Packers retaining De’Vondre Campbell

[sschind]

Here's how Campbell's deal is structured. Pretty low cap hits during the first two seasons with the Packers being able to save cap space by moving on from him after only two years.

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The deal for Campbell doesn't include any void years.

As long as Campbell continues to perform at a high enough level, there is no reason to think this contract can't be played out in full as written, just like P. Smith. If he does not perform the dead money isn't horrible and nothing balloons to the point where even if he is playing well he will likely be a cap casualty.

I really like the way this and the P. Smith contracts are done. Whether he felt he couldn't so any better or he is just happy to be here it makes me respect the player a bit more to agree to this. I mean its not chump change so its not like you can praise the guy for a home town discount per se but they made a fair offer, he liked it and he signed. I like that.

One question though, what is with this potential out stuff? Couldn't you say 2024 was a potential out. Couldn't you say any season where the cap savings was more than the dead money was a potential out. Obviously 2025 is more attractive as an out but do they consider a certain ratio when they put that in there or what do they use to decide when the potential out is?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

One question though, what is with this potential out stuff? Couldn't you say 2024 was a potential out. Couldn't you say any season where the cap savings was more than the dead money was a potential out. Obviously 2025 is more attractive as an out but do they consider a certain ratio when they put that in there or what do they use to decide when the potential out is?

It's just an estimation from Spotrac on when a team might be ready to move on from a player based on cap savings. I agree that the first year cap space would be saved should be considered a potential out though.

 

[McKnowledge]

How are we pulling this 2022 hit off???

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Someone is getting released or traded. A player of significance.

 

[tynimiller]

Someone is getting released or traded. A player of significance.

This is old news and is mainly possible due to "cap savings" Rodgers deal did, plus the Preston extension and still a few others like a Jaire extension and Cobb cut will do as well. Comes at the cost of Rasul and restrains potentially signing Adams (sounds like we offered him extension of 23M a year and he refused)...only so much to go around.

 

[McKnowledge]

This is old news and is mainly possible due to "cap savings" Rodgers deal did, plus the Preston extension and still a few others like a Jaire extension and Cobb cut will do as well. Comes at the cost of Rasul and restrains potentially signing Adams (sounds like we offered him extension of 23M a year and he refused)...only so much to go around.

Ok. Let's go. Like I said...*hits and giggles...

I think Rodgers would choose Adams over Cobb.

So Cobb is released.

Lowry gets cut.

Trade Adrian Amos to a team like the Commanders or Titans a for Day 2-3 pick.

Cap Space will 10.35M over the cap.

Extend Alexander (no thoughts on contract yet), but make sure the cap hit is under 10M

Extend Gary (same with contract), make sure cap hit is around 10M

Use that extra savings roughly 10.5-15M in Cap space and...

Extend Rasul Douglas and have him play FS, while also assist in nickel packages.

Douglas gets a 4yr/44M, 20M guaranteed. Manipulate the cap hit.

He is versatile enough to do this, with plenty examples of good production playing full FS for the Eagles in 2018.

It will add another dimension to the defense and may unlock a damn beast in Douglas a la Derwin James.

Also, let me add that Davante Adams saga could drag out a while. I think he wants 30M a year, may settle for 25M; either way he wants the largest guaranteed money for WR ever.

 

[tynimiller]

Ok. Let's go. Like I said...*hits and giggles...

I think Rodgers would choose Adams over Cobb.

So Cobb is released.

Lowry gets cut.

Trade Adrian Amos to a team like the Commanders or Titans a for Day 2-3 pick.

Cap Space will 10.35M over the cap.

Extend Alexander (no thoughts on contract yet), but make sure the cap hit is under 10M

Extend Gary (same with contract), make sure cap hit is around 10M -

Use that extra savings roughly 10.5-15M in Cap space and...

Extend Rasul Douglas and have him play FS, while also assist in nickel packages. -

Douglas gets a 4yr/44M, 20M guaranteed. Manipulate the cap hit.

He is versatile enough to do this, with plenty examples of good production playing full FS for the Eagles in 2018.

It will add another dimension to the defense and may unlock a damn beast in Douglas a la Derwin James.

Also, let me add that Davante Adams saga could drag out a while. I think he wants 30M a year, may settle for 25M; either way he wants the largest guaranteed money for WR ever.

...the fact you're proposing increasing Gary's cap hit to $10M from it's $5M is logic I cannot follow...

 

[McKnowledge]

...the fact you're proposing increasing Gary's cap hit to $10M from it's $5M is logic I cannot follow...

Price to pay with an extension.

 

[tynimiller]

Price to pay with an extension.

You really do just say things with no thought or reason don’t you?

 

[McKnowledge]

You really do just say things with no thought or reason don’t you?

Reading this sentence gave me a headache...

 

[OldSchool101]

Campbell is better than Martinez was and cheaper. I’m ecstatic at retaining him

 

[OldSchool101]

It's just an estimation from Spotrac on when a team might be ready to move on from a player based on cap savings. I agree that the first year cap space would be saved should be considered a potential out though.

See I think you’re looking too far into that. I’m with Spotrac’s determination of not cutting Campbell and paying $9M outright. (remaining guaranteed). Plus then you pay his successor in addition to that. That’s not a “contract out” it’s “contract Hara-Kiri” and it involves dulling the blade first. At least in 2025 it’s a quicker, merciful thought of death

I did however find it strange they had Campbell valued at $6.28m. Where on earth did they get that?
That’s $4M annual less than Blake Martinez last contract

 

[tynimiller]

See I think you’re looking too far into that. I’m with Spotrac’s determination of not cutting Campbell and paying $9M outright. (remaining guaranteed). Plus then you pay his successor in addition to that. That’s not a “contract out” it’s “contract Hara-Kiri” and it involves dulling the blade first. At least in 2025 it’s a quicker, merciful thought of death

I did however find it strange they had Campbell valued at $6.28m. Where on earth did they get that?
That’s $4M annual less than Blake Martinez last contract

So Spotrac will always in their market value page show 3-5 comparable age and production guys contracts they're deriving that from in their formula.

The issue with it is Campbell's production level was soooooo much higher than what he has done over the years it is going to undershooot his contract. That is the only gamble in this deal is can he be close to that again or does he come down to earth a bit...and if so how much.

 

[OldSchool101]

So Spotrac will always in their market value page show 3-5 comparable age and production guys contracts they're deriving that from in their formula.

The issue with it is Campbell's production level was soooooo much higher than what he has done over the years it is going to undershooot his contract. That is the only gamble in this deal is can he be close to that again or does he come down to earth a bit...and if so how much.

I saw that. But those guys weren’t really good comparables either there at Spotrac
Jayon Brown might crack a top 25 list, barely. He’s the closest at #80 in solo tackles (Devondre is #5)

AJ Klein is #29 is PD
(Campbell is #17)

Other than I guess Eric Wilson was tied for #38 in FF
(Campbell tied #8)

Nobody else is even close on that list. Although I did see Spotrac’s uses the 2020 season also. Maybe they average it all out? I still think 2021 should be weighted more

Our guy is top #20 in every conceivable list from recent 2021
#5 solo
#20 assists
Tied#16 PD
Tied#5 INT
Tied#13 FF
Tied#17 FR

Campbell is all over the place good and he’s highly underestimated. He’s probably got a true market of $12-13M Imo

 

[tynimiller]

I saw that. But those guys weren’t really good comparables.
Jayon Brown might crack a top 25 list, barely.

Again though you have to look beyond the one INCREDIBLE year Campbell had last season. You're talking about a guy that literally couldn't even find a suitor in the first or second wave of Free Agency.

 

[OldSchool101]

Again though you have to look beyond the one INCREDIBLE year Campbell had last season. You're talking about a guy that literally couldn't even find a suitor in the first or second wave of Free Agency.

True We have to consider long term consistency.
That said “recent” success should be weighted and also “schematic” success. Provided the specific DC remains intact.
Another thing is overusage is not a positive. Just like at RB you lose value if you’ve been highly used at that position for more than 4-5 seasons. The same argument that can be positive for a guy like Martinez? may also draw long term concerns. Overusage and risk of injury etc especially at LB.
LVE (Dallas) is a recent example

 

[tynimiller]

True We have to consider long term consistency.
That said “recent” success should be weighted and also “schematic” success. Provided the specific DC remains intact.
Another thing is overusage is not a positive. Just like at RB you lose value if you’ve been highly used at that position for more than 4-5 seasons. The same argument that can be positive for a guy like Martinez? may also draw long term concerns. Overusage and risk of injury etc especially at LB.
LVE (Dallas) is a recent example

I'm sure they didn't want to go into the weeds too much on their formulas for calculations is all. Getting into placing weights and such on formulas for such a wide data set is just too tough to do.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm sure they didn't want to go into the weeds too much on their formulas for calculations is all. Getting into placing weights and such on formulas for such a wide data set is just too tough to do.

Not for me and you it isn’t Tyni.
What are they lazy!?

Nah all kidding aside. I’m elated we got him I think $10m is a very fair deal. Campbell is worth that $$.

If we can go after another DL that can get some positive early career production and get J’aire back in the regular lineup I think we can sneak into that upper top #10 Defense list. Obviously we need better fortune on the injury front this season.

 

[tynimiller]

Not for me and you it isn’t Tyni.
What are they lazy!?

Nah all kidding aside. I’m elated we got him I think $10m is a very fair deal. Campbell is worth that $$.

If we can go after another DL that can get some positive early career production and get J’aire back in the regular lineup I think we can sneak into that upper top #10 Defense list. Obviously we need better fortune on the injury front this season.

Just use Christian Kirk agent's calculator LOL

 

[OldSchool101]

Just use Christian Kirk agent's calculator LOL

Not to detract too much. But the Jags are trying to give Trevor Lawrence some continuity which I respect. These players are pretty much all getting paid nowadays. I guess in comparison to his peers Kirk is a few million high. Jags had the extra $3m per season to lock him down I guess

We’ve got our core positional guys like Campbell locked. We have the ability to build up off of last season. What’s going on with Mercilus? Is he healthy again? I wouldn’t mind giving him another cheap offer but with some nice incentives if he stays on the field and performs.

 

[tynimiller]

Not to detract too much. But the Jags are trying to give Trevor Lawrence some continuity which I respect. These players are pretty much all getting paid nowadays. I guess in comparison to his peers Kirk is a few million high. Jags had the extra $3m per season to lock him down I guess

We’ve got our core positional guys like Campbell locked. We have the ability to build up off of last season. What’s going on with Mercilus? Is he healthy again? I wouldn’t mind giving him another cheap offer but with some nice incentives if he stays on the field and performs.

I have a suspicion if Mercilus is healthy he is one hundred percent on Gute's minimum radar for sure.

 

[sschind]

How are we pulling this 2022 hit off???

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Sorry if someone already said this

The total money he will get in 2022 is 15 million which includes the signing bonus. His cap hit is much lower as Captain linked to.

It's just an estimation from Spotrac on when a team might be ready to move on from a player based on cap savings. I agree that the first year cap space would be saved should be considered a potential out though.

That's what I figured but when you look at most of them they are written that way. I guess the first year of a potential out doesn't often save much money so when you look at what it would cost to replace him with a comparable player its not really an out, its more like a swap.

 

[OldSchool101]

I have a suspicion if Mercilus is healthy he is one hundred percent on Gute's minimum radar for sure.

He would push the need down at #3 OLB some and give us a more immediate answer. Obviously that would also narrow the positional needs in the draft. Which, in turn, would allow us to focus on other positions.

 

[OldSchool101]

Sorry if someone already said this

The total money he will get in 2022 is 15 million which includes the signing bonus. His cap hit is much lower as Captain linked to.



That's what I figured but when you look at most of them they are written that way. I guess the first year of a potential out doesn't often save much money so when you look at what it would cost to replace him with a comparable player its not really an out, its more like a swap.

Yes. That’s exactly what I was eluding to.
A common mistep is we forget to add the replacement player in the equation.

 

[tynimiller]

He would push the need down at #3 OLB some and give us a more immediate answer. Obviously that would also narrow the positional needs in the draft. Which, in turn, would allow us to focus on other positions.

I suspect such a signing may wait till after the draft and how it falls for Gute....but likewise one could say such a signing frees up the board some as the weight of need is lessoned.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

See I think you’re looking too far into that. I’m with Spotrac’s determination of not cutting Campbell and paying $9M outright. (remaining guaranteed). Plus then you pay his successor in addition to that. That’s not a “contract out” it’s “contract Hara-Kiri” and it involves dulling the blade first. At least in 2025 it’s a quicker, merciful thought of death

That's what I figured but when you look at most of them they are written that way. I guess the first year of a potential out doesn't often save much money so when you look at what it would cost to replace him with a comparable player its not really an out, its more like a swap.

I'm not advocating for the Packers to release Campbell after only two seasons. My point is they could if he struggles based on the way the contract is structured.