close as many think to being a truly elite team.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Love was a bad pick in the sense that he doesn't improve this team for one or two years and most likely it will 3 or 4 before his impact is felt. He was a good pick if he develops and turns into an elite QB but you still have to account for any missed opportunities while he's developing behind Rodgers.

I generally think that draft picks for BAD teams should be about improving in the future while draft picks for good teams should be some balance of the future and helping win a Super Bowl now, while the team is close. Sacrificing the 'now' for the future would have to be the front office saying they're not as close as many think to being a truly elite team.

I felt more this way when it came to Rashad Gary at #12 last year, than I do with Love at #26. In Gutes defense, at the time Gary was drafted, nobody was sure how the Smith Brothers would play and Gute probably felt Gary was a solid pick at a premium position, so I kind of got it, but I still didn't like it. Especially given the investment in the Smith Bros. and now that we have seen all 3 play, well, enough said, that is hind sight.

QB is a whole other animal IMO, especially when your starter is nearing the end of his career. Finding a premier QB is no easy task and for a team like the Packers that in the last ten years have had an average selection spot at 26th in every round, even more difficult. How many teams have we watched in the last "Favre/Rodgers Era" take swing after swing at the position and still come up empty?

So my question to those who think it was too early for Love, when do you think the Packers would have had a better, equal or worse chance at finding a starting QB? How much time does that afford them if the first try is a failure? What picks will be required in that draft to get their guy?

Oh, one other thing, that pick(s) that they would have had to spend on a QB in the coming years will now be free to be used to improve the team. So really, just view this as using a #30 and #136 on a QB in 2020 instead of in a later year. Next year we can spend our first rounder on another position to either improve the team in 2021 or beyond.

 

[Fat Dogs]

Found the link!

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/love-led-nation-in-ints-heres-why-to-not-worry

Question for you: Why is scout talk fine when the scout is negative, but not when he's positive? Or do you only want views that align with your own?

I don’t care if views align with mine. It’s great to have your own opinions. A statement like “Love is the ONLY Quarterback I’ve EVER scouted that going to be throwing into bigger windows than he did In the NFL” is rederick. Scouts and GMs fall in love with certain players and say things. Kiper and Maylock are great at this but it doesn’t make it a bottom line.

 

[Fat Dogs]

I haven't read or heard anyone say that they think that Love is NFL ready right now. In other words, he wasn't drafted to start in 2020 or 2021. If Rodgers goes down in 2020, it wouldn't matter if it was Love or Boyle coming in, neither would probably fair well. Do you think #1 pick Joe Burrow could step right in for Rodgers and play well enough to win? I don't, not in 2020. If Love was NFL ready, I think we would have seen him go in the top 5 picks, he needs to work on some things. The beauty of getting him now, he has plenty of time to do that.

We already know what we have with Rodgers and we saw what happened when Hundley and Kizer were asked to step in, it wasn't pretty.

To say that "Love wasn't a good pick if he can't be good with a crappy supporting cast on offense", isn't a valid argument for not selecting him, especially at #26. How many QB's in college or the NFL are good when they are playing with crap around them? Maybe I am missing something?

Yes, I am very confident to say that Burrow, Tua, or Herbert would give us more of a chance but that wouldn’t be fair. I’m happy that so many people believe in this kid. He’s a gamble, a project, a coin flip or however you want to look at it. I don’t like him for immediate or long term. There are 5 QB’s that go in the first every year and IMO we could have done better.

 

[GleefulGary]

Did you mean 'rhetoric'?

 

[Fat Dogs]

Did you mean 'rhetoric'?

No, Redrick like my Uncle Redrick that always says silly stuff.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes, I am very confident to say that Burrow, Tua, or Herbert would give us more of a chance but that wouldn’t be fair.

You are right, that wouldn't be fair, the Packers did not have the 1st, 5th or 6th pick in the draft. Moreover, if they had wanted to obtain one of those picks to select any of those 3 guys, it would have cost them a ton of draft capital this year and into the future.

The next QB taken after Love was Jalen Hurtz at 53. Again, he would have cost us our #30 pick or probably our 2nd and 3rd. I doubt many here would have been happy with that.

So you wait until 2021 and then what? Wait for the 4th QB to drop again or make your big move and shift most of your draft capital to a high pick?

Nobody has a crystal ball to know what the 2021, 22 or 23 draft will look like, nor where the Packers will be picking. However, when your average position has been the 26th spot over the last 10 drafts, odds are probably good that you are fighting with a lot of teams for that #1 or #2 QB prospect and having to invest a lot of draft capital to get him. The more I read and the more I hear Gute talk about the Love pick, the more I am convinced that the Packers think they got one of the top 2 QB's in this draft at a very reduced price. I guess we will see. The "silver lining", if Gute was wrong, it cost the Packers a lot less than a top 6 pick would have cost.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think some are preferring to look at his 2018 numbers due to the fact that he was surrounded by better players as well as a head coach that he had worked with from day 1.

You have to consider that Love threw 18 touchdowns with no interceptions against BYU, UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose State (teams that had a combined record of 15-34) in 2018. In his only game against a Power 5 conference opponent that season he didn't throw a TD but two INTs against a mediocre Michigan State (7-6) team.

I haven't read or heard anyone say that they think that Love is NFL ready right now. In other words, he wasn't drafted to start in 2020 or 2021.

Gutekunst might consider trading Rodgers next offseason with Love taking over. That shouldn't make anyone feel optimistic.

How many teams have we watched in the last "Favre/Rodgers Era" take swing after swing at the position and still come up empty?

So my question to those who think it was too early for Love, when do you think the Packers would have had a better, equal or worse chance at finding a starting QB? How much time does that afford them if the first try is a failure? What picks will be required in that draft to get their guy?

Oh, one other thing, that pick(s) that they would have had to spend on a QB in the coming years will now be free to be used to improve the team. So really, just view this as using a #30 and #136 on a QB in 2020 instead of in a later year. Next year we can spend our first rounder on another position to either improve the team in 2021 or beyond.

A lot of teams failing to draft an elite quarterback over the past 30 years while trying repeatedly actually works as evidence that it was a mistake to select Love in the first round. While it's possible the move works out as well as Thompson selecting Rodgers in 2005 the chances of that happening are extremely small.

Instead Gutekunst should have upgraded the talent level on the receiving corps to improve the odds of winning another Super Bowl with the future HOF quarterback already on the roster.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Gutekunst might consider trading Rodgers next offseason with Love taking over. That shouldn't make anyone feel optimistic.

Fans and the media can speculate stuff like this all they want to try and declare it a bad draft pick, but none of us can be sure we know what the actual plan is.

Gutekunst should have upgraded the talent level on the receiving corps to improve the odds of winning another Super Bowl with the future HOF quarterback already on the roster.

Something I have been saying he should have been doing the last 15 months. Sounds like in this draft, the board didn't fall in a way that allowed them to draft a WR that they valued at a particular pick. I'm not giving up the hope of still adding a vet WR via Trade or Free Agency. Gute may not be done yet filling his roster for 2020 or whenever the NFL plays next.

 

[TomBrownFan40]

He did have some nice throws downfield. His accuracy and touch on some of those shorter throws was awful. For a scout to ignore how he flat out missed receivers within 5 yards of the LOS or delivered ugly balls is questionable. He threw one screen too hot, then followed it up with a softball on a screen in which his receiver was immediately hit as soon as he caught it. Followed that up just a few plays later with a poorly placed ball on a screen which in which the receiver had to attempt a one handed catch. Great arm, but seems to lack feel as a passer

Sounds a lot like the young Brett Favre.

 

[Fat Dogs]

You have to consider that Love threw 18 touchdowns with no interceptions against BYU, UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose State (teams that had a combined record of 15-34) in 2018. In his only game against a Power 5 conference opponent that season he didn't throw a TD but two INTs against a mediocre Michigan State (7-6) team.



Gutekunst might consider trading Rodgers next offseason with Love taking over. That shouldn't make anyone feel optimistic.



A lot of teams failing to draft an elite quarterback over the past 30 years while trying repeatedly actually works as evidence that it was a mistake to select Love in the first round. While it's possible the move works out as well as Thompson selecting Rodgers in 2005 the chances of that happening are extremely small.

Instead Gutekunst should have upgraded the talent level on the receiving corps to improve the odds of winning another Super Bowl with the future HOF quarterback already on the roster.

I know no one really wanted a QB before the draft but Love seems to have grown on many. The mass has a way of influencing others. The more you read and hear the better an idea becomes. It happens to the best of us. I had no thought about an heir apparent for Rodgers but now I think its a smart idea ( obviously not love.) Now I’m wondering how many of you would trade Love for a Queen, Josh Jones, Mims, or pitman right now? I’m not saying to go back to the draft because losing that fourth would be a deal breaker. I’m just saying a strait up trade for one of those players. I really don’t think many on this board would.

 

[GleefulGary]

I know no one really wanted a QB before the draft but Love seems to have grown on many. The mass has a way of influencing others. The more you read and hear the better an idea becomes. It happens to the best of us. I had no thought about an heir apparent for Rodgers but now I think its a smart idea ( obviously not love.) Now I’m wondering how many of you would trade Love for a Queen, Josh Jones, Mims, or pitman right now? I’m not saying to go back to the draft because losing that fourth would be a deal breaker. I’m just saying a strait up trade for one of those players. I really don’t think many on this board would.

I don't like to deal with hypotheticals. The situation is what it is.

Prior to the draft, I didn't study up on Love much. Didn't want to take a QB. Their draft, personally, is not one I would have done. Of course, I know next to nothing. I didn't have coaches tape. I didn't have interviews. I didn't have medicals. I don't have an in-depth knowledge of what players fit the offense/defense or which ones don't.

At the end of the day, I'm going to trust the staff. There's just so much we don't know.

With that said, probably the only player from your list I'd consider swapping is Pittman. I really, really, liked him. With that said, he doesn't have a tremendous ceiling, and he's a lot of what we already have. The WR's that actually fit the best were Reagor and Aiyuk, and they were gone. Some people probably would have put Justin Jefferson in there too, and he also was gone. The offense needed a WR, but specifically a RAC WR. They were pretty much all gone. It is what it is.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

You have to consider that Love threw 18 touchdowns with no interceptions against BYU, UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose State (teams that had a combined record of 15-34) in 2018. In his only game against a Power 5 conference opponent that season he didn't throw a TD but two INTs against a mediocre Michigan State (7-6) team.



Gutekunst might consider trading Rodgers next offseason with Love taking over. That shouldn't make anyone feel optimistic.



A lot of teams failing to draft an elite quarterback over the past 30 years while trying repeatedly actually works as evidence that it was a mistake to select Love in the first round. While it's possible the move works out as well as Thompson selecting Rodgers in 2005 the chances of that happening are extremely small.

Instead Gutekunst should have upgraded the talent level on the receiving corps to improve the odds of winning another Super Bowl with the future HOF quarterback already on the roster.

The FO hasn't done anything to inspire confidence that they are going to put talent around any QB. Teams are loading up on talent now for their QBs, we are far behind the game in that regard.

 

[GleefulGary]

The FO hasn't done anything to inspire confidence that they are going to put talent around any QB. Teams are loading up on talent now for their QBs, we are far behind the game in that regard.

Then either LaFleur is one of the best coaches in the league, or the FO is better than you think. They can't both suck!

 

[Patriotplayer90]

Then either LaFleur is one of the best coaches in the league, or the FO is better than you think. They can't both suck!

I think it's universally agreed that the offense lacked talent last year.

 

[GleefulGary]

I think it's universally agreed that the offense lacked talent last year.

So then LaFleur is one of the best coaches in the league? Great to hear! The offense lacked talent, yet was in the top half of the league in scoring. Impressive!

 

[Dantés]

Last year, the packers were lacking in WR talent beyond Adams and in TE talent generally.

But they did have a great WR1, RB1, and offensive line.

So to say that they lacked talent is incorrect. They were working with more than some and less than others.

What's going to help them more than anything personnel-related in 2020 is having a year of experience within the offense. That doesn't mean personnel isn't important, but growing in the system will help most.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think it's universally agreed that the offense lacked talent last year.

I would say it lacked talent at the #2 and #3 WR and at the TE position. However, had the Packers had a solid #2 or a solid TE, I think that lessens the blow of the other 2 being weak.

Otherwise, the OL has been as good as one can expect, the addition of Jenkins at LG was huge and Gute added 3 more Offensive lineman and a TE to the mix.

I still find it a head scratcher as to what is going on with the WR position. I won't rehash all that, but I am still hopeful for another vet to be brought in or the development of the current group takes a bigger leap than I expect.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

I would say it lacked talent at the #2 and #3 WR and at the TE position. However, had the Packers had a solid #2 or a solid TE, I think that lessens the blow of the other 2 being weak.

Otherwise, the OL has been as good as one can expect, the addition of Jenkins at LG was huge and Gute added 3 more Offensive lineman and a TE to the mix.

I still find it a head scratcher as to what is going on with the WR position. I won't rehash all that, but I am still hopeful for another vet to be brought in or the development of the current group takes a bigger leap than I expect.

Right. It's probably why people were shocked that we didn't take a WR, because the foundation was set.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Right. It's probably why people were shocked that we didn't take a WR, because the foundation was set.

There are still ways to correct that, if it needs correcting. For all I know Gute and MLF think the guys from last year, with some development and the addition of Begelton and Funchess is all that is needed. Just in case it isn't, some of us have been talking about potential trade targets and you always have the cut casualties as well. Believe it or not, I actually like the group that the Packers have now over the group that they had a year ago, but I still think it has a lot of room for improvement.