Studs n Duds vs The Vikings

[rmontro]

On the other hand with a little more than 2 minutes in the 4th quarter and a 3 point lead we have a 4th and 2-3 yards and on the cusp of a long FG. Longwell was not a 50 plus kicker in January. So Sherman punts. The difference? The Eagles defense was gashed by our running game and exhausted by then. Most likely they could not stop us there unless we have a false start.

Thanks for bringing that game up, now I'm going to have nightmares tonight.

 

[OldSchool101]

Cap analysis of any team, especially ones you aren't familiar with isn't easy. Since it doesn't take much for the teams financial gurus and contract people to change things up and totally change their cap accounting

Sure. I’m just basing it on Loves contract though. Loves Cap is pushed into the future also. It’s nowhere close to his average annual salary. Cap Hits of
2025 $30M
2026 $36M
2027 $44M
2028 $76M (time to pay the Piper)

So my contention is when we are comparing The Vikings and Packers Caps for 2025, Off first glance it appears the Vikings are $15M better next year. Yet only $5M leftover Sunk $$ is on the books at QB for the Vikings. However they have no QB at that number, where GB does have ours accounted for. Obviously that $15m Cap advantage can disappear very quickly if they offer Darnold a bigger contract.

 

[rmontro]

So my contention is when we are comparing The Vikings and Packers Caps for 2025, Off first glance it appears the Vikings are $15M better next year.

This is what really irks me. We had one year with Love where our cap numbers were favorable, then we had to give him his giant payday, now we're behind the Lions and Vikings again. I thought when we unloaded Rodgers, it would help our cap, but that ship sailed quickly. I know we had to pay Love though, we had no real choice. Still irritating. We have the youngest team in football, we shouldn't have a money issue.

 

[tahoebum]

Sure. I’m just basing it on Loves contract though. Loves Cap is pushed into the future also. It’s nowhere close to his average annual salary. Cap Hits of
2025 $30M
2026 $36M
2027 $44M
2028 $76M (time to pay the Piper)

So my contention is when we are comparing The Vikings and Packers Caps for 2025, Off first glance it appears the Vikings are $15M better next year. Yet only $5M leftover Sunk $$ is on the books at QB for the Vikings. However they have no QB at that number, where GB does have ours accounted for. Obviously that $15m Cap advantage can disappear very quickly if they offer Darnold a bigger contract.

The Vikings have the option of franchise tagging Darnold with the end game of getting a first round or high second round draft pick for him. JJ McCarthy could easily be their long term plan and he is on a rookie deal that only costs them $5M/year through 2027. Only the Vikings owner and GM really know what the plan is for Darnold but they are wise enough to get a high draft pick for him if they don’t intend on keeping him.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Um....clearly you didn't read the entire context/post also I didn't say Willis sucks because of Caleb Williams LOL

You certainly did reference Caleb Williams saying you see potential in him. I see tons of potential in Willis this year. Problem is you want to ignore what he's done this year and only judge him based on what he did at the train wreck that is the Titans, which makes no sense.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Sometimes realism sets in and the label some use is mediocrity. Anyone who thinks this team will magically improve come playoff time needs closer examination. Love is very pedestrian lately. Willis might actually fit the offense better if considered.

Love certainly did not take any steps forward this year. Willis throws a beautiful ball. His throw downfield to Reed last week was on of the most perfect throws I've ever seen. Some resident experts here think he's a chump though based on his performance before coming to GB.

 

[tynimiller]

You certainly did reference Caleb Williams saying you see potential in him. I see tons of potential in Willis this year. Problem is you want to ignore what he's done this year and only judge him based on what he did at the train wreck that is the Titans, which makes no sense.

Um....okay now I'm just annoyed but incase you have reading comprehension issues (edited to add: This comprehension comment was uncalled for - yes you frustrated me in your inability to IMO read my post I shared twice with you, but this type of behavior is just not right. For this I am sorry @BrokenArrow) . I'll break down the exact quotes from my post and explain:

My post in response to trading Love and keeping Willis:

"In Madden a ton....in real life, this type of move would require Gute be fired and Lambeau be burned down....just not smart move in so many ways."
Okay, so the Madden expression is due to there being TONS of people that their only real understanding of trades, contracts and salary caps comes from Franchise mode of the game - where things are grossly ignorant. The last part expressing not smart for multiple ways would include but not limited to mammoth fiscal reasons (which Madden would ignore) that GB would have a salary cap hit of over $86Million dollars in dead cap come due. ONLY A FOOL would cause such a move for a QB that is easily top half of the league - even to his haters.

"I LOVE Willis, dude is a HIGH HIGH class character of a man,"
This is an expression which emphasizes someone that appreciates and is a fan of someone, only someone who is being sarcastic would ever do such a gesture and not mean it.


"but he proved in Tennessee he was NOT ready even in the slightest for the NFL..."
Now if you notice this is a past tense expression with the use of "proved" and "was" - speaking to his multiple years in Tennessee and even 3 starts there. Willis looked overwhelmed more often than not, and Will Levis - whom many (myself included) feel isn't an NFL starter or maybe backup - has even done a better job than Willis did. You're talking about a guy that put up a 42.8 passer rating and a 13.3 QBR, abysmal. In short his couple seasons with the Titans illustrated a guy absolutely NOT ready for the NFL behind center - that's not a NEVER but a not ready now.


"and no that cannot all be blamed on the team he was one because I can watch Caleb Williams and see the ability and the potential - Willis did not show the same."
Caleb Williams was brought up as the example to refute the assumed comeback many people will say about Willis's time in TN being solely bad because the team was bad...this just isn't the case. Levis could have been used, but Williams is someone Packer fans are far more familiar with so used him - Williams at times has looked special, made numerous NFL level throws and has an 87.4 passer rating with a 45.5 QBR (still not a great QBR, but almost four times better than Willis).

"Now this year for GB, and not having the pressure of the team being his, it was almost like Willis could go be naturally what/who he is without pressure and he showed a lot more - but if you watch the games he played in he was not asked a lot to make NFL caliber throws;"
Willis played the game plan and made the plays called at a VERY high level - but the game structure and plan were vastly different than a typical NFL gameplan and didn't ask Malik to do many NFL caliber throws or even throws in general. You're talking about a guy that only threw 14 pass attempts against Indy, 19 against TEN and then only 5 against the Jags in a shortened stint with Love going down.

"yes when asked he hit a LOT of them but there isn't anywhere close to enough actionable information to substantiate a move to him over Love."
There have absolutely been a few throws (half dozen or so) that Willis has made that just flat out prove his arm talent is 100% capable at the NFL level this year. Most recently the one completion he had in the New Orleans game was just NASTY good and folks don't realize the arm strength and touch it took. However, many of us who reviewed him as a college prospect at Liberty never doubted his touch nor his arm strength, it was all going to come down to processing abilities at the next level was all.

Willis, as I stated I think has finally had the game slow down, confidence is back and we are seeing the young man with incredible ability in college come bubbling back up. Does this mean he'll go on to be a success story in the NFL - who knows, he still arguably has more bad film than good film in the league out there. HOWEVER, he is absolutely trending towards the good, and I suspect if he keeps answering the bell of opportunity tolls - he is absolutely going to get another chance at a starting job at some point.

Original full quote which I've shared back to you multiple times now:

In Madden a ton....in real life, this type of move would require Gute be fired and Lambeau be burned down....just not smart move in so many ways.

I LOVE Willis, dude is a HIGH HIGH class character of a man, but he proved in Tennessee he was NOT ready even in the slightest for the NFL...and no that cannot all be blamed on the team he was one because I can watch Caleb Williams and see the ability and the potential - Willis did not show the same. Now this year for GB, and not having the pressure of the team being his, it was almost like Willis could go be naturally what/who he is without pressure and he showed a lot more - but if you watch the games he played in he was not asked a lot to make NFL caliber throws; yes when asked he hit a LOT of them but there isn't anywhere close to enough actionable information to substantiate a move to him over Love.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Love had a rather pedestrian season and is the third best QB in the division. You can break his season down into two halves. The first half where mobility limited his ability to deal with pressure and his WR's dropped a ton of passes. The second half when he was healthy. He was much better in the second half but still had accuracy issues, especially with deeper throws. Is Willis better? That's doubtful even with a limited sample size. I'd like to see him play the entire Bear game with the exact same game plan as the Packers would have for Love. This Packers team is going nowhere this season. Might as well try out some experiments like playing Willis the entire Bear game.

 

[OldSchool101]

I thought when we unloaded Rodgers, it would help our cap, but that ship sailed quickly.

It actually did help moving on from Rodgers, but there was really a 1 year delay, this 2024 season it was time to pay up for pushing $$ into the future. I guess you could say that’s the cost off developing a QB for 3 years.
On the flip side, we have what I’d consider a Top 10 QB. As long as we continue to build off what Hafley has started we will be competitive. I still think we’re 1 more good WR and maybe 1 upgrade at OC short of getting into that 30 points/gm. I’d also add a 3rd TE in case 1 goes down again.

I’m here to reemphasize that MN does not have the QB $ on the books and imo Darnold is going to command a sizable contract because other teams will be interested. If he’s worth it idk but he’ll get paid.

I’d rather have middle of the league $$ to spend (Top16) resigning or adding FA and have a Top 10 QB. VS
Top10 $$ and looking for a QB. Just my opinion.

 

[OldSchool101]

This Packers team is going nowhere this season. Might as well try out some experiments like playing Willis the entire Bear game.

While I don’t dispute anything you said, because it’s very accurate up until this bold part imo.
I do look at it from a glass half full.

Now you are certainly entitled to display your opinion. However I’m certainly entitled to disagree with it just the same. I think this whole idea of doom and gloom is just ridiculous. It sounds to me like a disgruntled fan because we couldn’t win the way YOU wanted us to win. We couldn’t beat the #1 and #2 seeds if you will. Teams in all different sports win in the most unexpected and unconventional of ways. That’s part of what makes the sport exciting is it’s not easy to predict at all, even for us experienced fans. You make it sound like these #1-2 seeds beat us by 3+ scores. We should’ve beat Detroit imo. We’re talking the team everyone is just gushing over. They Won AT HOME on a Walk off FG! What’s amazing to me is the announcers replayed this and praised St Brown for his “toughness”. What?! St Brown his Xavier so hard in the face it toppled his helmet 8 yards away. That’s a 15 yard flagrant Flag in any other game I’ve watched. There’s zero chance it gets missed.

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[tynimiller]

This Packers team is going nowhere this season.

Apologies but there is just as much logic saying they ARE going to the SB as there is they are going nowhere. Now of course varying levels of evidence exist pointing to each, but no one with a decent football IQ would state definitively that they are going nowhere. They could for sure go somewhere in the playoffs.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This Packers team is going nowhere this season. Might as well try out some experiments like playing Willis the entire Bear game.

So they aren't going to the playoffs after all?

I thought they locked in a spot weeks ago?

 

[Sanguine camper]

While I don’t dispute anything you said, because it’s very accurate up until this bold part imo.
I do look at it from a glass half full.

Now you are certainly entitled to display your opinion. However I’m certainly entitled to disagree with it just the same. I think this whole idea of doom and gloom is just ridiculous. It sounds to me like a disgruntled fan because we couldn’t win the way YOU wanted us to win. We couldn’t beat the #1 and #2 seeds if you will.

Teams with lower seeds beat teams with higher seeds all the time and in every sport. Now someone will make this “but probability says it only happens 1/3 of the time” or whatever. Probability doesn’t play football games. We are nowhere near the underdog level you are making us out to be imo.

When was the last time a team got swept twice in their division and made it to the SB much less won it? I doubt it's more than once or twice. It's not doom and gloom, its that the Packers fail to win the big games because their top players disappear in those games. Will they all of a sudden take on a new persona and win tough road games against top teams? Seriously doubt it.Lambeau is no help either This pattern of underperforming is as well developed under MLF as it was with MM.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Apologies but there is just as much logic saying they ARE going to the SB as there is they are going nowhere. Now of course varying levels of evidence exist pointing to each, but no one with a decent football IQ would state definitively that they are going nowhere. They could for sure go somewhere in the playoffs.

If they win a SB, it would mean that their best players finally show up in the big games. That hasn't been happening for well over a decade. The Packers have a well earned reputation for choking in big games. Will that trend disappear in the coming playoffs? I see no evidence for that. That's why I give them very little chance to do much.

 

[Sanguine camper]

So they aren't going to the playoffs after all?

I thought they locked in a spot weeks ago?

They slipped into the playoffs mainly beating poor, mediocre or banged up teams. Why do you think the Packers' ability to underperform in big games is going to magically disappear in the playoffs? I'm looking for evidence and what I see is a team where the big salary guy disappear in big games. If they show otherwise, I'll adjust my expectations. For now, it's based on many previous chokes and not on wishful thinking.

 

[OldSchool101]

This pattern of underperforming is as well developed under MLF as it was with MM.

Pattern of underperforming?? I’m not sure if you realize but MLF is one of the most successful Coaches in NFL history. If MLF wins this weekend he will pass Don Shula’s .677 Record (currently tied) to go .680 Win/Loss

Here are the Coaches in 100+ years of NFL history that would be ahead of Matt LaFleur Win/Loss % with at minimum a similar sample of games or more. Do you realize how hard it is to make a Top 10 of any list in NFL history? It’s extremely rare.

Guy Chamberlin (6 seasons) HOF
John Madden (10 seasons) HOF
Vince Lombardi (10 seasons) HOF
George Allen (12 seasons) HOF
Blanton Collier (8 seasons)
Ray Flaherty (11 seasons) HOF
George Halas (40 seasons) HOF
Jim Harbaugh (5 seasons)
Matt LaFleur (6 seasons)
Kevin O’Connell (3 seasons)

 

[Half Empty]

So they aren't going to the playoffs after all?

I thought they locked in a spot weeks ago?

Everything's relative. Like some others, the regular season for many years has been something to sit through while waiting for the playoffs, qualifying for which isn't normally that big a deal. Not winning in the postseason is pretty well defined, for some of us, "by not going anywhere"

 

[gopkrs]

Apologies but there is just as much logic saying they ARE going to the SB as there is they are going nowhere. Now of course varying levels of evidence exist pointing to each, but no one with a decent football IQ would state definitively that they are going nowhere. They could for sure go somewhere in the playoffs.

No crystal ball here but I'm thinking that I'd like to start off against the eagles. They are resting and could come out a little cold. We for sure have to come out on fire the rest of the way.

 

[tynimiller]

Pattern of underperforming?? I’m not sure if you realize but MLF is one of the most successful Coaches in NFL history. If MLF wins this weekend he will pass Don Shula’s .677 Record (currently tied) to go .680 Win/Loss

Here are the Coaches in 100+ years of NFL history that would be ahead of Matt LaFleur with at minimum a similar sample of games or more.

Guy Chamberlin (6 seasons) HOF
John Madden (10 seasons) HOF
Vince Lombardi (10 seasons) HOF
George Allen (12 seasons) HOF
Blanton Collier (8 seasons)
Ray Flaherty (5 seasons) HOF
George Halas (40 seasons) HOF
Jim Harbaugh (5 seasons)

Sanguine is clearly a win SB or you suck type.

 

[OldSchool101]

Everything's relative. Like some others, the regular season for many years has been something to sit through while waiting for the playoffs, qualifying for which isn't normally that big a deal. Not winning in the postseason is pretty well defined, for some of us, "by not going anywhere"

I agree in part. As Packer fans we probably could agree we have slightly underperformed in Postseason considering who we had at QB.

This year is an outlier.

1. The strength of our Division is at a historical level. So if we don’t “go anywhere” it’s as much to do with an unusually hard pathway as it is our ability imo.

2. We are still growing. While our QB might be considered #3 in our Division, it’s only because we have 2 QB ahead with, at minimum, discussions for league MVP.

 

[OldSchool101]

Sanguine is clearly a win SB or you suck type.

Oh I know I’m just pushing back a little to bring him to Earth. Listen, I feel bad for other Packer fans because this is a really tough year competition wise. For me though we are still very young and we are at least competitive with the Big Boys. All we need is to play similar but start a little faster on Wildcard weekend. I think we can at least be a spoiler. I’d be totally happy if we could at least knock the #2 seed off. It would be GLORIOUS if we could End the season for Minnesota or Detroit. A trifecta would be the other team gets knocked off or goes to the SB and loses on one of those 4th down tries or bounces in the pocket too long and pulls a 2009 Aaron Rodgers vs Cardinals

 

[Firethorn1001]

Surprised some of you continue to watch the Packers.

If winning the SB is the only thing that brings you joy then you are going to be hopelessly miserable a lot.

Guess as I've gotten older and have no idea how long I'll be around on this earth I just want as many weeks of meaningful football as possible and this year, there have been 17 weeks of meaningful football (even Bears game has meaning given the seeding) and there will be at least 1 more (hopefully 4..). I think some of you forget how absolutely much it sucks to have meaningful football for 6 weeks then go.. well.. guess I'm waiting for a year.

If not winning a SB diminishes any joy/excitement/interest you had and you feel like the Packers took something away from you well... have fun with that. I used to do that, but no more.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Pattern of underperforming?? I’m not sure if you realize but MLF is one of the most successful Coaches in NFL history. If MLF wins this weekend he will pass Don Shula’s .677 Record (currently tied) to go .680 Win/Loss

Here are the Coaches in 100+ years of NFL history that would be ahead of Matt LaFleur Win/Loss % with at minimum a similar sample of games or more. Do you realize how hard it is to make a Top 10 of any list in NFL history? It’s extremely rare.

Guy Chamberlin (6 seasons) HOF
John Madden (10 seasons) HOF
Vince Lombardi (10 seasons) HOF
George Allen (12 seasons) HOF
Blanton Collier (8 seasons)
Ray Flaherty (11 seasons) HOF
George Halas (40 seasons) HOF
Jim Harbaugh (5 seasons)
Matt LaFleur (6 seasons)
Kevin O’Connell (3 seasons)

The Packers under MLF have continued to underperform in the playoffs under MLF. You judge success by the number of championships otherwise Marty Schottenheimer would be regarded as a great coach. Lombardi said you play the game to win championships. I base my judgement about success on Lombardi. That's a high bar but I'm good with it if Lombardi used it. Right now, I see the Packers as a franchise where getting to the playoffs is good enough.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Everything's relative. Like some others, the regular season for many years has been something to sit through while waiting for the playoffs, qualifying for which isn't normally that big a deal. Not winning in the postseason is pretty well defined, for some of us, "by not going anywhere"

I guess for those fans that think the playoffs are the only way of measuring "Going anywhere", the regular season really must be boring and a major bummer. Do they tune into any of those 17 games or just wait for the playoffs to start?

Did those same Packer fans feel the same way about the 2010 Packers that ended the regular season with a 10-6 record?

Personally, I enjoy all 17 games, as well as the preseason. Entertaining and yeah, if they lose, a bit less, but still entertaining.

Sure, would be fun to win 1-3 playoff games and a Super Bowl, but if the Packers don't, I will still have had 6 months of pretty solid entertainment, despite the fact that "The team went nowhere".

 

[Magooch]

It's probably just a bit in the middle for me. We're better than some of the doom and gloom in some ways, but at the same time also probably worse than some of the hype in some ways too.
On one hand, yes, it's good that our losses have all been relatively close and while we do have five losses, they have all came against arguably 3 of the top 4-5 teams in the league.
On the other hand...out of our 11 victories, only 3 have come against teams with winning records (and 4 wins against teams with less than 5 wins on the season).

Looking at our "floor," we had some ugly games against BAD teams in Jacksonville and Chicago, barely sneaking by them. And I think every team has those sort of games from time to time, to be fair. But we have also shown so far that our "ceiling" is that we are able to hang tough and keep it close with elite teams. The trouble is that as of yet we have not shown an ability to "break through the ceiling" and actually get a win vs any of those elite teams. And to make it far in the postseason, odds are decent that we will need to manage at least two, probably three wins against those teams that we failed to beat once in five regular-season chances (to say nothing of whoever the AFC produces, be it KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, etc)

Did those same Packer fans feel the same about the 2010 Packers that ended the regular season with a 10-record feel the same way as they do now?

I think in general the 2010 team had a stronger body of work despite a worse W-L record. That season we had wins against the Eagles (10-6), Jets (11-5), Giants (10-6), and the Bears (11-5). And our "close losses" that season came against the 14-2 Patriots and 13-3 Falcons. Of course, to speak in our favor, we did ultimately beat those same Falcons (and handily) in the playoffs, after beating the Bears again (who we had split the season series with), and a second win in the wild card over the Eagles. By my count we had at least 4 wins over playoff teams that year, compared to I believe just 2 this year.

Or, to put it shortly - in 2010 there was IMO a bit more reason to believe we could beat some of the top teams in the league because we had already done it that season. This year there is much less evidence to support that kind of belief I'd say.

Now all that to say, it's been a fun season, and I still enjoy watching the games even in seasons that don't end in a super bowl victory, but at the same time for me personally I don't think it's wrong or being a bad fan to think that we have probably already seen our "ceiling" and to not expect much beyond that. Now of course I hope that is not the case and we are able to go beyond that level, but at this point it feels like we're basically playing with house money and any postseason progress is just the cherry on top.

And at the same time, TBH it's not like anything I/we say here is really going to change anything, but while I don't think there's any benefit in constantly sh*tting on the team and acting like we're doomed to failure, there's also no benefit in plugging our ears and pretending there's no problem and that we are totally equal with every other team and there's nothing to complain about. Neither way really does anyone any good IMO. Some could stand to admit that we are playing some decent football, have some decent players, and have put together a relatively successful staff and roster with steady and competent management...and some could stand to admit that we are probably not playing *championship* football right now, might lack for "difference making" players, have often come up short in big games, and aren't always batting 1.000 on player scouting/drafting/recruitment/roster construction, etc. Both can be true (and probably are)