Salary cap thread 2016

[sdh09e44]

I would be extremely disappointed if the Packers bring in Demario Davis. He wouldn't be an upgrade over the inside linebackers currently on the roster.

trevathan was listed first for a reason.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

trevathan was listed first for a reason.

There are several better options than Davis available other than Trevathan.

 

[sdh09e44]

There are several better options than Davis available other than Trevathan.

freeman? Who else ?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

freeman? Who else ?

Derrick Johnson, Rolando McClain, Zach Brown and Craig Robertson (the last two as a coverage LB only) just to name a few.

 

[sdh09e44]

Derrick Johnson, Rolando McClain, Zach Brown and Craig Robertson (the last two as a coverage LB only) just to name a few.

Id rather go fir more of a long term guy than Johnson who is 33. But wouldn't be upset if he signed here.

I think mcclain fired a gun besides a guys head so....hes more of a cowboy type signing...dont see TT going for a guy like that.

and im sure you agree that we might as well go for a guy who wouldn't be a strictly coverage LB. Those last two may provide an impact but we need a starting ilb that isnt one dimensional. Trevathan

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Id rather go fir more of a long term guy than Johnson who is 33. But wouldn't be upset if he signed here.

I think mcclain fired a gun besides a guys head so....hes more of a cowboy type signing...dont see TT going for a guy like that.

and im sure you agree that we might as well go for a guy who wouldn't be a strictly coverage LB. Those last two may provide an impact but we need a starting ilb that isnt one dimensional. Trevathan

I agree that Trevathan is the guy I want the Packers to sign. With the Packers newding a guy capable of covering RBs and TEs Brown and Robertson would be a way better option than Davis though who isn't good at anything.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

He only has to play to earn all of that money though, there aren't any performance based incentives included in the contract.

Every game is tied to a bonus, that's a performance bonus. If Guion isn't any good and the Packers sign someone like Harrison and Guion isn't worth playing, then he doesn't need to be active. My point was that Guion's contract is very heavily incentivized and shouldn't really be any hindrance to signing others.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Every game is tied to a bonus, that's a performance bonus. If Guion isn't any good and the Packers sign someone like Harrison and Guion isn't worth playing, then he doesn't need to be active. My point was that Guion's contract is very heavily incentivized and shouldn't really be any hindrance to signing others.

With his base salary fully guaranteed once the regular season starts I highly doubt he'll be one of the inactives as long as he's healthy.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

With his base salary fully guaranteed once the regular season starts I highly doubt he'll be one of the inactives as long as he's healthy.

Well, his guaranteed salary is $2 million while he gets $50,000 per gameday that he's active. If there's a better player on the roster, why would the Packers want to add another $800,00 to their cap, especially if the other option is simply a better player. The salary cap is about to go up quite a bit so that $2m, while a lot of money, isn't going to be a cap-killer. I'm not saying that the Packers will, or even should, keep Guion inactive, I'm simply saying that Guion's deal isn't so prohibitive that it should proscribe any further moves at NT.

It's very likely that the Packers make no free agent moves at NT; but then again it's more likely than not that the Packers make zero free agent moves at any position based on their history under Thompson. When it comes to discussing what positions will be addressed in free agency, the side that says "no moves made" is generally going to win because I would imagine that, at most, Thompson MIGHT bring in one guy at a starter's salary somewhere on the team.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well, his guaranteed salary is $2 million while he gets $50,000 per gameday that he's active. If there's a better player on the roster, why would the Packers want to add another $800,00 to their cap, especially if the other option is simply a better player. The salary cap is about to go up quite a bit so that $2m, while a lot of money, isn't going to be a cap-killer. I'm not saying that the Packers will, or even should, keep Guion inactive, I'm simply saying that Guion's deal isn't so prohibitive that it should proscribe any further moves at NT.

I would be fine with adding another nose tackle in the draft but don't see the need to spend some more millions on the position in free agency.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

My biggest reservation with Trevathan is just how good is he? He will no doubt command some big $$'s, so signing him means you are expecting similar numbers that he had this year. But were his numbers a result of his talent or the defense he played on? I'm not making judgement either way with this, but its hard not to ignore the fact that even Joe Thomas might have looked like a quality starter on that Denver defense.

 

[Mondio]

My biggest reservation with Trevathan is just how good is he? He will no doubt command some big $$'s, so signing him means you are expecting similar numbers that he had this year. But were his numbers a result of his talent or the defense he played on? I'm not making judgement either way with this, but its hard not to ignore the fact that even Joe Thomas might have looked like a quality starter on that Denver defense.

My thoughts exactly. He thumped in the run game, no doubt about that, but when I watched him in coverage, he was usually trailing too far to be an effective defender and once the ball was caught, they just ran away from him. Is that what we need? I'd love his run defense for certain, but I think his name, coming off that defensive performance teamwise and winning a super bowl is going to result in a big bump in pay for him from someone. Lots of Super Bowl FA's over the years that got paid for being on a superbowl team, not for what they brought to their new team. Makes me nervous. I think he'll get a pretty big contract, I'd rather that money go towards someone big up front instead.

At least that's my initial impression and it's subject to change

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm still hoping Raji is back at reasonable money and the Packers can find his future replacement with a current player or somewhere mid draft. For the most part the D-line played good enough to win last year and this included Raji and Guion. IMO the weakness was at ILB and if this is addressed for 2016, the D will be in good shape. Imagine the Packers D with 2 quality ILB's and Peppers and Matthews playing OLB.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Even just bringing in one quality FA ILB will be a vast improvement. This will finally allow Clay to move back outside and Barrington/Ryan to fill the 4th spot. This also relies on Peppers being back, which I believe he will be.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I agree that Trevathan is the guy I want the Packers to sign. With the Packers newding a guy capable of covering RBs and TEs Brown and Robertson would be a way better option than Davis though who isn't good at anything.

Travathan's long speed is on the slow side. Ryan would beat him fairly easily in a footrace. A healthy Barrington would pass him at around 25 yards as hard as some might find that to believe.

Travathan ran 4.84 at his Pro Day. He might look fast going sideline-to-sideline and in short zone coverage using anticipation and short distance burst, but you're not going to want him running downfield with RBs and TEs in man coverage (unless it's players like the 2015 version of Lacy or Richard Rodgers). And when Capers does run zone, you see (or more accurately don't see) the coverage ILB drop off the screen into the intermediate middle where he has to pick up crossers and releasers coming his way with a head of steam.

As we know, Capers runs a lot a blitzes with man coverage. Packer fans' most acute aggravation with the ILB coverage in recent years comes from seeing them trailing receivers in space, getting outrun across the field, or getting outrun down the sidelines on wheel routes. And that includes Matthews who's instincts are mistuned to the position unless he's blitzing from the middle.

Ryan will be manning one of the ILB positions, so the starting point should be evaluating what kind of player he is and what kind of player will complement him. My assessment would probably surprise some as being counter to the conventional fan wisdom.

In any event, if one thinks Travathan is a 3-down player and an answer to the ILB coverage issues in Caper's version of an NFL defense, they would likely end up being disappointed at some meaningful cap cost.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

My thoughts exactly. He thumped in the run game, no doubt about that, but when I watched him in coverage, he was usually trailing too far to be an effective defender and once the ball was caught, they just ran away from him. Is that what we need? I'd love his run defense for certain, but I think his name, coming off that defensive performance teamwise and winning a super bowl is going to result in a big bump in pay for him from someone. Lots of Super Bowl FA's over the years that got paid for being on a superbowl team, not for what they brought to their new team. Makes me nervous. I think he'll get a pretty big contract, I'd rather that money go towards someone big up front instead.

At least that's my initial impression and it's subject to change

There aren't a whole lot of ILBs that are going to be good in single coverage most of the time. By a "whole lot" I mean there might be half a dozen ILBs in the NFL that are going to be able to hold their own in coverage against RBs or TEs. Most of the time the ILBs are simply playing a zone and if the offense can scheme up the play to put the ILB one-on-one against a RB or TE, then the offense is generally going to win that battle. The issue with the Packers recently has been that the ILBs can't even hold up in covering a zone.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My thoughts exactly. He thumped in the run game, no doubt about that, but when I watched him in coverage, he was usually trailing too far to be an effective defender and once the ball was caught, they just ran away from him. Is that what we need? I'd love his run defense for certain, but I think his name, coming off that defensive performance teamwise and winning a super bowl is going to result in a big bump in pay for him from someone. Lots of Super Bowl FA's over the years that got paid for being on a superbowl team, not for what they brought to their new team. Makes me nervous. I think he'll get a pretty big contract, I'd rather that money go towards someone big up front instead.

Trevathan's (81.9) was the third highest ranked ILB in coverage out of all the unrestricted free agents at the position by PFF behind Derrick Johnson (85.3) and Rolando McClain (83.3). While I agree that their grading system is far from perfect it's the only one available to make such comparisons.

I'm still hoping Raji is back at reasonable money and the Packers can find his future replacement with a current player or somewhere mid draft. For the most part the D-line played good enough to win last year and this included Raji and Guion. IMO the weakness was at ILB and if this is addressed for 2016, the D will be in good shape. Imagine the Packers D with 2 quality ILB's and Peppers and Matthews playing OLB.

Even just bringing in one quality FA ILB will be a vast improvement. This will finally allow Clay to move back outside and Barrington/Ryan to fill the 4th spot. This also relies on Peppers being back, which I believe he will be.

With Thompson for sure wanting to roll over some cap space into 2017 I don´t expect him to re-sign Raji or spend more money on the defensive line after bringing back Guion. Hopefully TT will add a free agent inside linebacker and tight end though, allowing him to use the first-round pick on the position in a very deep group though without having to worry about position of need.

Travathan's long speed is on the slow side. Ryan would beat him fairly easily in a footrace. A healthy Barrington would pass him at around 25 yards as hard as some might find that to believe.

Travathan ran 4.84 at his Pro Day. He might look fast going sideline-to-sideline and in short zone coverage using anticipation and short distance burst, but you're not going to want him running downfield with RBs and TEs in man coverage (unless it's players like the 2015 version of Lacy or Richard Rodgers). And when Capers does run zone, you see (or more accurately don't see) the coverage ILB drop off the screen into the intermediate middle where he has to pick up crossers and releasers coming his way with a head of steam.

I don´t want any of the Packers inside linebackers to cover a RB downfield without any help over the top. Once again, Trevathan pulled his hamstring on the 40-yard dash during his Pro Day, so I don´t put too much stock into that time. He looks for sure better than Ryan or Barrington in coverage.

Ryan will be manning one of the ILB positions, so the starting point should be evaluating what kind of player he is and what kind of player will complement him. My assessment would probably surprise some as being counter to the conventional fan wisdom.

I would be OK at best with Barrington and Ryan competing for one starting spot at inside linebacker but there´s absolutely no doubt the Packers need an upgrade at the other spot.

 

[PackerDNA]

This is the only place I've seen Trevathan's speed and coverage ability knocked. For example, on his list of top 50 free agents, Pete Prisco at cbssports.com praises him for just those things.
Not only a guy I want, but I don't want the Bears getting him.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Trevathan's (81.9) was the third highest ranked ILB in coverage out of all the unrestricted free agents at the position by PFF behind Derrick Johnson (85.3) and Rolando McClain (83.3). While I agree that their grading system is far from perfect it's the only one available to make such comparisons.

A player not asked to work outside his wheelhouse will score higher. It also helps being surrounded by a lot of talent, playing next to Brandon Marshall in particular.

I don´t want any of the Packers inside linebackers to cover a RB downfield without any help over the top.

You need to take that up with Capers. Tell him to rush 4/drop 7. Otherwise, the reality is a heavy dose of blitz/man without enough safeties to go around.

Once again, Trevathan pulled his hamstring on the 40-yard dash during his Pro Day, so I don´t put too much stock into that time. He looks for sure better than Ryan or Barrington in coverage.

Fair enough. However, nfldraftscout included a note: "hamstring pull on 1st. 40/on pace for mid 4.70's", which is not a solution in this scheme. Barrington was a 4.70 runner, and I would point to the Lynch wheel route in the 2014 NFL Championship game as a telling example of the implications in this defense. Or if one wants more recent examples, watching Matthews chase guys into the end zone on a couple of occasions last season should suffice.

It's not just a question of who is better than who; it's a matter of what you can afford and the value-add in the context of the scheme. This is a matter for yet another cap space post, but suffice it to say there is a tendency to overlook last year's players that have yet to be signed or replaced...I'll get to that later.

Ryan showed good development as the season progressed and has better speed than anybody we've seen at the position is quite some time. He showed good zone instincts in his college tape; if his instincts often looked dull then consider the steep learning curve playing in Capers' scheme and in reading NFL offenses, and the fact that when Capers is not zone blitzing his zone scheme is soft. I think Ryan's upside is widely underrated...maybe not a future Pro Bowl-caliber player, but a very solid 3-down player. I'd be looking for a box player/downhill striker. Barrington kinda sorta fits the bill, if not quite.

Assuming Barrington returns to full health, I would not be surprised if the week one starters are Ryan / Barrington. However, I think Thompson should be able to find an instinctual downhill player with college ILB experience (not another of those OLB conversions) who falls to the middle rounds on speed concerns. At this point, it looks like a pretty fair draft to find that kind of guy.

Now, would a Ryan / Travathan combo be an upgrade? Surely. But what are you willing to pay for that? I don't see the cost/reward equation adding up.

 

[Half Empty]

A player not asked to work outside his wheelhouse will score higher. It also helps being surrounded by a lot of talent, playing next to Brandon Marshall in particular.

Real question from a guy who really doesn't care all the much about the topic. The above came after you quoted a comparison of some ILBs. Is there another Brandon Marshall besides the WR?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Real question from a guy who really doesn't care all the much about the topic. The above came after you quoted a comparison of some ILBs. Is there another Brandon Marshall besides the WR?

http://www.nfl.com/player/brandonmarshall/2532898/profile

 

[Half Empty]

Thanks. Guess I knew about him, but the former Bears guy was who came to mind.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Thanks. Guess I knew about him, but the former Bears guy was who came to mind.

The WR BM is now playing with the Jets. I wouldn't mind having both Marshalls (not taking into consideration their personalities) on the Packers, but the former Bear WR isn't going anywhere. Jets paid him $9M last year and he produced: 109 catches, 1,502 yards, 14 TD's. Pains me to compare those to Cobb.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think there's an inclination to forget that certain Packer free agents need to be resigned or replaced.

Let's start with $14.5 - $15.5 mil cap space, practically speaking, as outlined in post #38 in this thread. That number could go up if the actual cap number is higher than $155 mil. However, that cannot be assumed. From a 2016-to-2017 carryover perspective, that $14.5 - $15.5 mil figure could go up from a practical standpoint if the 2016 camp/season is relatively injury free. That's a poor assumption as well.

Conventional wisdom has focused on ILB and TE. Lets consider some other needs:

- OLB: Neal and Perry are FAs. Even with Matthews moving back outside, the bench is left to Datone Jones and just some guys, assuming Jones is not just a guy on his own. Peppers is year-to-year and a FA after 2016. Jones is a FA after 2016. Unless you get a Miller/Mack at the top of the first round, edge rushers take a year or two of seasoning to get to 3-down status. This critical position is highly vulnerable for 2017.

- 2016 OL depth/2017 starters: backup OT is just guys; Sitton, Lang and Bakhtiari are FAs after 2016; they cannot all be re-signed and the bench is bare.

- RB: Starks is a FA with nobody particularly promising on the bench. Lacy is a FA in 2017, with some question as to whether he can regain his speed back to at least 4.6. There is a clear need here.

- PK: Crosby is a FA.

- P: Masthay needs to be replaced

- FB: Kuhn is one of those guys who's value exceeds his cap cost. That's a 1/2 mil over a minimum rookie replacement. The small amounts add up.

- D-Line: Even with Guion in the fold, and a presumptive staring front of Guion-Pennel-Daniels, there's no depth for rotation beyond a gamble on Ringo. Really, it's best to think of the D-Line as requiring 4 "starters" since you don't want these guys going over 65% snap counts if you can help it. Sign Raji eating into the cap, buy a guy, or draft a guy limiting options at other positions.

Besides the 3 starting OLs, Peppers and Datone Jones, the 2017 FA class includes Lacy and Hyde. If Barrington returns as a starting ILB, then he'll need to be paid or replaced. If Pennel is the presumptive NT for 2016 and if he comports himself well, which I expect, he'll be due more than the minimum for a restricted FA.

All of these needs, plus whatever else crops up in the way of injury and age decline, cannot reasonably be addressed in two drafts.

Somehow dumping a bunch of cap space on an ILB who is not a bona fide All-Pro game-changer doesn't add up. Same for the TE position.

Even a few selective re-signings at relatively modest $...lets say Starks, Neal, Crosby...and a Lang extension at some time during the season, that doesn't leave much cap carryover into the 2017 season with several core players that need to be paid or replaced.

Frankly, if Barrington's prognosis is good which I cannot speak to, I'd not be surprised if ILB cap/draft capital is limited to a FA or mid-round pick slated to compete, not start. The Packer offense is WR-centric, and incredibly prolific with the likes of Quarless at TE, I would not be surprised if Thompson banked on his expensive (in terms of cap and draft capital) WR crew bouncing back and limiting his TE expenditure to the 3rd. round or lower.

A draft focusing on O-Line, D-Line and OLB, with ILB and TE in the mid-to-low rounds.

 

[HardRightEdge]

http://www.nfl.com/player/brandonmarshall/2532898/profile

And he's the reason why Travathan is talked about as an available FA in the first place. Marshall's a very fine player and a restricted free agent to boot.