Studs n Duds vs The Vikings

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Right now, I see the Packers as a franchise where getting to the playoffs is good enough.
In all the time I’ve spent watching, studying or analyzing. Countless interviews and film study. I’ve never once felt like our organization felt like making it to the playoffs was all they desired. Honestly, if I’m truthful, I think some fans won’t be happy no matter the outcome. If we won a SB this year then the bar would get set higher to “yeah but we didn’t win by TD’s they almost beat us! If not for that favored flag we wouldve lost!”
 

Firethorn1001

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Honestly, if I’m truthful, I think some fans won’t be happy no matter the outcome. If we won a SB this year then the bar would get set higher to “yeah but we didn’t win by TD’s they almost beat us! If not for that favored flag we wouldve lost!”

Guaranteed.

If they don't win against all 3 teams they lost to the mantra will be "They got lucky that they didn't have to face <insert team>"
 

milani

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This is what really irks me. We had one year with Love where our cap numbers were favorable, then we had to give him his giant payday, now we're behind the Lions and Vikings again. I thought when we unloaded Rodgers, it would help our cap, but that ship sailed quickly. I know we had to pay Love though, we had no real choice. Still irritating. We have the youngest team in football, we shouldn't have a money issue.
Are we still paying for Bahktiari?
 
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Looking at our "floor," we had some ugly games against BAD teams in Jacksonville and Chicago, barely sneaking by them.
Oh kinda like Eagles 28 Jaguars 23? or were you thinking more Vikings 12 Jaguars 7? Or maybe Bears 24 Rams 18? Or how about Vikings 30 Bears 27 in OT? Or Washington 18 Bears 15? Or Detroit 23 Bears 20?

Almost Every Great team struggles against low echelon teams. Carolina took KC under the 2-minute Tie score. The following week KC beat the Raiders. The Raiders were winning until 9 minutes left in 4th qtr. KC beat a 4 Win Team with a 4th qtr FG.
Your logic directly implies teams who win close games against low echelon are just bad.
So you are literally using an argument that implies Detroit, GB, KC, Vikings, Rams and Washington are bad. Then The Ravens must be terrible they lost to Las Vegas this year.
That season we had wins against the Eagles (10-6), Jets (11-5), Giants (10-6), and the Bears (11-5).
Those don’t sound like powerhouses to me. They sound more like 2024 Houston, LA and Seattle level teams.
And our "close losses" that season came against the 14-2 Patriots and 13-3 Falcons.
Hmmm. That sounds eerily familiar to 2024. GB losses are to these opponents across 16 contests
14 Wins
13 Wins
14 Wins
14 Wins
14 Wins.
Of course, to speak in our favor, we did ultimately beat those same Falcons (and handily) in the playoffs,
Sure we did. Then why is it anymore impossible next weekend?
I would argue that a young team would be better (in general) at the end of the season than the beginning. Meaning trending upwards. So if a team with a 3rd year QB (2010) and veterans everywhere can improve going into postseason, then even more argument that a young team finding their footing can also
 
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tynimiller

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It's probably just a bit in the middle for me. We're better than some of the doom and gloom in some ways, but at the same time also probably worse than some of the hype in some ways too.
On one hand, yes, it's good that our losses have all been relatively close and while we do have five losses, they have all came against arguably 3 of the top 4-5 teams in the league.
On the other hand...out of our 11 victories, only 3 have come against teams with winning records (and 4 wins against teams with less than 5 wins on the season).

Looking at our "floor," we had some ugly games against BAD teams in Jacksonville and Chicago, barely sneaking by them. And I think every team has those sort of games from time to time, to be fair. But we have also shown so far that our "ceiling" is that we are able to hang tough and keep it close with elite teams. The trouble is that as of yet we have not shown an ability to "break through the ceiling" and actually get a win vs any of those elite teams. And to make it far in the postseason, odds are decent that we will need to manage at least two, probably three wins against those teams that we failed to beat once in five regular-season chances (to say nothing of whoever the AFC produces, be it KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, etc)


I think in general the 2010 team had a stronger body of work despite a worse W-L record. That season we had wins against the Eagles (10-6), Jets (11-5), Giants (10-6), and the Bears (11-5). And our "close losses" that season came against the 14-2 Patriots and 13-3 Falcons. Of course, to speak in our favor, we did ultimately beat those same Falcons (and handily) in the playoffs, after beating the Bears again (who we had split the season series with), and a second win in the wild card over the Eagles. By my count we had at least 4 wins over playoff teams that year, compared to I believe just 2 this year.

Or, to put it shortly - in 2010 there was IMO a bit more reason to believe we could beat some of the top teams in the league because we had already done it that season. This year there is much less evidence to support that kind of belief I'd say.

Now all that to say, it's been a fun season, and I still enjoy watching the games even in seasons that don't end in a super bowl victory, but at the same time for me personally I don't think it's wrong or being a bad fan to think that we have probably already seen our "ceiling" and to not expect much beyond that. Now of course I hope that is not the case and we are able to go beyond that level, but at this point it feels like we're basically playing with house money and any postseason progress is just the cherry on top.

And at the same time, TBH it's not like anything I/we say here is really going to change anything, but while I don't think there's any benefit in constantly sh*tting on the team and acting like we're doomed to failure, there's also no benefit in plugging our ears and pretending there's no problem and that we are totally equal with every other team and there's nothing to complain about. Neither way really does anyone any good IMO. Some could stand to admit that we are playing some decent football, have some decent players, and have put together a relatively successful staff and roster with steady and competent management...and some could stand to admit that we are probably not playing *championship* football right now, might lack for "difference making" players, have often come up short in big games, and aren't always batting 1.000 on player scouting/drafting/recruitment/roster construction, etc. Both can be true (and probably are)

They also lost to three losing record teams, I always remembered that team seemingly to many of the most involved fanbase as a coin toss and no one knew what was gonna happen in the playoffs - we definitely had proven we could beat good teams, but also proven we could drop off against teams we should beat too.
 

tynimiller

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Are we still paying for Bahktiari?

Dead Cap for this year (rounded to nearest Million):

Bakh $18M
Aaron Jones $12M
Preston $12M (this is not entirely a hit as he played for us for some of the year)
Savage $5M
Douglas $5M
Campbell $4M
Nijman $2.5M
Nixon $1.5M

This is fairly normal for most teams...what wasn't normal was last year where Rodgers was $40.3M alone.

Right now Spotrac shows we are only around $18M in dead next year.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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They also lost to three losing record teams, I always remembered that team seemingly to many of the most involved fanbase as a coin toss and no one knew what was gonna happen in the playoffs - we definitely had proven we could beat good teams, but also proven we could drop off against teams we should beat too.

Yup and the 2010 Packers team put 15 players on IR that year. I also remember a lot of players that weren't IR'd missing games and the Packers headed into the playoffs pretty banged up.

Do I expect the 2024 Packers to win 3 road playoff games and then a Super Bowl? No, but if they do, it will add a ton of fun and excitement to what I view as an already successful and entertaining season.
 
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Yup and the 2010 Packers team put 15 players on IR that year. I also remember a lot of players that weren't IR'd missing games and the Packers headed into the playoffs pretty banged up.

Do I expect the 2024 Packers to win 3 road playoff games and then a Super Bowl? No, but if they do, it will add a ton of fun and excitement to what I view as an already successful and entertaining season.
Absolutely. I think the best Wins are the ones you don’t expect. Can you imagine what beating the Eagles at Philly would do for our confidence?

Obviously I want to see us get hot and go on a run. At minimum I’d like to see us beat Eagles or Rams and maybe a dog fight in the Divisional.
I’m not sure we’re good enough to win 3 in a row. I could definitely see 1 or 2 though that’s very realistic.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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Absolutely. I think the best Wins are the ones you don’t expect. Can you imagine what beating the Eagles at Philly would do for our confidence?

Agee and for me, it doesn't matter if it's a regular season or playoff win, being the underdog and winning, just makes the victory that much sweeter.

I traveled to Nashville this year to watch the Packers play the Titans. After Love went down in the 1st game, I thought "oh hell, I'm going all the way to Nashville just to see the Packers get beat." Turned out to be one of the "more fun" games I have been to. Packer fans were numerous and boisterous. Malik Willis put on a show in front of his old team and the Packers won handily, 30-14.

Sure, being a Lion fan or Chiefs fan right now probably feels pretty exciting and promising, but if either get knocked out of the playoff, guessing many of their fans will do nothing but complain about coaches, GM, players, etc.
 

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Oh kinda like Eagles 28 Jaguars 23? or were you thinking more Vikings 12 Jaguars 7? Or maybe Bears 24 Rams 18? Or how about Vikings 30 Bears 27 in OT? Or Washington 18 Bears 15? Or Detroit 23 Bears 20?

Almost Every Great team struggles against low echelon teams. Carolina took KC under the 2-minute Tie score. The following week KC beat the Raiders. The Raiders were winning until 9 minutes left in 4th qtr. KC beat a 4 Win Team with a 4th qtr FG.
Your logic directly implies teams who win close games against low echelon are just bad.
So you are literally using an argument that implies Detroit, GB, KC, Vikings, Rams and Washington are bad. Then The Ravens must be terrible they lost to Las Vegas this year.
My man I specifically addressed this - in quite literally the very next sentence, lol.
Those don’t sound like powerhouses to me. They sound more like 2024 Houston, LA and Seattle level teams.
Houston and Seattle are both 9-7; LA is 10-6. Relative to their competition the 2010 Jets, Bears, etc were head and shoulders above this year's Seahawks, Rams, Texans and I don't think it's particularly close. That's wins over the #2 and #3 seeds in the NFC and #6 in the AFC with close losses to #1 in the AFC and #1 in the NFC.

This year we have wins over the #3 seed in the NFC and #4 seed in the AFC. That's it. Two losses to #1 in the NFC, one loss to #2 in the NFC, and two losses to #5 in the NFC.
I don't think these two are really that close but perhaps your memory of that time is different than mine... :p
Hmmm. That sounds eerily familiar to 2024. GB losses are to these opponents across 16 contests
14 Wins
13 Wins
14 Wins
14 Wins
14 Wins.
Yes. The difference being that in 2010 we did not have 5 cracks at teams ahead of us in the standings and come up short every time. Look no further than splitting the season with the division-champ Bears.
Sure we did. Then why is it anymore impossible next weekend?
Who is saying impossible?
I would argue that a young team would be better (in general) at the end of the season than the beginning. Meaning trending upwards. So if a team with a 3rd year QB (2010) and veterans everywhere can improve going into postseason, then even more argument that a young team finding their footing can also
Let's set aside Love's early injury. Since returning, how much overall improvement have you seen over the course of the season? How much have we improved compared to the end of last season? Which improvements lead you to believe we're poised to make a meaningful playoff run?

Like I said: I would like for this to be the case but I'm just not sure the evidence and/or body of work is really there.
 

Magooch

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They also lost to three losing record teams, I always remembered that team seemingly to many of the most involved fanbase as a coin toss and no one knew what was gonna happen in the playoffs - we definitely had proven we could beat good teams, but also proven we could drop off against teams we should beat too.
That's kind of what i mean, but the difference is that this season while we have proven we can win the games we "should" win, we have again not yet proven we can beat top teams either
 

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I know we are going to hear 2010-11 run comparisons next week, pretty unavoidable, but the road this year is going to be much harder.

For a 6 seed, ‘10-‘11 was actually about as easy of a road as you could ask for. It was just a down year for the NFC. Philly was about a 50/50 game which went our way.

Atlanta was probably the toughest game on the road but they were closer to a 13-3 paper tiger than a true contender depending on who you asked. We fell just short in their place in the regular season and the rematch was a blowout.

Chicago was a typical team from that era of Bears teams. Good defense with not much offense to speak of. Weak #2 seed. Their road to the NFC Championship game was 1) Beat the 7-9 Seahawks at home.

That’s it.

Probably 3-4 better teams in this NFC field than any of those ‘10-‘11 opponents, honestly.
 

milani

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Oh kinda like Eagles 28 Jaguars 23? or were you thinking more Vikings 12 Jaguars 7? Or maybe Bears 24 Rams 18? Or how about Vikings 30 Bears 27 in OT? Or Washington 18 Bears 15? Or Detroit 23 Bears 20?

Almost Every Great team struggles against low echelon teams. Carolina took KC under the 2-minute Tie score. The following week KC beat the Raiders. The Raiders were winning until 9 minutes left in 4th qtr. KC beat a 4 Win Team with a 4th qtr FG.
Your logic directly implies teams who win close games against low echelon are just bad.
So you are literally using an argument that implies Detroit, GB, KC, Vikings, Rams and Washington are bad. Then The Ravens must be terrible they lost to Las Vegas this year.

Those don’t sound like powerhouses to me. They sound more like 2024 Houston, LA and Seattle level teams.

Hmmm. That sounds eerily familiar to 2024. GB losses are to these opponents across 16 contests
14 Wins
13 Wins
14 Wins
14 Wins
14 Wins.

Sure we did. Then why is it anymore impossible next weekend?
I would argue that a young team would be better (in general) at the end of the season than the beginning. Meaning trending upwards. So if a team with a 3rd year QB (2010) and veterans everywhere can improve going into postseason, then even more argument that a young team finding their footing can also
That is why you have done a remarkable job in the Weekly Predictions Contest this season! A couple of bingos and a high win %. Just like a young team a young player can step up and have an impact!
 
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Let's set aside Love's early injury. Since returning, how much overall improvement have you seen over the course of the season? How much have we improved compared to the end of last season? Which improvements lead you to believe we're poised to make a meaningful playoff run?

Like I said: I would like for this to be the case but I'm just not sure the evidence and/or body of work is really there.
First of all. Love was playing with a bum knee and or groin for more than a month after his return. The first game I noticed where he was moving around closer to normal was post Bye week on Nov 10th. Let’s be real, Love was so hurt he literally crawled off the field and couldn’t make it on his own power, collapsing on the sideline. I don’t consider that a great way to judge a Team.

Since the Bye I think they’ve played very good. A 5-2 record with 4 of the 5 Wins we blew out our opponent with 2+ TD Wins. BOTH losses on the Road by a FG or less to very good teams who are vying for the #1 seed. Basically what you are saying is Detroit and Minnesota only beat a bad GB team twice. It’s really more an

Jordan Love is
10 TD’s 1 INT
214 yards/gm passing
109.4% Passer
28.4 points/gm
17.14 points allowed.
Both good for top 5 in the league. That’s the best D effort since 2010 btw.

ESPN metrics agrees with me. They aren’t Packers fans. They have GB chances of making the Divisional at 54.1%. They also have GB with the 4th highest Offensive Power Index and 3rd Highest Defensive Power Index as of this minute. We did slip from #2 in the NFL last week to #3 this week on our overall strength Index. Only behind Detroit and Baltimore. Some of that is likely our schedule is now known to be one of the hardest in the league in 2024. Our SOS is currently the #2 hardest of playoff teams left behind Baltimore at .555.
 
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That is why you have done a remarkable job in the Weekly Predictions Contest this season! A couple of bingos and a high win %. Just like a young team a young player can step up and have an impact!
Let’s hope I finish strong. I’ll need 1 more Bingo to hang with you!
 
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I know we are going to hear 2010-11 run comparisons next week, pretty unavoidable, but the road this year is going to be much harder.

For a 6 seed, ‘10-‘11 was actually about as easy of a road as you could ask for. It was just a down year for the NFC. Philly was about a 50/50 game which went our way.

Atlanta was probably the toughest game on the road but they were closer to a 13-3 paper tiger than a true contender depending on who you asked. We fell just short in their place in the regular season and the rematch was a blowout.

Chicago was a typical team from that era of Bears teams. Good defense with not much offense to speak of. Weak #2 seed. Their road to the NFC Championship game was 1) Beat the 7-9 Seahawks at home.

That’s it.

Probably 3-4 better teams in this NFC field than any of those ‘10-‘11 opponents, honestly.
I’d totally agree with that. I’d also say after rewatching Detroit a couple weeks ago? we should’ve beat them in Detroit. Upon rewatch We let that game get away at the end and had we won that the entire season talk would go from “these guys can’t best a great team” to we are SB contenders. It’s actually kinda laughable how the sentiment changes over a walk off FG

Every year like clockwork it’s the improbable pathway talk all over again It actually comes from internal fan bases more than outside. As we talk about how the Rams, Tampa or Washington is scary good, those fans are complaining about why their own teams don’t have a chance. I actually (in a weird way) love that we are being discounted by everyone. There is nothing like being a talented Underdog. We’ve already lost, so nothing to lose and everything to gain
 
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Magooch

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ESPN metrics agrees with me. They aren’t Packers fans. They have GB chances of making the Divisional at 54.1%. They also have GB with the 4th highest Offensive Power Index and 3rd Highest Defensive Power Index as of this minute. We did slip from #2 in the NFL last week to #3 this week on our overall strength Index. Only behind Detroit and Baltimore. Some of that is likely our schedule is now known to be one of the hardest in the league in 2024. Our SOS is currently the #2 hardest of playoff teams left behind Baltimore at .555.
And yet by the same metric we are behind both Detroit and Minnesota in divisional odds and behind all three of Detroit, Minnesota, and Philly in odds of making conference championship and making Super Bowl. So again I'd ask: what specific improvements lead you to believe we'd be favored against them (possibly all three of them) once the postseason hits?

I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's *improbable*.

Yes, teams are able to elevate themselves in the postseason, but frankly speaking more often than not this isn't the case. We have a tendency to point to the exceptions rather than the rule. The best indicator of future behavior is...past behavior. The idea that teams will find a "second gear" come postseason is a nice theory, but IMO in actuality - over a sufficiently large sample size I think we find that far more teams play roughly at their same regular-season "level" than are able to suddenly hit their next level once the postseason starts. Like I've said plenty of times now - I hope I'm wrong, and certainly could be, but I don't think that's a particularly likely outcome as it stands. But of course that's why they play the games...
 

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I’d totally agree with that. I’d also say after rewatching Detroit a couple weeks ago? we should’ve beat them in Detroit. Upon rewatch We let that game get away at the end and had we won that the entire season talk would go from “these guys can’t best a great team” to we are SB contenders. It’s actually kinda laughable how the sentiment changes over a walk off FG

Every year like clockwork it’s the improbable pathway talk. It actually comes from internal fan bases more than outside. I have a theory that it’s a self preservation thing, but it’s just a hunch. It’d be funny if the Packers beat Philly at Philly.
I actually in a weird way love that we are being discounted. That just might be the catalyst spark we need. We’ve already lost we’ve got nothing to lose but to just ball out.
I don’t discount us, and I think we could beat Philly. With that said, when I look at the 2010 team and their run, they really had some key impact guys, particularly on defense, to make that run possible.

We just don’t have a Charles Woodson. We don’t have a Clay Matthews. We don’t have anything resembling an alpha WR.

I think Gute has some work to do in the offseason to get to that next level. I think we need that alpha wide receiver like we had with Davante Adams here, and we really really need that impact pass rusher.
 

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Our pass rush is non existent against good teams. Our online can't block against good teams. That's where their problems start. They need better, stronger guys on both lines.
 

adambr2

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Our pass rush is non existent against good teams. Our online can't block against good teams. That's where their problems start. They need better, stronger guys on both lines.
I think they agree with this and have been trying to address it through the draft. Unfortunately, Gute has not been having much success with the early picks on the line, at least not so far.
 

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They rely on the draft too much sometimes. A decent free agent dlineman would help significantly. Same with online.
 

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Our pass rush is non existent against good teams. Our online can't block against good teams. That's where their problems start. They need better, stronger guys on both lines.
I would say you're half right. The pass rush fatrens up against some of the worst offenses but disappears against the top teams leaving the secondary in an untenable situation. I think the o line has consistently played well. Even in the games where the Packers have lost, the O line had kept Love upright. While the running game has slipped in some their loses, much of that is due to playing from behind by big margins. While I think that Cooper and perhaps Wyatt have had spurts of really good play, the rest of the front seven on defense has been a major
 
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the 2010 Jets, Bears, etc were head and shoulders above this year's Seahawks, Rams, Texans and I don't think it's particularly close.
If the Seahawks are so bad, why did it take them a missed FG from going Overtime with the Vikings just recently? Worse yet, if the 10-6 Rams are so bad, how did they beat a 13 Win Buffalo team this December???
You do realize if this happens again the records are out the window. It’s loser go home.
Point is this. Starting next week. All teams start 0-0. Nobody cares what happened in Week 4 of Week 6 or Week 11 or Week 13 etc. all records are out the window. No offense to the 2010 Bears but doing that cross comparison is ridiculous. If I did that I’d offer that the 2010 Bears would be in BIG BIG trouble in 2010 if our 2024 teams popped into the 2010 North Division. Might not even make playoffs. The Bears 334 points scored in 2010 would by far away be 4th in our Division right now. There is exactly Zero chance the 2010 Bears would Win our Division.

So I’d be very careful with what you think you see record wise.I’m 95% sure the rankings today will NOT be the rankings in 3 weeks. That goes for the AFC also. Expect an upset either in the Wildcard or Divisional at latest. It’s rare the Seeding goes smoothly in tournament play. Many times it’s that North Carolina or Texas team that gets knocked off and all the brackets go to pot. When an upset happens it’ll happen very quickly and nobody remembers or gloats on regular season seeding. That #1 or #2 will fade like a fart vapor in a crosswind
 
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Thirteen Below

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This is what really irks me. We had one year with Love where our cap numbers were favorable, then we had to give him his giant payday, now we're behind the Lions and Vikings again. I thought when we unloaded Rodgers, it would help our cap, but that ship sailed quickly. I know we had to pay Love though, we had no real choice. Still irritating. We have the youngest team in football, we shouldn't have a money issue.
But we don't actually have a "money issue".

I'll agree that the numbers sound daunting, but we know the cap is going up in 2025. We're actually in very good shape compared to the rest of the league, but (admitedly) maybe not so much compared to our divisional rivals. According to Spotrac and "overthecap" , the Packers will have roughly $62-63M in cap space going into the season - which includes roughly $15 million in unspent cash that carries over from this year.

According to Spotrac, that's the 11th best cap situation in the NFL. Unfortunately, the 4th best is Chicago ($81M), Minnesota is 5th best ($78M), and Detroit is 8th with $69M.

I'm sure we can expect the GMs in Detroit and Minnesota to use that money wisely, and make themslves stronger, and Chicago... ah, hell, who knows. Poles will probably blow it all signing that punter to a 20 year deal at massive numbers.

The key players in Detroit and Minnesota are mostly older than our own, but not that much. So they'll probably be able to keep their core players together for at least a couple of years. The North is going to be a murderers' row for the foreseeable future.

 

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If the Seahawks are so bad, why did it take them a missed FG from going Overtime with the Vikings just recently? Worse yet, if the 10-6 Rams are so bad, how did they beat a 13 Win Buffalo team this December???
Well, if we are so good, why did it take a blocked field goal to spare us from losing to the bears? We can do this game all day lol.
You do realize if this happens again the records are out the window. It’s loser go home.
Point is this. Starting next week. All teams start 0-0. Nobody cares what happened in Week 4 of Week 6 or Week 11 or Week 13 etc. all records are out the window.
If that’s really the case, why bother having a regular season at all? Surely your body of work matters.
So be very careful. I’m 95% sure the rankings today will NOT be the rankings after 2 weeks. It’s rare the Seeding goes smoothly in tournament play. Many times it’s that Arizona or Texas team that gets knocked off and all the brackets go to pot.
I mean, yes and no. Yes in the sense that it’s rare for every seed/ranking to remain unchanged throughout the playoffs, but… the top seeds still by and large are the ones that end up winning it all. Slightly more than 50% of super bowls have been won by the 1 seed. About 20% by the 2. The same largely holds true for conference championship appearances, and even into the divisional round. Of course there are Cinderella runs (and that’s what we hope for here) but the lion’s share of postseason success has gone to the top seeds by FAR (and how do they get those top seeds? ;))
 

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