The Aaron Rodgers performance thread

[XPack]

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...w-lions-week-17-offensive-scheme-matt-lafleur

Good article.

Among quarterbacks with at least 30 deep attempts, Rodgers threw 20 or more yards down the field the third-most often, at 16.3% of his throws in 2019, behind only Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford. His adjusted completion percentage, accounting for drops, fell in under 38% on those deep shots, 23rd out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks. On the other hand, his passer rating on those throws came in at a robust 111.2, ahead of players like Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees, and Deshaun Watson. Rodgers produced with a high degree of variance, but he produced.

 

[Do7]

You have been fair an open minded in this thread. Sorry to frustrated you. We will disagree on the quality of our WRs. I'm not saying they are great, but their talent Is not being fully tapped. People look back fondly on players like Cobb and don't recall he had his Share of drops too. All WRs drop passes. All QBs miss throws.

But how do you interpret this post?

Reads to me like AR has been great in the past therefore he can't be held responsible for issues this season. Rodgers gets the credit for great seasons but when he team struggles it therefore must be the WRs.

How did you draw that conclusion that Rodgers can't be held responsible for some of the issues? I mean is what he said wrong? Rodgers has carried the load over the years, but that doesn't negate that he did have substantial weapons that helped get him there. I don't think anyone is saying Rodgers isn't without criticism especially for misplaced throws, but considering the fact this team is 13-3 and sitting at a bye with a rookie head coach, and Rodgers learning a new system with limited talent at the receiver position, these are not bd problems to have would it not?

 

[PackAttack12]

You have been fair an open minded in this thread. Sorry to frustrated you. We will disagree on the quality of our WRs. I'm not saying they are great, but their talent Is not being fully tapped. People look back fondly on players like Cobb and don't recall he had his Share of drops too. All WRs drop passes. All QBs miss throws.

But how do you interpret this post?

Reads to me like AR has been great in the past therefore he can't be held responsible for issues this season. Rodgers gets the credit for great seasons but when he team struggles it therefore must be the WRs.

Well for starters, that’s one poster. Secondly, I think what that poster is saying is that Rodgers has carried many teams in the past (which he has) but now that the team has a defense that’s facilitated to the 13 win season, Rodgers is struggling.

I think his point actually supports your premise.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Aaron's accuracy just isn't godly in general as it used to be

The pass to Davante in the endzone was BEHIND Davante too as an example

How much less accurate, exactly?

Here's one way to look at that. 62.0% completion percentage in 2019, 64.6% for his carreer. The difference is 2.6 throws out of 100, or about 1 out of every 38 throws, or a little less than one fewer completions per game.

Even if you take out the last 3 seasons, the career average is only 65.1%, a negligle difference.

Is he a little off? Yeah. But mostly it's a matter of perception and emphasis. Rodgers has never posted high completion percentages. He's never led the league in that stat, not even with his high water mark of 68.3% in 2011. When the team was winning consistently, the emphasis was on the hits and not the misses. Now it's become the other way around.

There are great balls being thrown in these games and they get a ho hum. There were past seasons when he was hailed as a god and nobody cared to notice he had zero touch on screens. I guess it was because of the expectation the next great throw was just around the corner. Now losing and his more curmudgenly attitude has flipped the script in some minds.

I wonder sometimes if it's still the Favre dead-ender schadenfreude all these years later. Or is it just the social media age where everybody wants to be the guy who predicts the next rise or fall even though nobody tracks anybody's predictions.

Last year we were treated to some videos in these pages where some internet knucklehead was spotlighting a 20 yard rocket ball into a window at the back of the end zone that was off target. The guy had the temerity to say in past seasons Rodgers would have made that throw 100% of the time. That's simply ludicrous. But that's the kind perspective we're dealing with.

The then vs. now gap is greatly exagerated.

 

[XPack]

But how do you interpret this post?

Reads to me like AR has been great in the past therefore he can't be held responsible for issues this season. Rodgers gets the credit for great seasons but when he team struggles it therefore must be the WRs.

I think his point was to cut AR some slack, not to hold him not responsible. Lots of people's opinion has been skewed by the big contract. He's still a top QB and every player has an off time. He'll bounce back sooner than later. All this talk of benching him, trading him and drafting replacement is still over the top and unwarranted.

 

[rmontro]

He's still a top QB and every player has an off time. He'll bounce back sooner than later.

Something I haven't seen mentioned is that a lot of players have an off year after singing a big contract. I'm not going to speculate on the psychology involved in it, but maybe the "old" Aaron will be back next year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

For a little perspective, these are both age 36 seasons for Rodgers and Brady:

Rodgers:

63.4% completions
24 to 3 TD/INT
3,679 yards
7.2 yards/attempt
97.9 passer rating
52.2 QBR

Brady:

60.5% completions
25 to 11 TD/INT
4,343 yards
6.9/attempt
87.3 rating
63.1 QBR

Brady had a difficult year as well. Can't remember everything that happened that season, but he only had Gronk for 7 games and did a lot of force feeding to Julian Edelman (which is what some are accusing Rodgers of doing with Davante). There's a similarity in the talent that each had to work with. Brady had Edelman and Amendola before they were Edelman and Amendola.

So I guess the moral of the story is that, a substandard season doesn't automatically equal diminishing skills or a downward spiral by any stretch.

Rodgers will continue to look better and more comfortable in this system, and his production will increase as well.

Or look at Brady this season with Gronk gone and an uninspiring collection of weapons. And that's with the backing of a top drawer defense. Did something happen to Brady between February and September? Yeah, something happened. The surrounding talent level was cut too close to the bone.

How about Rodgers in 2015 before his decline was shouted from the rooftops? His numbers were worse than this year, including a completion percentage of 60.7%. Wha' happended? Nelson missing the entire season happened: James Jones, Randall Cobb, Richard Rodgers and the rookie Adams were the top targets.

Force feeding Adams, a player head and shoulders above his compadres? Send a memo to Drew Brees, and you might as well cc Teddy Bridgewater, and tell these guys they should not have thrown Michael Thomas 185 balls this year, nearly triple the next guy on the list.

Wake up to the new year, pour a cup of coffee, and get a whiff of the aroma.

 

[rmontro]

Or look at Brady this season with Gronk gone and an uninspiring collection of weapons. And that's with the backing of top drawer defense. Did something happen to Brady between February and September? Yeah, something happened. The surrounding talent level was cut too close to the bone.

That's true, although the story the media wants to pedal is that Brady got too old. I almost wonder if Belichick didn't try to sabotage Brady by not giving him any weapons, but that's probably fantasy. He did sign Antonio Brown, until Kraft made him get rid of him.

About forcing the ball to Adams, I've always said Favre got better once Sterling Sharpe had to retire, because he had to start spreading the ball around. There's a similar situation this year when Adams was out, the offense picked up some spark. I'm glad he's back though.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

First, sure. But exclusively? No. And he has large stretches where he does just that.

Rodgers targeted Adams on 31.8% of his throws since the receiver returned from injury in week 9. Hardly exclusively.

And the Detroit defense...who was playing for them?

Points for.Tied for 2 most given up? Yards 4th most? why didn't you include Detroit stats?

Again..it's okay rodgers is having issues. I want him as the qb

And it's okay to say he needs to play better.

My God some of you people act like the Brett lovers in 2006

Let me be abundantly clear about it, because otherwise Amish and you don't get it.

Rodgers definitely needs to play better. His performance against the Lions wasn't anywhere close up to his standards.

I have no idea how you come up with the suggestion that I didn't include the game in any of the stats I posted though.

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I call bs with a capital B

It wasn't just a tad off...it was a full body off

Rodgers needed to throw that better..

It's a bs excuse to say..wr sucks..

This is a wide open guy he has practiced with for 2 years?

Rodgers needs to throw it better..no excuse

He was so oooo wide open.
Jezzus

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Did Rodgers throw a good ball on the play??? Hell, no.

Would it have been possible for MVS to catch it nevertheless??? Absolutely.

 

[longtimefan]

This is a fair criticism. To say that he isn’t performing to the level he used to is accurate. But it’s also accurate to say that what he has to work with is considerably less than what he has ever had to work with as it relates to the passing game.
.

Why add in wr is an issue? Just say rodgers has been inaccurate...if he is inaccurate, then how can it be the wr fault?

This is my issue..it seems majority say..yeah he is missing throws..BUT....wr suck.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This is my issue..it seems majority say..yeah he is missing throws..BUT....wr suck.

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[Deleted member 6794]

Why add in wr is an issue? Just say rodgers has been inaccurate...if he is inaccurate, then how can it be the wr fault?

This is my issue..it seems majority say..yeah he is missing throws..BUT....wr suck.

You might want to consider that it's probable both Rodgers and the receivers are part of the problem.

 

[gopkrs]

Just wanted to say that I don't think our receivers are bad. All of them can catch. And Lazard looks very good. We rely too much on Graham and we throw the deep ball too often. I always thought we had guys go deep and that will open up receivers underneath for a good gain. Instead we always seem to throw it deep. And I don't think we should be targeting a TE next year. I would rather see us shore up the D line and O line. Another inside linebacker. And a W/O. imho

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just wanted to say that I don't think our receivers are bad. All of them can catch. And Lazard looks very good. We rely too much on Graham and we throw the deep ball too often. I always thought we had guys go deep and that will open up receivers underneath for a good gain. Instead we always seem to throw it deep. And I don't think we should be targeting a TE next year. I would rather see us shore up the D line and O line. Another inside linebacker. And a W/O. imho

This seems to be a common thought among some people, ie "the WR's aren't bad, they can catch". Then they mention Graham sucks. Graham sucks because he is way overpaid, not because he hasn't caught the ball just as much as MVS, Allison and Kumerow. The Packers started the season with the following Depth Chart at WR:

• Adams
• Allison
• MVS
• Davis
• Kumerow
• Shepherd

2 of those 6 are gone. 3 of the remaining 4 have been less than spectacular over the 16 games.

Probably the best WR not named Adams is Lazard. As a matter of fact, Lazard is the only guy that has improved his game from the start of the season. A guy that the Packers chose to cut in September, but were fortunate enough to be able to get back on the PS.

So please, tell me again how talented this WR group is. Saying "they can catch" isn't a glowing endorsement and at times this season, that has been questionable with many of them. Seeing that our second best WR didn't even make the initial 53, tells me all I need to know about the other guys. Toss in Jimmy Graham as well as the other 3 TE's not playing that well and you have a receiving corp compromised of Adams and whomever.

In 2021, out of this group, who can you say for sure, will still be playing in Green Bay or the NFL for that matter?

 

[OldSchool101]

Side note: In a research effort about our receivers history. I came across an article from 2017 about Graham’s high drop rate FA his 10M salary. It was season end and in Seattle they were saying the exact sentiment we are about him today. You could change the article to today’s date and substitute GB for Seattle and you’d never know it wasn’t written yesterday.
There’s several things that have to happen IMO to advance.
1. Rodgers needs to improve his general accuracy into the 65-68% range +( very doable)

2. Rodgers needs to rollout out or scramble on several more plays in the 1st half with success. Enough to force DC to adjust at half time. Then flip the script at half time entirely and eliminate them altogether. (QB Option play)

3. Jimmy Graham (or another TE) must step up a level. The TE group is extremely vital to the success of a MLF Offense. So far they get a C-, but they need to play better in the B+ range to make the O function
If we had a Kittle we’d absolutely be ripping teams up. One more solid performer makes this team exponentially better.

4. GB must hit a couple 20+ passes early to keep a 2 High look. That in itself will begin to free up AJ underneath to punish a D for those crucial early 8+ scampers. MVS has to be challenged and expected to catch a couple big ones.
5. GB needs a successful ST trick play or 2. I’d like to see a lateral across the field to our fastest guy.

6. The O needs a successful gadget play or 2

It’s time to pull out the full playbook. It’s also time to challenge receivers to catch anything that touches both hands. Idc if it’s 1/2 yard behind them or 6” overthrown. The WR group needs to expect to cover a few slightly errant throws by a QB who is struggling. It’s time to step up

 

[PackAttack12]

You might want to consider that it's probable both Rodgers and the receivers are part of the problem.

Baffles me how this is so difficult to grasp.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Reads to me like AR has been great in the past therefore he can't be held responsible for issues this season. Rodgers gets the credit for great seasons but when the team struggles it therefore must be the WRs.

This perspective is overlooking something. This team is 13-3, not 6-9-1. So you can look at it the other way around. Many loud voices laid blame on Rodgers for a bad season in 2018 but don't want to give credit for a winning season in 2019. The undisputed leader of the team and the face of the franchise deserves some heat for last season's messiness, gimped up knee or not. In that same role, credit for winning is due, ugly or not.

Those voices that declared he was at the end of the line last season and were embittered by his bad early season press conference behavior and his contribution to running McCarthy out of town perhaps can't admit the degree to which they were wrong. So, we get exaggerated negative assessments of his performance.

In the microcosm of this last game we have a bunch of bad fantasy stats. On the other hand, we have 12 plays, 95 yards, TD. Does anybody have a complaint over Rodgers looking to Adams breaking open on that post-corner against a double team? It was 3rd. and 10. Should he have been looking for the short throw on that or the two prior incompletions? Any complaints on that terrific TD throw to Lazard? The best throw of the day may have been on the deciding play, that little toss to Jones on the middle screen for 31 yards. Go back and look closely at that one.

What's wrong with Russell Wilson? He's been winning uglier all year. And when it came down to the final play he came up inches short. Maybe he should have been looking for the double move to the corner. Oh, right, great fantasy stats.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And I don't think we should be targeting a TE next year. I would rather see us shore up the D line and O line. Another inside linebacker. And a W/O. imho

If the Packers move on from Graham as expected the depth chart at tight end would include only Lewis, Tonyan and Sternberger. They definitely need to improve on it.

 

[gopkrs]

If the Packers move on from Graham as expected the depth chart at tight end would include only Lewis, Tonyan and Sternberger. They definitely need to improve on it.

Well, if Sternberger can play (which we don't know yet); I actually like what we have there. But yes, that is light. Just don't see it as important as those other positions. I think Bayliss (practice squad) has potential.

 

[Do7]

This is my issue..it seems majority say..yeah he is missing throws..BUT....wr suck.

Dude you know good and well that this is the weakest receiving core talent wise Rodgers has had throughout his career, and considering they are equally as responsible for missing perfectly thrown balls, it can appear that you want to place everything on Rodgers when it's not just him. Yes he is responsible for a vast portion, but it's not just on him. Especially when receivers drop balls that are right on the money, and I'd go even further with some contested ones, like the one Adams dropped against The Vikings that would've been a TD. Sure Rodgers could've placed it better, but if Adams is the elite receiver we know him to be he catches that.

 

[Do7]

Let's all not forget that Brees missed the postseason like what? 4 times over the past decade and he wasn't necessarily doing well until recently. Rodgers in the first year learning a new system with a rookie head coach, with insubstantial talent at the receiving core for the most part, and is coming back from an injury from last year. I think overall he's done a decent job. DECENT, not outstanding or amazing. But with how we now have balanced, we don't necessarily need him to be outstanding or amazing. We've expanded in which now we have multiple ways of beating opponents rather than just relying on our QB, which is something we've been crying for due to the load he's been carrying for years.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm not even going to go back and look at all the people who brought this up, but I recall that after Sundays sub par performance by Rodgers, a few posters brought up the "distraction of him and Danica just buying a new home in Malibu and what was he thinking doing that right now?"

They closed on the house in November and had already moved in!

"Records reveal the all-cash, $28 million transaction went down off-market in November, though the pair actually moved into the property months ago, leasing the house over the summer."

https://pagesix.com/2019/12/26/aaron-rodgers-and-danica-patrick-buy-28m-malibu-estate/

 

[HardRightEdge]

What is frustrating is the prevailing attitude that poor Rodgers needs more weapons. That because he has won 10, 11, 12, and 15 games in the past (entirely by himself) that he is primarily responsible for each of our 13 wins this season.

He did not win those games by himself then; he didn't wing them by himself now.

The big problem I have with all this Rodgers stuff is the GOAT-to-goat portrayal. The difference in his abilities between then and now is fairly minor.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Well, if Sternberger can play (which we don't know yet); I actually like what we have there. But yes, that is light. Just don't see it as important as those other positions. I think Bayliss (practice squad) has potential.

My issue with what you are suggesting is that we have seen that backfire way too many times at many positions, especially at TE after Finley's injury. Would have been nice to have seen enough from Sternberger this season to say "yup, he is ready and our next starter", but that didn't happen.

I think its careless and poor planning to neglect positions of need in the off season, because you are expecting/hoping that unproven talent steps up and fills those needs. That definitely happened at ILB and WR this season. I also don't consider solely relying on the draft to fill starting positions as prudent management either.

 

[Pugger]

MVS disappointed me greatly. I was expecting huge things from him this year. Idk what happened. At least he's better than Allison.

I didn't know what to think of MVS before the season started. He has good speed and size but there had to be a reason why he wasn't drafted higher than the 5th. It might be because he isn't the best route runner in the world and doesn't have great hands...?