Studs n Duds vs The Vikings

[Firethorn1001]

Stay away from People and the news, if the outcome is THAT important for me not to know.

Doesn't take football for me to stay away from people and the news...

 

[rmontro]

Anyway you cut it, was a ticky-tack call and for me, a very marginal one. I am anxious to see the final stats of penalties called this season. Just a gut feeling from watching more games than I used to, but seems like the refs are dominating the air time.

In some of these close losses we've had this year, the calls have not exactly gone our way.

 

[milani]

I'll give you that the Vikings overall were Superior.... However they didn't dominate the first 52 minutes. The Packers were winning 3-0 after the first period, and the Vikings punted their first 2 possessions in that timeframe.

Right. The turning point was going for it on 4th and 3 instead of kicking the FG.

 

[DoURant]

Right. The turning point was going for it on 4th and 3 instead of kicking the FG.

I'll do you one further, I feel the whole sequence on our 3 1st quarter possessions lost the game. Only getting 3 total points on 3 possessions in Minnesota territory in that first quarter, let them off the hook, and took what would have been a huge start, plus momentum away from us.

 

[OldSchool101]

I would also add "available cap space" as a big influence on rosters in 2025.

If this chart is correct, currently The Bears, Vikings and Lions all have more available cap in 2025 than the Packers. Of course, we know how restructures, cuts, trades and signings can change all of that in one stroke of the pen.

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Good info. Well the first thing that jumps off the page is MN. THE the big change is going to be the Vikings. Sam Darnold is not going to play for cheap $$ after this year. Good chance he gets a deal similar to Love and that could be easily an added $20-40mil more than current cap allocation just at QB alone.

 

[milani]

I'll do you one further, I feel the whole sequence on our 3 1st quarter possessions lost the game. Only getting 3 total points on 3 possessions in Minnesota territory in that first quarter, let them off the hook, and took what would have been a huge start, plus momentum away from us.

And that 3 was set up by their risky 57 yarder that came up short.

 

[OldSchool101]

And that 3 was set up by their risky 57 yarder that came up short.

At the time I liked the aggressive call. As I look back now I go back to what I always say. In a lower scoring game always take the points. If it’s 2nd quarter leading by a score 17-14 etc. go for the 1st down. If it’s 3-0 take the FG.

 

[milani]

At the time I liked the aggressive call. As I look back now I go back to what I always say. In a lower scoring game always take the points. If it’s 2nd quarter leading by a score 17-14 etc. go for the 1st down. If it’s 3-0 take the FG.

Especially now when you have a solid FG kicker. Not sure of the stats but going back to 1964 Lombardi probably should have gone for it on 4th down most of the time considering Hornung missed 27 FGs that season.

 

[OldSchool101]

There's not much to argue about in your ranking. We'll find out Sunday if MN is better than Detroit. I don't think so.

It’s more how they play US. I just felt like we were closer to beating the Lions at Detroit.
As far as overall “who’s the better team” it’s a toss up. I guess we’ll find out soon, this is for the Division title and #1 Seed. Nobody is holding back

I’d say Detroit is the better team when relatively healthy, but I still question their heath. So far, the Lions have masked the D injuries with great O play. The second they stumble on Offense I think they’ll get into trouble as a whole. I think the Vikings are going in with much better health. Either team could represent in the SB and have a good shot at winning.

Vikings and Lions are both 14 and 15 Win Teams. Up until recently both had good Defenses but lately the Lions are winning mostly with a stellar Offense. Reminds me of our 2011 season and I think they’ll get found out in Postseason. Detroit get “found out” in a few days.

 

[rmontro]

Vikings and Lions are both 14 and 15 Win Teams. Up until recently both had good Defenses but lately the Lions are winning mostly with a stellar Offense. Reminds me of our 2011 season and I think they’ll get found out in Postseason. Detroit get “found out” in a few days.

That's crossed my mind also, that the Lions remind me of the 2011 Packers. We had to outscore people, and were very capable of it. Until the Giants held us to 20 points when it really counted. Aggravating.

The Vikings appear to have a better defense than the Lions, at least with Detroit's injuries. If they can slow Detroit done, they have a good chance. But it's in Detroit, so that's in their favor. Honestly, in the game last Sunday the Vikings looked like a team that was very comfortable on their home field, beating a visiting team that wasn't quite so comfortable. And you can't exclude the noise the fans generate when the visitors are on offense.

 

[milani]

That's crossed my mind also, that the Lions remind me of the 2011 Packers. We had to outscore people, and were very capable of it. Until the Giants held us to 20 points when it really counted. Aggravating.

The Vikings appear to have a better defense than the Lions, at least with Detroit's injuries. If they can slow Detroit done, they have a good chance. But it's in Detroit, so that's in their favor. Honestly, in the game last Sunday the Vikings looked like a team that was very comfortable on their home field, beating a visiting team that wasn't quite so comfortable. And you can't exclude the noise the fans generate when the visitors are on offense.

Both teams play in ideal conditions even in January. It appears Detroit is capable of running the ball better than Minnesota. As good as Darnold was against us throwing 43 passes will not cut it in Detroit. Goff and their offense will keep their D on the field longer than ours did.

 

[Heyjoe4]

And even if MN beats them, just means they were better that day. I still think it is a coin toss amongst many of the the playoff teams honestly....if you told me we were gonna see Commanders win two meaning they likely went into Detroit or Philly or MN and won I'd not be shocked one bit.

Well said. By the time the playoffs are scheduled, there are 7 teams that are all pretty close. I also believe the mindset of the team must change during the playoffs. I don't think the win last year in Dallas or the close finish in San Francisco were coincidences, and the Packers were 9-7 going in.

The Packers will play in Philly or at SoFi to start. The games would be equally challenging, arguably more challenging against the Rams because of their momentum.

So I don't make much of the 0-4 record against MN and Detroit, and the loss to Philly. It is a new season, and the Packers can hang with any of the teams in the playoffs.

 

[milani]

Well said. By the time the playoffs are scheduled, there are 7 teams that are all pretty close. I also believe the mindset of the team must change during the playoffs. I don't think the win last year in Dallas or the close finish in San Francisco were coincidences, and the Packers were 9-7 going in.

The Packers will play in Philly or at SoFi to start. The games would be equally challenging, arguably more challenging against the Rams because of their momentum.

So I don't make much of the 0-4 record against MN and Detroit, and the loss to Philly. It is a new season, and the Packers can hang with any of the teams in the playoffs.

I fear Mayfield the most. He torched our defense at Lambeau last year. And with a banged up secondary it can get ugly.

 

[DoURant]

That's crossed my mind also, that the Lions remind me of the 2011 Packers.

They have a great offense, but that defense has been getting carved up with all those injuries.

And you can't exclude the noise the fans generate when the visitors are on offense.

I believe just before the game started, the announcers said that visiting teams have had more false starts penalties in Minnesota this year, than any other stadium in the NFL, crediting the noise factor

 

[lambeaulambo]

Mediocre teams don't have 11 wins with 4 of their 5 losses being within one score and all of them being against 13 win teams. Just stop already.

Sometimes realism sets in and the label some use is mediocrity. Anyone who thinks this team will magically improve come playoff time needs closer examination. Love is very pedestrian lately. Willis might actually fit the offense better if considered.

 

[tynimiller]

No matter what players we like the #1 objective of the Packers is to improve areas of the game that needs to be elevated, through the draft and free agency. Don't make an area of the team better even though it was already pretty good, because that's using cap money to fix something that's not broken.

That's the problem with a lot of GMs. They think they need to have a hundred playmakers, and they don't do anything productive in giving the support they need to succeed. Look at what's happened in Chicago. You'd think they'd understand that investing in offensive linemen who can block might help them win games. But, they'll waste money fixing what ain't broke again.

Yup spending a dumb amount of money on WR would be ignorant mismanagement at the cost of advancing us in positions of much bigger need like CB, and defensive front with center being a sneaky one possibly as well.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Good info. Well the first thing that jumps off the page is MN. THE the big change is going to be the Vikings. Sam Darnold is not going to play for cheap $$ after this year. Good chance he gets a deal similar to Love and that could be easily an added $20-40mil more than current cap allocation just at QB alone.

True on the Vikings and Darnold, but just like the Packers and every other team do, they can backload salaries and not have that much of an impact on their cap limit for a year or 2.

Cap analysis of any team, especially ones you aren't familiar with isn't easy. Since it doesn't take much for the teams financial gurus and contract people to change things up and totally change their cap accounting.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In some of these close losses we've had this year, the calls have not exactly gone our way.

Unless you talk to a Bear fan

 

[Firethorn1001]

Anyone who thinks this team will magically improve come playoff time needs closer examination.

Not like they got boat raced in these games. Literally talking about a handful of plays that if they swing, the outcome swings.

I really don't care about the early season games. September is an eternity ago in football world.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Right. The turning point was going for it on 4th and 3 instead of kicking the FG.

MLF has taken a lot of flack for not going for it on 4th and short. Until recently, he went for it on 4th the least frequently in the NFL. He's criticized either way. I don't have an issue with the call. It's the execution that's the problem. The Lions frequently go for it on 4th and short. The difference is that they're a better team on 4th down. Even if the Packers had kicked a FG and were behind by 14 in the 4th instead of 17, I have no confidence that they could make enough plays to overcome that deficit.

 

[tynimiller]

MLF has taken a lot of flack for not going for it on 4th and short. Until recently, he went for it on 4th the least frequently in the NFL. He's criticized either way. I don't have an issue with the call. It's the execution that's the problem. The Lions frequently go for it on 4th and short. The difference is that they're a better team on 4th down. Even if the Packers had kicked a FG and were behind by 14 in the 4th instead of 17, I have no confidence that they could make enough plays to overcome that deficit.

Yup, the outcry on him now for going vs the outcry for not going is laughable honestly…folks just love to *****

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Here is my theory on "going for it on 4th down, instead of attempting a FG", outside the obvious situations at the end of the game.

- If you have a solid "3rd and short" team, you want to view 4th downs with a lot more lean towards going for it.

- If you are looking at 4th and 3 or more, look hard at your offense and their ability to pick up short yardage.

- If you are facing a solid defense, think really hard.

- Remember, even picking up the 1st down, doesn't guarantee you 7 points (unless its 4th and goal and you make it).

- How sure of a FG kicker from that range do you have?

I understand a lot of teams are now going by "analytics" to make their 4th down choices. However, unless I am mistaken, those numbers aren't derived from the current offense and defense that is on the field that day.

My personal viewpoint of the Packers going for it on 4th and 1+ yards....kick the damn FG. They now have a solid FG kicker, its almost money inside the 45. They don't have a solid history of play calling and execution of 3rd/4th and short. Sunday was a game against a stingy defense, where points were needed and 3 is better than none.

 

[milani]

They have a great offense, but that defense has been getting carved up with all those injuries.

I believe just before the game started, the announcers said that visiting teams have had more false starts penalties in Minnesota this year, than any other stadium in the NFL, crediting the noise factor

Used to be that way in the old Metrodome. Maybe worse. We have had a lot of our false starts at Lambeau this season. Maybe even more than the road.

 

[milani]

MLF has taken a lot of flack for not going for it on 4th and short. Until recently, he went for it on 4th the least frequently in the NFL. He's criticized either way. I don't have an issue with the call. It's the execution that's the problem. The Lions frequently go for it on 4th and short. The difference is that they're a better team on 4th down. Even if the Packers had kicked a FG and were behind by 14 in the 4th instead of 17, I have no confidence that they could make enough plays to overcome that deficit.

He certainly kicked the FG in the 2020 NFC Championship game. But the decision is not the same all the time. If I am playing New Orleans at home e.g. yes. If I am in Minnesota or KC in that situation then kick it. Weigh the defensive opponent, weigh your offense, weigh where the game is being played. It is not all things equal.
One of the worst managed game situations was in the 2003 playoff game in Philly. Ahman Green ran from midfield to the Eagle 5 at the 2:00 warning of the 1st half. He had asthma so he had to come out for a play or two. Sherman opted for a right toss to Bubba Franks. But with Green on the bench and no play action Favre could not connect. 3 more runs and we get stopped. Should have taken the points.
On the other hand with a little more than 2 minutes in the 4th quarter and a 3 point lead we have a 4th and 2-3 yards and on the cusp of a long FG. Longwell was not a 50 plus kicker in January. So Sherman punts. The difference? The Eagles defense was gashed by our running game and exhausted by then. Most likely they could not stop us there unless we have a false start. A first down and the game is over. In the first half they still had juice in the tank. The punt went into the end zone. Sherman thought since our defense sacked McNabb 11 times they could close it out.

 

[OldSchool101]

I fear Mayfield the most. He torched our defense at Lambeau last year. And with a banged up secondary it can get ugly.

I can see that. Although there’s a good chance we get a few starters back in the secondary. Also our Run D forces teams to go 1-dimensional. That’s why our Takeaways are on the higher end #6.