The Aaron Rodgers performance thread

[Pokerbrat2000]

i think they'll definitely go for another WR. not trying to improve at any position, when possible, isn't acceptable.

Or....they use a high pick on a QB, leave the receiving situation alone and you can Party like its 1999

 

[Sky King]

Is Rodgers Losing It?:

https://www.jsonline.com/videos/sports/nfl/packers/2020/01/02/rodgers-losing/2787230001/

 

[AmishMafia]

He did not win those games by himself then; he didn't wing them by himself now.

The big problem I have with all this Rodgers stuff is the GOAT-to-goat portrayal. The difference in his abilities between then and now is fairly minor.

I am a little surprised by this comment. To me I see a significant change in ARs level of play. I have posted several times that he will likely improve getting more familiar with the new offense. But there was a decline under MM the last few seasons as well. I doubt we ever see the AR of old, but he should get better.


So back to the chicken and egg.

Is Rodgers making the WRs look bad or are the WRs making Rodgers look bad?

Obviously neither are perfect so the answer is in between.

Look at Carson Wentz. He lost his top 3 WRs and is still doing very well. I don't think a WR, no matter how great, can make a good QB great. A great QB, however, can make good WRs better. Whether it is by accurate passes, system knowledge, or leadership, I think it is much bigger impact the QBs level of play has on WRs.

Not you HRE, but other posters have difficulty understanding talent isn't completely solely related to production.

 

[Mondio]

I don't think Wentz is doing all that well. He's overthrowing guys all game long. you should hear Philly fans. Half of them think they should have kept Foles and traded Wentz. Wentz is 100x's the QB foles is and it's not even funny. His arm is so much stronger, he can do it all. So can Rodgers. That TD to Lazard, the screen, not only the physical ability to get it there, but the understanding fo the game to call it in the first place. that strike to Adams on the sideline.

Rodgers can still throw them all. He's certainly not MVP Rodgers right now, but the reports of his demise are rather overstated.

 

[Do7]

This is just a wild guess, but I think Rodgers in a way was sorta experimenting what works and doesn't work necessarily. What I mean is that we've seen him go for a lot of home run balls, rather than taking what the defense gives him. I think he does that to assess where the receivers are and who he could go to for those situations come postseason. I think when we play I think Rodgers will take some chances but I do think he will take what the defense gives him and he may do some dump offs, because keeping the drive alive is important which gives us more opportunities to score and it helps with time of possession. Again we're not a **** offense, but having said that I think the key will be to outsmart these high powered teams, and maybe I'm giving Rodgers too much credit for this, but I think he'll have saved his best tricks come playoff time.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This is just a wild guess, but I think Rodgers in a way was sorta experimenting what works and doesn't work necessarily. What I mean is that we've seen him go for a lot of home run balls, rather than taking what the defense gives him. I think he does that to assess where the receivers are and who he could go to for those situations come postseason. I think when we play I think Rodgers will take some chances but I do think he will take what the defense gives him and he may do some dump offs, because keeping the drive alive is important which gives us more opportunities to score and it helps with time of possession. Again we're not a **** offense, but having said that I think the key will be to outsmart these high powered teams, and maybe I'm giving Rodgers too much credit for this, but I think he'll have saved his best tricks come playoff time.

A few posters have suggested this all season and while it would be great if it was true, I highly doubt it and think its mainly wishful thinking by Packer fans. Sure, the Packers may not have opened up their entire playbook and are making changes as they go, but I am pretty sure that what you see (over the last 16 games) is pretty much what you will get. Guys might step up and have a great game, we may match up better against one defense then the other, a catch or drop goes for or against us, but in the end.....I don't expect to see this offense all of a sudden be clicking on all cylinders.

 

[Do7]

A few posters have suggested this all season and while it would be great if it was true, I highly doubt it and think its mainly wishful thinking by Packer fans. Sure, the Packers may not have opened up their entire playbook and are making changes as they go, but I am pretty sure that what you see (over the last 16 games) is pretty much what you will get. Guys might step up and have a great game, we may match up better against one defense then the other, a catch or drop goes for or against us, but in the end.....I don't expect to see this offense all of a sudden be clicking on all cylinders.

I agree for the most part. I just think a lot what we saw this season was trial and error. Rodgers while he knows he doesn't have to be Superman for every game, he knows his mediocre performance isn't going to cut it. Again I think we'll see him make lesser mistakes and better throws, because he has to if we're going to make it to the big dance. We're 2 games from the big dance, and 3 games away from glory. He knows what's on the line.

 

[XPack]

So does that also feed into your narrative that Rodgers doesn't want to run the LaFleur offense, even though LaFleur himself said it was a part of the game plan?

Nail on the head.

It was intentional to go long as Lions were stacking against the run and leaving secondary open. Somehow AR and WR are not in sync and one or other creates a mismatch in plays that ought to have been completed and scored. It's an issue that'll resolve in time imo.

 

[OldSchool101]

Look at Carson Wentz. He lost his top 3 WRs and is still doing very well. I don't think a WR, no matter how great, can make a good QB great.

all due respect, I don’t like your example to support your argument of Rodgers has similar resources to Rams “leftovers” Here’s why..
In 2019

Here is their top 4 receiving LA Rams
1. Cooper Kupp 2017 3rd round #69th overall
2. Robert Woods 2013 2nd round 41st overall
3. Tyler Higbee 2016 4th round 120th overall
4. Brandon Cooks 2014 1st round 20th overall

Top 3 accounted for 3,032 yards receiving

Here’s the top 4 receiving GB Packers
1.Davante Adams 2014 2nd round #53rd overall
2.Aaron Jones 2018 5th round #182 overall
3.Allen Lazard 2018 missed draft as Undrafted
4.M. Valdez-Scantling 5th round #174th overall.

Top 3 accounted for 1,948 yards receiving

In your comparison, GB had nowhere near the draft resources applied to Rodgers receiving core. Not even close.
You give me a 2019- Top #20 1st round + 3rd rounder plus a top10-4th round pick plus Davante.
(We’ll each keep our comparable 2nd rounder)

In Return, I’ll give a 2019-2-5th rounders and let you have your pick of the Undrafted players plus you keep Robert Woods

you’d think I was absolutely crazy offering that trade

 

[PackAttack12]

In regards to taking the deep shots, in the Detroit game, LaFleur said that they were trying to pop them down the field by taking shots through the air.

So does that also feed into your narrative that Rodgers doesn't want to run the LaFleur offense, even though LaFleur himself said it was a part of the game plan? We don't know what the game plans are from game to game.

Nail on the head.

It was intentional to go long as Lions were stacking against the run and leaving secondary open. Somehow AR and WR are not in sync and one or other creates a mismatch in plays that ought to have been completed and scored. It's an issue that'll resolve in time imo.

Still waiting to see what type of spin @gbgary will put on this.

Patiently waiting.....

 

[XPack]

Still waiting to see what type of spin @gbgary will put on this.

Patiently waiting.....

MLF is mind controlled by AR! The Dark Side is with AR.

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[swhitset]

i acknowledged that but again, our guys are getting open...and i've also said that the ball has to be caught, and the blocking has to be right, etc. yes...everyone has to execute. it's makes it tough though when everyone is on the same page but one.

Funny that you think that everyone else is on the same page.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Funny that you think that everyone else is on the same page.

I think he meant to say that "everyone is on the same page, except the receiver that Rodgers is throwing to"?

 

[swhitset]

I think he meant to say that "everyone is on the same page, except the receiver that Rodgers is throwing to"?

At this point, i’m wondering why anyone, myself included, is trying to figure out what Gary is trying to say.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I am a little surprised by this comment. To me I see a significant change in ARs level of play.

From the standpoint of accuracy, the statistics don't bear that out, as I've taken some pains to point out, and the eye test that says some terrific throws are being made every game. The problem here is a combination of tricks of memory, viewing the game through the fantasy lens, and a dose of confirmation bias.

There's a tendency to view the past in terms of peak performance. But it's just that--the peak and not the average. What we have not seen this year is those couple of games of peak performance, but this season on balance is not so far off the average. Rodgers career emphasis on limiting interceptions seems elevated. That goes hand in hand with the observation, "We have a defense!" If you take out the high number of throwaways the last two season, his completion percentage is probable at or above the career average.

In short, I'm not sure where people think those career 36% of throws going incomplete were going.

So back to the chicken and egg.

Is Rodgers making the WRs look bad or are the WRs making Rodgers look bad?

Obviously neither are perfect so the answer is in between.

Look at Carson Wentz. He lost his top 3 WRs and is still doing very well. I don't think a WR, no matter how great, can make a good QB great. A great QB, however, can make good WRs better. Whether it is by accurate passes, system knowledge, or leadership, I think it is much bigger impact the QBs level of play has on WRs.

Not you HRE, but other posters have difficulty understanding talent isn't completely solely related to production.

Yeah, the answer is in between, but if you are going to allocate percentages the critics are overstating Rodgers' performance fall-off.

I don't watch the Eagles every week, but the lost value in Jeffery and Jackson being out may be exagerated. These guys are "names" but their injuries have been accumulating and productivity dropping for half a decade. Wentz's QB rating is down, not a bad season, not an elite QB either. They use the TEs and RBs more in the passing game and the gap is narrowed over what they might have gotten from those declining "stars". If playing against a Jeffery and Jackson, who they are not what they were, I'd have no fear in my heart.

That kind of reminds me of calls for the Packers to sign Emanual Sanders, another "name". That's another guy who has been injured and sliding for a couple of years. If he went on IR would you subtract anything from the 49ers odds? I wouldn't. That might well be addition by subtraction with more balls going to Samuel. That guys fast rising baller who should be getting more than 5 targets per game. It should go without saying, don't look at the names, look at the players.

Another example we could look at is Mahomes. Last season, packed with weapons, he had a year for the ages, proclaimed the next GOAT. Subtract Hunt and the numbers slide from insane to merely great. You can see the slide in Mahomes game logs immediately following Hunts release prior to Week 13 last season in the game logs:

http://www.nfl.com/player/patrickmahomes/2558125/gamelogs?season=2018

 

[Sky King]

Interesting article from Detroit about Stafford that also contains some blunt observations regarding Aaron Rodgers:

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/...ing-matthew-staffords-prime-years/2784723001/

 

[HardRightEdge]

Anybody catch Seattle's closing possession against SF last week with the Division on the line? If not, I'll break it down for you. I think you will find it instructive:

1st. and 10 at SF's 12 with 0:55 on the clock: Rocket ball to Metcalf on a slant into a tight window in the end zone. Broken up.

2nd. and 10 at SF's 12 with 0:51 on the clock: Wilson is under pressure, steps up, throws off his back foot foot to get it out on time to Hollister on a corner route. The defender was chasing with his back to the throw. It wasn't a particularly good route run by a guy who is not expecially athletic, and the ball was a little high and outside given who Hollister is and how he ran it. A stud might have been digging harder, looking back later, leaped, twisted and made it a brilliant back shoulder pitch and catch where everybody looks like a football genius. Such as it is, it looks like an off target throw. Regardless, it shouldn't come as a shock that top QBs miss these kinds of throws under these conditions, regardless of the target, more often than not. They don't make low-light tapes except when there's an axe to grind.

3rd. and 10 at SF's 12 with 0:46 on the clock: The play clock ticks down to zero for no good reason and Carroll uses his last the time out, something I'm sure he was not too pleased about. Was Wilson lolly gagging? Did the play call come in late? Was Wilson not watching the clock? In any case, Caroll probably takes over TO responsibility in these situations, not a bad idea. The QB has enough to think about.

Same down, distance and time: Wilson floats one to the left corner with no receiver within about 8 yards of the ball. Metcalf got balled up with the defender. However that was happening well before Wilson released the ball. Did he not see that? Does he lack field presence? Was he looking for a hold? Should he have gone elsewhere? It was a timing throw with no progression, all or nothing, as is the nature of timing throws. I suppose Wilson could have pulled it down and gone playground. On the other hand, it's not a situation where you can afford a sack. Call it a quasi-throwaway.

4th. and 10 at SF's 12 with 0:42 on the clock: SF calls TO. Then Wilson makes a nice throw on a semi-rollout off the back foot under some pressure to Usuna on an out route at the 1 yard line for the first down. That was Usuna's first catch in the NFL. (As an aside, Collinsworth said it was Lockett and had to be corrected. I don't know how that guy keeps that job. That play before this one? He said there was a bungled pick. The replay shows nothing of the sort. I guess people like to hear his non-stop random blatherings and mistakes. It happens throughout every game.)

1st and goal at SF's 1 with 0:23 on the clock. Fant took his time getting back to the huddle and precious time ticked off before the spike.

2nd. and goal at SF's 1 with 0:22 on the clock. Lynch comes in. Delay of game penalty. How the heck does that happen after a spike? Excessive deliberation over the play call I suspect. Losing that time and distance took away the run threat. Lynch leaves the game without taking a snap.

2nd. and goal at SF's 6 with 0:22 on the clock. Wilson under pressure again floats the ball to the corner into double coverage. Lockett had no chance and the ball was nearly picked with the defender not quite getting two feet down. Maybe if Lockett was 6'4", or 6'1" with a a good vertical, the kind of catch radiius you like to have in close, he stops short and goes over the defenders for the ball. A low probablity outcome regardless of who is throwing and catching, but again when it happens it goes on the highlight reel and everybody looks like a football genius. Regardless, that's not who Lockett is. But they had already tried those other guys on the corner routes.

3rd. and goal at SF's 6 with 0:15 on the clock. Possible pass interference on Hollister is not reviewed. But we know darn well that when these games come down to the final seconds they let guys play. Booth review evidently isn't going to change that. I suspect Wilson may have done what we've seen Rodgers do on numerous occasions: throw the ball to a guy in no position to catch it who is being held or interfered with, looking for the flag. Sometimes you get the call, sometimes you don't, but next to never in these situations. Frankly, after this dismal display of offense and time management Seattle should have to earn it.

4th. and goal at SF's 6 with 0:12 on the clock. Willson hits Hollister on a slant. He couldn't bull through the LB and comes up literally an inch or two short of the goal line. Game over. Seattle sure could have used the TO, time and distance they wasted along the way. They could have worked in, or at least threatened, a run from the 1.

So, what's the point? It should be obvious.

1) Seattle's been winning ugly all year, at least as ugly as the Packers. This would have been uglier than any Packer finish had they pulled it out. It's especially ugly in itself, and uglier still since they lost the game.

2) This series is a microcosm of the complaints leveled against the Packer offense and Rodgers this season. We've got a wasted timeout, a delay of game, lost time waiting for a guy to get to the huddle, throws a little off and a lot off and superficial issues with the QB decision making.

3) The targets are Hollister, Metcalf and Usuna, not a particulary threatening bunch. Lockett's a fine player, just not the type to be throwing to on a corner fade. No TE anywhere in the mix.

In conclusion, why are people not asking, "What's wrong with Wilson?" Well, a lot has to do with a nice passer rating and point 3) above. He sure looked pretty ordinary in this mess of plays while the sidelines muddled away opportunities trying to figure out which of their less than threatening options to choose from.

It's an object lesson. The quality of the weapons may not account for everything, but it sure counts for something. And get the d*mn plays in on d*mn time. At least the Packers have cleaned that up quite a bit the last few weeks.

 

[Mondio]

Funny that you think that everyone else is on the same page.

Gary Vision strikes again

 

[AmishMafia]

all due respect, I don’t like your example to support your argument of Rodgers has similar resources to Rams “leftovers” Here’s why..
In 2019

Here is their top 4 receiving LA Rams
1. Cooper Kupp 2017 3rd round #69th overall
2. Robert Woods 2013 2nd round 41st overall
3. Tyler Higbee 2016 4th round 120th overall
4. Brandon Cooks 2014 1st round 20th overall

Top 3 accounted for 3,032 yards receiving

Here’s the top 4 receiving GB Packers
1.Davante Adams 2014 2nd round #53rd overall
2.Aaron Jones 2018 5th round #182 overall
3.Allen Lazard 2018 missed draft as Undrafted
4.M. Valdez-Scantling 5th round #174th overall.

Top 3 accounted for 1,948 yards receiving

In your comparison, GB had nowhere near the draft resources applied to Rodgers receiving core. Not even close.
You give me a 2019- Top #20 1st round + 3rd rounder plus a top10-4th round pick plus Davante.
(We’ll each keep our comparable 2nd rounder)

In Return, I’ll give a 2019-2-5th rounders and let you have your pick of the Undrafted players plus you keep Robert Woods

you’d think I was absolutely crazy offering that trade

The only point I agree is the final part where i think you are crazy.

The point I most disagree with is the starting point that I am due respect.


Otherwise, im not sure your point. Did you get Wentz and Goff mixed up? I never brought up draft capital.

 

[gbgary]

what's so hard to understand about what i'm saying (and have said since early on). rodgers (as i feared) didn't want to run MLF's O as designed and hasn't. that's a fact. he wanted to run the old O for the most part, with a tweak or two, giving us what he and MLF have called the "work in progress" O. that O has sucked most of the time. i've said that rodgers, although still good, has regressed (due to age and injuries) and needs to adapt to his not so new reality, but has yet to do so. your ears and eyes know this to be true. the stats and film breakdown back this up. better talent around him can counter some of this but he's got to make a fundamental change in his attitude, and game, to take advantage. whether he's willing/capable of doing it remains to be seen but he's shown flashes that he can. people kid themselves that he's still the cockey rodgers of 2011, with the skills to back it up, but he's miles from that guy.
again...i'm not a rodgers hater. i'm a rodgers fan. i want him to succeed because i'm a Packers first and foremost. you already know i was not in favor of extending him so soon, and for so much, without seeing how he played after the right collarbone injury. i think i've turned out to be on the right side of that considering how he's played. now if he gets us another super bowl win i'll gladly admit i was wrong on that. lol

 

[OldSchool101]

The only point I agree is the final part where i think you are crazy.

The point I most disagree with is the starting point that I am due respect.


Otherwise, im not sure your point. Did you get Wentz and Goff mixed up? I never brought up draft capital.

I admit I did. But you must agree.. it made for the best draft capital mistake I’ve ever seen!

Hey tho Amish. I didn’t plan this I promise.
The top 4 Eagles Receivers?
Ertz (2nd round)
Goedert (1st round)
Sanders (2nd round)
Alshon (2nd round)

Do we see a pattern here? Regarding draft capital. While it’s arguable that any individual player can succeed regardless of draft position, It’s a proven fact that the higher the draft capital, the higher the production and the longer the tenure of a player.

Simply said, high draft players are better players that last longer. Also the inverse holds true across the league, lower draft (including UDFA) produce less and are out of the league sooner.

 

[Mondio]

QB with 10 screws and a plate in his shoulder a year removed from a tibial plateau fx in his leg is in year 1 of a new offense with a new OC, and New HC and has 1 receiver worth a crap. Old slow TE's, a nice RB and a bunch of who's that and the offensive struggles have nothing to do with any of that, it's all about a QB who's too stubborn to run the offense the way it's "supposed" to be LOL.

Despite the HC saying otherwise, this is what Gary Goggles do to your perception. None of that other stuff matters, it's all Rodgers wanting to run his old offense, that if you remember last year his struggles were also because he didn't want to run the offense. but this year he does LOL.

 

[swhitset]

what's so hard to understand about what i'm saying (and have said since early on). rodgers (as i feared) didn't want to run MLF's O as designed and hasn't. that's a fact. he wanted to run the old O for the most part, with a tweak or two, giving us what he and MLF have called the "work in progress" O. that O has sucked most of the time. i've said that rodgers, although still good, has regressed (due to age and injuries) and needs to adapt to his not so new reality, but has yet to do so. your ears and eyes know this to be true. the stats and film breakdown back this up. better talent around him can counter some of this but he's got to make a fundamental change in his attitude, and game, to take advantage. whether he's willing/capable of doing it remains to be seen but he's shown flashes that he can. people kid themselves that he's still the cockey rodgers of 2011, with the skills to back it up, but he's miles from that guy.
again...i'm not a rodgers hater. i'm a rodgers fan. i want him to succeed because i'm a Packers first and foremost. you already know i was not in favor of extending him so soon, and for so much, without seeing how he played after the right collarbone injury. i think i've turned out to be on the right side of that considering how he's played. now if he gets us another super bowl win i'll gladly admit i was wrong on that. lol

It’s funny how you state an opinion... and then declare it as fact... and then base everything else on your own reality.

 

[Mondio]

It’s funny how you state an opinion... and then declare it as fact... and then base everything else on your own reality.

Nailed it

 

[elcid]

Yes, Rodgers is performing worse due to a new system, and a mediocre supporting cast. But Rodgers has been getting worse for the past 2 or 3 years, seasons in which systems were more familiar and supporting casts were better. Personally, for all the speak of him being the GOAT QB talent, he has not really shown anything during this time. It has made me value the elite stable of receivers Rodgers had to experience in Jennings, Driver, Nelson and Cobb. It seems to me we undervalued these guys and overvalued Aaron some bit. So yes, obviously it is a mix of both (worse receivers and declining AR).

That being said, I find it hilarious that a multitude of fans here would give Aaron the entirety of his new contract (in which we pay him to be a top tier QB btw) to clean up his act, willing to cut him slack for just one. more. game. Sure, he deserves more of our patience than most Packer players as in the past he has definitely earned it, but at some point you got to criticize him as equally as everybody else.

Which brings up more criticism that should be leveled at Rodgers. Lack of leadership.

Many moons ago I watched Cal play vrs USC. Bears were underdogs to the 28-0 (over 2+ years) Trojans. Rodgers almost won that game. He walked out there cool as a cucumber. He was clapping his hand firing up the troops. Talking to the offense on the sidelines. I told my friends that he was the real deal and would be a great pro and we should get him of we could. I thought he was the best leader of QBs coming out of college since Elway. A trait I place high priority on. We all agreed he would go No. 1 in the draft.

That is long gone. Now he is yelling at his players, pointing at them after bad plays. He gives MLF a disrespectful sneer after a 4th down attempt failed recently. I see non-confident body language walking off the field after failed 3rd down attempts.

None of this helps the team or the WRs for that matter. You want to inspire and improve young WRs, don't throw them under the bus after a failed pass. Discuss it on the sidelines after the play. Can you imagine if WRs were calling him out after every aaron't pass?

I dont usually dig up posts from 5 pages back, but I feel like I had to come back to this one as this trait is the one thing that especially bugs me about our saint QB. We all acknowledge that AR has not been himself lately. We can all see it during the game. Except for himself it seems, as like you mention Amish, he has the tendency to direct blame to anyone but himself for missed opportunities. The football world has adored him for many, many years and he is privileged to hold a great level of respect among his peers. Why can't he use this adoration and be respectful to his teammates when things go bad - ALWAYS try to stay positive, encourage these young scared kids - talk to them instead of ignoring them.

He is a veteran grown *ss man for crying out loud, and supposedly our leader. It really is time for him to start acting like one, and not keep behaving like a scared and disgruntled kid. I didn't think I would have to do it, but beneath I have enclosed a TED talk by Simon Sinek, and I really hope you watch it Aaron.

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