The Aaron Jones Show?!!!

[Heyjoe4]

While that's true the Packers most likely wouldn't have re-signed Jones at all if they weren't able to backload the deal.



Once again, I haven't seen anyone mentioning Watkins is past his prime because of his age but based on a lack of production.

I get it about Jones. When you're in Cap Hell maybe it's time to stop digging. Seems like after they had that big FA year with the Smiths, Amos, and Turner they couldn't get out from under the cap. So they backload Jones, they backload Rodgers (paying him more while reducing his cap hit). They redid a number of contracts to push $$$ out. At some point that's all gonna come due. Veterans will not be resigned while dead cap comes off the books. It will be a tough year, maybe two. Time to win a SB while we have the players who can (should) do it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I get it about Jones. When you're in Cap Hell maybe it's time to stop digging. Seems like after they had that big FA year with the Smiths, Amos, and Turner they couldn't get out from under the cap. So they backload Jones, they backload Rodgers (paying him more while reducing his cap hit). They redid a number of contracts to push $$$ out. At some point that's all gonna come due. Veterans will not be resigned while dead cap comes off the books. It will be a tough year, maybe two. Time to win a SB while we have the players who can (should) do it.

Call it the cost of being successful and back to back 13 win seasons. I know everyone wants a SB win and for some, that is the only measure of success. Despite being up against the cap and stretching all these contracts out, with Aaron Rodgers at QB, my guess is that the Packers will have another decent season of 10+ wins.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Call it the cost of being successful and back to back 13 win seasons. I know everyone wants a SB win and for some, that is the only measure of success. Despite being up against the cap and stretching all these contracts out, with Aaron Rodgers at QB, my guess is that the Packers will have another decent season of 10+ wins.

I agree. As long as they have Rodgers, they're gonna be fun to watch and will win 10 plus games a season. There is a price in putting together a winning team, and as Packer fans, we've been very fortunate for the past 30 years. Yeah another Lombardi trophy or two would have been nice, but at least the teams have been entertaining and competitive. A lotta NFL fans can't say that.

 

[Schultz]

Prime has never been about production levels. Prime has always been based on relative age. A WR who does well at the age of 30, which means he is doing well "past his prime," since the connotation and usage of the word in regards to football production is based on age. They already established a range of age that's considered prime by positions.

If you use the term to say that Adams is in his prime, and Watkins is past his prime, you're not using the term correctly. That's what prompted this issue. It was stated, in a thread, and had become the common theme.

A person cannot say that one player is past his prime, to say you shouldn't give him a 2nd contract, then say that someone who's older is in their prime, so you can give them a huge contract. That's not a rational statement. You can say that the first guy has passed his prime, and probably won't have more to offer, while the other guy is playing well past his prime, and may well do so for a few years, and would be worth the risk. This is exactly what the Watkins/Adams issue is. There's actually more risk to a huge Adams contract than there is to the smaller Watkins contract, and you're getting the potential of two healthy young players in exchange for Adams.

Just setting the record straight. I don't intend to argue with you over it.

I disagree with your definition of prime. I feel prime is when you are playing your best regardless of age. DA is still in his prime. SW is not.

 

[PikeBadger]

I get it about Jones. When you're in Cap Hell maybe it's time to stop digging. Seems like after they had that big FA year with the Smiths, Amos, and Turner they couldn't get out from under the cap. So they backload Jones, they backload Rodgers (paying him more while reducing his cap hit). They redid a number of contracts to push $$$ out. At some point that's all gonna come due. Veterans will not be resigned while dead cap comes off the books. It will be a tough year, maybe two. Time to win a SB while we have the players who can (should) do it.

That's why it is imperative that the first contract young guys become the new core players that push out the 3rd contract guys.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's why it is imperative that the first contract young guys become the new core players that push out the 3rd contract guys.

Yeah that's a real balancing act. The GM needs to be spot on with every draft. There aren't that many first year impact players. Maybe years 2 and 3.

 

[Voyageur]

I disagree with your definition of prime. I feel prime is when you are playing your best regardless of age. DA is still in his prime. SW is not.

I'd prefer saying that Adams is playing fantastic football. At age 29, he could have several good seasons left in the tank. When you say he's in his prime, that's just an opinion, because the age shown for prime is actually based on statistical information to support it.

In all honesty, I believe Adams is going to have an injury this coming year that will cost him a few games. He's at that age where it does happen, if you spend a lot of time on the field. I have no misgivings on Watkins. He's going to be of some value, but not as a replacement for Adams. You don't lose that much talent and replace it with a guy who hasn't shown a track record of similar success.

There will be a lot of guys getting balls thrown in their direction. Let's hope they're ready.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'd prefer saying that Adams is playing fantastic football. At age 29, he could have several good seasons left in the tank. When you say he's in his prime, that's just an opinion, because the age shown for prime is actually based on statistical information to support it.

In all honesty, I believe Adams is going to have an injury this coming year that will cost him a few games. He's at that age where it does happen, if you spend a lot of time on the field. I have no misgivings on Watkins. He's going to be of some value, but not as a replacement for Adams. You don't lose that much talent and replace it with a guy who hasn't shown a track record of similar success.

There will be a lot of guys getting balls thrown in their direction. Let's hope they're ready.

Seems like the most accurate description of when a player is in his prime can't be determined until he's retired. At 37-38 Rodgers just put together two MVP seasons back-to-back. Does that mean these are his prime years? The problem is that "prime" is such a subjective assessment. I'd argue he was a better player when he could use his legs as a weapon. He can still run, but not like years past.

But the discussion was around Adams and Watkins. I don't know if they're in their prime, past it, or it's still coming. Doesn't matter. For practical purposes as a GB fan, Adams is not gonna be replaced. They can add veterans like Watkins and that helps, but it's likely the game plan will be very different, possible emphasizing the D depending how the draft falls.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Adams has an "off year" by his standards, say 83 catches for 997 yards and 5 TD's, will some say he peaked last year and is now past his prime?

 

[Schultz]

Personally I will blame it on Carr. But that's just me. IMO I see this coming. Waller will not be ignored in their offense.

 

[Heyjoe4]

If Adams has an "off year" by his standards, say 83 catches for 997 yards and 5 TD's, will some say he peaked last year and is now past his prime?

I think it takes more than one year to know of a player is declining. And it's difficult, in Adams' case, to adjust for the change in QBs. I like Carr, he's a decent QB. He's not Rodgers. So if Adams numbers drop, whose fault is it? Gotta look at drops, number of attempts, and other stuff.

I don't care much for the "prime years" thesis because it's so subjective. It's usually pretty obvious over the course of 2, maybe 3 years if a guy is in decline.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If Adams has an "off year" by his standards, say 83 catches for 997 yards and 5 TD's, will some say he peaked last year and is now past his prime?

Adams is going to have worse numbers than he's had in Green Bay for two reasons: 1) worse QB and 2) far more great receiving options on the Raiders than have been on the Packers the past few seasons (Waller alone means that the Raiders have infinitely more elite receiving options than the Packers have had with Adams).

 

[sschind]

Yeah they've done a nice job in the draft, especially with RBs and the OL, in drafting guys in the middle rounds who eventually start. Their scouts seem to have a real eye for these guys. And when the QB is taking up a lot of the cap, it's good to have starters on rookie contracts.


And I'd still hate to see Jones go. Just seems like a great guy. But that's the nature of pro football and cap management. And as RBs get close to 30, they just start to slow down and/or get hurt.

Its fairly clear that with a 20 million dollar cap hit and a 16 million dollar savings if they cut him that he will be gone unless something gives. Like Cap says I doubt if anyone will be willing to trade for that contract. Maybe he pulls a Cobb and decides to think of family stability first but the chances of that happening IMO are slim to none and slim is half way out the door. His cap hit will be over 4 million no matter what so unless they are willing to pull some more can kicking magic I can't see them getting it under 10 and Jones would have to be willing to take a huge cut for that to happen. The question is at what price point would you be willing to keep him or will it be time to finally cut bait and let him walk.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The question is at what price point would you be willing to keep him or will it be time to finally cut bait and let him walk.

I don't think that there is any question that Jones's current contract won't be in existence after the 3rd day of the new league year. That is when his $7M of his $7.4 M roster bonus would kick in.

Here is my guess as to what happens. Potentially, the Packers and Jones instead of parting ways, tear that contract up and make a new one. Packers still have to take the cap hits on all the upfront money of the old contract ($4.02M). Basically, Jones is going to be in a contract year in 2022, whether he stays in GB on a new contract or gets cut and signs with another team. If he stays on a new contract, the $7M roster bonus will slide down depending on his productivity. IF he has a banner year and the Packers and him agree to effectively a $15M 2023 salary, then $1M of that roster bonus goes away and he gets paid a total of $15M. Now if he has a below his norm year, but the Packers still want to keep him, maybe the whole $7M disappears and he sticks around for around $10M.

 

[Voyageur]

I don't think that there is any question that Jones's current contract won't be in existence after the 3rd day of the new league year. That is when his $7M of his $7.4 M roster bonus would kick in.

Here is my guess as to what happens. Potentially, the Packers and Jones instead of parting ways, tear that contract up and make a new one. Packers still have to take the cap hits on all the upfront money of the old contract ($4.02M). Basically, Jones is going to be in a contract year in 2022, whether he stays in GB on a new contract or gets cut and signs with another team. If he stays on a new contract, the $7M roster bonus will slide down depending on his productivity. IF he has a banner year and the Packers and him agree to effectively a $15M 2023 salary, then $1M of that roster bonus goes away and he gets paid a total of $15M. Now if he has a below his norm year, but the Packers still want to keep him, maybe the whole $7M disappears and he sticks around for around $10M.

It's all in how you load money into a new contract. I think you're right. They will be doing some pencil sharpening.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's all in how you load money into a new contract. I think you're right. They will be doing some pencil sharpening.

I'm no cap expert, but I think it will be better to cut Jones after this year. I won't be surprised if they take a RB in the 5th or 6th round, although Hill and Patrick have looked promising.

 

[Schultz]

I'm no cap expert, but I think it will be better to cut Jones after this year. I won't be surprised if they take a RB in the 5th or 6th round, although Hill and Patrick have looked promising.

As of now I would be more than surprised if they take a RB in the 6th round.

 

[McKnowledge]

I don't think that there is any question that Jones's current contract won't be in existence after the 3rd day of the new league year. That is when his $7M of his $7.4 M roster bonus would kick in.

Here is my guess as to what happens. Potentially, the Packers and Jones instead of parting ways, tear that contract up and make a new one. Packers still have to take the cap hits on all the upfront money of the old contract ($4.02M). Basically, Jones is going to be in a contract year in 2022, whether he stays in GB on a new contract or gets cut and signs with another team. If he stays on a new contract, the $7M roster bonus will slide down depending on his productivity. IF he has a banner year and the Packers and him agree to effectively a $15M 2023 salary, then $1M of that roster bonus goes away and he gets paid a total of $15M. Now if he has a below his norm year, but the Packers still want to keep him, maybe the whole $7M disappears and he sticks around for around $10M.

Not sure its structurally sound, but I like the logic.

 

[OldSchool101]

As of now I would be more than surprised if they take a RB in the 6th round.

Yes. If we trade back #28 to #33 we can get like 4- 6th Rounders.


April Fools!!!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Define impressive? I posted Desean Jackson numbers earlier. If you are just looking at the catches, yds and TD's, that isn't really looking at the big picture. Most would think DJ is a washed up old vet, but his stats were actually better than MVS's last season.

I don't want to get into discussing semantics but Watkins had 125 receptions for 2,029 yards and 15 TDs in his first two seasons in the league. My point was that since then his production dropped significantly though.

I get it about Jones. When you're in Cap Hell maybe it's time to stop digging. Seems like after they had that big FA year with the Smiths, Amos, and Turner they couldn't get out from under the cap. So they backload Jones, they backload Rodgers (paying him more while reducing his cap hit). They redid a number of contracts to push $$$ out. At some point that's all gonna come due. Veterans will not be resigned while dead cap comes off the books. It will be a tough year, maybe two. Time to win a SB while we have the players who can (should) do it.

The Packers pushed all that money into future seasons to have a chance of winning another Super Bowl as long as Rodgers is around. It will definitely result in a rebuild year in which they have to take a massive amount of dead money counting against their cap.

I'd prefer saying that Adams is playing fantastic football. At age 29, he could have several good seasons left in the tank. When you say he's in his prime, that's just an opinion, because the age shown for prime is actually based on statistical information to support it.

As mentioned before I don't think it makes sense to discuss about a player being in his prime. Adams has put up elite numbers over the past few seasons while Watkins has not. It's anybody's guess if that trend will continue or be reversed in the upcoming season.

I think it takes more than one year to know of a player is declining. And it's difficult, in Adams' case, to adjust for the change in QBs. I like Carr, he's a decent QB. He's not Rodgers. So if Adams numbers drop, whose fault is it? Gotta look at drops, number of attempts, and other stuff.

Don't forget that Adams played with Carr in college at Fresno State. In two seasons (26 games), he had 233 receptions for 3,031 yards and 38 touchdowns.

Its fairly clear that with a 20 million dollar cap hit and a 16 million dollar savings if they cut him that he will be gone unless something gives. Like Cap says I doubt if anyone will be willing to trade for that contract. Maybe he pulls a Cobb and decides to think of family stability first but the chances of that happening IMO are slim to none and slim is half way out the door. His cap hit will be over 4 million no matter what so unless they are willing to pull some more can kicking magic I can't see them getting it under 10 and Jones would have to be willing to take a huge cut for that to happen. The question is at what price point would you be willing to keep him or will it be time to finally cut bait and let him walk.

Just for the record, the Packers would only save $10 million of cap space by releasing Jones after this season. They could restructure his contract to reduce his cap hit to under $10 million by pushing even more money into future seasons but I'm not sure that would be a smart thing to do.

Here is my guess as to what happens. Potentially, the Packers and Jones instead of parting ways, tear that contract up and make a new one. Packers still have to take the cap hits on all the upfront money of the old contract ($4.02M). Basically, Jones is going to be in a contract year in 2022, whether he stays in GB on a new contract or gets cut and signs with another team. If he stays on a new contract, the $7M roster bonus will slide down depending on his productivity. IF he has a banner year and the Packers and him agree to effectively a $15M 2023 salary, then $1M of that roster bonus goes away and he gets paid a total of $15M. Now if he has a below his norm year, but the Packers still want to keep him, maybe the whole $7M disappears and he sticks around for around $10M.

If the Packers decide to keep Jones after this season I fully expect them to convert his base salary and roster bonus into a signing bonus to reduce the cap hit for 2023.

I'm no cap expert, but I think it will be better to cut Jones after this year.

As mentioned above, the Packers could restructure Jones contract and reduce his cap hit for 2023, even saving cap space for next season compared to releasing him. They would have to account for that money at some point though.

 

[sschind]

Just for the record, the Packers would only save $10 million of cap space by releasing Jones after this season. They could restructure his contract to reduce his cap hit to under $10 million by pushing even more money into future seasons but I'm not sure that would be a smart thing to do.

Right, thanks for the correction. I should have trusted the figures in the end column. I looked at the 4 million dollar pro rated bonus for 2023 and subtracted it from the cap hit but I forgot to look at the pro rated bonus beyond then.