The Point of the Draft Picks

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah, I get people being disappointed that the Packers didn't do what they thought they should have, but us fans and probably in many cases the media, really do not have all of the facts that go into the decisions. Not saying that the Packers run the tightest ship when it comes to player character, but I am pretty sure its a strong check mark, as I am sure are some other things we don't know about.

I also can't help to think that Gute and Co. have a much better forward vision of their needs for the coming season and beyond and how current players may or may not fit into those plans. Many thought that GMO and MVS would be decent #2 and #3 WR's last year, appeared like Gute did too. Turns out his vision wasn't correct, but his premise for making it was probably sound.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I felt more this way when it came to Rashad Gary at #12 last year, than I do with Love at #26. In Gutes defense, at the time Gary was drafted, nobody was sure how the Smith Brothers would play and Gute probably felt Gary was a solid pick at a premium position, so I kind of got it, but I still didn't like it. Especially given the investment in the Smith Bros. and now that we have seen all 3 play, well, enough said, that is hind sight.

QB is a whole other animal IMO, especially when your starter is nearing the end of his career. Finding a premier QB is no easy task and for a team like the Packers that in the last ten years have had an average selection spot at 26th in every round, even more difficult. How many teams have we watched in the last "Favre/Rodgers Era" take swing after swing at the position and still come up empty?

So my question to those who think it was too early for Love, when do you think the Packers would have had a better, equal or worse chance at finding a starting QB? How much time does that afford them if the first try is a failure? What picks will be required in that draft to get their guy?

Oh, one other thing, that pick(s) that they would have had to spend on a QB in the coming years will now be free to be used to improve the team. So really, just view this as using a #30 and #136 on a QB in 2020 instead of in a later year. Next year we can spend our first rounder on another position to either improve the team in 2021 or beyond.

I mean, the Packers apparently just drafted their QB of the future at 26. I doubt they're going to be picking much lower than that over the next three seasons, so really, any other year probably would have allowed a similar opportunity, no?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I mean, the Packers apparently just drafted their QB of the future at 26. I doubt they're going to be picking much lower than that over the next three seasons, so really, any other year probably would have allowed a similar opportunity, no?

Guess it all depends on the value that you put on Love. If your value is right around "Worth picking #26 or later", than you have your answer. If you are Gute and the Packers, you probably felt the value was higher, thus making it ok to jump in at a time that many of us feel was a year or 2 early. Do the Packers think it was too early?

Prior to this draft, in the last 10 drafts, 30 QB's were selected in the first round. You decide which team did it right and which didn't. So I ask again, when should the Packers start looking for their next staring QB?

1. Paxton Lynch #26
2. Josh Rosen #10
3. Johnny Manziel #22
4. Blaine Gabbert #10
5. Christian Ponder #12
6. Tim Tebow #25
7. EJ Manuel #16
8. Josh Allen #7
9. Jake Locker #8
10. Brandon Weeden #22
11. Lamar Jackson #32
12. Josh Freeman #17
13. Sam Darnold #3
14. Mark Sanchez #5
15. Blake Bortles #3
    
16. Teddy Bridgewater #32
    
17. Robert Griffin III #2
    
18. Sam Bradford #1
19. Mitchell Trubisky #2
    
20. Ryan Tannehill #8
21. Marcus Mariota #2
22. Jameis Winston #1
23. Carson Wentz #2
24. Baker Mayfield #1
25. Matthew Stafford #1
26. Andrew Luck #1
27. Jared Goff #1
28. DeShaun Watson #12
29. Patrick Mahomes #10
30. Cam Newton #1

 

[OldSchool101]

Sure I get it. Gluten had a lot of opportunities to beef up the WR group, and he chose a different path. I think most of us would agree that “win now” is the prevailing sentiment, rather than rebuilding or planning for #12’s imminent demise. Jordan Love is a long-term (2 to 3 year) calculated risk. I have no idea if that was the right choice or the right way to use the #30 pick. But it’s done, and we all move on.

Just based on his draft, and even though there is still time for trades and UDFAs to emerge from nowhere, it’s relatively safe to assume that Gluten and MLF are content with their WR talent, and they have said so. And based on the scheme MLF uses (heavy run, RPO) that might be right.
And let’s face it, if this nasty virus is still in the air come July/August, we will be joining the NBA and MLB and all other sports and put the season on hold, or cancel it outright.
Geez, then what will we have to chat about?!?

Maybe doing a raffle for our 2021 draft selections? Not that I want that. But, Wouldn’t that be something if that happened and GB got lucky and was picking a top 10 selection each round plus all the comp picks?
God please help us if Gute ignored WR once again!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How somebody who has admitted he doesn't watch the draft prospects somehow knows so much about all the players now.

Don't you agree that the draft class at wide receiver was extremely talented and deep this year???

I said less than some and more than others. Deficient at TE and the WR's beyond Adams were not inspiring. But Adams, Jones, and the offensive line were all plus pieces within the offense. If you're trying to say that the Packers were one of the least talented offenses in the NFC, then I would challenge you to back that up, because it's asinine.

Once again, the Packers were one of only two teams in the entire league that didn't feature at least two players with a minimum of 500 receiving yards. Is that enough to back up that they lacked talent at pass catcher???

You say that it would have been better to reach for a WR rather than take Love, but you and everyone else will change your tune if Love hits.

I would love to be wrong about him but that's a huge if we're talking about here.

Yes its possible that the FO determined that the talent at our positions of our first and second round picks was not sufficient to justify the taking one of the available receivers.

It's obvious the Packers front office agreed that there wasn't any receiver worth of being taken with the team's second or third round pick. Unfortunately I believe that reaching for a running back and tight end at those spots was the wrong decision though.

Just remember that a couple years ago the all knowing media thought EQSB was a 2nd round talent, and we got him in the 6th!

So clearly there's talent on the roster.

There were other reason EQ dropped to thr sixth round. There's no doubt he has talent but not sure he will be able to put it all together.

With that in mind, people here talk a lot about BPA, why is it so hard to understand that in both of those rounds, the Packers saw better options than a WR on their board?

It's not hard to understand the Packers front office felt more comfortable abput not selecting a wide receiver in the second or third round. I don't have to agree with it though.

Yes, there were good WRs in this draft but we got skunked in this draft because of our positioning. Every time our pick came up there wasn't a WR worth taking after the first without major reaching.

Instead the Packers decided it was a good idea to reach for Dillon and Deguara, who most likely will be backups this season.

If you are Gute and the Packers, you probably felt the value was higher, thus making it ok to jump in at a time that many of us feel was a year or 2 early. Do the Packers think it was too early?

It's highly probable that the Packers drafted Rodgers' successor two years early and I'm not even evaluating Love's talent here to come up with this conclusion.

With the way the CBA is currently structured teams want to take advantage of having a quarterback starting who is still on his rookie deal.

With Gutekunst restructuring Rodgers' deal at the end of last season, adding even more dead money counting against the team's cap in future years, the 2023 season is the first one the team could actually benefit from not having their quarterbacks combine for a cap hit of at least $20 million. Unfortunately that will already be Love's final year on his rookie deal.

 

[Dantés]

Once again, the Packers were one of only two teams in the entire league that didn't feature at least two players with a minimum of 500 receiving yards. Is that enough to back up that they lacked talent at pass catcher???

Me: They lacked talent at TE and WR behind Adams, but there was still talent on the offense.

Captain: They weren't talented at WR!

Me: Yeah... they lacked talent at TE and WR behind Adams, but there was still talent on the offense.

Captain: They weren't talented at WR!

 

[Dantés]

I would love to be wrong about him but that's a huge if we're talking about here.

It's obvious the Packers front office agreed that there wasn't any receiver worth of being taken with the team's second or third round pick. Unfortunately I believe that reaching for a running back and tight end at those spots was the wrong decision though.

*You* would love to be wrong about Love? What exactly do you know about Love? You literally told all of us that you wouldn't be spending your time studying the draft class this year and you'd just see who the Packers selected. Now that they've made the picks, you have a determination?

"Reaching" implies that the Packers passed over more highly rated players to take the guys they took. Knowing that they did so requires knowledge of their board and how their evaluations stacked up. The way the draft class broke down across the board at RB and TE would suggest that the media got those positions wrong compared to how the NFL felt about them.

Fans can like or dislike picks, but they have no basis for calling any of them reaches or steals. To do so holds a team against the standard of whatever media rankings are available to the public, which makes no sense at all.

 

[GleefulGary]

Me: They lacked talent at TE and WR behind Adams, but there was still talent on the offense.

Captain: They weren't talented at WR!

Me: Yeah... they lacked talent at TE and WR behind Adams, but there was still talent on the offense.

Captain: They weren't talented at WR!

You have to throw a hissy fit while saying they lacked WR talent. Try to complain a little more.

This is the way.

 

[Pugger]

Instead the Packers decided it was a good idea to reach for Dillon and Deguara, who most likely will be backups this season.

Do you think a rookie WR would have started instead of Fuchness? RBs like Dillon will play a lot giving Jones a breather and giving us a change of pace. Gute helped Rodgers but not with a WR. He decided to improve our running attack and that can help a vet QB like Rodgers who isn't as nimble as he once was and will keep defenses honest.

 

[tynimiller]

Do you think a rookie WR would have started instead of Fuchness? RBs like Dillon will play a lot giving Jones a breather and giving us a change of pace. Gute helped Rodgers but not with a WR. He decided to improve our running attack and that can help a vet QB like Rodgers who isn't as nimble as he once was and will keep defenses honest.

While I've been on a string of disagreements with Capt, there were without a doubt WRs in this draft that would at WORST be our WR3 IMO. Many would have pushed Lazard and Funchess for second most snaps...sadly though all were arguably gone by our second pick.

I do agree the offense got bolstered for sure with Dillon, Deguara and most like 1 of the 3 if not more of the OL will strenghten our front as well depth wise now and could unfold into something more in the future.

 

[Dantés]

You have to throw a hissy fit while saying they lacked WR talent. Try to complain a little more.

This is the way.

While also ignoring what actually happened in the draft and just saying "I REFUSE to believe he couldn't get whoever I/PFF wanted him to get."

 

[tynimiller]

While also ignoring what actually happened in the draft and just saying "I REFUSE to believe he couldn't get whoever I/PFF wanted him to get."

Stop you two...PFF says you both have terrible grades in "scouting abilities"

 

[GleefulGary]

Stop you two...PFF says you both have terrible grades in "scouting abilities"

Might be the only time they're right.

 

[Mondio]

^^^ these 2 guys win

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Guess it all depends on the value that you put on Love. If your value is right around "Worth picking #26 or later", than you have your answer. If you are Gute and the Packers, you probably felt the value was higher, thus making it ok to jump in at a time that many of us feel was a year or 2 early. Do the Packers think it was too early?

Prior to this draft, in the last 10 drafts, 30 QB's were selected in the first round. You decide which team did it right and which didn't. So I ask again, when should the Packers start looking for their next staring QB?

1. Paxton Lynch #26
2. Josh Rosen #10
3. Johnny Manziel #22
4. Blaine Gabbert #10
5. Christian Ponder #12
6. Tim Tebow #25
7. EJ Manuel #16
8. Josh Allen #7
9. Jake Locker #8
10. Brandon Weeden #22
11. Lamar Jackson #32
12. Josh Freeman #17
13. Sam Darnold #3
14. Mark Sanchez #5
15. Blake Bortles #3
    
16. Teddy Bridgewater #32
    
17. Robert Griffin III #2
    
18. Sam Bradford #1
19. Mitchell Trubisky #2
    
20. Ryan Tannehill #8
21. Marcus Mariota #2
22. Jameis Winston #1
23. Carson Wentz #2
24. Baker Mayfield #1
25. Matthew Stafford #1
26. Andrew Luck #1
27. Jared Goff #1
28. DeShaun Watson #12
29. Patrick Mahomes #10
30. Cam Newton #1

I'm pretty adamantly in the camp of "they drafted a QB about 2 years too soon". You look at that list you presented and, to be honest, if you're drafting a project 3+ years from starting, just draft a high potential guy in the 3rd every year until then and see if you get lucky. I look at that list of 30 QBs and I see 8 that I would call good or better draft picks (Tannehill is one of those 8, but for the Titans, not the team that drafted him). That ratio isn't exactly screaming to me that you should start to give up on the final 3 years of your current, very good QB.

 

[GleefulGary]

Fwiw El Capitan, Jeremiah had Dillon and Deguara as 4th round picks. Zierline had Dillon as a 3-4th and Deguara as a 6th. Deguara is very much a "fit" pick. For other teams, he definitely wouldn't be a day 2 pick. For GB, he was. That has to be taken into consideration.

Regardless, even if it was a reach, it was by a round or two. I just don't care. Fwiw, both had Love as a 1st round pick, and Jeremiah had Love as his 23rd best player.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That ratio isn't exactly screaming to me that you should start to give up on the final 3 years of your current, very good QB.

Who is giving up on Rodgers for the next 2 or 3 years? The Packers made a hefty commitment to him via a contract. This is a business and the Packers are taking their first swing at finding his eventual replacement. If Love works out, great, if he doesn't, they take another swing in a few years. Too many people are making this about Aaron Rodgers. I love #12, but if #10 beats him out, that would be awesome!

What I find ironic are people saying Love isn't any good and in the same breath say "its too early to replace Rodgers". So I have to ask 2 questions. First, how do you know Love isn't any good? Second, if you are right and he isn't any good, how will he replace Rodgers?

People need to look at the history of the NFL draft and realize that no matter who the Packers selected at #30 or #26, there are no guarantees, whether its a QB or a DB you are drafting.

 

[easyk83]

I think this statement best encapsulates why so many fans each year don't like what their team does.....it didn't jive with what they thought the team should do.

Not picking on @tynimiller...since we all are guilty of it at various levels.

While I love playing the "Draft Game", I will never fool myself into thinking I know more than the Packer Scouts, coaches or GM.

Personally I get irritated at times, but with any particular draft I get over it pretty quickly because frankly we never know how these picks will turn out. I've learned to accept that this process is a total crap shoot and typically there isn't one way to solve a team's weakness. Don't like your receivers or the guys available that much, maybe grab the type of running back who could force defenses to respect the run to slow down the rush and create more space for the receivers you have. Wish your LBs covered better, maybe you can find or develop a true CF type to play single high safety so you can use your SS more in the middle of the field more aggressively. Want a better pass rush, if good edge guys arent available find pass rushing interior lineman or maybe put more talent into the backside of your defense or get the kind of run defenders who can allow you to play your edge rushers out wide more often. Dont like your run defense, better CBs might let you 8 in the box more frequently.

On the field, play isnt just about the players you have but also how they're employed. OTs look better when the edge guys have to play 5 tech, just like the edge guys play better when they can get out to 7 and the wide 9 looks. Receivers look better when they have time to run their routes and the LBs are forced to stay closer to the line. LBs look better when they have an Ed Reed/Nick Collins type playing center field and the SS is up in the box with them so on and so forth.

 

[easyk83]

Who is giving up on Rodgers for the next 2 or 3 years? The Packers made a hefty commitment to him via a contract. This is a business and the Packers are taking their first swing at finding his eventual replacement. If Love works out, great, if he doesn't, they take another swing in a few years. Too many people are making this about Aaron Rodgers. I love #12, but if #10 beats him out, that would be awesome!

What I find ironic are people saying Love isn't any good and in the same breath say "its too early to replace Rodgers". So I have to ask 2 questions. First, how do you know Love isn't any good? Second, if you are right and he isn't any good, how will he replace Rodgers?

People need to look at the history of the NFL draft and realize that no matter who the Packers selected at #30 or #26, there are no guarantees, whether its a QB or a DB you are drafting.

Odds are Love will not develop but that also creates more urgency to look into Rodgers successor, grabbing him now will give the team a chance to evaluate his development over the next couple of years and figure out what they have before they ever have to rely on him. With Rodgers it wasnt until his third season that he really started to look like he could be the QB of the future and even then he seemed to have a problem with injuries which then resulted in the Brian Brohm insurance pick, a waste of a good pick but at the time it made sense.

Transitioning into more of a ground and pound offense will likely A) extend Rodgers career by keeping him upright, and B) make it easier on whoever does have to replace him. So if Love doesnt pan out we've successfully move away from the Rodgers as a pinata offense that we've had in the past leaving our HoF in better health moving forward giving us a wider window to not only win now but also to win with him 4-5 years from now if we need to.

 

[easyk83]

I do think that we have plenty of young talent that should get better and other that could turn into found money and improve what we have as a football team. Players who could be on the up and up:


MVS- Yeah he took a step back but that happens with skill players who experience initial success, we'll see this coming season if it happens
Savage-(He looked good at times as a rook, he gets more experience and he could be special)
King and Alexander-(both up and down, Alexander is coming into the he gets it now phase of his career and King just came off his first full season, if healthy both should improve the backend of the defense just by being a year older.
Lazard- Came off his first season of significant playing time, I really like what he brings to the offense with his size physicality hands and catch radius.
Jenkins- Just a good smart young interior OL who should only get better

Found money

ESQ
M. Adams
Sternberger

Draft pick I'm most excited about
Dillon- I think he creates some very tangible benefits for the offense beyond his likely production. A 250 pound 4.5 running 132 broad jump jumping one cut and up type could be a nightmare out of the spread offense.

Positions of apparent weakness could turn into strength and apparent strongpoints can just as easily turn into a disaster once the games start.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Me: They lacked talent at TE and WR behind Adams, but there was still talent on the offense.

Captain: They weren't talented at WR!

Me: Yeah... they lacked talent at TE and WR behind Adams, but there was still talent on the offense.

Captain: They weren't talented at WR!

You said the Packers had more talent at pass catchers than other teams. If you take Adams out of the equation I disagree with that take.

*You* would love to be wrong about Love? What exactly do you know about Love? You literally told all of us that you wouldn't be spending your time studying the draft class this year and you'd just see who the Packers selected. Now that they've made the picks, you have a determination?

I mentioned that I won't put any effort into evaluating prospects the Packers don't end up selecting in this year's draft unlike you and the other self proclaimed draft gurus on the forum.

I have done my homework on the players Gutekunst actually picked last week though.

"Reaching" implies that the Packers passed over more highly rated players to take the guys they took. Knowing that they did so requires knowledge of their board and how their evaluations stacked up. The way the draft class broke down across the board at RB and TE would suggest that the media got those positions wrong compared to how the NFL felt about them.

Fans can like or dislike picks, but they have no basis for calling any of them reaches or steals. To do so holds a team against the standard of whatever media rankings are available to the public, which makes no sense at all.

I find it hilarious every time a regular poster suggests that it doesn't make any sense to discuss about something related to the team because we don't have knowledge about front office evaluations.

If that's true what's the point of this forum???

Do you think a rookie WR would have started instead of Fuchness?

I'm convinced that a rookie wide receiver picked early in this year's draft would have received significant playing time.

While also ignoring what actually happened in the draft and just saying "I REFUSE to believe he couldn't get whoever I/PFF wanted him to get."

As you correctly mentioned above I didn't have any favorite prospects entering the draft I wanted the Packers to select, therefore that quote doesn't make any sense.

I definitely don't like that Gutekunst spent all of the team's picks in the first four rounds on prospects that will be backups next season though.

Fwiw, both had Love as a 1st round pick, and Jeremiah had Love as his 23rd best player.

The Packers still shouldn't have selected Love with Rodgers being under contract for another four years though.

 

[Dantés]

You said the Packers had more talent at pass catchers than other teams. If you take Adams out of the equation I disagree with that take.

I mentioned that I won't put any effort into evaluating prospects the Packers don't end up selecting in this year's draft unlike you and the other self proclaimed draft gurus on the forum.

I have done my homework on the players Gutekunst actually picked last week though.

I find it hilarious every time a regular poster suggests that it doesn't make any sense to discuss about something related to the team because we don't have knowledge about front office evaluations.

If that's true what's the point of this forum???

Nope. I said that the offense had more talent than some teams and less than others. Hence why I was talking about WR, TE, RB, and OL.

What's ironic about you calling me a "self proclaimed draft guru" is that I'm not the one claiming to know that this was a terrible draft. I watched maybe 30 guys before the draft happened and I had some takes on them and what I thought the team could do in general. The draft didn't meet what my expectations.

My basic take on this class has been that I didn't see it coming, I think I know why they made the choices they made, I wish we had landed a WR, and I am going to let these guys play before I decide if they're good or bad. The arrogant takes of a "self proclaimed guru" are the ones like yours that have already decided that this was a bad haul full of "reaches." You're the one acting as though you have it all figured out.

I never said it doesn't make sense to discuss prospects or call them good or bad picks. I said that calling picks "reaches" is stupid because it judges the FO decisions, that they made according to their own evals, against the evals of a public outlet like PFF. Clearly no one is trying to shut down fan discussion around the prospects.

 

[RRyder]

You said the Packers had more talent at pass catchers than other teams. If you take Adams out of the equation I disagree with that take.



I mentioned that I won't put any effort into evaluating prospects the Packers don't end up selecting in this year's draft unlike you and the other self proclaimed draft gurus on the forum.

I have done my homework on the players Gutekunst actually picked last week though.



I find it hilarious every time a regular poster suggests that it doesn't make any sense to discuss about something related to the team because we don't have knowledge about front office evaluations.

If that's true what's the point of this forum???



I'm convinced that a rookie wide receiver picked early in this year's draft would have received significant playing time.



As you correctly mentioned above I didn't have any favorite prospects entering the draft I wanted the Packers to select, therefore that quote doesn't make any sense.

I definitely don't like that Gutekunst spent all of the team's picks in the first four rounds on prospects that will be backups next season though.



The Packers still shouldn't have selected Love with Rodgers being under contract for another four years though.

Ya know I made this very same point when I was on an island on this board hating the Gary pick last year and now find it extremely amusing that I've seen multiple people that said they thought it was off base to critique a draft early now use it as a defense

But in any case Dante has has done neither. He's played the middle ground on this about as well as you can and has simply been offering potential explanations for moves that people didn't like but those explanations seem to be taken by people that didn't like them as endorsements

 

[GleefulGary]

There was no island on hating the Gary pick...

 

[easyk83]

Ya know I made this very same point when I was on an island on this board hating the Gary pick last year and now find it extremely amusing that I've seen multiple people that said they thought it was off base to critique a draft early now use it as a defense

But in any case Dante has has done neither. He's played the middle ground on this about as well as you can and has simply been offering potential explanations for moves that people didn't like but those explanations seem to be taken by people that didn't like them as endorsements

Can you clarify the Gary hating bit? Are you suggesting that you were almost alone in hating the Gary pick or that it seemed as if everyone but you hated the Gary pick?