Studs n Duds vs The Vikings

rmontro

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But we don't actually have a "money issue".

I'll agree that the numbers sound daunting, but we know the cap is going up in 2025. We're actually in very good shape compared to the rest of the league, but (admitedly) maybe not so much compared to our divisional rivals.
Well I mean really, if we're in worse shape than Detroit and Minnesota, that's not good news.

Another thing I'm starting to become worried about, is we've been running Jacobs pretty hard. In a way I like this, but if it's in a losing effort, I hate the thought of burning him up by the time we ever get into a better position to contend.
 
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Well, if we are so good, why did it take a blocked field goal to spare us from losing to the bears? We can do this game all day lol.

If that’s really the case, why bother having a regular season at all? Surely your body of work matters.

I mean, yes and no. Yes in the sense that it’s rare for every seed/ranking to remain unchanged throughout the playoffs, but… the top seeds still by and large are the ones that end up winning it all. Slightly more than 50% of super bowls have been won by the 1 seed. About 20% by the 2. The same largely holds true for conference championship appearances, and even into the divisional round. Of course there are Cinderella runs (and that’s what we hope for here) but the lion’s share of postseason success has gone to the top seeds by FAR (and how do they get those top seeds? ;))
The #1 seeds are an exception because they play less games and play at home throughout the playoffs. I’ve got more Good news! Zero chance we see a #1 seed next week.

I’m confident in this much and it goes beyond regular season accolades. If GB comes in with a noticeable amount of energy and we play leaning disciplined football? I’m talking one if those games where we’re catching most everything and not creating flags like Betsy Ross? Add to that if we come in 2-4 net + players. Such as Watson or Musgrave or Walker or Evan Williams? I think you might be surprised at what we are capable. I’d rather get all the bad game plans and bad flags and bad bad bad out in regular season. Instead go into Postseason refined like Gold n Green
If we come in slow averaging 6 points by halftime (our average against Division opponents this year) and moping on the bench? Well probably lose. If we come in and score 10,14,17+ points by HT? I think we’ll be very much alive in Quarter 4 with a chance to upset.

Answer is Yes. Regular season for me is important. Not for record keeping though. Only to the extent or degree of how it prepared us for our Wildcard match.

PS. I’d love to get Kalen King or Marshawn Lloyd or Luke Musgrave involved in this game. Let’s see what these have
 
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rmontro

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Let's set aside Love's early injury. Since returning, how much overall improvement have you seen over the course of the season? How much have we improved compared to the end of last season? Which improvements lead you to believe we're poised to make a meaningful playoff run?
I'm not sure I see overall improvement over how the team was playing at the end of last year. Our defense might be better. But last year we won our second games with the Vikings and Lions - this year we've been swept. We're 0-5 against the elite teams, but I feel like we should have/could have won at least ONE of those frigging games.

Yeah, I think we can beat the Eagles. I don't know if we will, but I think we can. It partly depends on which team shows up. Asking to win three or even two playoff games might be pushing it. But we'll see.
 

milani

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Well I mean really, if we're in worse shape than Detroit and Minnesota, that's not good news.

Another thing I'm starting to become worried about, is we've been running Jacobs pretty hard. In a way I like this, but if it's in a losing effort, I hate the thought of burning him up by the time we ever get into a better position to contend.
And it is not like we get a bye.
 
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But we don't actually have a "money issue".

I'll agree that the numbers sound daunting, but we know the cap is going up in 2025. We're actually in very good shape compared to the rest of the league, but (admitedly) maybe not so much compared to our divisional rivals. According to Spotrac and "overthecap" , the Packers will have roughly $62-63M in cap space going into the season - which includes roughly $15 million in unspent cash that carries over from this year.

According to Spotrac, that's the 11th best cap situation in the NFL. Unfortunately, the 4th best is Chicago ($81M), Minnesota is 5th best ($78M), and Detroit is 8th with $69M.

I'm sure we can expect the GMs in Detroit and Minnesota to use that money wisely, and make themslves stronger, and Chicago... ah, hell, who knows. Poles will probably blow it all signing that punter to a 20 year deal at massive numbers.

The key players in Detroit and Minnesota are mostly older than our own, but not that much. So they'll probably be able to keep their core players together for at least a couple of years. The North is going to be a murderers' row for the foreseeable future.

I think the Vikings are in another class of Cap as they need to sign or part ways with a QB, LT, RT and RB1.
Sam Darnold (45-55M)
Cam Robinson (10-20m)
Byron Murphy (9M)
Stevon Gilmore (7M)
Aaron Jones (7M)
Shaquille Griffin (5M)
Jerry Tillery ($3M)
Dalton Risner (2.5M)
RT Quissenberry

Personally I could see walking from Stokes altogether and going after a Xavier level $$ CB.
Myers only if he signs reasonable and we’ve already got 2-3 guys who play OC on board. Much of our other guys are smaller level signings and guys we can be selective. Id go draft at DT in Rd1 or RD2 to replace TJ unless he’s cheaper. Id go draft a WR Rd2-4 to replace Melton. I really like where we’re sitting we can truly better ourselves by March and I think we’ll be ultra competitive. We actually have room to extend a couple players, do a few smaller offers to Wilson etc.

Detroits is most like us, but not even quite as good as our $$ position imo. They have to decide on
Carlton Davis ($14M)
Marcus Davenport ($6.5M)
Kevin Zeitler ($6M)
John Cominky ($4.25)
Emmanuel Moseley (3M)
Levi Onwuzurike ($2m)

GB’s list is much less daunting. Kinda a breeze really. no priorities and making decisions on pedestrian players
Stokes (Rookie ending)
Josh Myers (Rookie ending)
TJ Slaton (Rookie ending)
McDuffie (Rookie ending)
Eric Wilson (smaller deal)
Im not worried about Chicago until I have to be. GB imo is in the Drivers seat. We have a strong GM and finally have $$$ to play with.
 
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adambr2

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I think the Vikings are in another class of Cap as they need to sign or part ways with a QB, LT, RT and RB1.
RBs are cheap, even the good ones. I don’t know what their OL situation is but judging by how much we didn’t make Darnold uncomfortable on Sunday I can’t imagine they are in too rough of shape.

QB is where it gets interesting. I’m sure their original plan was to just let JJ take over after this year and that certainly is a cap friendly plan. But now I don’t think they can afford to just let Darnold walk.
 
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RBs are cheap, even the good ones. I don’t know what their OL situation is but judging by how much we didn’t make Darnold uncomfortable on Sunday I can’t imagine they are in too rough of shape.

QB is where it gets interesting. I’m sure their original plan was to just let JJ take over after this year and that certainly is a cap friendly plan. But now I don’t think they can afford to just let Darnold walk.
Normally you would say that.
However Jones isn’t cheap when you have to add him to 8-9 key decisions to make. $7M+ is still a mid level contract and he’s not going to take much less after another 1,000+ rushing 1400 all -purpose type season. PFF has him at top #20 in FA for 2025.

The bigger issue is the Vikings have 3 players in the top 20 FA and 5 in the top 35. Can Robinson isn’t cheap either. Neither is Gilmore or Byron Murphy. Those 3 alone could command a good chunk of cap $ and as you said, we haven’t even made a decision at QB.

Unless the Vikings
1. Part with Darnold
2. Mortgage their future by pushing debt out like we did with Rodgers

The Vikings will be doing some serious cap juggling.
 
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And yet by the same metric we are behind both Detroit and Minnesota in divisional odds and behind all three of Detroit, Minnesota, and Philly in odds of making conference championship and making Super Bowl. So again I'd ask: what specific improvements lead you to believe we'd be favored against them (possibly all three of them) once the postseason hits?

I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's *improbable*.

Yes, teams are able to elevate themselves in the postseason, but frankly speaking more often than not this isn't the case. We have a tendency to point to the exceptions rather than the rule. The best indicator of future behavior is...past behavior. The idea that teams will find a "second gear" come postseason is a nice theory, but IMO in actuality - over a sufficiently large sample size I think we find that far more teams play roughly at their same regular-season "level" than are able to suddenly hit their next level once the postseason starts. Like I've said plenty of times now - I hope I'm wrong, and certainly could be, but I don't think that's a particularly likely outcome as it stands. But of course that's why they play the games...
What I’ve found with human nature over the tens of thousands of folks that have crossed my pathway.
Even IF I had the most compelling evidence it would not change the mind of someone that’s had their mind already made up.
Even if I had stepped into the future, went to the game and witnessed the outcome and stepped back into time? People would still vehemently fight me because they want to believe what they want to believe.
So you just go through each season believing in the possible, it won’t bother me one ounce it really won’t past the fact I think you’ll miss out eventually. Which that part pains me.
I’ll still ALWAYS believe in the impossible. Even if it doesn’t happen this month or this year it won’t shake me. I’ve witnessed it so kinda hard for me not to.
 
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Magooch

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I recall this same sentiment in 2010. The more you try to convince me that nobody but a #1 seed will win? The less confident I think you are. Lol
You seem to be reading a lot of absolute statements in places that I didn’t make them.

“It’s improbable that we beat three teams we failed to beat in the regular season” =/= “it’s impossible for us to win a single game”

“Statistically the #1 seed wins greater than 50% of the time” =/= “nobody but the #1 seed can win”

Etc
 

rmontro

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And it is not like we get a bye.
I'm still not used to only one team per conference getting a bye. What makes me furious is that we had the bye and the #1 seed in 2020 and in 2021 and did not do a damn thing with it. So they couldn't get it done the easy way, I don't want to hear any crying that they have to win three games on the road now.
 

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I think we're going to see a few changes that will help the Packers in 2025. That won't resolve the issue at QB. The question there is whether or not Love will progress above the level of an average NFL QB. We've been spoiled, and expect better, but whether or not we get it is still up in the air. I'm not going to go all in on him, and I'm certainly not going to throw him under the bus. I want to see what next year looks like.

On Willis. He appears to have some chops, as long as he's in a system that he fits. His problem in Nashville was no different than Levis. Square peg trying to fit into a round hole, and it doesn't fit. I'd almost like to see some way the Packers could hang on to him. He may be one of the best #2s in the entire league. It's nice knowing you have someone you can trust, who understands the system, and can step in when needed.

I not in the slightest bit sold on Myers at center. If Monk can't cut it, and they can't find someone else who's better, I'd be working with Jordan Morgan, and hope the guy could move into that spot, because as of now, he's a man with no place to play. He just hasn't looked that good, and I wonder if it's a lack of talent or is it a lack of intelligence, that's keeping him from digesting responsibilities on plays.

One player I'd suggest the Packers check out is Travis Frederick, who retired from the Cowboys because of Guillain-Barre Syndrome. If he's recovered from it, this is a guy who could be a difference maker in the middle of the line. He officially became a free agent, and sat out this season, so there's nothing but blue sky signing him. He's a Wisconsin boy, from Sharon, and went to Big Foot HS. If he's recovered, which is possible, he could be a good addition. At this point, I don't know.

On defense, we need to interior defensive linemen who can play single gap defense the way it's supposed to be played. Before Hafely, we played two gap, but this change means we need to have a couple of guys who are smaller, but a lot quicker, who can get penetration and stop plays before they start. They may find one in free agency, but the draft could be a great way to build for the future at the position.

I still have a man coverage cornerback on my wish list. Someone who can rotate his hips, and stay with the speedy outside receivers we're seeing around the league. Also, a 2nd one, if possible.

Quite a few "wants" there on my part. How it pans out, I don't know. The cap is going to have an effect on where it goes. Depending on who the Packers let walk as FAs will determine how they draft more than most years.
 

SudsMcBucky

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I'm still not used to only one team per conference getting a bye. What makes me furious is that we had the bye and the #1 seed in 2020 and in 2021 and did not do a damn thing with it. So they couldn't get it done the easy way, I don't want to hear any crying that they have to win three games on the road now.
Hey, winning 3 on the road was the route to our LAST SB run. I'll take it.
 

Firethorn1001

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One player I'd suggest the Packers check out is Travis Frederick, who retired from the Cowboys because of Guillain-Barre Syndrome. If he's recovered from it, this is a guy who could be a difference maker in the middle of the line. He officially became a free agent, and sat out this season, so there's nothing but blue sky signing him. He's a Wisconsin boy, from Sharon, and went to Big Foot HS. If he's recovered, which is possible, he could be a good addition. At this point, I don't know.

Myers point aside, Frederick has been out of the league since 2020 and was on on the HOF ballot this year (to illustrate how long he has been away). If there could be less than a 0 percent chance of something happening, this would be it.
 

BrokenArrow

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Um....okay now I'm just annoyed but incase you have reading comprehension issues
Stopped reading right there brother. No need to be a pretentious putz. I'm not going to be insulted. Willis is a solid option based on what he has done with LaFleur's offense when given the chance. If you disagree, be that as it may and move on already.
 

adambr2

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Stopped reading right there brother. No need to be a pretentious putz. I'm not going to be insulted. Willis is a solid option based on what he has done with LaFleur's offense when given the chance. If you disagree, be that as it may and move on already.
He did a great job when called upon this year, but I’d guess he’d find that going up against the Eagles/Vikings/Bears is a little different than going up against the Colts and Titans.
 

Voyageur

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Myers point aside, Frederick has been out of the league since 2020 and was on on the HOF ballot this year (to illustrate how long he has been away). If there could be less than a 0 percent chance of something happening, this would be it.
You're right. I don't know why I was thinking he'd only been out for one year. It wouldn't work after this much time away from the game, no doubt about it.

That said, the fact that Myers picked his game up as much as he has over the last half of the season ended up with him being an alternate for the Pro Bowl. I was looking at some of the changes in performance, which I hadn't looked at, and found he's been grading out pretty good at this point. We might want to think about that, but he's a UFA after this season, and with the ranking he has, his salary requirements are going to skyrocket. I don't know if he's going to be worth the hit it's going to be. But, who could replace him? Monk? We haven't heard anything along that line at this point.

Personally, I think he's going to walk. But, that's just conjecture.
 
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You seem to be reading a lot of absolute statements in places that I didn’t make them.

“It’s improbable that we beat three teams we failed to beat in the regular season” =/= “it’s impossible for us to win a single game”

“Statistically the #1 seed wins greater than 50% of the time” =/= “nobody but the #1 seed can win”

Etc
Yes. But your constant sentiment of doubt in a variety of different arguments begins to lose its luster.
It’s like you’re telling me how you dated this beautiful girl that your infatuated with and how you’re not good enough for her and she’s going to break it off because there’s 3 other guys you perceive better than yourself. I don’t care. Maybe those guys are not ready for the big stage. Maybe she actually likes you because you’re not perfect!! and you don’t make her feel like she has to be perfect! If you really like her?? go after her!!! Quit all the self doubting it’s depressing and it’s 100% sure to be your demise if you carry that into your relationship. If she kicks you to the curb? It’s ok maybe it wasn’t meant to be but don’t speak to your demise, have some courage. You’re handsome in your own right and you can win her over if you show you are more devoted to her.

Ok. 100% agree it’s a tough path. 3 road wins against 3 tougher opponents is tough.

Ok now that that’s behind us!
We’re in agreement right??
How do we go about winning this girl over. That’s all I care about. I’d say be on best behavior and be yourself. God will move mountains. What say you? What’s your plan to Win?
 
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tynimiller

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Stopped reading right there brother. No need to be a pretentious putz. I'm not going to be insulted. Willis is a solid option based on what he has done with LaFleur's offense when given the chance. If you disagree, be that as it may and move on already.
Of course you did, especially because I specifically apologized literally right there after that. You’re act as if your incapable of reading an entire post is insanely immature.
 

Schultz

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Yes. But your constant sentiment of doubt in a variety of different arguments begins to lose its luster.
It’s like you’re telling me how you dated this beautiful girl that your infatuated with and how you’re not good enough for her and she’s going to break it off because there’s 3 other guys you perceive better than yourself. I don’t care. Maybe those guys are not ready for the big stage. Maybe she actually likes you because you’re not perfect!! and you don’t make her feel like she has to be perfect! If you really like her?? go after her!!! Quit all the self doubting it’s depressing and it’s 100% sure to be your demise if you carry that into your relationship. If she kicks you to the curb? It’s ok maybe it wasn’t meant to be but don’t speak to your demise, have some courage. You’re handsome in your own right and you can win her over if you show you are more devoted to her.

Ok. 100% agree it’s a tough path. 3 road wins against 3 tougher opponents is tough.

Ok now that that’s behind us!
We’re in agreement right??
How do we go about winning this girl over. That’s all I care about. I’d say be on best behavior and be yourself. God will move mountains. What say you? What’s your plan to Win?
Well, I hope he doesn't use my plan. I once sent a beautiful woman Roses at work. Then when I picked her up for dinner, I brought her candy. I had stopped by my friends to have a drink first to keep my courage up. When I got there, she told me she almost canceled as she was allergic to Roses and was not feeling great. At dinner she started sneezing. She asked me if I had a dog. I honestly replied "No". I didn't reveal that my buddy did. While ordering she made it very clear to the waiter that she had a peanut allergy. The dinner conversation did not go well. Probably because I was distracted trying to figure out just how I was going to get the box of Reeses' back that I had wrapped up and given to her.
 
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Well, I hope he doesn't use my plan. I once sent a beautiful woman Roses at work. Then when I picked her up for dinner, I brought her candy. I had stopped by my friends to have a drink first to keep my courage up. When I got there, she told me she almost canceled as she was allergic to Roses and was not feeling great. At dinner she started sneezing. She asked me if I had a dog. I honestly replied "No". I didn't reveal that my buddy did. While ordering she made it very clear to the waiter that she had a peanut allergy. The dinner conversation did not go well. Probably because I was distracted trying to figure out just how I was going to get the box of Reeses' back that I had wrapped up and given to her.
That Date sounds like an episode of “Seinfeld”.
 

Thirteen Below

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Can you imagine what beating the Eagles at Philly would do for our confidence?

Probably something similar to what blowing out Dallas did last year.



GB’s list is much less daunting. Kinda a breeze really. no priorities and making decisions on pedestrian players
Stokes (Rookie ending)
Josh Myers (Rookie ending)
TJ Slaton (Rookie ending)
McDuffie (Rookie ending)
Eric Wilson (smaller deal)
Im not worried about Chicago until I have to be. GB imo is in the Drivers seat. We have a strong GM and finally have $$$ to play with.

Let's not forget about the Glass Man, Alexander. Over the last 4 seasons, he's played in well under half the games the rest of the team has played, or will have played by the end of the season - 34 out of 73 or 74 games, depending on how far we go in the playoffs. By the end of this season, we'll have paid him (if I'm doing the math correctly) $48,000,000 to play 45% of the games we've played in the last 4 years.

Some tough decisions are going to have to be made on his future; Green Bay has an out in 25. Gute is going to have to be wondering if it's even worth keeping a roster spot reserved for such poor production. His injury history is extensive - he missed half the games in his senior season in college with 4 different injuries (2 of them knee injuries), 2 games his rookie season here, clean bill of health as a sophomore... 5 more lost-time injuries between his 3rd year and this season, and these past 2 seasons he's only played about 1/3 of the team's games.

He could have made a substantial difference in that playoff game in San Francisco last January, but he wasn't there. There were several key losses this season where having an elite cornerback on the field would probably have made a big difference. At the very least, his presence in both Detroit games and both the Vikings games would have changed the way they schemed for us, and changed the narrative of the entire game.

Not saying we'd have won, but the way they would have played out would have been significantly different. And keep in mind, we lost 3 of the 4 games by an average of less than a field goal.
 

Sanguine camper

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At this point, Alexander is basically a dead cap hit of 25 million per year. His getting paid big bucks to sit in the hot tub. The Packers went through it with Bakhtiari. Alexander will have knee surgery. He's likely not going to be ready to play in 7 months. Time to open up a roster spot by cutting him. Some people think he'll bring something in a trade. I doubt it given his declining ability to return from injuries. Alexander had some good seasons and was one of few good first round draft picks on defense. The hand writing on the wall is easy-to-read. Alexander can't be counted on.
 

tynimiller

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At this point, Alexander is basically a dead cap hit of 25 million per year. His getting paid big bucks to sit in the hot tub. The Packers went through it with Bakhtiari. Alexander will have knee surgery. He's likely not going to be ready to play in 7 months. Time to open up a roster spot by cutting him. Some people think he'll bring something in a trade. I doubt it given his declining ability to return from injuries. Alexander had some good seasons and was one of few good first round draft picks on defense. The hand writing on the wall is easy-to-read. Alexander can't be counted on.
There is no will, he has now had surgery as of a few days ago from what I’ve seen.

Dude was trying his *** off to play with a torn PCL - hindsight I’m sure is hitting both him and the organization now that they should have just done surgery right away.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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At this point, Alexander is basically a dead cap hit of 25 million per year. His getting paid big bucks to sit in the hot tub. The Packers went through it with Bakhtiari. Alexander will have knee surgery. He's likely not going to be ready to play in 7 months. Time to open up a roster spot by cutting him. Some people think he'll bring something in a trade. I doubt it given his declining ability to return from injuries. Alexander had some good seasons and was one of few good first round draft picks on defense. The hand writing on the wall is easy-to-read. Alexander can't be counted on.

:roflmao: :roflmao: :roflmao:

I'd say this is a complete overreaction. The Packers aren't going to take a $19M dead cap hit by releasing Jaire right now. They can open up a roster spot by IR'ing Jaire. Finally, he isn't a "dead cap hit" of 25M/year either.

Look, I'm not happy with his situation and likened it to Bahk's contract situation as well, taking a big hit for a player who isn't playing. But his injury isn't the same as what Bahk had (torn ACL and cartilage). He is also carrying a lot less weight than Bahk and younger. He will probably come back from this just fine.

I don't see that Jaire gets a roster bonus in March, so the Packers have plenty of time to play this out. Now if his situation starts to go down the same road as that of Bahk's (below), than by Sept. maybe he doesn't make the team.

  • December 31, 2020: Bakhtiari tore his ACL and cartilage during practice

  • January 7, 2021: Bakhtiari had surgery to repair his ACL

  • November 18, 2021: Bakhtiari had arthroscopic surgery

  • April 2022: Bakhtiari had another surgery

  • October 2023: Bakhtiari announced that he would have season-ending surgery to fix a cartilage issue in his knee

  • March 11, 2024: The Packers released Bakhtiari after 11 seasons
 
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gopkrs

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At this point, Alexander is basically a dead cap hit of 25 million per year. His getting paid big bucks to sit in the hot tub. The Packers went through it with Bakhtiari. Alexander will have knee surgery. He's likely not going to be ready to play in 7 months. Time to open up a roster spot by cutting him. Some people think he'll bring something in a trade. I doubt it given his declining ability to return from injuries. Alexander had some good seasons and was one of few good first round draft picks on defense. The hand writing on the wall is easy-to-read. Alexander can't be counted on.
I read he might be able to play in the super bowl.
 
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