RB situation for us and rest of North

[thisisnate]

What are talking about? Several posters here were calling Montgomery the second coming of Le'veon Bell!

i could name one poster that said tymont is better than bell after starting at RB for one game
this is why i enjoy these forums
never know what you're going to read next

 

[sschind]

I also think that is a by product of the league putting less draft stock into the RB position, in other words, teams are waiting until the 3rd round and later to draft the majority of the RB's.

I couldn't find exact percentages, but just by looking at this chart and using the eye test, it looks like the majority of running backs have been selected in the 3rd round and later. Also, just like most positions, many were complete busts and a few had excellent careers in the NFL.

http://drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

I've looked at that chart a few times. I noticed more RBs were taken in 2017 than in a long time. I know its only 1 year and 1 year doesn't make a trend but could it be that teams are looking at throwing more at the wall hoping to get something to stick. I look at the RBs taken after day 2 starting in 2015 and going back and I don't see too many day 3 guys who have made a big splash and stuck around. Quite honestly I don't see a lot of day 1 and day 2 picks either though so maybe that is why teams are starting to stock up again.

Obviously what make a RB a "good" running back is different for each of us so any ratings based on this list is highly subjective. I may look at a guy and say he was just a guy someone else might say he was pretty darn good. Take Alfred Blue for example, he looked like a great back filling in on those many occasions when Arian Foster was injured but when he got his chance to be the main man he flopped. Alfred Blue was a very good RB for the Texans for what he did for them but was he a very good RB and would I have wanted him to be the main guy on my team? No I would not.

Everything that everyone has been saying about the RB position is true but one thing I took from this list is that if you want to be just fine at the RB position go ahead and wait until day three to fill your roster. Chances are if you take enough players you will find someone who can get the job done. On the other hand if you want your RB position to be something special you might be better served to address it a little sooner. With Aaron Rodgers a just fine running game may be good enough to get the job done but I can't help but wonder what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game could do if the running game was actually a consistent threat.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I've looked at that chart a few times. I noticed more RBs were taken in 2017 than in a long time. I know its only 1 year and 1 year doesn't make a trend but could it be that teams are looking at throwing more at the wall hoping to get something to stick.

I believe that a lot of running backs were selected this year because the draft class was considered extremely talented and deep at the position. I don't think teams are generally trending in the direction of picking more RBs.

With Aaron Rodgers a just fine running game may be good enough to get the job done but I can't help but wonder what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game could do if the running game was actually a consistent threat.

You have to consider that the offensive line is primarily built to protect Rodgers but doesn't excel in blocking for the run, making it extremely tough for a running back to perform at a high level.

 

[Dantés]

You don't need to invest a high pick but IMO the odds are better for you to hit if you do. If you are not going to invest a high pick then you had better invest a lot of low picks and that is what the Packers did. Throw enough at the wall and eventually some will stick. The Packers are throwing a lot.

It's kind of interesting to look at the recent trends for running backs in the first round. Since 2007 (the Peterson/Lynch year), these are all the backs taken in round one:

-Darren McFadden
-Jonathan Stewart
-Felix Jones
-Rashard Mendenhall
-Chris Johnson
-Knowshon Moreno
-Donald Brown
-Beanie Wells
-C.J. Spiller
-Ryan Mathews
-Jahvid Best
-Mark Ingram
-Trent Richardson
-Doug Martin
-David Wilson
-Todd Gurley
-Melvin Gordon
-Ezekiel Elliott

Withholding judgement on Gurley, Gordon, and Elliott, you have 15 guys. Depending on how you view some of them, you're talking about 2-4 that actually returned on investment. 13-27% success rate.

Here are the 2nd rounders over that same span:

-Matt Forte
-Ray Rice
-Lesean McCoy
-Dexter McCluster
-Toby Gerhart
-Ben Tate
-Montario Hardesty
-Ryan Williams
-Shane Vereen
-Mikel Leshoure
-Daniel Thomas
-Isaiah Pead
-Lamichael James
-Leveon Bell
-Montee Ball
-Eddie Lacy
-Christine Michael
-Bishop Sankey
-Jeremy Hill
-Carlos Hyde

That's 20 guys and 4-7 hits depending on how you view some of these guys. That's 20-35%.

And the 3rd rounders:

-Kevin Smith
-Jamaal Charles
-Steve Slaton
-Shonn Greene
-Glenn Coffee
-Demarco Murray
-Stevan Ridley
-Alex Green
-Ronnie Hillman
-Bernard Pierce
-Knile Davis
-Charles Sims
-Tre Mason
-Terrance West
-Jerrick McKinon
-Dri Archer
-Tevin Coleman
-Duke Johnson
-David Johnson

19 guys, 4-5 hits. 21-27%.

It's strange that the first round hasn't had a much larger success rate like at other positions. I really don't know what to make of it. Perhaps it's just an abberation.

But certainly after the top 100, you do see a big drop off in success rate. The plateau only goes so far.

 

[HardRightEdge]

You get a like just for the cliches.

Cliches are sometimes true. It's how they got to be cliches. Did you look at the tape? There's quite a bit out there.

 

[Sky King]

Cliches are sometimes true. It's how they got to be cliches. Did you look at the tape? There's quite a bit out there.

I'm curious. What "tape" source(s) do you have available to you for in-depth review?

 

[Dantés]

I'm curious. What "tape" source(s) do you have available to you for in-depth review?

I can't speak for him, but here is everything I watched after they drafted him.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I'm curious. What "tape" source(s) do you have available to you for in-depth review?

LOL. In this case, go to youtube and type in "Jamaal Williams". There is at least one full game tape, maybe more, so you do not get misled by highlights. That is not the case for many other players unfortunately. You should then be able to see that those cliches describing this player are apt. You'll even see him pass block! That's a bonus.

Or if you want a vetted expert to tell you what you're looking at, then go to Packers.com and watch a Packer scout's comments on Williams, some of which overlap mine.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Alex Green was one of Thompson's worst picks. He was an "in space" player only. He made all his hay in college running delays and draws untouched to the second level. He didn't show any evidence of being physical enough for the NFL. I don't know what they were thinking here. Well, yeah I do. They wanted a 3rd. down back. But those guys still have to run the ball against an NFL front 7. Everybody talks about the step up in speed and athleticism at the pro level. Well, that athletic defensive move comes with a whole lot more punch as well.

If you want to see what a running back can do, watch was he does between taking the hand off and getting to and through the hole. That's where the play is made. After that, if he wiggles through the secondary that's a bonus. If a college back runs through a hole in front of his face that a car could drive through and scampers untouched, that doesn't show anything except maybe speed. You don't get that gift very often in the pros.

Bull. I seen Alex green lower his shoulder on a goal line run where he seemingly knocked out a dt, and a lb. They were both on the ground seized up. It was around minute 5 on his old highlight reel.
He got his knee rolled up while blocking on special teams his rookie year... never was the same.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

i could name one poster that said tymont is better than bell after starting at RB for one game
this is why i enjoy these forums
never know what you're going to read next

Better than bell?
I definitely believe he could be great, and has the same skill set as bell. I compared the two as an optimistic possibility. But better?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Better than bell?
I definitely believe he could be great, and has the same skill set as bell. I compared the two as an optimistic possibility. But better?

Any possibility can be optimistic. Wishing makes it so.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Bull. I seen Alex green lower his shoulder on a goal line run where he seemingly knocked out a dt, and a lb. They were both on the ground seized up. It was around minute 5 on his old highlight reel.
He got his knee rolled up while blocking on special teams his rookie year... never was the same.

Yeah? I just looked at that play. First of all, he didn't even engage the DT. Second, the DB or LB (#36) hit him high and knocked him back and down, but Green had already crossed the goal line untouched. #36 was late but won the hit even if he happened to get his bell rung. The D-Lineman is on the ground from the block.

It's right here at 4:43:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Green was a good receiver, showed good moves in the open field. Not a 3-down RB.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Yeah? I just looked at that play. First of all, he didn't even engage the DT. Second, the DB or LB (#36) hit him high and knocked him back and down, but Green had already crossed the goal line untouched. #36 was late but won the hit even if he happened to get his bell rung. The D-Lineman is on the ground from the block.

It's right here at 4:43:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Green was a good receiver, showed good moves in the open field. Not a 3-down RB.

The dt was engaged in a block, and was sliding down to meet green. The safety, looked like a ilb to me , but at second look. It was the safety....true. either way, he came in like a missile, and ended up face down twitching... the dt was face down not moving... how do you think he got KOd?

 

[gbgary]

those were some monstrous holes green was running through.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

those were some monstrous holes green was running through.

He did great finding the open field, and following his blocks in the open field... gbs offense was a passing dynamo at the time, and I felt at the time that we could use his skill set very effectively. Go all in on the passing attack, and use the rb more in that pass attack... GB drafted Stark's right before that and he was considered the best receiving rb in the draft besides spiller. Even if that was just his opinion, it sounded like a strong one. We also got Franklin, who was supposed to be a good pass catcher...
It's taken us so long to find a good pass catching rb, that we converted a wr!!! Lol

 

[gbgary]

It's taken us so long to find a good pass catching rb, that we converted a wr!!! Lol

yup. he'll be Ahman Green for us this year. he averaged 5.9 yards per carry last year. even if you throw out his longest run (61 yards) he still has a 5.2 average. that's a dream come true. as i said, on page 1 of this thread, the TE situation is going to really enhance the rushing productivity. the rb situation has gone from a disaster to all-set in one off-season. even if there are some injuries in the rb group they have the numbers to get by.

 

[Sky King]

LOL. In this case, go to youtube and type in "Jamaal Williams". There is at least one full game tape, maybe more, so you do not get misled by highlights. That is not the case for many other players unfortunately. You should then be able to see that those cliches describing this player are apt. You'll even see him pass block! That's a bonus.

Or if you want a vetted expert to tell you what you're looking at, then go to Packers.com and watch a Packer scout's comments on Williams, some of which overlap mine.

We'll, I guess an expert doesn't need to draw every drop of blood out of a body to make a thorough diagnosis - figuratively speaking, of course. Ted probably spends hours on YouTube himself.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

yup. he'll be Ahman Green for us this year. he averaged 5.9 yards per carry last year. even if you throw out his longest run (61 yards) he still has a 5.2 average. that's a dream come true. as i said, on page 1 of this thread, the TE situation is going to really enhance the rushing productivity. the rb situation has gone from a disaster to all-set in one off-season. even if there are some injuries in the rb group they have the numbers to get by.

You look at the quality of player we have to take off the field to put kendricks, or Rodgers on the field in a two te set... Cobb, or Adams?!? Seriously... this offense is stacked...

I always admired what stlouis did with faulk. They put 3 great receivers on the field and broke defenses with faulk. He could break you running g it with the field spread thin. And he was ALWAYS open for the dump off... as the wrs were breaking off big chunks..... I want to see Montgomery do that.

With Nelson, Adams, Cobb, BIG BENnett at te, with Montgomery in the backfield.....I simply do not think a defense can stop that without selling out to stop the pass.....and that's where Montgomery can break them.

 

[Dantés]

A lot of people talk about Montgomery being too finesse to play running back, but that fails to account for the fact that Montgomery average 5.1 yards after contact last year. He broke 18 tackles on less than 80 carries.

That YAC number is not sustainable and is partially a function of the low workload. But it certainly would not be attainable by a finesse back. He ran with a lot of toughness.

 

[sschind]

It's kind of interesting to look at the recent trends for running backs in the first round. Since 2007 (the Peterson/Lynch year), these are all the backs taken in round one:

-Darren McFadden
-Jonathan Stewart
-Felix Jones
-Rashard Mendenhall
-Chris Johnson
-Knowshon Moreno
-Donald Brown
-Beanie Wells
-C.J. Spiller
-Ryan Mathews
-Jahvid Best
-Mark Ingram
-Trent Richardson
-Doug Martin
-David Wilson
-Todd Gurley
-Melvin Gordon
-Ezekiel Elliott

Withholding judgement on Gurley, Gordon, and Elliott, you have 15 guys. Depending on how you view some of them, you're talking about 2-4 that actually returned on investment. 13-27% success rate.

Here are the 2nd rounders over that same span:

-Matt Forte
-Ray Rice
-Lesean McCoy
-Dexter McCluster
-Toby Gerhart
-Ben Tate
-Montario Hardesty
-Ryan Williams
-Shane Vereen
-Mikel Leshoure
-Daniel Thomas
-Isaiah Pead
-Lamichael James
-Leveon Bell
-Montee Ball
-Eddie Lacy
-Christine Michael
-Bishop Sankey
-Jeremy Hill
-Carlos Hyde

That's 20 guys and 4-7 hits depending on how you view some of these guys. That's 20-35%.

And the 3rd rounders:

-Kevin Smith
-Jamaal Charles
-Steve Slaton
-Shonn Greene
-Glenn Coffee
-Demarco Murray
-Stevan Ridley
-Alex Green
-Ronnie Hillman
-Bernard Pierce
-Knile Davis
-Charles Sims
-Tre Mason
-Terrance West
-Jerrick McKinon
-Dri Archer
-Tevin Coleman
-Duke Johnson
-David Johnson

19 guys, 4-5 hits. 21-27%.

It's strange that the first round hasn't had a much larger success rate like at other positions. I really don't know what to make of it. Perhaps it's just an abberation.

But certainly after the top 100, you do see a big drop off in success rate. The plateau only goes so far.

Personally I consider a day 1 or 2 pick to be a high pick so when I say if you want to increase your chances of hitting use a higher pick I don't necessarily mean first round. It seems pretty evenly split at around 25% through the first three rounds depending on, like you said, how you rate some of these guys. I just don't think that if your goal is to build a strong running game you wait until day three.

I believe that a lot of running backs were selected this year because the draft class was considered extremely talented and deep at the position. I don't think teams are generally trending in the direction of picking more RBs.

You have to consider that the offensive line is primarily built to protect Rodgers but doesn't excel in blocking for the run, making it extremely tough for a running back to perform at a high level.

It will be interesting to see if the high number of picks continue though if the value of the RB position continues go down as some claim and the shelf life of good RBs continues to decline as well.

I'd say Lacy performed at a high level behind that line for his first two years. I'd take a back like him any day. A healthy motivated nonfat Lacy that is.

 

[Dantés]

Personally I consider a day 1 or 2 pick to be a high pick so when I say if you want to increase your chances of hitting use a higher pick I don't necessarily mean first round. It seems pretty evenly split at around 25% through the first three rounds depending on, like you said, how you rate some of these guys. I just don't think that if your goal is to build a strong running game you wait until day three.



It will be interesting to see if the high number of picks continue though if the value of the RB position continues go down as some claim and the shelf life of good RBs continues to decline as well.

I'd say Lacy performed at a high level behind that line for his first two years. I'd take a back like him any day. A healthy motivated nonfat Lacy that is.

Yeah, that's how I took you. Wasn't meaning to correct you, but just point out an interesting trend.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The dt was engaged in a block, and was sliding down to meet green. The safety, looked like a ilb to me , but at second look. It was the safety....true. either way, he came in like a missile, and ended up face down twitching... the dt was face down not moving... how do you think he got KOd?

The DT dove low off the snap to jam up his hole and a couple guys fell on his head. He was never in the play.

Whether the safety got his bell rung or not, like I said that safety won the contact. He knocked Green back on contact and down to a knee. He just happened to be late and whacked his helmet on something.

Green scored that TD untouched. That was some pretty crappy defense.

I thought Green might make a half decent slot receiver.

 

[HardRightEdge]

We'll, I guess an expert doesn't need to draw every drop of blood out of a body to make a thorough diagnosis - figuratively speaking, of course.

I suppose that's true, though I don't know what it means.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

the rb situation has gone from a disaster to all-set in one off-season. even if there are some injuries in the rb group they have the numbers to get by.

It's way too early to declare the situation at running back all-set as the unit completely lacks experience.

I'd say Lacy performed at a high level behind that line for his first two years. I'd take a back like him any day. A healthy motivated nonfat Lacy that is.

There's absolutely no doubt that Lacy performed at a high level running behind the Packers offensive line during his first two years with the team but you have to consider that he excelled at creating yards on his own. With the team averaging the least yards per attempt before contact in 2016 I'm not convinced the current group of RBs is capable of putting up decent mumbers.

 

[Poppa San]

the rb situation has gone from a disaster to all-set in one off-season. even if there are some injuries in the rb group they have the numbers to get by.

Last year at this time we had sufficient RB numbers also. Then the cutdown to 53 happened and injuries and the story changed.