I’m not sure who’s guessing Seattle had a 12.5% chance to score? Marshawn’s weight to Power alone creates a momentum to Win against a LB or DB if he makes the 1.5-2 yardline. Its a game of 6 on 6 on from the Center (5 D players are eliminated from this play that are to the right of the Center. A very quick pitch left to Marshawn, which Russel is good at like Rodgers.. and let him find the left Pylon (gives him a chance to use the Sideline to get a free Timeout if he doesn’t find a cut lane) imo? Worst case he’s getting caught around the 2 and that’s probable if someone makes a huge play and trips Marshawn. If not I think he scores on the first try.
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Also Seattle had 3 tries with a 1/2 minute and a Timeout, plus the Sideline is a free Clock stop. They ain’t kicking a FG here. It’s 4-Down and it’s 2nd Down so that analyst expert you are following doesn’t even know the Down?
Again, historically, Lynch hasn’t been a 1 yard successful back. For as big as he is/was, he made his hay getting to the second level and punishing LBs and safeties, not pushing piles. Think similarly to Jones vs Dillon. Dillon is bigger, it Jones was better at the tough single yard because (presumably ) he could get small and slip through cracks.
As far as the particular situation, throwing was the safest choice that gave Seattle the most options. I believe there was a stat that throwing from the 1 that year had something absurd 30 or 40 TDs and zero picks until that fateful play.
And by throwing here, they keep the TO for the last two downs, which lets them at least threaten run or pass. If they run and don’t make it, they burn the TO and they “have” to throw the last 2 downs.
Where Seattle goofed was this particular play call. The Pats obviously knew the play and had practiced against, recognized it and adjust on the fly to shut down the rub. And BB had the perfect personnel package to stop this play 3CB AND and the run undesirable with a goal line front. Carol got cute by not taking an early timeout and presumed BB would panic and take the TO. When that didn’t happen, he played himself.
And then lost snap. Wilson threw a terrible ball and was too locked in to his read. Had he realized the rub got shutdown with excellent defense, he throws it out of the end zone and they love to play the next down.