That seems to be the debate of the day after Silverstein post yesterday, which he is now retracting and saying its closer to $8M.
Tom SilversteinVerified account @TomSilverstein
So, in double-checking cap numbers with people who know, the
#Packers were $13M under as of yesterday. Remove about $5M for their draft picks and they're $8M under, not $5M as some have been led to believe.
Whatever it is, they don't seem to have a lot to play with and in order to make many new moves, they might have to cut a player or 2.
There's current cap space and then there is usable cap space, two different things, as Silverstein's draft class deduction illustrates. However, those numbers do not look quite right, and Silverstein has not made other necessary deductions noted below. Let's review:
overthecap shows Top 51 cap space as $13.6 mil while spotrac shows $13.8 mil. The NFLPA shows $15.9 mil:
https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report
The NFLPA is not including either Allison's $2.0 mil because he is tendered and not contracted, or Lewis' $2.1 mil because of a lag in posting new contracts. I'd surmise it is Allison who is omitted because he is not technically a Green Bay Packer, so lets go with
$13.9 mil as the current cap space.
Spotrac shows the Packers' estimated
rookie salary pool as $10.3 mil. However, once those 10 guys are signed they will replace current players in the Top 51. The low picks might not make the Top 51 but close enough to make it a rounding error. Currently, the cap cost of
the current bottom 10 in the Top 51 = $5.8 mil using overthecap's figures.
$10.3 rookie pool - $5.8 mil Top 51 being replaced =
$4.5 mil cap deduction for the draft.
That brings us to $9.4 mil in usable cap space with additional deduction noted below.
The draft pool may be somewhat lower than sportrac's number. I don't think it was updated since the 2019 cap number was announced, and that cap number came in at the bottom of the projected range. Anyhow:
If you're going to deduct for the draft as a necessary future expense then, to quote Ron Popeil, "But there's more!"
That $9.4 mil cap space number is for the Top 51. By opening day it must be 53. Those
additional 2 players will be around $1 mil in cost for a couple of guys at or close to the rookie minimum. The
practice squad is going to be around $1.4 mil if we assume a 6% increase in line with the cap
.
That brings usable cap space down to $7 mil.
If the Packers are telling people they have $5 mil in usable cap space they are not blowing smoke as Silverstein suggests.
My $7 mil figure does not include anything held in reserve for PUP/IR replacements. If Gutekunst is penciling in $2 mil for that contingency, that gets you to his $5 mil usable cap space figure.
To illustrate, if a vested veteran goes on IR sometime between now and opening day, not subject to injury settlement, you need a full season replacement with both players then counting against the cap. If you have spent all the way up to the cap limit, and the replacement is a minimum salary rookie, then you'd have to cut somebody to get $500,000 in cap room. You then need to replace the guy you just cut, and that's another $500,000 in needed cap room if that replacement is also minimum salary rookie.
The numbers go up if you go to the street for a veteran.
So, at that point you have to cut a guy that yields a minimum $1 mil in cap savings. There are only 14 guys currently on the roster who fit that description and you would not want to cut them most of them. Spriggs at $1.1 mil might be is a candidate. Maybe Lane Taylor or Lewis at $2 mil.
And that's just 16 games worth of PUP/IR replacement. It's always more than that, sometimes considerably more, by the time the season is said and done.
So, some number of millions needs to be kept in reserve unless you want to find yourself in a position to cut somebody you'd rather not.
It's easy to say (or maybe not), "cut Lane Taylor", but what if the PUP or IR guy you need to replace is an OG? Or "cut Springs", but what if the guy you need to replace is an OT?
Ergo, going without a sum for PUP/IR replacements would be kinda stupid. $2 mil seems like a minimum prudent amount. I usually use $3 mil in these calculations to be conservative.
If anybody has read this far, please raise your hand. Bueller? Bueller?
