Packers at Texans (Sun, 10/25 - 1pm)

[HardRightEdge]

In any case its not so much "vegas" as it is the betting public that determines the line. How that goes over peoples heads still is confusing.

However, they set an opening line before anybody has placed a bet. To my earlier point, they set that line in anticipation of how the betting public will lean, not by some objective assessment of how it will play out. Then they move it as the bets roll in.

 

[jon]

Im pretty sure vegas doesnt set odds based on 'their hearts of hearts' or drunks in a bar..lol.

In a sense they do. The book has no interest at all in who wins. The line is the number of points needed to balance the amount of money coming on both teams. Strictly speaking, nobody sets the line; everybody does. It happens as a lot of people bet with their hearts, an unreasonably high confidence in their knowledge of the game, and (probably) blood alcohol levels. Crowd sourced odds, you could say.

 

[Dantés]

The Packers should win this game.

However, the Texans have a really talented offense, and Watson is playing really well.

They are also catching them at the wrong time-- it seems like they may play better/looser with BOB gone.

On the road, against a good quarterback, nothing is guaranteed. The offense better have its act together.

 

[Pugger]

The Packers should win this game.

However, the Texans have a really talented offense, and Watson is playing really well.

They are also catching them at the wrong time-- it seems like they may play better/looser with BOB gone.

On the road, against a good quarterback, nothing is guaranteed. The offense better have its act together.

Some Texans fans at Football's Future are saying they won't be able to harass Rodgers like Tampa did so they aren't too confident.

 

[lambeaulambo]

I dont like this press how MLF has YET to lose 2 in a row...It could easily happen, and eventually will.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

I dont like this press how MLF has YET to lose 2 in a row...It could easily happen, and eventually will.

I`m so wary of this game thankfully I wont be able to watch.

 

[Dantés]

Some Texans fans at Football's Future are saying they won't be able to harass Rodgers like Tampa did so they aren't too confident.

I’m sure they won’t. But I could see the game being a shootout.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Aaron Jones calf injury. Game time decision. Apparently it's mild.

 

[Dantés]

Aaron Jones calf injury. Game time decision. Apparently it's mild.

Downside: Aaron Jones is a really important piece of the offense.

Upside: It would be helpful to the FO to see a game or two of this offense without him in it.

I'm sure we'd all like to see more of Mr. Dillon.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Ridiculous quote from a coach #7,543: MLF says he trusts Dillon to do everything that Jones does. Jones has 93 touches this year, Dillon has 13. Methinks MLF is peddling some bullsh*t.

 

[jon]

Ridiculous quote from a coach #7,543: MLF says he trusts Dillon to do everything that Jones does. Jones has 93 touches this year, Dillon has 13. Methinks MLF is peddling some bullsh*t.

Maybe he's trying to show the back up he has confidence and high expectations in him.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Maybe he's trying to show the back up he has confidence and high expectations in him.

Obviously. I was just pointing out the silliness of listening to coaches.

 

[Do7]

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[Pugger]

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What the heck is wrong with Ervin's wrist? I wonder if he broke it...

 

[Do7]

What the heck is wrong with Ervin's wrist? I wonder if he broke it...

Yeah these injuries coming out of left field are concerning.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

David Bakhtiari has been ruled out for tomorrow's game vs. the Texans. He didn't make the trip to Houston.

 

[Do7]

David Bakhtiari has been ruled out for tomorrow's game vs. the Texans. He didn't make the trip to Houston.

I mean we SHOULD be ok, but this is concerning nonetheless

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Dexter has been brought up. I think this means Aaron doesn't play.

This could be AJ Dillon's time to shine.

update: Jones officially out.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

update: Jones officially out.

According to Tom Pelissero Jones is still a game-time decision.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Plus the pressure is on to stay ahead of Chicago.

Just for the record, the Packers are currently behind the Bears in the standings.

So far this year, away teams are 43-47-1 for an 0.478 record. Away teams averaged 0.9 fewer points per game than home teams.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trend/win_trends/is_away?range=yearly_2020

For comparison, here's the 2019 data:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trend/win_trends/is_away?range=yearly_2019

In 2019, including playoffs and excluding London games and the Super Bowl, away teams were 122-136-1 for a 0.473 record, a neglible difference. To illustate, move one loss and the tie to the win column and you get 0.479, very close to this year.

Surprisingly, away teams scored only abut 0.1 fewer points per game than their opponents on average.

A few takeaways:

If the only variable from 2019 to 2020 is the absense of crowds, that's worth about 0.8 additional points for the visiting team with a negligible difference in win percentage.

Actually if I understand your numbers correctly it seems that home teams benefit from not having crowds in stadiums this season, scoring an additional average of 0.8 points compared to visiting clubs.

 

[lambeaulambo]

I`m so wary of this game thankfully I wont be able to watch.

why am I not surprised by this? lol Go get your nails done.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

why am I not surprised by this? lol Go get your nails done.

See you at the salon

 

[lambeaulambo]

If Jones is out it is GO TIME TO UNLEASH THE BEAST!! Dillon is going to surprise the hell out of all of us I think.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

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LOOK INTO MY EYES ! STRAIGHT INTO MY EYES ! NOT AROUND MY EYES, DEEP INTO MY EYES !!!

Last week did not happen, last week DID NOT happen. All is good...

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Just for the record, the Packers are currently behind the Bears in the standings.

Until tomorrow when they get wrecked by the Rams lol